So the guy has been walking around Vancouver for a week? Ironic how everyone now looks like a potential carrier. It would be so much easier if people developed spots or a tick or something.
Moscow targets Chinese with raids amid coronavirus fears
“Moscow officials ordered police raids of hotels, dormitories, apartment buildings and businesses to track down the shrinking number of Chinese people remaining in the city. They also authorized the use of facial recognition technology to find those suspected of evading a 14-day self-quarantine period upon their arrival in Russia.”
'“Conducting raids is an unpleasant task, but it is necessary, for the potential carriers of the virus as well,” Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said in a statement outlining various methods to find and track Chinese people the city approved as a virus prevention strategy."
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-russia-china-1.5473035
Some of the world's biggest economies are on the brink of recession
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/23/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html ==========================The ECB Is in For a Coronavirus Shocker
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ecb-coronavirus-shocker-183607860.html =======================Economic impact of coronavirus outbreak deepens
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/23/economic-impact-of-coronavirus-outbreak-deepens ===========================Coronavirus puts global recovery at risk, IMF tells G20
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/24/business/economy-business/coronavirus-puts-global-recovery-risk-imf-tells-g20/#.XlL4Q47YrnE
=======================
Hong Kong Companies Have No Safety Net in Fight for Survival
Hong Kong is being threatened by a “Tsunami-like” cataclysm, the city’s finance chief has warned, as the new coronavirus devastates businesses already hobbled by months of anti-government protests. The financial hub’s lack of a bankruptcy process will only exacerbate the pain.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-23/hong-kong-companies-have-no-safety-net-in-fight-for-survival
================
With Gold Surging, Miners Face Payouts Versus Production Dilemma
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-surging-miners-face-payouts-133000410.html
Nordicjack, just ask yourself how valuable a condo becomes once people fully understand the danger of living in close quarters with one another.
Is there really much difference between a cruise ship and an apartment complex when it comes to using common areas like the front entrance, stairwells, elevators and hallways?
Condos could become unsaleable.
Private home prices could rise though for that same reason. But farms and country homes could actually fall in value if the Chinese experience is anything to go by.
The reason is checkpoints and road closures. Once out of the city you may be unable to return very easily and while that sounds great to preppers it would discourage the average person who is not ready for isolation and no supply lines.
The other thing is employment numbers are going to take a big hit as this pandemic develops. No income equals no buyers. On the contrary, sales will rise as homeowners try to escape debt.
Supply and demand will dictate what happens next but I can tell you I am not in the mood to buy anything in such an unstable environment and I suspect many others will be thinking the same way.
It looks like we will finally see debt deflation, economic slowdown leading to recession, falling consumption, rising unemployment and risk adjustment by lenders.
That means bank rates will go up to account for an environment of rising defaults. And that will take place regardless of what the Fed Funds rate is posted at.
It is also likely and predictable that borrowing will tighten as well so that in itself will put the brakes on auto sales, home buying and business expansion. The charts warn rates will start to creep up and what typically follows is the prices of assets like housing will fall.
This next year or two will be a whole new experience for a lot of people who have never seen an economy contract.
It appears this is not a new case but rather the person who came from Iran. Obviously a plane transfer in Montreal en route to Vancouver, and the associated spread risks that would go with that.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6586274/covid19-air-canada-vancouver-montreal/
https://twitter.com/LakeComoExpat/status/1231703169484427264
https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2020/02/23/coronavirus-a-bertonico-mancano-tamponi-la-denuncia-del-sindaco-del-comune-nella-zona-rossa-segnalate-carenze-anche-a-codogno/5715159/
You can translate using this:
https://www.google.com/search?q=translate+italian+to+english&rlz=1CAHKDC_enUS870&oq=translate+italian+to+english&aqs=chrome…69i57j0l7.11139j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
We put colloidal silver in our large humidifier in our great room area and also one in our bedroom. Having your own generator to make it is a bonus as well. They aren’t that complex or expensive.
Get yourself a small nasal sprayer and 2-3 shots per nostril per day should do the trick.
www.directive21.com The Berkey Guy, Jeff Gleason, had the best prices on bulk colloidal silver when we purchased it many years ago. There are many great products on his site as well including everything Berkey you would need. Sign up for the Monday newsletter. Always reasonable pricing and great service. An occasional screaming deal as well. A few years ago I bought a couple cases of Tattler canning lids on close out for just over 1/2 price. Check it out.
To those of you that can food. Tattler is the way to go…only reusable lid that I know of. I’d also be ratholing Ball lids as well. Don’t get caught with a 500 jars and no lids.
First its all relative. Though you could hardly call it appreciation when its actually relative to inflation - when your home costs less than car or the refrigerator that is in it. then perhaps things will appreciate as you say. The cost of tv is less than the cost of service in one month mind 1 year… And that is just madness - however <I have been saying that needs to change. Also, I was not speaking specifically about condos, as these are really bad real estate investments. Mostly due to the fact that maintenance is costly and the HOA do not control costs , very much like the govt. landscape companies abuse HOAs , I have first hand experience. There is many other things that affect that as well that has the cost of a condo near zero… When the dues are 1200 per mo. And the mortgage 800, we will have a problem. And we do. That will self correct when the mortage is 4000 and dues are 1000. But, never the less. when your toilet seat costs 150 instead of the whole toilet costing this… The value of things must go up… and all things relative. The way all our grandparents became rich ( everyone I know grandparents) they bought property early when they could buy a house at 25000, ( 1971 ) and by 1981 it worth 75000. and wages by the 80s were sufficient to pay a 75000 mortgage, while people who purchased 10 years previous were burdened with a 25000 mortgage. My step grandfather bought a piece of lake front property for 3000 in 1957 and when he died in 1991 it was worth 300,000 ( 100 fold) my parents held the property from 1991 until 2018 about the same 30 years , and sold it for the same 300,000. Real estate used to build wealth even in a bad market a home would double every 17. years with no improvements. Then the housing crash came - OMG homes were oversold and over priced and properties went up too fast. No on ever said that in the 70s and 80s… we had stagnation in the 90s. and when we caught up everyone freaked out… But was worse is that the housing was not close to over-sold - it was still undersold. First it needed the correction, second, the homes had great improvements. The new homes that doubled in prices from the previous 5 years. were not the same new home. The average home went from 1800 sq ft to 2800 sq ft while finishes became high-end as well… carpet became hardwood, linoleum was replaced by marble or ceramics, firmica counters were replaced by granite and particle board became solid cherry and maple. Additionally , older homes were remodeled where owners invested at least 50k plus sweat equity, just to sell their homes at 75k more. The housing bust was the fleecing of the american wealth by the powers to be the 1% , It was by design.
Second, do not cash in your Roth or IRA or 401Ks or any other tax deferred retirement account but do try to build a portfolio (include physical precious metals) outside of them as well. Many folks here got worried back in the time of the financial crisis, cashed out their retirement accounts (with the ones under 59 1/2 taking a big penalty) and, truth be told, if most were honest with themselves, wound up regretting that decision when they missed out on a lot of big gains in the stock market.If you were meaning my recommendation they get out of stocks and bonds in their Roth, and go to what I called a "guaranteed fund", I wasn't suggesting they cash out the Roth. You are correct that would subject them to a huge tax bill. My 401K is managed by John Hancock. Among the various stock/bond ratio options they have, is one which invests in a stable value option. It invests in the New York Life Guaranteed Interest Account. The information on it is here: https://nb.fidelity.com/public/workplacefunds/summary/GADQ?fundId=GADQ&planId=95378 Its a group annuity which acts like a bank CD. Because I was close to retirement, I moved my balance out of stocks and bonds to this option, because I didn't want the risk of a serious market downturn costing me a big chunk of it, without any time to make it back. Now if I was 20 years younger a portfolio of 90% stocks like Buffet recommends might have made sense. Approaching retirement it doesn't. Nor does being large on stocks, even Value stocks make sense if you think there is a large chance of a serious market correction. I happen to think the September stuff with the repo market was a good indicator that we are due on this year. I would have moved out of stocks then if I was younger. I'd definitely move out of them now. Its not just the health concerns that worry me, but the economic concerns expressed by Chris in his videos. Supply chain issues and now the bigger problem, there may be no small or midsize Chinese companies to make stuff in 2-3 months. Millions of Chinese Firms Face Collapse If Banks Don’t Act I agree you can't time the tops and bottoms of the market, but you can see general trends and know when the risks are too high for you. I wouldn't have any investment in the markets right now. If it gets to the United States in even half the way its gotten to China, I doubt many small companies here can survive 2-3 months of no revenue either.
I wasn’t referring to anything you said in particular. In fact, I’d have to go back and read what you said because I don’t recall. I just wanted to warn Alexis against closing out any retirement accounts at her young age. I agree the risk in the market is high. That’s why I recommended she dollar cost average getting into it. But the risk in the market has been high for years and the central banks just keep propping it up and taking it higher and higher, defying reality. It seems to be the only game in town for the cash/bonds/stocks crowd to get some yield and also for most other countries. Capital has been flooding into our stock market from all over the world and is continuing to do so. As overpriced as it would seem to be, it has a very good chance of going higher yet, a stumble or two here and there notwithstanding. Also, the ETF produces a decent dividend so that helps out as well in a downturn.
New York Life is a solid company where it is unlikely you’ll lose principal but do you know why? It’s Rothschild owned. If it comes down to you and them, in any kind of dispute, who do you think will win? That being said, I’m just not a fan of annuities. Ken Fisher, in a book that I recommended here a while ago, is one of many very savvy financial people who presents a compelling case against them based on research, data, and financial mathematics. I look at them and see all those multiple layers of risk. You have both John Hancock and New York Life involved for starters. Then you have to consider the fixed income securities that New York Life is invested in. Also, if something goes south with that investment, how easy is it to exit your position? Annuities have lots of overt and covert fees and charges, especially when you try to get out of them. If it acts like a bank CD, is it insured like one? Then you have to ask yourself the question, “How do they maintain stable value?” There’s a rule with investing that goes something like, “Never invest in anything unless you fully and completely understand how it works and can explain it clearly and completely to someone else.” If you’re able to do that, fine. If not, you may want to re-evaluate the wisdom of being in that investment. I’ve gone to a few free dinners offered by firms pushing annuities. Talking to some folks there who were invested in them, not a single one could satisfactorily explain how they actually worked. That’s not good. So, if you don’t mind, I’ll pose that question to you and await your answer.
Some other points I made were to develop a portfolio outside of qualified accounts and also to buy some precious metals. So the 90% in stocks would only be in the qualified account and wouldn’t be 90% of her entire portfolio. Obviously, one has to factor in age, risk tolerance, and proximity to retirement, at least two of which are substantially different for you than for Alexis.
I understand what you are doing for yourself and it mostly makes sense. But consider where you are on the hierarchy of people who will get their money back if just one layer in those multiple layers of counter party risks fail. I’ll tell you … dead last. Bankruptcy’s a bitch. You can’t get blood out of a rock. I’ve been burned several times by small scale bankruptcies from parties who owed me money. It’s not fair but it’s all part of the money game and if one is going to play, one has to assume some risk. No one wins 100% of the time.
I agree that the economic concerns of this situation are enormous but I also guarantee you someone is going to be making money. It’s crisis situations like this that present rare opportunities.
With regards to the stock market, I’m not a fan myself at the present time but I’m also retired. I have all the capital I need. I could be invested 100% in cash and between Social Security, rental estate income, and interest, never touch my principal and live a comfortable lifestyle with overseas travel a few times a year, which we like to do. Alexis, on the other hand, is much younger, can afford risk, and needs growth.
I’m sure you’ve watched the markets since the financial crisis and even watching them since the tech stock boom, they’ve often seemed wildly irrational. As the saying goes, markets can stay irrational far longer than you can stay solvent.
I didn’t think you and I were disagreeing.
ao and dtrammel: Thanks gentleman for the finance discussion and recommendations. I appreciate you both spending your time on my situation. Great advice!