Meanwhile, people here on this blog act like they are super informed and ahead of the curve. Yet they are still traveling to and fro, asking others for advice like it will make a difference if things go tango uniform. Maybe it is in their mind that then they can blame someone else for their bad decision if shtf. Who knows? It can’t happen to me is a rampant belief these days.Actually I'd disagree with you Bill. Those of us following Chris and Adam's work here are very informed and ahead of the vast majority of people out there. You can see it in the comments of people like MarkM and Sparky1. They know the risks and are planning accordingly, as well as asking the people they run into what they plan for. No one is looking to blame others. What is prudent in my opinion is we know when to make the decision to quarantine and when its not yet time. You could go ahead and close your doors today, but then if it takes 3-4 weeks like I expect before the virus hits my city with anything above single digits, you risk using up your supplies and resources too early. You may not be able to resupply when the general population realizes the problem, nor when the real supply crunch from closed Chinese companies empties state side warehouses. Someone who got in a life boat and launched one day early on the Titanic, ended up sitting in the middle of the Atlantic all by themselves. That doesn't increase your chance of survival much.
Here is a link to the planning document called Department of Defense Global Campaign plan for Pandemic Influenza and Infectious Diseases 3551-13
https://www.governmentattic.org/8docs/NORTHCON_CONPLAN_3551-09_2009.pdf
https://www.marines.mil/Portals/1/Publications/MCO%206220.1.pdf
Interesting/concerning to note, we are already at Stage 4 as described in this document, “First human case in North America”
From a quarantine group in San Antonio. I wonder how long before a case is confirmed “in the wild” and not from one of the quarantines.
https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/15th-case-of-coronavirus-in-u-s-confirmed-in-texas-patient/2310541/
Long story short:
Tamiflu likely not helpful for coronavirus infection given its 80% similarity to SARS.
There have been no studies specifically looking at Tamiflu and Covid-19, and likely will never be given the fact Tamiflu is not effective against SARS either and they are so genetically similar.Tamiflu is a neuraminidase inhibitor effective in stopping influenza viral replication. Influenza and corona viruses are different viruses altogether.
Tamiflu/neuraminidase inhibitors have been tested a least twice that I can see for their efficacy against SARS, and were shown to be ineffective. Some of the interferon based medications were helpful though.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18400797
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15200845
Tested were 19 clinically approved compounds from several major antiviral pharmacologic classes: nucleoside analogs, interferons, protease inhibitors, reverse transcriptase inhibitors, and neuraminidase inhibitors. Complete inhibition of cytopathic effects of SARS-CoV in culture was observed for interferon subtypes, b-1b, a-n1, a-n3, and human leukocyte interferon a. These findings support clinical testing of approved interferons for the treatment of SARS.
Tamiflu may help relieve symptoms of the flu however.Target, Best Buy could be hit by supply-chain disruptions because of coronavirus
Target Corp. and Best Buy Co. Inc. could be among the first U.S. companies to take a direct hit from the coronavirus outbreak as concerns grow about disruptions to supply chain networks in China.
Although existing inventories are strong at most of the nation’s big-box retailers, analysts from Wells Fargo warn that shoppers could start seeing empty store shelves as early as mid-April.
“We believe the time to start to worry about the supply chain risk ... is here,” the report said.
http://www.startribune.com/target-best-buy-could-be-hit-by-supply-chain-disruptions-because-of-coronavirus/567819212/I am a retired dental hygienist and reading your post I could feel the pain of your dilemma. I apologize for my feeling of relief knowing I am out of that danger as a retired professional and knowing you and others have to face this. There will be no perfect moment to say, “Doors are closed and you are out of work.” BTW, I practiced for 52 years, two countries and four states. My brother is a dentist and I have two sisters who are hygienists. We are all retired now. Together we did about 200 years of service to the profession. We practiced in the golden years it looks like. We went from bare hands to infection control as it stands today. This is a whole new chapter.
Well , it appears that the last 3 US victims all quarantined, show how many people really have this. And they are still asking if this can be spread from person to person… This is in the wild in USA - and its spreading like a small fire.
Wow, BillL, I couldn’t disagree with you more!
You said, “…people here on this blog act like they are super informed and ahead of the curve. Yet they are still traveling to and fro, asking others for advice like it will make a difference if things go tango uniform. Maybe it is in their mind that then they can blame someone else for their bad decision if shtf. Who knows? It can’t happen to me is a rampant belief these days.”
The PP tribe is a pretty diverse group, and many of us are trying to be better informed about this virus. Most of us are trying to be better informed in general about the “three E’s” and the world we live in. That’s why we joined PP.
I haven’t seen any evidence that anyone here considers themselves to be “super-informed” and therefore “ahead of the curve” such that we’ll be insulated from this pandemic and its impacts.
Yeah, we’re still “traveling to and fro” as most have jobs, family and community commitments, and personal interests and aspirations. In doing so, we take reasonable precautions as we weigh day-to-day necessities against a growing yet poorly defined threat. This is a dynamic, rapidly unfolding situation and we make adjustments as needed based on informed and constantly updated assessment.
Of course we’re asking and considering perspectives (not necessarily advice) from others within this knowledgeable and experienced PP community. Most of us are actively seeking information about the virus and related concerns, sharing and discussing what we know and raising questions about what we don’t know. And most acknowledge that there’s a lot we don’t know about this virus. But having information, knowledge and skills; and making appropriate changes and preparations before a potential crisis hits will indeed improve one’s chances to weather the crisis. Additionally, being informed and prepared will put us in a better position to help our loved ones and others.
Most people here take personal responsibility for their own well-being, and learning and being a part of the PP community furthers that quest towards resilience. No blame-culture or head-in-the-sand “it can’t happen to me” thinking here.
You joined PP about a month ago. Welcome! Perhaps you should look around the site, read many more of the articles and comments and keep an open mind. You may change you opinions when you get to know us a little better.
I just read an article comparing this to h1n1 I thought something useful was there when i began to read it. However, it was the same garbage of total ignorance. Really appalling igorance. First, let me say, when the H1N1 flu came out - I do not recall thinking this is the death of the nation. I know I didn’t prep. And I know i did not think it would affect the supply chain and economy. I wasn’t concerned with how many died either. What did concern me is who was dying. Under 50s - not the usually elderly and infirm. The whole cytokine storm thing. Anyway, regarding the article - it was the same focus on numbers - OMG it infected 60M americans and killed 18000 that year worldwide… OH the horror… that is less than 1/40th of a percent. !! I am stunned that people are completely unable to compartmentalize the differences here. They see these large numbers but have no ability to see what is really happening. ( something like how many are serious cases ( vs total infected ) and the that a lot more people are dying from a smaller subset. They are waiting for someone to tell them it killed 30 million people before they go oh gosh… is this a problem… without thinking and rationalizing. I think one should read the author definition of both of those terms. I know people are dumb , but how do people have the ability to get jobs that puts them in this position if they are such morons… that , I dont get… oh yeah. their bosses are just as dumb.
Being stranded is a valid concern. During the last Icelandic volcano eruption one of my team from Hungary was stranded when planes shut down. Ended up taking a train into Russia and a LONG bus to Hungary.
We learned two things - 1) communicate your location - he gave both me and his family updates whenever he changed route or conveyance - phone text and company computer text. Company paid the communication bill - local connectivity is neither free nor good.
2) We should have had a plan for that. We knew it was possible when he left the US. If I had it to do over, we’d have looked at the land routes from his first EU landing place AND we would have been monitoring flight diversion so if he landed somewhere else, we could have a couple of options ready for him.
So, from every landing spot on your air route know: where is the closest US embassy/consulate, what are a couple of land routes to a safer place, how likely is the border to close (based on history).
then monitor conditions on PP as you travel.
If you should need help, ask for it. We all have connections in EU that we can offer depending on where you are.
I can hardly agree with you more DTrammel. Stay out of hospitals and clinics! From everything I have been reading over these past few weeks the single biggest risk we face when it comes to becoming infected is contact with other sick people in hospital wards and waiting rooms.
For too many people, their ingrained habit is to run and see a doctor for every little cough or ache and complaint.
But this is one time we must think very seriously before we get into a lineup for testing just to make ourselves feel better.
Let’s get that message out to people. There is going to be tremendous pressure on the entire medical system. We should not be using it unless it’s absolutely necessary over the coming months.
It is much better to self diagnose. Sniffles, coughs and even fever do not normally kill healthy people. If our symptoms are familiar (we have all had flus and colds before) then let’s leave the emergency room chairs to the people who really need them.
We will be doing our families and friends a huge favour by NOT bringing home Covid19 acquired simply because we just had to go to the hospital to get checked.
I think it depends upon your local situation which I hope you can track. When that Brit imported COVID-19 from Singapore to France I think it indicated community transmission in Singapore, something the PM has addressed, since there was no apparent chain of infection.
For example the metro Vancouver situation has 4 cases. The first, a frequent traveller to China, returned from Wuhan and tested positive Jan 28. The second, a local resident tested positive Feb 3, her two house guests from Wuhan subsequently tested positive. Our Provincial CDC says a low barrier has been used for testing and 264 persons have tested negative. So these cases have not established foci of infection and all four are said to be recovering at home, under observation. The exact location of these cases has not been given but I suspect there is good chance they are in my community of 60% Chinese Canadians.
On Jan 31 I was at a local poker table for 2-3 hours sat next to someone who had returned from Shanghai on Jan 28. He said it was deserted. I’ve been monitoring myself but my winter snivels have not worsened, my cough is better and I have no fever.
As the Westerdam illustrates fear is a major concern, not that one should not be prudent. So learn as much as can about your local situation and in the end it’s a personal choice.
I like good conspiracy theories.
So China was preparing a bio weapon with the corona virus.
They vaccinated silently their population.
But this causes the cases to react violently to new infections.
Hunt on for ‘patient zero’ who spread coronavirus globally from Singapore
“Everyone assumes it was a delegate but it could have been a cleaner, it could have been a waiter,” said Paul Tambyah, an infectious diseases expert at National University Singapore. He added it was “very important” to find “patient zero” to establish other possible “chains of transmission”.
But time may be running out.
Singapore health ministry’s Kenneth Mak said the government will continue to try and identify the initial carrier until the outbreak ends, but as days pass it will get harder.
“We might never be able to tell who that first patient is,” Mak said.
I’m not sure what you’re reading, watching or who you’re hanging-with, but you certainly have a dismal view of people.
The gap between the “have’s” and the “have-nots” has grown enormously in the last few decades, and by design to do so to benefit the 1%. And the middle/working-class are becoming impoverished, struggling to cover inflationary food, energy, housing, medical, child care and education costs. And yes, sometimes they will drag their “sick asses to work” because they are laboring under crushing debt, most of them just trying to survive and provide for their loved ones. Actual purchasing power of the dollar is down to pennies (about 3 cents) while wages remain stagnant.
Nearly a third (about 95 million) of all US adults are not in the workforce, but not included in the farcical unemployment calculation. Many of these people would like to work, but are unable to do so because of health conditions, disability, child or family caregiving responsibilities, lack of jobs/job skills, or other reasons. Social Security, Disability, Unemployment, food stamps and other government subsidized income amounts are barely enough to live on. Yes there will be people who “game” the system, as there are in any system, but the vast majority are not. (Eligibility requirements are actually quite restrictive.) So you’ve updated the myth of the welfare queen to be 2020 beneficiary of the earned income tax, cashing her “welfare” tax refund check, dressed to the nines with kids from multiple fathers in tow. Its still a myth.
BillL, you might want to get out more and open your eyes, mind and heart. You might find the view is different than when looking down from your lofty, self-righteous perch.
From now on, when you leave your house, or decide to show up at a medical facility, are you and your household prepared to be swept into a quarantine situation? It doesn’t seem yet, that other than international travelers are being forced into a 2 week stay courtesy of the US Army. And ankle bracelets are not yet put on those told to self quarantine at home.
Reports: Kim Jong-un executed North Korea official who used public bath while in coronavirus quarantine
https://nationalpost.com/news/kim-jong-un-executes-north-korea-official-who-used-public-bath-while-in-coronavirus-quarantine-reports
Coronavirus: South Korea’s 28th patient casts doubt on 14-day quarantine
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/coronavirus-south-koreas-28th-patient-casts-doubt-on-14-day-quarantine
Africas largest airline, Ethiopian Airlines, is refusing to curtail flights into China despite pleas from President Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya.
All major African airlines have already suspended flights in line with the major Western and European Airlines but landlocked Ethiopia instead relies on the advice of the World Health organization (WHO) to keep trade and air corridors open.
As reported on this site yesterday in a link (hospital beds per capita by country), Ethiopia has the lowest number of hospital beds per capita in the world with only .25 beds per 100,000 people.
That country is possibly at the highest risk of any in the world due to its cultural way of burials of relatives. Normally the sick are attended by entire families both inside and outside hospitals. Deceased family members are returned to the home the day of the burial and family members prepare the body themselves.
Transmission rates of Covid19 can therefore safely be assumed to run on the high side for co-infection. Furthermore, funerals and last goodbyes typically entail large social gatherings running for 40 days at which time every neighbor, friend, coworker and distant family member visit the family of the deceased to pay their respects.
It is a recipe for disaster.
https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/ethiopian-airlines-resists-pressure-cancel-flights-china
You won’t catch me asking anyone’s advice in a situation like this in an open forum. I collect my own info from various sources and devise my own plan. Much of it in my community because that is where I live, some from the web.
I think/see things much differently than you or the others do. Just bringing things to light that I have observed ( In the one month that I have been here)
I am able to appreciate what is offered @ PP. I am no stranger to the works presented here. I have been living this life since 2004. It is way of life for us, always will be and we also own/run 2 successful businesses. I know exactly what is going on here. It just seems odd to me that with all of the peak oil speak going on here that simply saying “that it’s my job”, or “I need a vaca” makes it ok to continue to travel all over Gods green earth.
Wife and I actually talked about doing the PP deal in California a couple years ago. Being that we grow nearly all of our own food (on a site that most would say impossible) I would love to tour the Singing Frogs Farm. Love to go on a wine tour, hang out with like minded folks. Just couldn’t convince myself to travel into the Peoples Republic of California. There were some items on my safety check list that my ocd couldn’t cover…so we spent the money on a beautiful greenhouse that is an extremely tangible structure in our food production process and my wife loves it.
Let me share a different point of view. I’ll ad that my only new years resolution was to throw out the pc bs. So I will be direct.
The practice of globalism has brought this all about. Peace brother and all.
Going to leave this Clif High take on the current coronavirus. Clif is out there a bit but a very smart man…skip to about 21 minutes to cruise by Bitcoin Ben. There are other Clif High vids out there, one I posted on another link here yesterday that was on Clif’s channel. www.youtube/watch?v=6PUYBd-zm3l
The one yesterday was a must watch, he goes thru all the points a scientist would use to determine IF it is a weaponized virus…over a 3 year period.