In this week’s episode Paul and I cover the Fed’s predicament. They can only do one of two things:
Save the bond market
Save the dollar.
Naturally, they are going to save the bond market which means they are going to ‘toast the dollar’ which means lots more inflation is on the way.
People who do not see this coming, and who do not take steps to protect their portfolios, are going to face a very difficult future.
Meanwhile, the stock ““market”” appears to have gone insane again, either due to those mysterious “animal spirits” or because the Fed is heavily manipulating it. Either way, it makes no fundamental sense at the present.
Tune in for this week’s romp through all things financial and integrity-related with Chris & Paul.
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I’m not the best historian but how long do people think it is between when the elites give up on the fiat and when you need a wheelbarrow to pay for a loaf of bread?
I’m wondering about the timing/sequencing of the actions to come.
Say, might the other places die first, like Japan, and Euro-land? Money has been leaving the Euro for the past month, and fleeing Japan for the past 3-4 months, maybe longer.
ECB had zero rates for a decade. Japan had this for 30 years. These add up to some massive unrealized losses on bank balance sheets.
Money - leaving EUR, fleeing JPY, moving (somewhat) into the buck, and maybe also into gold-n-silver.
The process of societal/economic/financial decay can go on for some time still.
Everyone is looking after their own self-interests.
We all see the elephants swaying and swinging their trunks, but the butterflies are where the real “cascade” event can be triggered. [ think hedge funds/Family offices/dark pools… there are thousands of these with many trillions of unregulated and invisible existences]
I am getting to a place, thinking, that the Effetes put Trump in as the Proximate cause, and blame the “Evil Orange Man”, for the collapse of faith in the system.
Putin: “There’s no one in the West that you can trust anymore.”
Since Money is based upon Trust, Inflation is going to get very Bad?
“Whom the gods wish to destroy…… they first make mad.”
Isn’t this quote from Shakespeare? I never enjoyed reading Shakespeare in high school which is probably unfortunate. Believe it or not, I thought that Shakespeare’s writing was stilted. True story….,
I’ve skimmed the article and most of it is one “financial modeller” talking his opinions about what might happen, with a bit of extra info provided by an analyst from EY, finished off with a dose of “look what Liz Truss tried to do in the UK” nudging.
V.
Edit to add: The media here has been rabidly anti-Trump / pro-Biden since day one, so we can expect more of the same as the US election gets closer.
This is my forecast too. It is worrisome that Biden’s not even out campaigning and no suitable replacement is in sight. I think the Dems are looking around at their swiftly-dwindling options and coming to the conclusion that throwing this fall’s election and then setting lots of little fires in the lame duck months might be a good strategic move. If they do, it’ll get out of hand. These things always do.
But yeah, they’ll also torch the dollar to save the bonds. I’m not sure how that’ll work out down at my penny-ante financial level, however I’m betting it’ll at least be uncomfortable.
I just ordered a couple more tubes of silver yestersay evening.
Next weekend we are going down to check the BOL and plant some crops to let them grow wild, cut some trees back, put a gravel pad for our camper etc.
The rest is trying to pay off all the bills, freeze dry meat like its going out of style, stock up on freedom seeds and take care of our garden at home. We are also making sure we are in decent physical shape and good dental health. I am
Not sure what else we can do at this point but we will keep prepping as much as possible until the end.
@davefairtex I think it might be possible that if a major fiat falls in the next 10 or less years, we may see several fall together or shortly after one another.
CHATGPT has a different value for the US National Debt.
I asked ChatGPT the following question:
Since the national debt was estimated at 20 trillion, list the year when the national debt increased by 1 trillion until the present time
ChatGPT Response
Here are the years when the United States national debt increased by approximately 1 trillion dollars from 20 trillion to around 31.8 trillion:
2017: The national debt surpassed 20 trillion dollars in September 2017.
2019: By early 2019, the national debt had increased to approximately 21 trillion dollars.
2020: In mid-2020, the national debt reached around 22 trillion dollars.
2021: By mid-2021, the national debt had risen to approximately 23 trillion dollars.
2023: In early 2023, the national debt surpassed 24 trillion dollars.
2024: As of mid-2024, the national debt stands at approximately 31.8 trillion dollars.
These milestones reflect the ongoing accumulation of federal debt over recent years due to budget deficits and government borrowing to finance expenditures and obligations.
The value is different from the 35 trillion mentioned in this video. No matter the actual value you can see from the dates when the bend in the hockey stick of the national debt occurred. It took 2 years to increase the debt by 1 trillion in 2017. It took 1 year to increase another trillion in 2019. Another your in 2020 increased the debt another trillion. Same in 2021 and 2022. Since 2023, the bend in the hockey stick took place, according to CHATGPT the US National Debt increased by roughly 8 trillion.
I think we have passed the point of no return. The US dollar is on the path of extinction.
Brett Johnson tweeted “ What many don’t seem to realize is that the world is using a form of money (the Eurodollar) that NO ONE can control. The US has obvious influence, but it is still largely beyond their grasp. The biggest issue is that this non state currency has been loaned into existence in the tens (if not hundreds) of trillions but is convertible to the domestic USD supply at par. That is why the dollar rises when the music stops playing. And that is why the dollar has not inflated away despite all the bailouts, all the stimulus programs, the QE policies and the Helicopter money.”
How does this equate with “dollar or bonds”?
I keep thinking of Zappa’s prediction “The illusion of freedom will continue as long as it’s profitable to continue the illusion. At the point where the illusion becomes too expensive to maintain, they will just take down the scenery, they will pull back the curtains, they will move the tables and chairs out of the way and you will see the brick wall at the back of the theater.”
I often wonder if I’m not grasping the Big Picture correctly and is the Fed the “Suicide Bomber” that Brandon Smith predicts? Is the mission actually all about deconstructing the U.S?? We’ve already lost our sovereignty and reverted back to a British colony with the establishment of the Federal Reserve back in 1913 becoming joined at the hip with the Bank of England. There are a great many in the elitist cabal aka Bilderbergers/WEF/Carlyle Group that seem to be getting their ducks in a row to weather a great calamity, they’ve squeezed almost as much blood out of us turnips as possible. There can be no doubt that the collective West has/is, for one reason or another, become a leper, very nearly a pariah.
"“We are now at that stage again where price inflation tied to money printing is clashing with the stock market’s complete reliance on stimulus to stay afloat. There are some that continue to claim the Fed will never sacrifice the markets by tapering. I say the Fed does not actually care, it is only waiting for the right time to pull the plug on the US economy.”
At the time I received a lot of resistance to the idea. The usual argument was: “The fed will never raise rates and put stock markets at risk. Why would they destroy the golden goose?”
This position showcases a common misconception about the central bank and its purpose. You see, a lot of people think the Fed exists to keep the US economy afloat, and specifically to keep stock markets afloat. This is incorrect. Every single policy of the Fed since its inception has been a long train of abuses designed to slowly and scientifically whittle down the US economy and bring it to the point of extinction"
And then we have this increasing demand for MOS -31e’s on the heels of these Cop Cities, FEMA Camps, etc. - “The demand for Internment Resettlement Specialists is on the rise, with the Army and Army National Guard actively recruiting for this critical role”
The Birth of the Euro bond really originated in the 50s as the Current Euro zone (less the eastern bloc countries) accumulated American Debt and used their Dollar denominated assets to lend dollar denominated loans.
This grew over the decades and spawned higher and higher leverage in European Banking circles.
Hence the American banks lent dollar denominated loans (mostly with US gov as guarantor) with leverage, and The Euro zone banks continued to lend their Dollar denominated assets (Treasuries) on even higher leverage levels.
When the Fed handed out swap lines (like candy) to many allies and especially the Euro area (NATO) they were enabling countries to support their massively overleveraged and “short on Dollars” allies.
Do you wonder why all the NATO countries are LAP DOGs of their American masters… to the detriment of their populations??
usdebtclock.org has it at $34.8 Trillion - the derivatives + unfunded #'s are mindblowing, obviously beyond what is manageable, mathematically impossible to paydown, as is the 34.8
It seems like a lifetime ago but I used to argue stuff like this on the Globe And Mail finance comments and people were baffled at how stupid I was to think that our system wasn’t entirely designed around finance.
I would try to show evidence that in the early US, farmers and business owners were perfectly able to self-finance without bank lending and I was told that it was pretty econ-101 that without bank lending there is no economy.
I feel like the zeitgeist has changed a bit but I wonder now what response I’d get for arguing that we shouldn’t let banks have total ownership over the economy?
