I like the following phrase a bit better: “Peak affordable oil”. Is it not true that higher oil prices are eventually reflected in the price of consumer goods, which then has the potential of playing havoc with household budgets? If we get to your “much higher price” faster than household income can rise (which is related to economic growth and GDP), then real people will increasingly be faced with foreclosure, homelessness, and/or going very hungry.
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Care to share those facts with us?
The facts I have come from the USGS whose assessment of total remaining resources in CA are about…zero:
That makes CA having decidedly less oil than TX, by a LOT.
Of course, if you’ve got better facts, let’s have them!
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We could have a 1,000 years worth of oil but what good is it if people can’t afford to buy it? We got a preview of a scenario during the Covid lockdowns. Oil was worthless and the oil producers were literally giving it away as no one was buying the stuff because they were all at home.
As Michael Ruppert said in his Movie, “Collapse” when the price of oil gets to the point where people can’t afford it, forget about it, it stays in the ground.
https://money.cnn.com/2005/06/22/news/economy/oil/index.htm
In this 2005 CNN article, experts were saying that $100 oil was on the way. Guess what? In 2008 we felt the effects of what oil priced at a litlle over a $100 p/b looks like. It nearly collapsed the global economy if not for all the government bailouts. It gave us the GFC. Here’s a timeline chart. The bottom line is that Industrial Civilization “needs” cheap energy and in this case, oil because nothing has been introduced to fully replace it. And keep in mind that when demand for the product drops, it hurts oil producing nations who rely on the revenue stream from sales and taxes generated.
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Perhaps you are right Russ. No one has a crystal ball regarding prices. The crude market has always bounced between over and under supply or boom and bust. We are adequately supplied today. But expect we soon will be over supplies in a year or two thanks to the drill baby drill party being in control. As always the producers will commit suicide and drive crude down to my target of 50 bucks. The bust takes supply off the market with bankruptcies and the whole cycle begins again. We will likely see 200 or even higher. It then takes a couple of years for oil executives to forget about their spanking and the supply glut begins anew. The lag between bust and a new need for supply is very long… But dont confuse that with low availability of crude. Throw in politics and we can get much less supply too. But as price climbs the offending politicians will be swept aside and it will eventually be drill baby drill in California. CA has as much oil as Texas and its largely untapped. Then there’s Russia. All we have to do is make friends with them which I want. But think how far Chris M. Lives from Hawaii? Russia is twice the distance. Think of all the gas and oil there. This will happen IMO.
It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so. Mark Twain
“There is usually only a limited amount of damage that can be done by dull or stupid people. For creating a truly monumental disaster, you need people with high IQs.”— Thomas Sowell
“Advertising has us chasing cars and clothes, working jobs we hate so we can buy shit we don’t need.” Tyler Durden
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It seems as if the USGS is wrong and irrelevant. Despite all kinds of laws restricting access to oil and gas exploration and drilling, CA is actually the 4th highest producing state without even trying. Nobody is looking and it’s in everyone’s interest to downplay the resource. The harder they look the more they will find. Then there is off shore where it is especially against the law to explore. Senate Bill 1137 makes it illegal to drill in the area’s your data shows due to high population density. So of course it is zero. Here is the AI generated write up on exploring for oil in CA. These restrictions that keep California’s oil reserves a secret will melt when oil hits $200.
Oil exploration in California is not illegal, but it is highly regulated and restricted. Offshore drilling is particularly contentious due to environmental concerns and existing bans. For instance, a law passed by former Governor Pete Wilson bans all offshore oil drilling in California out to three miles from shore. Additionally, there are 300 miles of national marine sanctuaries along the California coast which also ban oil drilling. Onshore, mineral rights can be separated from the land, and if you own the mineral rights, you can explore for oil, but this is subject to various regulations and environmental laws.
https://www.mineralanswers.com/california
https://www.conservation.ca.gov/calgem/Pages/SB1137.aspx
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/06/climate/biden-oil-gas-drilling-ban.html
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think it means we are all going nuclear. Because it is the only viable option at this point.
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Paging Sam Brinton pick up line 1.
You are invited to bring facts here, just not the wrong ones.
CA is number 8 on the list:
And it is steadily sliding down that list:
And yes, CA is trying. Same as any other place with oil and gas. Nobody is failing to try anything. If the resource is there and the prices are supportive, people try really hard.
CA may make it harder than other places due to democrat silliness, but it’s still possible. If the resource was there, it’d be drilled, regulatory nonsense notwithstanding.
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Yes good advice about bringing the right “facts”. Since you did not look at my link I did a snip for your convenience. In my data, we know exactly where it came from unlike the mystery data you presented. While my data is a few months older than yours, at least we know where my information comes from. Then thanks for proving my point with your second chart showing production falling. That’s not happening because all the oil is depleted. If you had looked at my other links, they show unbelievable regulation aimed at shutting off drilled and stopping production. And guess what, it worked according to your data. But just imagine what would happen to your chart showing declining oil production if we were allowed to get the resource and especially go off shore? I stand my my statement that CA has as much oil as TX.
How does the data show how much production decline is due to regulation and how much due to well depletion?
Also if your point is CA has as much oil as TX then I’d look for data in proven reserves.
Proven reserves for CA is not accurate because there is a lot of regulation around exploring for and documenting the resource aimed at obscuring. I have listed a few of those regulations, but there are thousands of them. It is not hard to grasp if there is heavy regulations around drilling and also exploring these activities will diminish. And in fact they are. So if new drilling does not keep up with well exhaustion production declines as Chris’s chart shows. Keep in mind there are zero off shore wells. Plus it is illegal to document reserves of off shore oil. But it washes up all over the beaches so there is likely a lot of it.
Declining Rig Count in California
The declining rig count trends in the United States, particularly in California, reflect a cautious approach by operators in balancing capital expenditures and returns. As of October 28, 2024, the U.S. rig count was down 40 rigs from the previous year, with both oil and gas rigs experiencing reductions. This trend is part of a broader shift towards onshore shale plays, as offshore operations face pressure and a decline in the total offshore rig count.
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Here is an article showing California with the 5th highest proven reserves. But if you are not allowed to look for it, you won’t be able to find it.
https://constructioncoverage.com/research/states-with-the-most-oil-reserves
Why the reduction in offshore?
If the oil was there wouldn’t they keep pumping?
Those holes are already in the ocean floor?
I know my storage tanks just got filled.
I’ll admit my ignorance
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Your data is so wrong, that I don’t even know where to begin.
New Mexico isn’t #1. That’s Texas.
PA isn’t anywhere #2, unless you convert NG into “oil equivalents” but that’s a ridiculous thing to do since the molecules are used for entirely different purposes.
CA even by that conversion measure is nowhere near the top.
My data comes from the US EIA.
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From your own link:
Looks like CA has a full order of magnitude less oil than TX. So it’s not really credible to claim “CA has has much as TX”
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Thanks Robie. I enclosed a link showing the Biden administration put an order in place banning all coastal drilling. And with the CA regulations against it as well, there is just no more off shore production or exploration around CA. Their goal is likely to stop all oil production in the state, which they are having great success . BTW they are also having success in shutting down the last refineries. Phillips 66 just announced the Richmond closing. This should not be confused with diminishing resources tho. There is plenty of oil in and around the state. It is my belief all this will become available in an emergency.
It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so. Mark Twain
“There is usually only a limited amount of damage that can be done by dull or stupid people. For creating a truly monumental disaster, you need people with high IQs.”— Thomas Sowell
“Advertising has us chasing cars and clothes, working jobs we hate so we can buy shit we don’t need.” Tyler Durden
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Not including you
Idiots exist enmasse.
My tanks are full and my mare is settled.
Chris I believe addressed this in the crash course. Each of these “peak” events reported over the years aligned to real data. What happened in the 70’s was peak oil extraction in US. It aligned with peak oil discoveries in the 30’s. So, roughly 40 years later. Early 60’s was peak global oil discoveries. 40ish years later, was peak global oil production. The shale oil extraction was a wild card, that is now peaking out. So, your dad was correct, but it wasn’t the complete picture.
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Yes TX is number 1. The production reports next to the states confirm this. Not sure why they have the order mixed up but the data is right when looking at production. I know this drives you crazy being a data guy, but no one knows how much oil is in CA due to all the laws banning exploration. But without even trying CA is one of the top producing states. By showing a few of these laws and regulations, I have shown how much effort has gone into keeping this reserve data secret. My contention is production is dwindling not due to the resources drying up but rather regulations aimed at stopping it. You show the effort is working. Closing ones eyes to the effect severe over regulation designed to shut an industry down has on production is short sighted and inaccurate.
And gas can be used in transportation and likely will in the decades coming. It’s just a slightly different engine.
It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so. Mark Twain
“There is usually only a limited amount of damage that can be done by dull or stupid people. For creating a truly monumental disaster, you need people with high IQs.”— Thomas Sowell
“Advertising has us chasing cars and clothes, working jobs we hate so we can buy shit we don’t need.” Tyler Durden
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