There is only one solution to our predicament of peak oil that makes sense to me. It involves a rapid expansion of nuclear energy and using it to produce hydrogen as a fuel in fuel cells or as a feedstock for the Fischer-Tropsch process of making synthetic oil.
The eVinci reactor from Westinghouse will use Triso fuel. Triso fuel is made by coating a kernel of uranium carbide or uranium oxide with a layer of porous carbon, a layer of silicon carbide, and a final layer of dense graphite. There is only one place in the USA that Triso is currently being manufactured. There are several other companies trying to obtain a license to make it.
The initial stages of developing the manufacturing process to make Triso fuel for the eVinci reactor started recently. I am not sure how long this process will take. I am not sure how quickly Triso production will ramp up because it requires expensive equipment to make.
There is a limit on how much fuel can be made in each batch because of nuclear criticality safety requirements. Triso fuel requires a lot of time to make because the kernels are made from a uranyl nitrate solution. The solid fuel kernels must then be sintered and coated. All steps of this process is time consuming.
There are other small modular reactor options that can be used. I think the eVinci reactor will be the quickest path to ramping up factory built micro reactors.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uR7VDqUbaCg This is a short video with additional info on how Triso is produced. I do not believe they are making real fuel because they do not have a license to make it.
The “Peak Oil” discussion brings to mind the Biblical Joseph and the dream of 7 fat cows followed by 7 skinny cows.
We are living in the “fat” of cheap oil and not preparing for the “skinny” of expensive oil. We should have been investing in nuclear, super conductors, batteries and grids. For efficiency we should all have Ben driving diesel vehicles for decades.
(My take) Perhaps this should read more as, it doesn’t matter what’s in the ground. What matters more is if people or buyers can afford the price of the product and if it’s worth getting it out of the ground. We’re in it to make money, not lose our ass.
Excerpt: “Even as demand for fossil fuels falls, energy security challenges will remain since the process of adjustment to changing demand patterns will not necessarily be easy or smooth. For example, the peaks in demand we see based on today’s policies do not remove the need for investment in oil and gas supply, given how steep the natural declines from existing fields often are*” the IEA stated in its 2023 World Energy Outlook.
Here’s the world’s oil-producing countries arranged by where they are on their personal trajectory.
The charts encompass 20 years of history from 2004 through 2024.
First, here are “the decliners” each of whom is steadily losing more and more output. Note that they collectively put out ~50% less than they did at the start in 2004.
I don’t think we can credibly claim that every one of these countries simply had too much regulatory oversight, or that somehow the O&G industry simply lost interest in looking.
Next is the group of countries that peaked at some point between 2004 and 2024:
Again, this is happening across so many different countries that the best fit explanation is geology, not ‘will’ or politics or regulation.
Ergo, we have to assume that the same underlying process is operating across all countries, including the relatively few that grew over that same 2004 - 2024 time frame:
I’m Not by ANY means expert in the area… Actually to be honest I don’t know absolutely nothing about it… But I’m trying to listen A LOT to people who do and it seems like offshore is super cheap and One of the few area if not only one for future grow is Canada… Specially smaller and mid tier companies…?
And also super bullish on platinum… Seems like on ratio basis platinum is even cheaper then silver(which is insane by itself…) but also still under cost curve…?
I suspected that the US government has been pumping money into the “Fracked” oil and gas industry for a couple of years. Elon Musk’s revelations of “Magic Money Computers” goes a long way in increasing the probability of my suspicions.
