This Financial Crisis Will Be 10x Worse Than 2008

The financial crisis now breaking will be ten times worse than 2008. It will need its own name, perhaps the Extremely Great Financial Crisis.

Stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate, mortgages, corporate financial outlooks…are all tanking. The dollar is spiking. Layoffs are growing. Markets are imploding. What is going on?

We have a liquidity crisis that is on its way potentially to becoming a solvency crisis that would then result in a wave of punishing bankruptcies. It’s a one-two-three punch.

In this important video, I’m digging into the data and the economic downfall heading our way.

Jack is back (as the financial crisis 2.0), and he’s scarier than ever.

My advice is to become prepared, become resilient, and keep your friends and family close. The policy errors of many decades are now all converging on this next year as the time when their pent-up energy of awfulness will be unleashed.

This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at

Financial Fukushima

Financial Fukushima - here we go.


LOL - good one.
“We have three cores on walk-about! Stocks, bonds, and real estate have all melted through their Fed containment vessels and are headed south!”


Welcome Back!

The axe is a nice visual.
Good explanation of liquidity crisis –> insolvency –> bankruptcy roadmap, with a big “You Are Here” magnet to slide along as things progress.


My Grand Unified Conspiracy Theory

The technocrat billionaires got sick of meathead politicians and bureaucrats controlling their lives. So they usurped the control of the WEF to install a global policy of train wreck. The idea is totally destroy all credibility of the existing government institutions to the point the overwhelming majority of the public demands their heads on a pike.
The politicians are just blindly taking advice from the billionaire technocrats who are intentionally guiding them off a cliff.
I mean, if you were zuckerburg, $300 billion net worth, what expense would you spare in never having to get called to congress to explain encryption to Liz warren or Lyndsey graham?
Not to mention crater every cash strapped startup nipping at your heels in one fell swoop.
I think we all here can no longer blame incompetence. This collapse is entirely motivated by those with interests in having one.


Us Trade Weighted Index

Take a peak @ US Trade Weighted index
Volatility is wild! This is a huge head wind for ‘Build Back Better’ Imagine this trade going on and still serious price inflation!


Is The Us Really That Stupid?

It appears so. Tucker Carlson asks the question did the US blowup Nordstream 1&2? Well Biden and Nuland both said on camera they would put an end to both pipelines. Get ready for retaliation from Moscow.


Gulf of Tonkin… Piss off Japan and refuse to sell them oil and then they attack Pearl Harbor… Meddle in the ME and then Bin Laden attacks NYC…
Oh we are COMPLETELY that stupid.


If I Redid My Refi Today…

My current $1600 payment would be $2450. Just over 50% higher.


well they all did sell a good amount of stock in fall '21. so this has enough validity to keep following the thread.


Ive been thinking the same thing for the last 2 yrs…its makes sense and if its true most of the brain dead politicians dont realise whats likely going to happen to them when the pitch forks come out…which is what makes me second guess the idea…becasue when pitchfork levels of chaos are unleashed the final destination is I think unpredictable…


The Great Recession Of 2007-09

Granted this first paragraph contains a bit of a nit, but this message is heading deeper. “Financial Crisis” is a poor term for the 2007-09 event. I have noticed it gaining traction in recent years, and it makes me groan inwardly every time I see it. It is a label that appears to explain what caused the economic dislocation, when in fact it does not–it is only describing a symptom and indeed one symptom of many. “Great Recession” is better, as it makes no pretense to describing a cause while telling us what it actually was: a recession. What the Great Recession should really be called is the “2007-09 Oil Shock and Recession”. This underscores that concepts of liquidity, solvency and bankruptcy are second-order items in terms of trying to understand what happens during many recessions and therefore are lower-tier items when making economic forecasts. Because they can be manipulated, they are somewhat of a foggy lens for looking ahead.
As you have pointed out many a time, Chris, energy is the master controller of economic activity. Therefore, this is the place to start.
In the summer of 2004, the rate of increase in world oil production (crude + condensate) stalled. This key source of energy feeding the machines of industry no longer increased with the demands of a growing globally interwoven economy. By 2007, with oil production rates were still stalled (at about 73-74 million barrels a day for crude + condensate), the lack of growth in liquid fuels began to bite hard. A key issue in this situation is net export math. Exporting countries tend to do well during oil price spikes, as they are making more revenue. This can feed a growing economy. Growing economies demand more oil. This oil has to come from somewhere: Net exports go down. By 2007, a major net export crisis was underway. Global net exports were on the decline.
A bidding war ensued. This is reflected in the dramatic increase in oil prices during 2007, especially the latter half and more dramatically into the summer of 2008 (oil speculators were the scape-goat at the time—in reality they cannot move oil prices much but simply follow the trends). There are peer-reviewed papers that explore how high-oil-prices affect industrial economies. They have been around a long time–since at least the 1970s. For the United States the data indicate that when the price of oil escalates to a point where around 4-5% of the national GDP is consumed to pay for the “black gold”, the economy tips into recession. Nearly every post-WWII recession is linked to an oil-price spike (key exceptions: 1947-48 triggered by the mass post-WW II production layoffs; possibly the 2001 dot-com bust [a modest oil price escalation may actually have triggered this delicate bubble]; and, of course 2020 during the lockdowns). In 2008, oil prices grew relentlessly and reached a phenomenal point where 7-8% of US GDP was required to pay for the critical liquid fuel (given the rate of oil consumption in the US at the time). Economically speaking, this was nearly fatal. Best estimates are that when the cost of oil reaches about 15% of GDP, you will be standing over the smoking ruins of your industrial economy—game over.
For every extra dollar spent on fuel, that is one less dollar going into some other segment of the economy. During price spikes, the oil companies are making big profits and could spend this windfall, but much of this newfound liquidity goes to keeping the business operating and searching for new plays thereby having limited effect on key economic sectors. The cost of shipping goes up, too, which also sucks “free” dollars from other sectors. All the while, J. Q. Public paying more for fuel ends up eating out less, going to the movies less, stretching out the time they wear clothing purchased long ago, and so on. They drive fewer miles, which means less time exposed to the temptations of visiting downtowns, malls, parks and museums. High oil prices are a major economic headwind. I like to think of the WTI price in terms of wind speed. $100/bbl = 100 km/h. Well, 80 to 120 km/h is difficult to walk through, let along the 140-150 km/h ($/bbl) that occurred in 2008. Economic growth slows, stalls and then reverses under such heavy loads.
The Great Recession was not triggered by a housing crash, or the collapse of Lehman Bros or any other distraction from what actually happened. It was simply (and ominously) due to high oil prices, or more specifically a constrained energy supply. In other words, Joules for oil importing countries were on a downward trend. This manifested economically in varied and sundry ways. One interesting detail is the dramatic impact oil prices had on people who had to commute long distance—housing prices generally fell the most sharply in those neighborhoods that had the highest car dependence. While this is a bit of a digression, I note that today, one growing story is the number of people simply getting rid of their cars—something to keep an eye on. This can become an easy decision in a time of rampant price inflation for just about everything. Given the cost of maintenance, fuel, insurance, payments (if one borrowed to get the vehicle) and so forth, giving up a car is like giving yourself a $10-30K annual raise. Ebikes may be part of this story–these I think represent a much bigger game changer than electric cars that are far more expensive, especially in climate zones amenable to cycling.
Ultimately, during the Great Recession, the loss of accessible Joules resulted in massive dysfunction in complex, poorly designed (with the insult of various band-aids put on in kludge fashion after the 1970s oil-shocks) and badly managed economic systems. The thermodynamic link to the economy is inescapable. Thermodynamics are at the core of understanding the functioning of an economy. Oil supply, a primary energy source, became constrained (i.e. the supply could not grow at the time) and economic growth faltered (contracting GDP). Credit (loans) cannot be easily serviced without economic growth—thus many delinquent mortgages, and even more dramatically (and ominous) a massive credit freeze. 
Another thing to keep in mind: High oil prices are a global phenomenon. They hit the economies of nations all over the planet. This best explains a global economic downturn. Such as we saw in 2007-09 and are experiencing again right now. After the down-in-the-dirt dumb-as-a-box-of-rocks sanctions against Russia, we went through a sudden and sharp increase in oil prices due to a loss of oil supply in global markets. Joules are constrained—yet again. The prices are still at historically high levels even at the $75-85/bbl range. The rather predictable recession from the latest oil shock now appears well underway, and indeed as you point out in detail in the video there are symptoms–popping rivets–just about everywhere you look.
Anyway, thanks for the in-depth look at the developing financial symptoms!


Great Video

Plus, I really like it that it is publicly available. I find the ignorance wrt our current situation incredible. I truly hope this video helps to open up some eyes…


Good Education

Chris at his best, doing the teaching of the basics. I would say empowering, but there is little the common person can do to change things (apart from baton down the hatches). ps many of the UK mortages lenders have completely withdrawn their products!!!

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Pandemic Phase 2

This is a financial version of what we just went through for the past two years. That is why the WEF sent out the word to its flunkies that “the pandemic is over.” That was just two weeks ago. Does anyone remember?
And now its time for the Economic Pandemic. Or Pandemic Phase 2. However you want to frame it.
Who do we blame for this? Well duh, the same folks who told us we will Own Nothing and Be Happy. We’re starting in on the “You’ll Own Nothing” phase right now.
Oh sure there’s the Fed, and there’s old Joe Biden, and there’s Sholz and Truss and Macron. But just as during Pandemic Phase 1, they are all taking orders from Someone Else. “Get Vaccinated!”
I call the order-issuer “the WEF”, but who knows, there might be someone behind Dr Evil too. I don’t pretend to know, since they don’t invite me to the meetings.
The goal of Pandemic 2: You Will Own Nothing. (Because - “Climate Change”). It won’t look like Pandemic 1, but the “national” actors are all acting in lock-step, just like they were during 2020-2022.
So be careful out there.


The breakdown of trust… and the crash in collateral values and margin calls and the whole pyramid of the debt as money ponzi scheme… seems to be beating the peak energy systemic collapse to the punch


Always. But the first causes the second. And once the equity markets blow up (which reacts a lot faster), the follow-on period (1930-1933, vs 1929) will be a time with no energy resources, which will make that period much worse. No money - and no energy.
The depression didn’t happen due to an equity market crash. It happened because of the defaults & bankruptcies, which occurred several years later. Those were the real wealth-transfers. Excuse me I mean wealth-destruction events.
And now we’re piling Peak Oil / Peak Natgas on top of a major financial system default.
“You’ll Own Nothing.” That’s the intent.


Video Is Messed Up.

What is the matter with this video? It jumps. It skips. The sound drops out. It freezes up. What is going on?

It’s part of the same geopolitical story of the past 100 years - the US meddling around the world to weaken others so as to become (and now to hang on to its position as) global leader.
It is all calculated and deliberate - not stupid. Of course, the US tells everyone they are lovely and that everyone from every other country is either a commie or a terrorist - or both - especially if they have resources that the US wants to buy for printed dollars. If they refuse, terrorists will be funded, government will be toppled and US gets what it wants anyway.


And a flip side to consider is to pull a false flag operation, then use it to point a finger at the U.S.
After Biden shot off his mouth in early February, the U.S. is one of the obvious suspects. That clip of him saying that we’d take out the pipelines and have the means to do so was all over the web within hours of the event. Was this ol’ Joe just popping off randomly at the mouth or was it something he’d heard in a briefing and wasn’t supposed to say out loud? Or was it a real threat, trying to keep Russia bottled up before they invaded Ukraine?
Note, I am not saying that this is a false flag aimed at the U.S. I’m just saying it’s one more possibility to consider.