I’m glad that several commenters here have pointed out the incorrect complete acceptance of the correlation shown by Guy Hatchard. I had also thought the link dubious and did a quick check of previous years’ figures to find that deaths of over 60s tends to peak in the winter months. Perhaps Chris forgot that July is winter in the southern hemisphere but I haven’t notice his acknowledgment that his supposition that, in this case, correlation was sufficient to prove causation was just plain wrong.
To me, it looks like Guy took the over 60s because deaths in that group were more likely to find a correlation to vaccinations which were rolled out on an age basis. Guy didn’t look at other age groups and didn’t test his hypothesis by looking at earlier years.
Sadly, it seems that once one has decided that vaccinations are evil, all and any anecdotal evidence becomes proof. I’ve lost count of the times I’ve seen brave criticism of astounding “facts”, showing out of context information and cherry picked information, being ignored by those who are certain of their position and are only interested in shoring up that position, even by dodgy data.
Chris also made an error in suggesting systems like CARM, in NZ, and VAERS, in the US, are actively discouraged to be reported in. Anyone can make reports in such systems (I’ve done it myself, it’s not hard) but that openness makes those databases usable only for investigating potential side-effects. They are not causal in any way whatsoever.
It seems that one can’t get objective information from any source, any more. I think we’re all on our own in that. I am heartened that there are members here who want to get at the truth. Please don’t take headlines at face value; do some due diligence.
I can’t recall where I read that and I/the article could be wrong. That wasn’t my point though. It was more that the virus has become the sole thing that many politicians are focused on, while letting everything else go, as if it’s the only thing that matters. And that being politicians, they lust after leaving their mark on history.
In other words, it was a speculative post.
Does New Zealand do a big push on flu shots ahead of and during winter like they do here? Curious?
Hi All,
Actually, apart from working on my startup, I spend one day a week on furthering a novel, published method to infer causality from observational data. I do not want to apply this method on covid data as I know that the psychopaths and their minions will crush it. Once developed, I believe that this has the potential becoming a revolutionary democratic tool: data don’t lie, people do. I’m not willing to share the background of the method, nor the direct output of the algorithms, due to the sick authoritarions I alluded to earlier. But, I’m willing to process actual New Zealand data to check if there is any causality in play, and report on it. What I need:
- Covid mortality data per month to lessen the impact of reporting delays. Preferable for five years or so, and, perferable per age cohort
- vaccination status per month if possible per same age cohort
- overall mortality per month, possibly per same age cohort
- if possible, monthly temperatures, or “sun hours” for the same time period
If people doubt me, there is another frequent poster on PP who has more details, and who did actually see the results of an analysis performed on USA Death statistics. I leave it to this person to share his opinion, or not…
Hi Dave,
You will find monthly deaths by age since 2010 here:
https://www.stats.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/Births-and-deaths/Births-and-deaths-Year-ended-September-2021/Monthly-death-registrations-by-ethnicity-age-sex-Jan2010-Sep2021.xlsx
We only have 52 covid deaths. Yes that’s right, I didn’t miss a zero. We are told that normally 500 flue deaths a year, and we have had none in 2020 or 2021
https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+mortality+nz&rlz=1C1CHBF_enNZ816NZ816&oq=covid+mortal&aqs=chrome.2.0i512j69i57j0i512l5j69i60.6592j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
Does this help with vaccine numbers:
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data#uptake
This was interesting because the first booster apparently was given on 20th May! But Medsafe didn’t approve boosters until November, something fishy here.
https://covid.immune.org.nz/news-insights/pfizer-booster-gets-medsafe-approval
I found this for temperatures:
https://niwa.co.nz/climate/monthly
Hope this helps 
Thanks! This weekend I will gather and prepare the data, and let the script run.
Hi wemustspeakout,
Thanks for the data links. I will only use the data tabulated in the excels. It is a pitty that the mortality data is uptill September 2021.
Although the causal analysis takes less than 1 second for this data set, I’ll have to spend some time on putting it in the correct format, and itterating the analysis to find the maximum confidence interval.
Regardless of the results, I’ll post the outcome. Because I need to write both an explanation, and cast it in a format that will not lead the result back to me, this will take some time.
Btw, the reason why I need to stay anonymous is because the MSM and the sociopaths will destroy this method, just like they are destroying people like Malone, McCullough, Joe Rogan. I believe its potential impact is too large to have it killed in infancy…
Edit:
- Used sun hours in Auckland as a proxy for vitamin D (link)
- Verified with vitamin D level (link), which is suprisingly high, see picture below. This could btw explain low death rate.
- Used another source to complete the overal deaths in 2021 (link). The graphs contains the total number of deaths. The data is not per month, so there is a discrepancy in totla monthly deaths. Because the causality inference method doesn’t use absolute numbers, this data can still be used to suplement the deat data per month. I checked the “change values” and these were identical for comparable months.
The first runs show that the first post of this thread seems to be valid, given the data:
- For New Zealand, no causality can be inferred from the data, 35 data samples, between the vaccines and the overall mortality. See disclaimer.
- There is a significant causality inferred between sunshine and overall mortality. The causal delay is ~ 4 months.
- temporal precedence: the cause precedes the effect
- direct, non-spurious only: there is neither a common cause, that is, confounder. Nor is there a mediator between the cause and effect, the cause needs to be direct, and not spurious.
- prediction: the cause predicts [the change in] the effect better than the effect does.
- asymmetry: the cause predicts the effect better than that the effect predicts the cause
Initialization being the bane of online existence, WTF is NPI?
Hey that’s great. On Feb 17th we get access to the October/November/December data. I don’t know how to post a new topic here but I will try and do this.
Please remember this. In 2020 we had no flu deaths and buggar all covid deaths. Same in 2021. The 2019 results (Jan - Dec) include 500 flu deaths. So if 2021 ends up being 500 deaths less than 2019, then its comparable to 2019. But if 2021 ends up with more than 2019, something is up.
I know 4 men who have died of heart attacks in their 50s is the last 6 months. And 2 more who survived a heart attack. I know of several young people with heart issues, 7 men 1 woman. NZ data is sure going to be interesting to study.
Our moronic Director of Health tells us 400 of us are going to die of Covid before May.
Meanwhile our stupid PM is making us isolate for 24 days!!! Hahaha. Thats going to make sure no one gets tested and no one uses the sign in app so you cannot be traced. We’ll just stay home with the sniffles (I sprained my ankle really) and get back to earning a living after 3 days. Geez this country is pathetic.
The isolation for 24 days meme seems to be gathering pace, just like omicron. Isolation for 24 days is in the situation where the positive index case has to isolate for 14 days and any close contacts have to isolate for 10 days after the index case is deemed to have recovered. So some may have to isolate for 24 days in some situations.
This is one well organised tent city! We have dancefloors, school tent, yoga classes, a laundry service, a rubbish service, a food tent, a medic tent, a vaccine injury tent.
Kiwis have seen the future, and they are not going to budge until the madates are dropped.
Flights to Wellington are fully booked and ferries are full. The people keep coming. Meanwhile the tent camps in Picton and CHCH are growing.
I am proud to be a Kiwi today.
Key facts
In the year ended December 2021:
- 58,659 live births and 34,932 deaths were registered in New Zealand, resulting in a natural increase (live births minus deaths) of 23,727
- there were 1,086 more births, and 2,319 more deaths compared with the year ended December 2020
- the total fertility rate was 1.64, up slightly from 1.61 in the year ended December 2020
- the infant mortality rate was 4.7 deaths per 1,000 live births.
We know that in 2019 we had approx 500 flu deaths and 50 deaths due to the terrorist attack in Christchurch. The total was 34,260.
In 2020 we had 23 deaths due to Covid (could be slightly different as I am going from memory. No flu deaths.
In 2021 we had a handful more Covid deaths and no flu deaths.
What do you make of it?
Wife is just off phone with friend in NZ. She is total believer that Jacinda Ardern can do no wrong. She went on and on about how terrible the protests are and how the few normal protestors were pushed out by QAnon, white supremacists and bikies swinging nooses and nazi flags and spitting on people going about their daily business.
And, ironically the friend has barrels of Dwyzibin as she runs a sheep farm and thinks that the conspiracy theorists are nuts for wanting to use it.
These are the summaries that will provide people with the best overview of population trends in NZ:
Mortality is, of course, the key (but these statistics do not provide much of a breakdown (have to see NZ Health for that). It does look comparatively benign with increases in deaths being attributed to the aging of the population.
It seems as though they are claiming that winter deaths in 2020 were unually low, and 2021 saw a return to trend:
“Deaths in 2021 were in line with the expected trend of increasing deaths, while deaths in 2020 were lower as there were far fewer winter deaths than other years.”I'm a bit surprised that vax injury/death is not figuring more at this point (NZ seems to have better vax injury sites than we have). But NZ is ultimately like Australia in that, as much as they have averted much of the difficulties experienced in the rest of the world up until this point, they have, nonetheless, completely squandered this on high vaccination rates which will, from now on, place them well behind the rest of the world. That is, if Geert vanden Bossche's warning are warranted, they will have merely kicked the can down the road. I can't see why they wouldn't be, as he seems to have got practically everything else right up until this point. NZ's borders aren't even open yet, much as (our oddity) Western Australia's aren't yet (for largely political reasons). By smugly driving up vaccination rates with draconian health policies both are only going to make things all the worse when they finally open up and the virus chances upon whole populations with practically no possibility of natural immunity. They seem destined to become perpetual plague states from here on. HP
Jacinda can certainly do wrong, as all politicians can, and do. There’s a good case to be made for dropping the mandates with omicron though I would have thought mandates for all/most professions have played out by now. However, throwing faeces at police, pouring sewage down the storm water channels, blocking streets and verbally attacking other people is simply putting off the vast majority of the population in NZ. Wemustspeakout is proud to be a kiwi but seems to distance himself/herself from most kiwis.
Nothing else worth saying.
Amazing that the NZ bill of rights as it turns out is not completely toothless. Go Kiwis!
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2022/02/covid-19-high-court-quashes-unlawful-vaccine-mandate-for-police-and-defence-force-staff.html
HP
Jacinda can certainly do wrong, as all politicians can, and do. There's a good case to be made for dropping the mandates with omicron though I would have thought mandates for all/most professions have played out by now. However, throwing faeces at police, pouring sewage down the storm water channels, blocking streets and verbally attacking other people is simply putting off the vast majority of the population in NZ. Wemustspeakout is proud to be a kiwi but seems to distance himself/herself from most kiwis.I'm just going by what AOC said about protests, and reapplying it to parents unhappy that their children are being forced-vaccinated with an experimental product, that doesn't work, and only causes harm - especially to children:
"The whole point of protesting is to make ppl uncomfortable. Activists take that discomfort w/the status quo & advocate for concrete policy changes…To folks who complain protest demands make others uncomfortable…that’s the point.” "The thing that critics of activists don’t get is that they tried playing the “polite language” policy game and all it did was make them easier to ignore. It wasn’t until they made folks uncomfortable that there was traction to do ANYTHING even if it wasn’t their full demands.”But go ahead. Tell us that protesters aren't supposed to shout. Or throw poop. Or make anyone feel "uncomfortable." Do you even hear what you are saying?
This turns out to have been an incredibly lame decision, which is, I guess what one would expect given this sort of legal system (we have much the same here in Oz). The mandate only concerned ‘continuity’.
"In essence, the order mandating vaccinations for Police and NZDF staff was imposed to ensure the continuity of the public services, and to promote public confidence in those services, rather than to stop the spread of Covid-19. Indeed health advice provided to the government was that further mandates were not required to restrict the spread of COVID-19.," "I should make it clear what this case is not about. Neither should the court's conclusion be understood to question the effectiveness and importance of vaccination. The evidence shows that vaccination significantly improves the prospects of avoiding serious illness and death, even with the Omicron variant. It confirms the importance of a booster dose given the waning effect of the first two doses of the vaccine."So the judge is just repeating the official kool-aid fed to him. No mention at all of the associated risks. HP