There are A LOT of new people on this site the last two months. While the current focus is heavily on this virus, and rightly so given the seriousness, there are extensive archives on all manner of topics that have been seriously discussed and debated since the sites inception.
It would be great if newer members could do some exploring on their own to first really see what this site is all about before voicing judgments. Please don’t rely on the site administrators or long time members to keep pointing you in the right direction - be your own problem solver/explorer. Curiosity is an overlooked virtue! Navigation is not hard within the forums, so please take a look before voicing criticisms about lack of topic emphasis or, as others have suggested, a lack of astuteness in certain matters. There is a lot more here than meets the eye, and a whack of really smart people who are more than astute. Jumping to conclusions about site information breadth and depth is inappropriate if you have not taken adequate time to explore first.
Jan
Insofar as the markets are concerned my own review is still pointing to the Dow recovering all its losses thus far and returning back to prior highs seen in February of 29550 and slightly exceeding them. So a full retrace in other words however the next period of caution will come at the beginning of May where another strong decline should get underway. There is going to be a period of tremendous volatility which should just be expected under our current circumstances but I have ruled out these current declines as being a permanent feature where markets just keep falling a’la 1929 or some other dangerous sounding wipe out of equity wealth that takes decades to recover from. That is not to say that the market decline from May onward won’t be equally dramatic as what we have just seen. I am just saying that there are more innings in this game and we can assess again after that time and also that the market (and the economy for that matter) is much stronger than some people are giving it credit for despite the Corona virus interrupting business temporarily.
From a doctor working in the epicenter:
https://mobile.twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538
Hospitals are at 200% capacity. Many patients who need ventilators only have access to an oxygen mask. Non-coronavirus emergencies are diverted or not treated. Patients over 65 years old or younger if they have comorbidities are not even assessed, much less intubated. They are basically left to die or by some miracle recover with oxygen and whatever care can be delivered. Read the twitter thread. It says it better than I did and there is a link to an Italian TV news report that probably has good information if you understand Italian (or maybe can find it on youtube with subtitles).
This is what an overwhelmed hospital system looks like. The very high death rate of 6% in Italy is almost certainly due to this. Since so many infections there are recent and have not progressed to serious or critical yet, the death rate will likely increase. Northern Italy is probably our best clue as to what really happened in Wuhan.
Think about all of the people you know who would be left to die if/when this happens where you live - not because of lack of compassion, but because there will be no better choice if we get into such a predicament. Everyone, please let’s to everything we can to influence those around us to help slow the spread of this infection, lower the peak and save hundreds of thousands of lives.
Even DIAP has been sighted here recently. Hey Dogs! Whutup?!?
It was still CM.com, man – I think it was the year after the crash, so '09 or '10, that you and I met at the conference in New Paltz. It was so good to talk to reasonable people who believed as I did.
I’m dating a woman right now who built a medicinal mushrooms biz on the mainland and sold it a couple years back. She’s the one who got me the fresh cordyceps, but now I’m taking the supply issue into my own hands.
Good for you to get at least to WA. New Rochelle just isn’t that far from our old stomping grounds in Briarcliff Manor.
Here’s to our safety, and for our families, and the larger PP fam too!
VIVA – Sager
What I was saying is that our whole society, including Peak Prosperity is climate change obsessed. Obsession limits time for other things and narrows your focus.
All I said was don’t blame PP for being any more climate change obsessed than the rest of society.
ao, I have zero skill at picking stocks. The pub IQ Trends has been playing the blue-chip game since 1966; holding ~20 undervalued, A-quality dividend-paying stocks an average of 3-5 years based upon the usual metrics. I recommend it. Very boring. It matches the market over time just without the wild swings up or down (makes sense as half of profits come from dividends) and it’s all about “cash flow” versus “the market”.
But I can’t just name my “top 10 stocks”; I currently have about 25 (I think EV, CMI, BP, SLB, XOM, BEN, IBM, TXN, UNH, PFE, SVS, KO, LOW, CWCO, WMT, TJX, TGT, AXP, TROW, BA, EMR, UNP) & many I bought recently because they got hammered, and many are overvalued now and I’m about to dump them & cash in. No skill, just dull work. They are just the cleanest shirts in a very dirty laundry pile. I much prefer local business or houses I can see, but I’m mostly too lazy/stupid to do much there.
One of the strange things over the last 30 years has been how index funds drive up the “market” of garbage and nobody cares what is “in there” anymore. Many of these stock make no cash! There really is no “market”, just a bunch of stocks, many making money (ROIC) and paying dividends, and many just raw speculation. But one can still buy individual stocks that make money and avoid the “market”.
Everyone, please let’s do everything we can to influence those around us to help slow the spread of this infection, lower the peak and save hundreds of thousands of lives.We have told friends about what is going on worldwide. Without exception, so far, they have chosen not to alter their lives, even a little. We try to make mostly rational decisions. Those around us make emotional decisions. Mostly, our friends are worried about us. They think we are overreacting.
Really hits home exponential growth. Note it is in logarithmic scale (10, 100, 1000)
https://twitter.com/i/status/1237410742770339840
I am wondering about keeping our car seats clean. If I get it on my clothes, then use the car, is there any way of periodically cleaning the seats? Spraying with bleach would do it, but also probably break down the cover pretty quickly. I suppose we could cover the seats with old sheets and then launder them, so maybe I’ve answered that one, but is there any data on how long it lingers? Everyone talks about hard surfaces, not soft ones.
Several people have noted the obvious spam in post 26 here. Instead of going WTF? a simple action that even a few people can do is go to your mail here, and PM Adam Taggart with the title of SPAM and the link to the post. You can copy that if you put your mouse over the post # (in this case #26) and then hit “Control + V”. Paste that url (Control +C) into your PM to Adam.
If 4-5 of us do this, he will notice in all of the PMs he is getting. Then he can delete the post in a timely manner.
As I understand it from my reading vshelford, the virus droplets live for less time on soft materials. The material probably wicks away the moisture and then cracks the coating to allow air to kill the virus.
Sorry I don’t have a link to that fact though. Too many posts and papers I have read.
For this reason I’ve become a book buyer, especially antique books on American History. It looks like I’ll need to get some into the 1930s to include the ‘Spanish Flu’ too. Thank you for that heads-up.
Thanks for flagging folks. Spam post deleted.
cheers,
A
Of all places the Weather Channel has a nice article showing the different symptoms of the Flu, Alergies and Covid19. Might help you if you get sick and freak out thinking you have Covid and you just have the flu.
https://weather.com/health/cold-flu/news/2020-03-10-difference-between-coronavirus-flu-allergies-symptoms
BTW, buy a thermometer and an oximeter, which for $20 can give you your blood oxygen level. A big indicator of Covid19 is a decrease in blood oxygen levels as it attacks your lungs. Establish a baseline, then if you feel sick, begin to document your temp and O2 every 4-6 hours. If you get a fever over 101 or a O2 level of 92% or less, immediately go to the doctor.
Oximeter Amazon listing
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=oximeter+finger+with+pulse&crid=10NKYOFARR4T8&sprefix=oximeter%2Caps%2C179&ref=nb_sb_ss_i_3_8
There’s been alot of hair splitting here about the CFR of Covid19, is some cases to try and minimize the disruption this virus is going to cause.
Personally I don’t care if this virus causes 1, 2, or 3.4 people to die per hundred people. What I do worry about is the spillover effect that first the deaths, then the ill (10-15% of total infected) AND the effect of the worry that a family member will get this virus, is going to cause the economy. It doesn’t take many people to stay home in fear to have a profound effect.
"Ironically, the officials now urging citizens to keep calm understand far more acutely than the general public how much else can go wrong. A municipal police chief in the Boston area recently urged me to imagine that a school district closed for even three weeks. Take just one child, raised by a single parent who is a police officer. The child is home, so the parent must stay home. Other officers in the same patrol will be affected even if they don’t have kids in school. Shifts will change, nonessential functions will be put off, and the department will have less flexibility to respond to problems unrelated to the epidemic—even as, with more teens unsupervised, rates of car accidents and certain crimes could well increase. Emergency-response officials are hesitant to play out these dangers in public. This police chief asked me not to identify him because, like so many others in positions of responsibility, he worries that misgivings like his will become self-fulfilling prophecies—that citizens will panic if their local authorities give voice to their own doubts."https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/us-isnt-ready-whats-about-happen/607636/ Imagine just 5% of your business' workforce not showing up. How would that effect you and your company. Imagine 10%, imagine 15%. People don't have to die to have a profound effect. Though the sick who don't are going to bury the hospital system.
If you could figure a way to put a HEPA filter in the tubes this would be so cool to wear to my local grocery store, lol.
School administrators gave homework out to students using an app. Kids figured out if the app got enough 1 star ratings it would be removed from the App store, lol.
https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/9/21171495/wuhan-students-dingtalk-hooky-nyc-columbia-princeton-app-store-reviews
BTW, WTF is up with the image in the article? LOL, “He’s dead Jim!”
This is a great video and perhaps the closest and most believable truth we’re going to hear. Italian doctor calmly speaking out. He is the network controller for the ICU (Intensive Care Unit) beds in N Italy. Says coronavirus worse than a bomb (in terms of its impact to the healthcare system and cascading effects). Very worth to watch.
https://youtu.be/9mrPHO-nkVE
From memory normal glass absorbs most UV…
and UV is what dose the sterilizing
Went to send the link on but the article noted at the top that the paper had been retracted with no reason given
I was skeptical about the claim it stayed in the air for 30 min to infect a passenger that got on after spreader got off, and thought contact from surface more likely, But time will tell