We’re Not Going To Make It…

Chris, I cheer your opportunity to inject some sanity into the international dialogue about "What To Do."  Even if the attempt ultimately fails (and I'm sure it will along the lines gillbilly suggested in #12), the attempt should be made if for no other reason than to take away the excuse of "No one could've seen this coming! Why didn't somebody say something sooner?"  The attempt to warn others, change our own personal courses, and change society's course is also a moral imperative for us (regardless of results) if we ever hope to consider ourselves people of compassion and integrity.
To me, the problem boils down to one of morality. The willingness to honestly face problems and predicaments with eyes wide open is a positive moral trait, one of the essences of "wisdom."  The refusal or unwillingness to face them is evil and foolishness.  It seems undeniable to me that the large majority of people all over the world are morally deficient in that they refuse to or "can't" (emotionally) face these problems and predicaments in any significant and constructive way.

We've been this way on environmental and energy problems/predicaments for decades, and we've only gotten worse.  I too remember working for Jimmy Carter's election and cheering his attempt to generate "an adult discussion" (as Chris often describes it) around these issues.  I also remember the push back he got from TPTB and I remember my neighbors and friends scoffing and laughing at his attempts (especially his sweater).  And here we are about 40 years later without much to show for the efforts many have made before and since.  (I'm not demeaning the many positive changes and efforts made. I'm just saying the problem has gotten bigger too, largely negating the impact of the good.)

In fact, I think it's much worse morally for us than it was in the 1970's and 80's.  We are still morally unwilling to face up to the problems and predicaments that are upon us, but now more than ever we are turning on each other in a million predatory ways.  We're just like the passengers on the doomed Titanic: proud, arrogant, refusing to see potential problems, and when disaster strikes there is chaos (from lack of adequate preparation) and the rich and powerful prey on the poor and weak (in the disgusting struggle for the inadequate number of seats on the life boats).  Just when we most need to put selfishness and greed aside and all work together, most of us, from first class on down to steerage, are stabbing others in the back for a chance at survival or even just for a tiny, temporary advantage.  We aren't rising to the occasion.  We're sinking to the lowest levels imaginable.

This is from today's Daily Digest:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/03/30/a-dozen-current-and-former-principals-of-beleaguered-detroit-public-schools-allegedly-took-nearly-1m-in-kickbacks/

When Ronald Alexander appeared via video conference on the “The Ellen DeGeneres Show” last month, he was described as “the most amazing man.” Alexander, 60, was the principal of Charles L. Spain Elementary-Middle School, a Detroit public school that became the recipient of a $500,000 donation facilitated by the show.

The episode, which aired in early February, played footage of the school’s crumbling roof and dilapidated gym. Virtually none of the school’s technology worked, DeGeneres told her audience, and the students were forced to take P.E. classes in the hallways.

Before a crowd of students and staff in the cafeteria, DeGeneres announced a slate of donations totaling half a million dollars from Lowe’s, the home improvement company, amid raucous cheers.

Then, the grand finale came in the form of Justin Bieber emerging from a box beside DeGeneres. The pop star announced that $1 of every ticket sold for an upcoming concert in the area would be given to Spain Elementary.

“Of all the people in the whole world, I am the happiest principal on Earth,” Alexander said into the camera with a wide grin. “I love you! I love you again! This is the best.”

His mood may have since changed, as Alexander was named on Tuesday as one of 12 current and former Detroit principals charged with taking bribes and kickbacks from a school supplies vendor and fabricating invoices from the city’s beleaguered public schools.

The alleged scheme began in 2002 and continued until January 2015...

statement from McQuade’s office accuses Norman Shy, the owner of school supplies vendor Allstate Sales, of conspiring with Clara Flowers, the assistant superintendent of the Detroit Public Schools’ Office of Specialized Student Services.

Shy and Flowers are also charged with tax evasion for failing to report income.

Flowers allegedly received $324,785 in kickbacks from Shy in return for using him as the district’s vendor. According to charging documents cited by the Detroit Free Press, these came in the form of cash, gift cards and payments to contractors who renovated Flowers’s house.

Flowers and Shy allegedly met regularly to discuss the favors that Flowers was owed, amounts which were carefully tabulated on a ledger that Shy maintained...

The arrangements with principals allegedly unfolded in a similar manner, but in return for kickbacks and bribes, the principals submitted fraudulent invoices — claiming costs for auditorium chairs, lined paper and supplemental teaching materials that were never delivered.

According to the U.S. Attorney’s Office, the financial compensation received by the principals ranged from a low of $4,000 to a high of $194,000. In all, the alleged payments from Shy to school officials totaled $908,518.

As the Detroit Public Schools were sliding below the waves, some people at the top were shamelessly skimming from the shrinking pot for their own benefit instead of working unselfishly for the good of all.  And these are just the ones who got caught and for whom there is enough evidence to bring criminal charges.  There were/are many others.

I'm all in favor of trying to warn others and alter the course we're all on, regardless of how few positive responses there may be.  I feel morally bound to do so, as probably all of us do here at PP.com.  However, I'm under no illusions about the possibility of good and glorious results.  So I'll keep trying, but in the meantime I'm working on this Ark I'm building.

"Welcome to the Hunger Games. And may the odds be ever in your favor."

The real conflict I see here is that the steps that need to be taken really need to be from the bottom up.  Is the UN equipped to support bottom-up transformation? 
The fact is that the dilemmas we face are becoming quite well know – thanks to you and others like you, Chris!  Despite that, I don't see much bottom-level action except by kooks like us.  So knowledge of the problem is not enough.  Concrete programs need to be put into place to facilitate the needed transitions at the local level. 

I will pm you

I did this a few years ago, as part of the Riot For Austerity. The idea was that to keep the carbon emissions below 350ppm, it was estimated that the US needed to collectively lower its average energy usage by 90%.
Of course, we are well above 350ppm at this point. But, we still need to do this. It wasnt that bad, my household basically made it, and we still exist in a modern house and all. I mean, I do have  refrigerator etc…

Transportation is a huge thing. We carpooled extensively, and I drove a TDI running off of Biodiesel, locally made. Heat is a second. We heat with locally harvested bio-mass (wood) burned in a modern catalytic converter equiped freestanding wood stove. And did the insulate the Sill Plate thing, as well as encapsulating the crawlspace from the dirt and closing off vents to the  crawlspace. We wear used cashmere sweaters in the house and sleep under down comforters. We keep the electric hot water heater "off" most of the time right now as the solar hot water heater panel is broken. We cut our showers down to 1 or 2 a week, short, and wash inbetween using less water by the sink. No one except you all I just told, is the wiser.

Internet boxes turned off at night and for large swathes of time in the day while we go be more productive. We only have laptops, etc…

Grow food, by local produce if needed, buy dry goods in bulk, can my own tomatoes, jam, fruit, broth, etc…

I dont want to do the whole list. We made our 10%

Even I can do more.

On the list: Fix the solar hot water; replace my broken solar PV batteries; Make warm window curtains; extend fencing to provide more forage to chickens and goats; We may finally get to Bio-Gas generation, look at Hestia for inspiration; Finish Caulking; Fix the various air-sealing problems between the downstairs bathroom and the garage; In the farther future will be: a better root cellar area; etc… to take dependence off of having a refrigerator.

The most important electrical appliance to me is my clothes washer. and well pump. These are the needs hardest for me to get around. I can cook in various ways, my solar ovens, woodstove, maybe biogas in the future. I can wash by dishes by hand. We would all live withe the internet gone. I like some refrigeration, given that we have dairy goats, but could be alot less, or direct solar, or absorbtion cycle off of bio-gas. Other people could wash clothes by hand, but I am disabled esp in the arm shoulder area. I could trade for it. Well pump could be run direct off of one of my solar panels, just needs to pump on sunny days as we have a water tank

Chris, You provide too much accurate information and analysis to continue to be a purveyor of the carbon based warming and ocean acidification fear mongering.  I just came across this site and I believe if you take the time to check it out your fears will be erased. http://nov79.com/gbwm/acd.html  This page explains the limits and drivers of acidification.  On other pages, he demolishes the radiative green house effect, which is the foundation of climate fear.  Thanks for all you do, but please keep the criminality of the banksters and politicians front and center.  The debt based monetary system is the real source of our problems.

It’s sunny and 70 outside here in Seattle…in March.

Bravo, Chris.  This is the sort of article that keeps me coming back here.
While I thought the entire article was fantastic, the best part IMO was that you were nominated via someone with influence sharing The Crash Course.  The Crash Course is a genuine masterpiece and it's inspirational to think that it may be reaching more people.

Also inspirational was your challenge to us, your readers, and some of the responses to it.  In that vein, here are my meager efforts (all of which have occurred in the past 4 years.)

  • 3.5 kW grid-tied PV system 

  • geothermal heat pump for cooling/heating/hot water

  • 5 chickens in the backyard, 7 fruit trees and the garden has now grown to > 200 sq ft

  • this spring's project is installing drip irrigation to that garden

  • I mostly work from home and when I have to drive I often ride my 650cc motto that gets ~52mpg

Where I need to improve most, I think, is in supporting and encouraging others to make similar steps.  I'm a private person and relatively new to my area.  I haven't built the social capital I need, not just for myself but to effective influence others to become the change I/they want to see.  

 

T.

 

Maybe this is a wild card but has anyone had any experience constructing roman style central heating systems (Hypocaust)?
In particular how easy is it to construct and how efficiently does it keep the house/room warm? I'm assuming it'll be wood fueled. What caught my eye from the wikipedia entry was the following;

[quote]

"With the decline of the Roman Empire, the hypocaust fell into disuse, especially in the western provinces. In Britain, from c. 400 until c. 1900, central heating did not exist, and hot baths were rare.In the Iberian Peninsula, the Roman system was adopted for the heating of Hispano-Islamic (Al Andalus) baths (hammams). A derivation of hypocaust, the gloria, was in use in Castile until the arrival of modern heating. After the fuel (mainly wood) was reduced to ashes, the air intake was closed to keep hot air inside and to slow combustion."

[/quote]

It would seem we have a choice between either hypocausts or modernised gas central heating systems. Anyone come across other heating alternatives?

 

  It has been estimated the average US person consumes 250 kWh/day. So how much of this came from "renewable" sources?     Well 5 mins research can easily reveal that.

In 2013 the US produced 522.46 TWh of energy from all types of "renewables". Divide this by a population of 320 million over 365 days. Answer: 4.47 kWh/day per person or 1.8% of what an average American consumes.

 

Shocked ? You should be. Even if "renewables" were to go through 4 doubling from 4.5 to 9 to 18 to 36 to 72 kWh/day per person (which is highly unlikely in my view), it would still mean the average American would have to reduce their energy consumption by 71% (from 250 to 72 kWh/day). Forget running an electric car !

 

However it gets worse than this because not all the 72 kWh/day would be available to people. A proportion (perhaps all) of this 72kWh/day will have to be reserved to "renew" the "renewables" as they come to the end of their life spans.

 

(By the way, so that you can get a handle on the figures, 1 kWh/day is just enough to power a 40W light bulb for the whole day)

 

richcabot, when people say we need to go to the electric car the assumption is that we replace ICE cars for electric cars in a direct swap, that would be silly and probably impossible as you say.
Say the passenger task equals 100 transport units (passenger miles/kms etc) it could be achieved by by a direct swap i.e.  

like for like

99 units electric car

1 unit bikes walking etc OR

something like this: 

10 units walkable neighborhood

10 units telecommuting

20 units bikes/electric bikes

5 units electric motobikes

10 units electric buses

15 units electric trains 

5 units electric taxis 

10 units shared electric cars

15 units private electric cars 

or any other mix you like, much less materials required, much more efficient same goes for the freight transport task. 

 

 

One thing I have noticed is how much driving is done "for the children". We are dooming them to various troubles of instability by not changing.
My challenge to all is this : Try It. For One Year. You know it wont kill them, tell your spouse it is a learning and experiment, whatever you can excuse it as to do it. Say it is temporary, try for one year. Do not drive them to activities. Not to friends houses that is 20min, 1/2 hour away.  For one year, they can live without soccer, ballet, basketball, etc… Instead do things right there at home, together as a family and with neighbors, for one year.

This year, do not fly somewhere for vacation, save the money aside. Do a staycation or go somehwere a lot closer.

Have fun. Make art. Play loud music. make music. Cook cookies in the solar cooker. Make lemonaide. picnic on the front lawn and invite passersby to have some.

Power down. Choose to simplify and have alot of fun. Be expansive. Make fun projects from local materials. Play board games. Play tag. Play in the sprinkler on the lawn this summer. Sleep on the lawn after a campfire there even on a work night.

Let the neighbor kids come over and give them homemade frozen juice bars. Make tea for their moms. Get to know your neighbors.

Hang your laundry outside. Shower less. Unplug the TV and video game players and put in a box in the garage. For one year.

Use the time saved from not driving them so much to cook homemade, garden a bit. Do not buy the boxed premade foods. For one year.

Assess and the end, report back

Congratulations Chris for getting your foot in the door and being asked to contribute.  I hope you will become a permanent presence and advisor.
There continues to be articles in our local paper regarding the ongoing die-off of sea birds up here.  What does ecological disaster and sustainable transportation have to do with each other? I think it's the pursuit of "profit" and that means controlling resources. In my mind it's painfully simple.  Changing global focus away from profit to a healthy planet seems like a daunting task.  I can't think of anyone else I would rather have fighting for us and the planet than Chris.  I hope people listen.  

AK GrannyWGrit

here is one link to the riot for austerity calculator
http://greenknowe.org/r4a/

Barb is nice enough to keep alink to it. The goal is to reduce your total to 10 or 20% of US average, there are many ways to do this, we all do slightly different mixes.

 

my present snapshot m

Riot for Austerity Resource Calculator

Public Transportation: miles per person per Waste veggie oil: miles per person per Solar: kWh per household per Wind/Hydro: kWh per household per Propane: gallons per household per Heating Oil: gallons per household per Wood: cords per household per Used stuff: dollars per household per  
Transportation
Gas, diesel, biofuels: gallons per person per
  You have used 48.7 % of the national average for transportation fuel
US Avg.
Your Usage
R4A Target
Electricity
Conventional: kWh per household per
  You have used 22.1 % of the national average for electricity
US Avg.
Your Usage
R4A Target
Heating & Cooking fuel
Natural Gas: therms per household per
  You have used 4 % of the national average for heating & cooking fuel
US Avg.
Your Usage
R4A Target
Garbage
Garbage: lbs per person per
  You have used 4.4 % of the national average for garbage
US Avg.
Your Usage
R4A Target
Water
Water: gallons per person per
  You have used 0.0 % of the national average for water
US Avg.
Your Usage
R4A Target
Consumer Goods
New stuff: dollars per household per
  You have used 2.9 % of the national average for consumer goods
US Avg.
Your Usage
R4A Target
Food
Local, sustainably grown: % Dry, unprocessed bulk goods: % Wet goods & conventional: % Local & sustainable Dry bulk Wet goods
R4A Target
Your Usage
Overall (excluding Food)
  You have used approximately 13.7 % of the national average for non-food categories
US Avg.
Your Usage
R4A Target
ight be something like this, as my solar needs repair and I am not currently buying recycled veggie fuel, and I am driving an exchange student to school

 

 

Why in the world would you think there are only these two choices ? what about solar heat , passive direct solar gain? What about a regular wood stove ? O, a wood stove with built in mass, of which there are many types and designs ? what about all the plans for Solar air, thermosyphoned heat ?

Luke's Hypocaust reminds me of a Russian Fireplace, a central heat source that a small well insulated home was build around.   Exhaust heat and smoke from the firebox was routed through a circuitous path heating up a large thermal mass of masonry/stone/brick which would stay warm for many hours. 
These things are very heavy and are not easily added-on to an existing home.

 

I’ve read several papers that assert the late 1800’s.

Hi DDan,
The ph of the oceans is changing:
 http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php?p=2&t=63&&a=243
You might want to read this thread, from beginning to end; I did.

It is moderated by a real climate scientist :
 https://peakprosperity.com/forum/definitive-global-climate-change-aka-global-warming-thread-general-discussion-and-questions/71#comments
Thanks and good health, Weogo

I agree that there are more intelligent solutions than one for one swapping of cars. Although it improves things, I suspect there will still be a vast shortage of copper.
Regardless of how this might shift the demand for copper, the impact on infrastructure design will still be immense. The traditional urban/suburban model with people commuting in cars and mass transit is grossly energy inefficient. However, that’s how current housing is still being built today.
The required changes to come even close to sustainable living are far more fundamental than the vast majority of people understand. I think that was Chris’s real point. The time for incremental changes is long gone. Revolutionary changes are required. We’re still arguing with people who don’t want to even make the inremental changes.

This is great (albeit horrifying) information but I never quite know what to do with it. I've personally done what I can to reduce my energy use, but I live in a condo with my husband in a city just outside of Seattle. I walk everywhere I can, and my husband takes the bus to work. I grow a small amount of veggies, berries and herbs on our patio. I have a small community garden plot (not within walking distance though) and grow more there. I freeze, dry and can some food to use during the year. Storage space is limited, but I do what I can. We do have cars but drive as little as possible. We have family in the area and have no desire to move far away.
My husband already owned this condo before I moved in (and I was unfamiliar with our current predicament at that time). I'd love to move to a small homestead, and there are houses/lots within 20 miles that would fit the bill perfectly. However, we don't have the 700K to 1.5 million (at least) we'd need for such a place (nor do I wish to take on such a mortgage). My husband also isn't remotely interested in that kind of life (he's a tech guy).

So I do my best to be at peace with the uncertainty of our future as we head toward collapse. I work on emotional and spiritual resistance on a daily basis. I am increasing my skill set and adaptability as best I can. I nurture the relationships I have in my life and make efforts to be on good terms with my condo neighbors (not an easy task at times). I'd love to do more, but at least I am doing something.

 

 

 

I'm thinking you don't live very far North.  As Al said, do the math.

There isn't enough wood to replace the energy supplies we are currently using.

In the book "Collapse," deforestation was frequently one of the last acts of a collapsing society.

What's the point in surviving, if we cut down all the trees and drive all the animals into extinction?