We're Close To Your Last Day To Prepare For The Coronavirus

A cases continue to grow exponentially in South Korea and Italy. yesterday the US recorded its first coronavirus death on the continent: a 50+ year-old man in Washington State.

Meanwhile, most hospital systems in the West are woefully unequipped for any large influx of serious respiratory patients.

After dragging its feet for seeming forever, the CDC finally “allows” states to begin testing on their own. Why this took so ridiculously long is inexplicable.

For over a month now, we’ve been consistently telling you that you need to prepare for a covid-19 in your area. Now it’s getting quite close to the “too late” stage. Already many communities are experiencing runs on basic items like food and water.

Any actions you take from here on out need to be done ultra-responsibly and not contribute to the growing panic and hoarding.

From here on out, it's going to be about “mitigation” (not containment) and “non-pharmaceutical interventions” or NPIs. That’s a fancy way of saying no large gatherings, no school, and no unnecessary travel or contact.

Use this last bit of precious remaining time before supplies are gone to continue do what you can.

If you’re one of the many new readers here on Peak Prosperity, be sure you’re up-to-date on developments with the coronavirus. All of our latest covid-19 video updates, podcasts and articles can be accessed here for free.

And here’s a brief list of the more recent material that Chris and I have published for our premium subscribers, to give you a sense of what’s behind the paywall (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access)

This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://peakprosperity.com/were-close-to-your-last-day-to-prepare-for-the-coronavirus/

Was at the Costco in Missoula, MT yesterday. Very very busy, which is normal. They were sold out of thermometers and Purell. There were no masks, not sure if that was something they carried beforehand or not. Other than that the shelves were bursting with supplies. Maybe there was some tension in the air but certainly not outright panic. Not sure if this is the ‘last day’ to prepare, but as a citizenry we’re certainly overdue to get educated. With respect to being furloughed or facing financial ruin, it’s not clear how much most people can actually prepare for that, just gotta ride it out.

I agree. This is not the last day to prepare. It is just the beginning for many and honestly I am happy to see people begin to take this seriously. It means that we in North America will have a much better outcome than what has been seen in China as we have had adequate time to adjust to a potential shock.
Just talking to people on the street and in shops I notice that awareness is already high and many are taking steps to protect their health. The Chinese did not get this lead time and what resulted was panic in many cases. We cannot claim ignorance of the risks at this stage and our advantage will be what we have learned from the experience overseas.

Went to the main Target in St Paul at 7am this morning - the pain reliever and flu/cold sections were damn near wiped out along with other expected cleaning items, but the food was mostly well stocked. I didn’t think to ask I they would be restocking those items this morning or if they were totally out. I imagine the first local case(s) will spike local shopping.
My wife and I are supposed to fly from Minneapolis to Ft Lauderdale (thru KC) on Wednesday and I have been urging that we cancel/postpone the trip. She isn’t sold yet but the main reason we are going is to see her family including her elderly grandfather. I don’t think it’s wise for us to travel at all, especially going from airports to then see her grandfather over the few days afterwards. We are supposed to fly back next Saturday and I believe by then we’ll have confirmed cases in many more states.
Would love to hear feedback from commenters - to me it’s a no-brainer, we should put the trip off, but ultimately I’m leaving it up to her.

Yes absolutely. You should stay out of airplanes or any other transport where you are confined in a tight area with large numbers of other people. That includes buses, subways and trains. The virus is here now and incubating among the population. We cannot know how widespread it is but I think it goes without saying that your risk of catching it rises substantially by hanging around airports, clinic waiting rooms and bus terminals.
My local pharmacy had a sign on the window that said hand sanitizer was coming by next Friday morning. That should generate a long lineup that I think I will avoid. This is why it pays to be prepared if only because it gives you the luxury to avoid last minute panic shopping.

Vilbas, I got the same question swirling in my head. It’s really time to go (fly) and visit my aging parents. Don’t really feel like getting on a plane but…
what would the Honeybadger do?

I leave on Thursday out of Minneapolis Saint Paul to go see my dad in Arizona and I am also not wanting to fly and get on an airplane. My dad and his girlfriend are in their 70s and not in the best of health so it worries me. I do have a mask and plan on cleaning my area of the plane and will pray!

I too cancelled my trip next weekend to Cancun… I have other reasons for canceling besides the Covid 19, but I certainly would be paranoid on any flight and anywhere at this moment in time! Better safe than sorry!

I came across this web page from Chinese CDC and if you have not already seen it, scroll down to the charts, which are very informative.

I live in snohomish county, one of the new cases reported yesterday was a teenager in Everett about a ten minute drive south of the Costco I shop at. He got sick Monday and wasn’t diagnosed until Friday. Add in asymptotic spread and who knows how far this has gone. The first death was 1 hour south of us in king county. In the assisted living facility where that patient lived, reportedly 50+ people are symptomatic. The fire fighters who transferred him to the hospital have been quarantined. Hearing the news yesterday when I woke up I got right in the car and was at Costco when they opened for what I assumed would be my last chance to grab supplies. The shelves were fully stocked. As far as I could tell I was the only person in the whole store who was filling up on non perishables. Everyone else was out for a normal Saturday shopping spree. The checker said, “getting ready for something?” Seemingly oblivious to the fact that, yes I was and perhaps he should be too. I made a “joke” with the receipt checker that “guess I’m ready for a quarantine”. She nervously looked at me and said “you’re the third person to say that this weekend”. I laughed it off and scurried to my car.
im supposed to fly to Houston Monday for work. My wife and I have discussed it and I’m not going. I’m hoping my work will be understanding but given the response of the general public here in the hot zone, I’m not encouraged that my Midwest based company will appreciate my risk analysis. I will not allow my family to be separated from me by quarantine. I recognize it’s still a tail risk but it’s not a gamble I’m willing to take.

The conference was scheduled for this coming week - I was thinking you could use this for ammo with your boss:

The 2020 APS March Meeting is Canceled

Due to rapidly escalating health concerns relating to the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), the 2020 APS March Meeting in Denver, CO, has been canceled. Please do not travel to Denver to attend the March Meeting

I just came back from several stores. We live a very rural, self sufficient life as it is so sometimes I can get a little cocky about preparedness. We processed a young bull this fall so we have more meat than we can eat for the rest of the year. We also have chicken, rabbit, and lamb all in chest freezers. We have limitless well water from an artisan well that overflows even in severe droughts. Etc,etc.
But after watching this video I decided to go out and load up on some things. Soap, disinfectant, TP, flour, crisco, baking powder, Ibuprofen, fruit, canned goods, rice, etc…
We also run our hot water on propane so I refilled several 100 lbs tanks so we are good to go until late spring. Next up, fuel. I intend to stock up on diesel for the tractors, gas for the vehicles, and some grain for the livestock. Finally, a bottle or two of Wild Turkey and some beer because man does not live on bread alone!

So, I thought it productive last night to ask what event or at what point would her red-line be crossed to rule out air travel, and she wasn’t sure. Which is fair. She generally follows my lead on stuff like this and generally lets me do the news/threat following. Which is totally fine because I do enough for the both of us.
My main concerns are 1. picking up the virus and transmitting it to her parents/grandfather; 2. a blow up in cases occurs before our return flight home, stranding us, at least temporarily, in Florida.
I take mass transit each day to and from downtown Minneapolis at high-traffic times of day, passing right thru the U of Minnesota campus. We even had a worker return from China a few weeks ago, whose hand I shook, and I’ve had a weird sore throat(but no other symptoms) for the last 10ish days. I don’t think I have the ronus, but based on how health authorities have handled it, it is within the realm of possibility that I’ve been exposed. I don’t think the risk of spreading it, however small, is worth it. At all.
I understand how hard it is for average people to grasp that this is uncharted territory and that it is something that 100% should change your daily behaviors in a serious way. We here know that this is just the beginning, so we understand the severity of where this is heading.

They really believe they stopped a pandemic. They still really only think there are 60 cases in the US. In fact, I am sure there are more than a dozen deaths from this already in the US, which have been written off as flu. Possibly way more.
Also, they think this can only kill elderly people ( not just old healthy ) infirm people. Not just someone who is fully functional that appears healthy. I know their image of this killing old people is some old guy in a wheel chair that cannot get enough energy to walk to the bathroom on his own - or some person with HIV or on cancer meds - that have compromised their immunity. I am sure they are not thinking about the mildly over weight type 2 diabetes that is not insulin dependent ( looking at you mr president) … But that brings me to another issue. I want to know what the “underlying illness” is. I think its fair to know whether we are at greater risk/ do they include someone with ulcers as underlying health issues? how about gallstones? , arthritis, osteoporosis? mild hypertension? mild hypotension? nerve damage or peripheral neuropathy? fatty liver? Irritable bowel syndrome? Allergies without asthma? anxiety? depression? cluster headaches or migraines? enlarged prostate? is pregnancy a disease?
And finally, I recall seeing a study where only 1/4 of all serious cases had underlying health issues. And I do recall seeing a study that smoking was not clinically significant in the course of disease. And even those who died, less than 7% had underlying respiratory illnesses. You would think that would put you at the biggest risk.

Low hanging fruit for getting through this:

  1. Find some peace/quiet/stillness
  2. Don’t forget to laugh
  3. Stop obsessing and constantly updating. No reason to suffer mentally
  4. Get some sunshine and be outside as much as possible
  5. Be prepared but don’t forget to live

I was formerly a PP subscriber but have been off a few years. We had a tragedy in our family and I crawled into a hole for quite a while. That being said, after traveling to the USA recently, I returned to Costa Rica feeling unwell, mainly just fatigue, cough, and overall body ickiness, until two days ago, at which time I developed painful “stitches” in my chest and back. It has made breathing difficult at night, in particular, at which time my ox/sat levels seem to hover between 88 and occasionally up to 92. It has been scary at times, difficult to change positions, shortness of breath (due to pain - deep breathing, or even normal, seems to pressure the “stitches” to a high degree of pain), etc. I guess I would describe my overall situation as thus: very low-grade fluish in terms of body fatigue and “pressure/ickiness”, minor cough, but very painful “stitches” manifesting in the front and back that both are quite painful and can inhibit breathing.
During the day it all subsides a bit. It is all a bit weird, with seemingly very minor symptoms and yet very rough and scary nights due to shortness of breath and back and front chest pains…
I guess I could delve a little deeper if necessary, but just wanted to see if any of you guys feel I might be in jeopardy of having acquired the virus?

Suppose you do risk travel to visit an elderly relative, wind up contracting Covid-19 and, unfortunately die?
My mother has her 90th birthday in late April and my family, mostly who live near her, are throwing a birthday party. In order for me to attend, I have to travel 2,000 miles. I’m 68, so, based on current stats, my chance of dying, if infected, is somewhere between 3 and 9%. Do I increase my risk of dying decades early to attend one party, simply because it is the socially approved behavior?
It is not a cut and dried decision.
We are prepared, as much as we can be, without hoarding.

I am not sure if you have it. But I do not like the symptoms you are experiencing. They raise lots of red flags. I would get checked out… and do not bring up, coronavirus… that will make them think you are a hypochondriac … there are lot of those people out there that think they have everything that comes around… and unfortunately the medical community treats everyone like they are these types… DO NOT bring up corona virus… But seek help.

As you all know here, the authorities in most places are still thinking that cases will be those with a travel history to places where there is a COVID-19 epidemic, but outbreaks within our communities are probably already happening. I’m asking the question because it’s personal: I think a friend of mine may be a COVID-19 case picked in the community, but surely this is going to start happening to other people here. While the authorities don’t update their thinking, these people won’t be tested because they don’t fit the criteria. So what do you tell a friend? Especially if, as in the case of my friend, you know they are unlikely to believe that COVID-19 could happen to them.

With the shortage of N95 masks worldwide, I wonder how many times a mask can be used if it’s sprayed with a disinfectant like Lysol and allowed to sit idle for 24 days after initial and subsequent uses, allowing the owner to rotate multiple masks (24+) instead of replacing them constantly?