Costa, I would think you should certainly be tested. Is that possible where you are? your oxygen saturation seems at a level where there is immediate concern, according to the experts.
Lets compare this to a bad flu:
infections (330M x 10% ) = 30M
Hosptalizations ( 30M x .01 ) - 300,000
Deaths (300k x .01 ) = 30,000
Kung Flu:
infections ( 330M x 60% ) = 200M
Hospitalizations ( 200M x .15 ) = 30M
Deaths ( 30M x .02 ) = 600K
That leaves 329.5M survivors in the US… This is not the problem…otherthan you need to treat 30M instead of 300k ( 100:1 normally )
What happens with the second wave third wave? ADE that is the questions.
I have a theory , that Iran’s numbers are pretty accurate. They may have a much higher infection rate but the death rate is still much higher than other places. Why? Well lets look at MERS vs SARS. This iran wuflu is showing the same sort of difference between SARS and MERS as wuflu ( china ) and wuflu ( iran ). So there does seem some sort of relation… My theory is simple . When you wonder why a baby, 1-11mos , does not have issues with this virus , without a real functioning immune system, why would it kill ordinary people? Its because you must have been sensitized by a previous exposure. My guess is something in the middle east ( previous infection or vaccine ) has pre-sensitized this population… basically the ADE effect. SO, that is an game ender in the long run on second and 3rd waves… The first is an issue… but nothing like later - I cannot see this not being an issue down the road…
After further thought I deleted my post. You are right Les, decisions are so not cut and dried. There are risks of unintentionally infecting people which certainly offsets the positives to get-togethers. Ugh, no one wants to infect those they love, and others too. And we all need to evaluate our own risks.
More and more we each will be faced with decisions regarding travel and social exposure.
Thanks for responding. I am hospital averse; hence, not likely to get checked unless desperate (which I almost felt two nights ago!). I am waiting to see if the “stitches” subside or increase. My ox/sats do go up during the daytime, usually between 91-95. But my breathing is more labored at night as the pain increases with the breath. I do not think I have fever. No headaches or other symptoms. Just a very minor cough which seems to be subsiding as well. If not for the 3 or 4 spots on my chest/back flaring up and affecting the breath, I would not even bring up, of course.
I am effectively self- quarantined at home in the jungle for the time being…
Again, thanks for chiming in!
Thanks for your response! It is weird how the ox/sat levels go down at night, perhaps because of the shortness of breath (caused by the pain of the “stitches”), but go to 91-95 during the day. Clearly I have something, but intend to self-monitor for at least another couple of days, hoping the “stitches” evaporate. If it gets worse I will probably make my way to San Jose to get checked out.
Thanks again!
Our closest Costco is Tigard, Oregon which is in the news a lot. Yesterday people were going bonkers and they were only allowing people to buy two packages of toilet paper (and then they ran out). Tigard Costco is the closest Costco to Lake Oswego where the person with the community infection is. The news showed one woman that bought 100 thermometers - they shouldn’t allow that!
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032
‘Wash your hands and don’t panic’. We the doctors are here to help you…
Samoa has recently had to deal with a measles epidemic. They have a population of approx 200,000, 5,700 cases and 83 deaths. The Samoan Govt shut the country down for a week and vaccinated everyone who wasn’t vaccinated, thankfully it worked. The virus came from NZ (we also had/have an epidemic). In response to the corona virus they now require a medical certificate (issued in the past 3 days) before you can enter the country.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/119922535/kiwi-passengers-travelling-to-samoa-will-require-a-medical-certificate
That would be the various sex worker clusters in SE Asia, Thailand’s first among them. The Thai PM said there were 22,000 registered Wuhan tourists from Wuhan alone over the Chinese New Year holiday. Other sex tourism locations in SE Asia would have seen their share of the same. The sex worker populations would have steadily approached a 100% infection rate. The nature of their interactions means a nearly 100% transmission rate.
Another demographic that heavily interacts with this population are international businessmen who routinely order up ‘entertainment’ from their hotel rooms. This is an international clientele.
Flying from city to city conducting business and interacting with local sex worker populations, then flying to home to locations across the planet. Their normal prophylactic measures useless against the coronavirus.
A suggestion for those of you who have some garden space or even a few pots on a balcony. While there is still fresh produce at the store, consider stocking up on veggies that can be regrown. Green onions, cabbage, lettuce (romaine works best), bok choy and celery typically come with some of the root attached. Cut about one-two inches from the base. The base can be regrown in some water on a sunny windowsill and planted when roots appear (green onion bases can go straight into a pot). You can stock up and freeze or ferment the tops, then regrow the bottoms. While you can’t grow carrot bottoms or other root crops, you can plant a one-inch length of the top of the root for leafy greens to use in salads, stir-fries and as seasoning. I suspect that if travel really gets shut down, the fresh stuff at the market will go first, and it’s not gardening season yet in most places. This will help you carry over until you can start harvesting from the garden.
I wonder how many people are running symptomatic, or asymptomatic. I doubt any chance for any EU country to “control” this wildcard. Yet more past decisions coming home to roost…
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51687160Turkey says up to 30,000 could cross into the EU in the coming days
Greece says it stopped 4,000 attempts to enter its border
Great point. And how many of the 22’000 will admit this contact to their friends, family and doctors…
THE MOST INTENSELY INFECTED AND WIDELY DISPERSING INFECTIOUS VECTORS IN THE WORLD SEEMINGLY IGNORED. That would be the various sex worker clusters in SE Asia, Thailand’s first among them. The Thai PM said there were 22,000 registered Wuhan tourists from Wuhan alone over the Chinese New Year holiday. Other sex tourism locations in SE Asia would have seen their share of the same. The sex worker populations would have steadily approached a 100% infection rate. The nature of their interactions means a nearly 100% transmission rate. Another demographic that heavily interacts with this population are international businessmen who routinely order up ‘entertainment’ from their hotel rooms. This is an international clientele. Flying from city to city conducting business and interacting with local sex worker populations, then flying to home to locations across the planet. Their normal prophylactic measures useless against the coronavirus.
The information from this site, not comment section, this was either from Chris M., or the Rawles interview. So what you want to do, according to him, is to rotate. Have 9 or 10 masks and wait 9 days and then re-use. do not get it wet or in the sun which will wear it out quicker.
Now, here is me talking, so YMMV : Be careful when you take this mask off ! Know ahead of time where you are putting it to wait the 9 days. You will need to disinfect your hands/ face right after taking it off. You could take it off with a dedicated pair of dishwashing gloves that are clothes pinned up by where you store these masks while they let the virus die. In that case, disinfect your face, maybe with rubbing alcohol 60% or higher or hand sanitizer ( which is just thickened 60% alcohol)
Yep we are also in the Seattle area. Got stocked up when we first started seeing the news a couple weeks ago. Now just waiting to see what happens but people are acting normal. No panic or urgency in the people so far in Bellevue or Issaquah areas here on the Eastside of Seattle. Schools are not closing yet but we may keep kiddos out just in case. Hundreds if not a thousand or so in the area likely infected but not sure how serious it will get.
I just burst out laughing when I saw that picture of a cat with a mask in the hospital. LOL. Nice. But seriously, by the time this is all over none of us will ever feel quite the same about being around hospitals again.
It is the last place I would want to be.
On a different subject, we now have three people on this board today talking about possibly having Coronavirus or wondering if their friend has it. I think you are going to need a video and thread dedicated to just this one topic (Chris and Adam) because as this thing goes exponential there will be many more thousands of people searching for quick honest answers to questions about symptoms they are suffering.
Not many of us here are Doctors and I won’t pretend to be one. I sure would not be willing to answer any medical questions like those being posed about symptoms. Especially since it carries liability. How does that get handled?
Earlier this afternoon the governor of Rhode Island and the director of the Rhode Island Department of Health announced the existence of the first “presumptive” corvid-19 patient in Rhode Island. The infected individual had returned on February 22nd from a European trip that included stops in Italy. The person is “presumptive” because only testing done in Rhode Island indicated they had the virus. The state Department of Health is still waiting for the CDC to tell them if the CDC agrees with the state test results. The person is presently hospitalized and about forty people with whom they had contact have been asked to “self-quarantine”.
The “official” word to Rhode Islanders is that you need to “wash your hands” (governor said this at least three times), “stay home if you feel ill” and “do not go to the emergency room” Try to self-treat, then call your doctor who will tell you what to do.
Dr. Nicole Alexander-Scott, director of the RI Dept. of Health, in response to reporters’ questions, said several times that if you show no symptoms there is little likelihood of you spreading the virus. Therefore, they will only test people “with symptoms” for the virus. She also said that contacts of contacts (second circle of contacts) with an infected person have little chance of contracting the disease. When asked about what information is being given to health care providers like clinics and nursing homes the director said the message was “evolving.”
It is interesting (frightening?) that the good doctor’s view of the virus’s transmissibility is quite at odds from everything I have been reading on the web. It was also chilling to hear the official first defense is to have everyone wash their hands.
A little while later an article appeared on the web stating that the infected person had been on a school trip to Europe with a local high school group. The school acknowledged this on its website and also stated it would be closed for the next two days for “cleaning” to take place.
Rhode Island is small. Metropolitan Providence is even smaller. All this is taking place within ten miles of my house. I finished my last preps yesterday afternoon. There could always be more to do, but over the past week I had to make a list. I determined what was realistically possible and what was already beyond my reach and would just have to be let go. At least the realistically possible things got done. I will try to keep you posted as to developments in this little city-state as this drama plays itself out.
Chris was right. It was the last day to prepare.
JT
explore the 136 genetic variation of that thing which have been sampled to date … no data from iran yet
Ok, here we go in Finland, too. Six cases total, one of which is a pupil at a ground school (children ages 7-15) in Helsinki. 130 children and personnel in home quarantine for 2 weeks. However 1) not the whole school 2) other family members are not quarantined, and they are advised to wash hands frequently at home and use separate towels, and that’s it! We’ll see how that will work to stop the spread… not very likely IMO.
Although I’m not an ICU doc, I’d like to comment on the ECMO issue: that’s only for the most critical of the critically ill patients, whose blood can no longer be oxygenated with invasive ventilation. In my understanding most ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome, which is how this virus kills people) patients can be successfully treated with regular invasive/non-invasive ventilation. So there are more patient beds for the critically ill than there are ECMOs. Nevertheless, I suspect there is little extra capacity in ICU departments all over the world. I think some patients can be saved in a regular ward (even if they would normally fulfill ICU criteria) using cheap non-invasive ventilation (NIV). And just oxygen and supportive care, iv fluids etc are going to save many. But, if you just look at the numbers (R0, CFR, the proportion of severely ill), this is really bad.
Thank you once again for the excellent coverage, I’ve been listening to all of them.
Cheers, FF