I personally doubt that Crooks walked from the vendors to the AGR, since there are two fences in the way and the security should have picked it up if he scaled these. Hence the ‘parked at different places’ hypothesis.
If looking at the 16:26 video I in fact see nothing that could have stopped him at the magnetometers as well. It probably depends on how big the rangefinder is, because even in the dashcam video we do not see any equipment on him so it should be small.
I am willing to completely disregard the metal detector event as a mistaken identity scenario (again), but the media was at first quite in depth with this story.
In reading the NY Post article you sourced in your timeline, I saw in their timeline that they put the event security incident at 3 pm. That likely puts him going south toward the event parking to put the rangefinder in his car, fly his drone for 11 minutes, then head back north. That explains why he didn’t have his rangefinder on him when captured in vendor alley. I missed the 3 pm reference previously, so that changes my first sightings map significantly.
Now there is speculation what is meant with shortly by the FBI. In the news outlets, like News Interactive, they give the arrival time at 15:45. We do not currently have any indication how NI or FBI determined when Crooks arrived in Butler (Actually they say the rally site, but that is also vague).
It is possible that Crooks was already 15:00 at the magnetometer entrance, but that is contrary to the FBI statement. I can move the metal detector incident to 15:00, but then we should take into account that this would mean that Crooks was twice at the Vendor area. A detail I found in the Grassley documents is that the Magnetometers was scheduled to only be active from 13:00 to 16:00 which supports the 15:00 timeline, but is also very odd to not have it active until the event is finished.
I think we can agree that the drone did not fly near the security zone in the south. Too many people there and according to the action plan a priority zone. So it must have been to the north or north west. (North east had many trees so less likely in that direction). One thing also to note is that the FBI stated the drone was 200 yards from the Farm Show grounds, not the stage. This puts the drone further away than some people might think.
During a press briefing the SAIC gave the 15:45 time, but given that it’s a general time stamp I don’t treat it the same as actual sightings. Same for the security are time stated by NY Post as 15:00, which seemed like an abbreviated time statement. While I use those times on my map, I don’t view them generally as conflicting with actual sighting times. The Grassley document helps substantiate the 15:00 security are time.
As for the drone statement, I interpret that as the location of the drone, not the drone operator. It makes sense that Crooks wouldn’t fly it directly over the rally site where it would more likely be spotted. Plus, he only flew it for 11 minutes, which was after the security incident, so I get the impression he was just double checking something, or looking for police presence to avoid, not to scout out his shooting location. That he likely did on an advance visit. Regardless, Crooks could have been sitting by his car when he flew it, such as in the event parking lot.
Anyways, I’m still doing my analysis of the pre-AGR time period, keeping all factors in mind, especially as it relates to the rangefinder, backpack, and rifle. Sightings that do not show him having the rangefinder on him help to resolve the parking location(s), as does the backpack in determining where he hid it, because he retrieved it during the period LEOs lost sight of him. He was not seen with it before that time and was afterwards. Those clues are very telling. My point being, those things have to be considered in the context of all his travels, not just a single sighting. Everything will align once we get his travels pinned down more accurately. There cannot be a single conflict remaining.
See attached updated timeline document. Note that most of the speculation was cut from the document to not distract people when using this. Times that are not yet definitively confirmed I put a question mark next to show its status as questionable. Timeline.pdf (792.0 KB)
Take some time to ponder this slide, and THEN let me know what you think about the timeline regarding the alleged flagging of Crooks at the Secret Service security entrance. All I’ll say is “Queue Time.” Telling, right? It’s not just walking distance/time we need to take into consideration here, we also have to consider queue time.
Check out my timeline map showing the sighting without mention of a backpack, followed by the very next sighting where he has it. The time in between is when they lost sight of him. Why? He went to retrieve his backpack. Where would he be out of view of the counter-snipers, namely the 2nd story northwest window? Probably somewhere around the front of the AGR complex, possibly to get it out of a car parked within the roundtrip walking distance.
Yes, for now. In the After Report it stated they remained in their position. In a Sen. Grassley letter, it showed that window as their position. So, barring anything I learn during my analysis, that’s where I have them. Do you have any other information on their location?
only that the person said that the sniper was in the west facing window, a person who uploaded video, i will scroll up and have a look for it, or its in another thread…brb
If you are talking about Greg Smith’s video pointing to the west window, I’ve seen it. Which sniper was he specifically referring to? At what specific time did he see them? Without that I can’t use it to determine who was where and when. In my map I have them in the locations referenced in the after report, radio comms, and interviews. I have yet to do my deep dive on it, so I’ll evaluate Smith’s video against the timeline when I do. Another bit of information I’m missing is whether or not the two south windows are in the same room, or possibly all three windows.
i was trying to find the post myself, having trouble though…time will tell if the after action report is correct…but i would take a wager it isnt, specifically on ESU positions and who was at which window (butler V’s Beaver)
I have to start with the evidence provided, otherwise it’s just speculation, and not an analysis. Part of the reason for my analysis is to evaluate the veracity of the evidence. If you look at my posts above about the rally entrance queue time using RSBN screenshots and Jon Malis’ interview, I have raised doubts about the incident at the SS security area and the FBI’s statement about Crooks arriving at 15:45. This is a structured incident investigation and analysis process I have used for decades in my profession.
thats good protocol, but as has been shown with the video of crooks at vendor area context matters…as for the queue time i am not sure what that is about, but Crooks certainly wouldnt have spent time in a queue,.
