With over 20,000 people now confirmed infected, the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak continues increasing at (or very close to) an exponential rate.
And that’s based on official data from the Chinese. There are many reasons to suspect those numbers are low vs reality – possibly much lower…
As Chris explains, even though we'll have a lot more clarity on the coronavirus within two weeks, why wait until then to take action? The time to make your preparations for the pandemic arriving in your community is NOW.
Why?
Because the downside to preparing early is very low.
What’s the worst that could happen if you deepen your pantry now and turn out not to need it? You simply eat the excess food over time. Or you can donate it.
In contrast, the downside to preaparing late is extremely high.
The imperfect data we do have is extremely concerning. If more clarity with time confirms the threat, everyone will be rushing to grab the same supplies (think shortages, hoarding, fights, panic, etc).
Why risk your health and that of your family?
Stock up now.
Be sure to stay up-to-date on Peak Prosperity’s ongoing full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak by visiting here.
China’s Health Commission, which said on Monday that the coronavirus can survive for five days maximum on smooth surfaces under suitable circumstances.
Seems like we were all lamenting climate change not long ago and now we have a biological method to cut fossil fuel use, cement production and overall consumerism in major cities due to quarantine.
Chris, in my opinion, we don’t have a trustworthy numerator OR denominator in Wuhan, or in China, and so we can’t calculate a mortality rate. What can be said is that many people in China seem to get severely ill and require at least IVs, and often oxygen, and sometimes intubation. This is crashing their medical system, and if we see even a fraction of that here in the US, it will be a crisis.
Here in the US, some patients have required hospitalization (the latest two I know of in the Bay Area). In Germany, they seem very lightly affected but it looks to me like they did a better job testing everyone that came in contact with the initial patient, including well-appearing family members (as opposed to whatever we are doing here).
Also we don’t know what exact test everyone uses. As far as I know, PCR testing is notorious for missing patients, but then antibody testing when the “adaptive” immune system is inhibited (which evidently happens early on) is also unreliable. Some pathogens like Lyme Disease are just a headache to find sometimes.
So, everything we are guessing is tainted by the lens through which we see it. You can’t say that the mortality rate is over 3% as it’s abundantly clear that it’s hard to get tested in Wuhan right now. Many people not at death’s door are not getting a test. And you can’t say it’s above 3% because we are suspecting all the deaths are not counted either. And you don’t know whether these two trends cancel themselves out.
True deleveraging events only come around once every hundred years or so. The last great one took 25 years for the market to recoup its “losses”. The last one we had started in 2008. And, as a result Household debt loads haven’t been this low since the 1970’s. Because of that the market doesn’t look primed for another massive collapse. We had a major pandemic 10 years ago in which 11% to 25% of the population took sick. Granted the death rate was lower and the epidemic was slower to spread (but according to the news reports at the time it was too fast for the CDC to contain) We weren’t quarantined in 2009 but there were reports of Hospitals in America running out of supplies to H1N1 patients. My point is that the market didn’t collapse. It took a quick down turn and then the recovery continued. If you look at the market during the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918. Same thing, short panic and then recovery.
The economy will contract but when it stops it will come back. If the data we are seeing is correct somewhere between a 3% and 15% death rate of people whose ages average 55.5 then there is going to be a massive redistribution of wealth in this country from the rich to the poor and the rebound is going to be supercharged. The OK Boomer meme just took a very sad turn.
The housing supply in America is going to rise. Which could mean the end of the housing crisis … unfortunately most of the units are going to be predominantly condominiums in Arizona and Florida golf communities.
Short term - the reduction is particles in the atmosphere from the shut down of Chinese factories is going to increase the temperature. Long term, yes everyday with out full consumption is a gift much like every day of sobriety is a gift to the liver.
You’ve succeeded in scaring the crap out of me, lol. Can you push that back to two months, I was all set to put in some concrete and a new shed. I can stock up on food in late March much better.
(In case you didn’t realize this comment was meant sarcastically.)
ADDED: Don’t forget to pull several hundred dollars in cash from your account. There may be disruptions in credit card processing or atm withdrawls due to absent workers. Store clerks might not be able to ring you up but will always take a $20 to let you pick some stuff up.
The economy will contract but when it stops it will come back. If the data we are seeing is correct somewhere between a 3% and 15% death rate of people whose ages average 55.5 then there is going to be a massive redistribution of wealth in this country from the rich to the poor and the rebound is going to be supercharged. The OK Boomer meme just took a very sad turn.
Mike I'm confused as why you would think a large die off in over 55, would result in a redistribution to the poor. The few that are rich are going to gift their wealth to their heirs who are probably well off already. The vast majority of people over 55 are poor. They aren't going to leave wealth they are going to leave debt. Their homes are over mortgaged, their credit cards are maxed out. That debt is going to have to be written off by the companies who own it.
we are an elderly Pennsylvania small farm couple and after reading this we stocked up and could ride out a couple months. But January 24, before this was on our radar, we took a bus trip to New York. The museum was packed with Chinese people and we were all touching those same buttons that play the audio for the exhibits. Three days ago my husband and I started coughing and have relentless headaches. The visiting nurse said that my husbands lungs sound crappy but since there’s no fever there’s no need to do anything. We both had flu and pneumonia vaccines so it’s not the flu
Am I freaking out needlessly or could ncoV Be circulating under the radar ? If the nurse didn’t think we needed to see the doctor and there’s no fever then I probably am overreacting.
What would you do?
Stay hydrated, self quarantine and go to the doctor wearing a mask if there is shortness of breath or other severe symptoms. In the exceedingly small chance it is nCov, most people get a mild case, so the odds are in your favor.
I think about how exhausting it is to keep up with this situation. It is no easy task. Thank you all again (I am sure I speak for many others) for all you have done to keep us updated and to help us prepare.
You say you’ve had flu shots so it can’t be flu. This is incorrect, because flu shots only contain a couple of the viruses doctors guessed would be the most prevalent this year, and do not contain all the possible flu viruses that were floating around the country last year. Just so you know that you are not 100% protected by your flu shot. Since your husband’s lungs sound so bad, I would call around to different hospitals to talk to the on-line nurse (this is free) and ask their opinion. Having an elderly person with bad-sounding lungs is an entirely different situation than a young person with the same symptoms. Also, whatever you picked up in that museum, whether from China or not, still must be considered serious enough to get some second opinions (and third and fourth).
This is a great website and I enjoy reading the comments which are often very informative. Finally decided to join the discussion.
Some friends have shared amazing success curing pneumonia and bronchitis taking 5ml colloidal silver in a nebulizer several times a day. One started just as symptoms began and it was gone in a couple of days. Another had pneumonia diagnosed and knocked it out in 5 days. As I understand it silver nanoparticles work well internally, but silver ions don’t because they react with salts and become ineffective. Silver nanoparticles kill all virus, bacteria and fungus. Some recent literature has reported the first bacterial resistance to silver ions, but not nanoparticles.
We’ve exhausted our basic preparations are halfway through are no power 3 months situation. Now my thoughts are drifting to oxygen tanks and I v’s. Our kids will be traveling back to our home soon. To be ultra paranoid in assume that they may have caught it I’m trying to think ahead about facilities being at Max capacity. I should probly be able to self administer ivies and oxygen to them or me assuming the worst case scenario that we all get it. I don’t even know where to start on that I don’t know where to get oxygen IV bags accept her ex cetera
Some of the articles I’ve seen from the German patients suggested that they had mild symptoms, however they were able to shed the virus both before and after their mild symptoms. If this is correct, how atypical is this?
Most viral illnesses shed before symptoms begin, the only reason there is doubt on this one is because reportedly SARS does not.
Many infections including viruses can continue to shed after symptoms resolve, so not a surprise there either.
To the Pennsylvania elderly couple: does your visiting nurse have an oxygen saturation meter? Are you short of breath? I would not hesitate to seek care and please mention the Chinese people at the museum when you do. It’s not about panicking, this could be any sort of pneumonia, the vaccines do not protect you anywhere near 100%. Call ahead of course, And consider going to a hospital rather than your primary care physician’s clinic. Hospitals have infection control and infectious disease specialists who are much more likely to be up-to-date on something like this.
Though it is unclear who created the petition, it appears to be written by a student.
"At school, students would have a higher chance to get infected and would have less focus in class knowing there is a disease that is potentially 5 or 10 minutes away from entering our lungs. Studying while knowing that your life is in danger does not create a stable and safe learning environment and would make students take their mind off of studying which is a necessity to test scores," the petition states.
