Will You Starve to Death This Year?

The economy does not produce energy. It uses energy. It depends on energy. No energy = no economy. It’s a very simple equation really, and one that is easily intuited.

But somehow, we have unserious people making unserious decisions that will have entirely serious consequences and I’d like you to avoid them as much as possible.

Currently, diesel prices in the U.S. and Europe are signaling that serious shortages are now upon the western world. What does this mean?

Well, it simply means that less diesel will be used than before. High prices and actual shortages tend to have that effect. Which products or services will be diminished as a result? That I cannot say. Nobody can because our economy is actually a complex system which means it is inherently unpredictable.

Millions of independent decisions made by producers, consumer and transportation companies will combine into some sort of new behaviors. All we can do is know they are coming and watch them as they emerge.

For example, who could have predicted the sequence of events that caused natural gas to skyrocket in price leading key fertilizer companies all over the world to limit their production, if not shut it down entirely? How was it possible that various governments merely shrugged at this outcome and let it happen without using some of their free-spending habits to shore up this critical, vital component of farm productivity?

It would all be comically bad theater if it weren’t so deadly serious.

This fertilizer shortage – again, expressed as skyrocketing prices because supply, demand and price all balance out – has now translated into critical spring farming applications not being carried out, which in turn will result in massive food shortages and starvation later this year.

How bad will it be? We don’t know yet, but the early estimates place the yield declines at anywhere from 10% (for rice) to as much as 40% for Peru’s output.

To put this in context, note that each year supply and demand are very tightly balanced, and usually match each other with only a very low single-digit percentage variance.

diesel fertilizer

A 10% decline in yields would be devastating. A 40% decline would be apocalyptic. Anything in between and you can pick your own adjective.

Just as bad, and another piece of the puzzle few consider, is that while the weight of the harvest may only be down 10%, the decline in food quality may be as troublesome. Failing to fertilize spring wheat will result in a decline in its protein content leading to a much poorer food stuff.

Add it all up and what do we have? You need to plant a garden. Please. I’ve been saying this for a couple of years now, and I think the fact that global publications are all now mentioning food shortages should be sufficiently motivating to all.

Please. Plant a garden. Even a few planter boxes on a balcony. You can “go in” with someone nearby or join a local Community-Supported Agriculture (CSA) group or strike a deal with a local farmer. You won’t regret it.

It’s quite urgent that you do one or several of these things as soon as you can.

In Part II –for members only – I will talk about how the real estate market is poised for the biggest crash of our lifetimes. Far worse than 2008. The central banker’s bubbles are all crashing down and the signs all point to real estate having started its implosion. There are ways for you to protect yourself, but the timing might prove tricky, so we’ll engage the Peak Prosperity hive mind to prospect for the best angles and strategies.

This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://peakprosperity.com/will-you-starve-to-death-this-year/

Here Is My Effort

https://peakprosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/WhatsApp-Image-2022-05-01-at-6.55.40-PM-1651619751.7791-800x600.jpeg https://peakprosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/WhatsApp-Image-2022-05-01-at-6.55.41-PM-1651619801.4449.jpeg
Thank you, here is my effort. Hoping to buy the land next door to be able to extend this.


Russian Retaliatory Sanctions On The Unfriendly West Look Ready To Begin

@16 , just in time for your presentation this evening, Tass is reporting that today President Putin signed a decree instructing the Russian government to develop a list of individuals and entities that are to be sanctioned from the completion of existing contractual agreements, and from future agreements for Russian commodities, in order to protect the Russian government, people, and economy. Putin expects that list to be delivered to him in 10 days.
So far, the harm done to the West by sanctioning Russia has been self-inflicted. Soon, it appears, Putin’s retaliation will begin, and a number of countries are going to experience the power of commodity economics over financialization schemes.


Meme Time!

Sorry, 17 minutes in, I just HAD to pause and jump to a meme generator.
So apropos!


Love it!

Agreed. The west is self dismantling


Well done! Congrats.


Well it was your insistence at the end of each Covid update in the spring of 2020 that got this project started.
It’s such a simple idea really, but having moved here (to this more rural location in Valencia, Spain) from London, I was just used to buying what we needed from the supermarket!
We have always had a 3 month or more stored food buffer, but growing your own to supplement everything is such a simple great idea, I seemed to have completely overlooked this.
Now I am gardening like our future well-being depends on it!
My father who grow up during the great depression always had a vegetable garden, but as a kid and teenager I just wasn’t interested.
Now I feel that this is a skill that everybody should be learning.
I have spinach, bell peppers, tomatoes, potatoes, onions, strawberries, beans, 3 young orange trees and a mature lemon tree in those pictures.
Not bad for 4 months work, since moving to this property last year.
There is room for a chicken coup, which is built but not set up yet and I am hoping that we can expand this with purchasing the land next door, which would double the space.
Thanks for the foresight and explaining everything in such an easy way!



Grow Moringa. high in nutrition, high in protein, vitamins, minerals, anti-oxidants. You say you live in the freezing north? So What? Summer is coming. Moringa likes it hot, but summer is hot. Seeds available at Baker Creek rareseeds.com Grow it in a container. Clone it in September, get it to root and bring the clone indoors for the winter.


Reduction Of Fertilizer Emissions. Canada

Justin Trudeau wants farmers out west to reduce their fertilizer emissions 30% by 2030. Our governs causing food shortages.


Tilapia Pond

Has anyone started a tilapia pond? I hear it is cheap and fairly easy to manage. I started building mine last week with cinder blocks and clay. I hear they don’t take much room, and they grow fast. You can use their water as fertilizer on your garden beds, and you can grow a great source of protein in a small space. Seems like a win win situation. Has anyone had luck?


Have you actually gotten this to work? I would love to hear how you did it. For me, in the Hudson Valley of NY , Lady’s fingers (as the pods are called in Indian dishes)are a lovely thought… but unless you live in the right climate it just doesn’t work. I speak with sadness from experience.
When my offspring returned home from living in Southern India I was determined to grow moringa. It’s a key add in to so many foods. I actually got the seeds from Bakers Creek.
Well, there are just some plants we need to acknowledge are not happy being tricked. Moringa for me was one of them.

Add on. My comment wasn’t meant snarky in any way. Sorry if it seemed so. I really would love to grow it. And just couldn’t get it to produce anything worth the effort.

Interesting Dynamic - Last 6 Weeks - Us Exported Net 50 Million Barrels Of Diesel…

An interesting dynamic - I’m very curious to hear an informed feedback…
Is the USA energy export policy deliberately driving US diesel stocks down and thus domestic diesel price up…in pursuit of its anti-Russia stance…
According to the EIA, for the past 6 weeks (18-Mar to 22-April), the US net export of distillates (diesel) totalled NET 51 million barrels. At the same time US diesel stocks dropped by 5 million barrels. Estimated distillate fuel stock levels as follows:
03/18/22 - 112,135,000 barrels
03/25/22 - 113,530,000 barrels (increase)
04/01/22 - 114,301,000 barrels (another increase)
04/08/22 - 111,399,000 barrels (significant decrease)
04/15/22 - 108,735,000 barrels (another significant decrease)
04/22/22 - 107,286,000 barrels (another decrease
Net reduction over the period = circa 5 million barrels…but the US exported net 51 million barrels!
The short term effect is an apparent domestic stock and supply strain which is punishing the US population and business / inflation et al… At surface level, looking at the stocks and exports, it seems like a contrived and “by design” policy (…again…)
Although I completely agree with the current and future macro global supply strain narrative…the immediate situation in the US appears to be deliberately and politically made worse than it otherwise would be… Of course, no media outcries… Do I understand the situation correctly?
Would love to hear feedback to this…

1 Like

So It’s Been Cast

Europeans picked their poison and now they’ll be hungry and cold.
Same is coming our way, but we’ll be able to get away with more.

Overview Of Future Food Production Control

This article points out how Gates and Friends are moving food production toward indoor vertical growing…chipped livestock…proprietary seed ownership…genetically modified meat production ….and basically control over every aspect of food production.
It’s time to get a cow, some chickens, and start saving your openpollinated seed.
This report is fact filled and current.


That article is certainly motivating. Guess it’s time to get out into the garden. Those onions and strawberries aren’t going to plant themselves!

1 Like

If they weren’t factory farming they could easily do this reduction by methods used in the 50’s: crop rotation, strip cropping, intensive pasturing of fields in spring before planting and in fall after harvest, etc. Joel Saladin pasture methodologies work in fields too.

1 Like

California Diesel Prices

My cousin is a trucker and when I asked about the CA shipyard offloading issues (seemingly a lifetime ago now), he said they’re passing (or maybe just pushing?) “green” laws that only trucks that running on electricity can operate in the state. I know he’s been to CA in his own truck and I’m pretty sure it isn’t electric (or hybrid), but those prices could be California’s way of adding a little salt in the wound to that (maybe not so) sustainable idea.

1 Like

sorry but lady fingers in india refers to okra. the pods of the moringa tree are called drumsticks which they resemble.