Death rates will always change, as the variables surrounding them change, and how one decides which death applies, and which do not.
The death rate in one environment, or locality, shall be different from the death rate of another, for the same pathogen. There really is no universal death rate for any pathogen, as there are simply too many variables.
Some of these variables include the absence of accurate information, which may be by deliberate intention, or simply incompetence. The availability to advanced medical care, or the absence of it. Population demographics. Social conditions. Civic conditions. Education about the pathogen. Vaccine availability. (What good is having a viable vaccine, which cannot be produced in the quantities required for effective inoculation?) Cost of effective treatment. …and many other issues.
So, while a specific death rate alludes us, we may yet determine a meaningful range to this factor, which allows for the known variables. SARS-CoV-2, manifesting as COVID-19, will have a death rate much higher than the common flu, even if the infected are provided with unlimited medical attention, which is HOW the FLU is given a Death Rate of .1%.
How would the FLU death rate change, if NO medical aid is applied? Naturally, this .1% rate would increase. But, with NO medical aid…EVERY dangerous injury, illness, and infection, would also result in more fatalities.
Does one count only those who died while obtaining state-of-the-art medical support, and which were properly confirmed as dying from the results of the specified pathogen? Do we count the fatalities caused by secondary infections and illnesses, of the infected? What if a person dies from the effects of the common flu, but was also infected at the time with SARS-CoV-2? Do we count those suffering fatal heart attacks brought on by fairly mild symptoms of the virus, which they might have survived otherwise?
What would be the range in the Death Rate factor we can confidently apply to COVID-19? A Death Rate falling between 1-4%? 3-6%?
In any case, COVID-19 is MANY TIMES more deadly than the common flu, by ANY comparison. But, knowing the actual death rate will not allow you to avoid being killed by this pathogen, unless it motivates you to properly attempt to guard yourself from getting it in the first place.
What is the Death Rate for those welded into their homes in China? 100%?
We’d waste a lot of time of we started debating religion and politics here on PP. There’s plenty of other sites for that. Energy, Economy, and Environment are the topics here.
I always have to drizzle a bit of sarcasm on my comments, perhaps I should stop that.
We have 2 more than full time businesses and still spend many hours growing our own food. I also supplement from my “local farmers” far more than I should but they bust their asses and I love them to death. 4 of them total. Meat, eggs, starts, veges, etc.
It feels so good that I can’t even describe it. Was at one last night and they were doing work that was way outside their scope. They under took the task and were doing it well. THAT is what I am all about.
As you well know, my point was “Their going to HAVE TO.”
Be well and blessings to you.
Let’s say 80000 known cases in China ranging from mild to severe symptoms… —>100%
80000=100%
800=1%
lets say 3000 deaths
3000=3,75%
3,75 would be the death rate in this case… from all and only confirmed cases. And trusting to have received the right numbers…
The only thing wrong was it was inaccurate. Hate on Pelosi all you want but do it for things that are factually correct, not bad-faith political posturing.
Hi Members,
I’m new here as a subscribed member, and this is my first post.
I live in Orlando, and today is my first day of self-isolation. It’s only 10 am and already it’s hard. I keep looking out my windows at the outside world!
If anyone else is in self-isolation I would love to hear from you and what your experience has been or is like so far.
Thanks, and I look forward to being part of this dynamic community.
Cynthia
I can’t imagine those doors ever being opened again. Wait long enough, then burn or raze the whole building…more likely? What a horrible situation. Unthinkable.
Hello
I have orderd this also. A healthfood store owner suggested this.
Please don’t forget that when death rate is computed as # of deaths as of now / number of cases as of now, we are excluding those who are infected and will die, but have not done so yet. When cases are growing exponentially early in the epidemic and death typically occurs 10-20 days after diagnosis, this will lead to a significant underestimate of the death rate. This is because a large number of the total cases will have been diagnosed within the last 10-20 days. One better, but non-full proof way is to compute # of deaths as of today / # of cases N days ago where N is the average number of days from diagnosis to death for those who die.
China has effectively made it a crime (and potentially a risky option for any related family member) to talk about having the virus (it’s unclear right now what is happening to people the government counts as having COVID-19). I don’t see any notice of China asking people to come forward.
It would be nearly impossible to determine how many people are infected as a result. You’re likely safer at home (even if nearly dead)… I assume that China wants to keep their hospitals free of this disease if possible.
China didn’t even go through great lengths to disprove the “burned alive” stories, which I hope and assume are not true (but are bound to terrify the Chinese)
According to one popular history, Pale Rider: The Spanish Flu of 1918 and How It Changed the World, by Laura Spinney, there were very noticeable—and noticed—ethnic differences in mortality. “In fact, residents of Connecticut who were of Italian origin were more likely to die than those of Irish, English, Canadian, German, Russian, Austrian or Polish background,” writes Spinney.
According to historian Alfred Crosby, all immigrants were more likely to die of Spanish Flu (presumably due to immigrant poverty) but the mortality rate was far lower among English, Irish and German immigrants (that is: evolved to a cold, wet climate) than among those from Poland, Russia and Austria-Hungary. Among Italian immigrants, however, Spanish Flu was particularly acute. Crosby writes: The pandemic scythed through urban America’s Little Italies, and Italian-Americans had one of the very highest mortality rates in the entire country [America’s Forgotten Pandemic: The Influenza of 1918, by Alfred Crosby, 2003, pp.227-228].
A 1921 investigation into Spanish Flu, in The American Journal of Hygiene, reported ethnic differences in mortality from the virus, commenting that, in comparison to other immigrants, the death rate was “enormously high among Italians” but “lower than would be expected among persons of Irish, English and German stock,” presumably based on the mortality rate that poverty would predict [Influenza: An Epidemiologic Study, by Warren Taylor Vaughan, American Journal of Hygiene, 1921].
Another academic article, published in 1919, noted that Irish Americans seemed to be 75% less likely to suffer from acute influenza than Italian-Americans [Society Proceedings, Journal of the American Medical Association, 1919, p. 1548].
In Italy itself things didn’t go better : Our analysis suggests that 2·64 million excess deaths occurred in Europe during the period when Spanish flu was circulating. The method provided space variation of the excess mortality: the highest and lowest cumulative excess/predicted mortality ratios were observed in Italy (+172%) and Finland (+33%). Excess‐death curves showed high synchrony in 1918–1919 with peak mortality occurring in all countries during a 2‐month window (Oct–Nov 1918).
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4634693/
Good point. Thanks for the link.
Cj Sloane,
In Adam’s recent discussion with James Wesley Rawles, Rawles posited that a nebulizer and/or oxygen concentrator “could be the difference between life and death” for someone in the grip of respiratory distress. It’s basically a directional steam mask that can also infuse medication (colloidal silver, perhaps). I’ve never used a nebulizer, so I am eager to test it out if it ever arrives. I also ordered styling blue booties and a back-up Sawyer water filter after reading the interview transcript. Three is two, two is one, one is none.
Glad to here you are feeling better. Interesting info on virolence between China and Italy.
Welcome Cynthia et al,
Isolation shouldn’t necessarily mean staying at home. You could go for a walk, the library, museum etc. Just wear a mask and gloves. Getting outside and exercising improves health. Make a list of all those activities you would fo if only you had time.
What would you do if you had to quarantine at home for a few weeks?
If you are in a small apartment, lock down may be claustrophobic. Do you have a balcony or sheltered, private area, outside where you can get some sun? If you stay away, like twenty feet, from others, or go out for a walk at night, with few people out, you may be able to go outside for a bit. Be sensible. One thing, you are going to learn a lot about yourself. Most people can’t stand to be alone with themselves. Be flexible.
I am lucky, on acreage with locked gates. I plan to isolate but have been stocking materials for several summer projects. Good luck./
I do not have any medical background but will just put some info out here in case someone else has something to add or is inclined to research it further. My son uses a nebulizer for asthma… Ventolin ( prescription) added to the nebulizer helps the tight airways to open up a bit and drain the congestion when he has a respiratory infection. Does it therefore help with Cov-19? No idea. Pulmicort, a steroid is added to the solution and that decreases inflammation. Does that help with Cov-19? Don’t know but I did read something saying it lengthened the illness in some other virus (maybe it was SARS or another coronavirus…not sure) due to the steroid suppressing the immune system. I have also read about people using 3% saline in their nebuliser with no other medications in it. I use .9% saline for dilution and have never tried 3%.
It is always a mistake to divide deaths by known cases to fathom an actual death rate. You see, TIME is a critical factor. ANY continuous count of either the number of infected, or deaths, because of the progression of the disease over time, is not applicable to calculating a death rate for any pathogen.
80,000 infected. Some were infected in December, some were infected just last week. Some are still asymptomatic, some are still sick at home, some are sick in the hospital, some are in intensive care, some have been "cured, and some have died.
In order to discover the actual death rate, one must first establish a SLICE OF TIME to study within the infected case load, trying to establish a patient base of those originally exposed to the pathogen at about the same time.
Once a timed sample is established, one follows the disease progressions to their terminus, and note how many patients died, were cured, or were killed by secondary illness, infections, and other pathogens. Then, one could calculate the death rate for the pathogen to THAT specific location, or group.
We will NEVER come to know the actual death rate for this pathogen, we will only be able to roughly estimate it. The Pandemic of 1918 killed between 50 and 150 million people, out of a total infected population of a totally unknown number. What is it’s death rate?
Summer temperatures not enough to kill coronavirus: Taiwan Health Minister
When asked about whether summer can help stop the spread of the virus, Chen said that there is no guarantee and that the government "can only hope but not count on the theory." He added that most viruses are able to survive environments under 50 degrees Celsius, so summer temperatures are not enough to kill the coronavirus, according to the Liberty Times. Besides Chen, many Taiwanese experts have also raised concerns over the warm summer solution, pointing out that there is no way to be certain whether the coronavirus will retreat during the summer months. In a Facebook post Tuesday (March 3), WeatherRisk Explore Inc. President Peng Chi-ming (彭啟明) warned that the new disease should not be tackled with traditional methods and that the public should be ready for a long-term epidemic battle, reported Storm Media. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3885090Hi Sharon,
I did a quick search but couldn’t find any studies on the antiviral effects of Monolaurin. Could you direct me to anything?
Thanks, E.