Pence and Trump keep saying there was some major quarantine and massive travel ban that took place. The only quarantine that took effect was for repatriated workers from wuhan. The travel ban was only applicable to people coming from china that were not citizens or greencard holders… Citizens and greencard holders could come and go to china all day long - and they did. They could get on a plane in china fly to the US and walk through customs without as much as a contact number - it there is a video of guy showing this. Meanwhile in my wife’s home country ( former USSR country ) everyone coming in from another country simply goes to the quarantine hospital. yes an actual hospital for isolation - used only for travelers for this purpose not shared with anyone else. That is the way its done. and wonder why most of the former USSR countries besides a few that are now EU… have zero out-break… I do not think they will be outbreak free - forever. But they will buy themselves time. The US will be a Shit show… and the GOVT and officials here well knew it… It is part of the plan to either have the 1% fleece the remaining wealth. or to eliminate the largest burden of disabled, sick , medicare , ssa eligibles. ( the idea is to collect taxes but pay no benefits )
Per Ford Brewer MD MPH, “And so why am I focusing on that? This is a disease that focuses on the lungs. So, therefore, it’s aerosol droplets. And, again, so therefore a mask should be the most important thing… Even for aerosol type of transmission, the major transmission for these things tends to occur when stuff gets aerosoled or it gets on peoples hands and you touch surfaces. So, again, focus on that point.”
FYI, he does also discuss the importance of hand washing with soap and water for 20 seconds and self-isolation, among other things.
The above quote comes from 15:10 in the following video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-6z_S9Fgh0
I am in agreement on both big farms and the need for people to be able to do things for themselves. Specialization is for insects.
I have gone to self isolating at least to the degree of minimizing trips to town and social interaction. I will be growing a massive garden this year(1 acre for one person= massive to me). I have been working on a orchard for the last 1.5 years or so and will unfortunately be putting much of that on hold as I anticipate the garden will keep me working sun up to sundown. Putting up a gate on the driveway as soon as the ground thaws. I am blessed with a nice sized chunk of land, good soil, rolling hills for my orchard, woods and a mostly private lake. I have resources, I plan to use them, and plan to work very hard. This all works within my long term plan to build a business from what I have so only a bit of a tweak in the plans for this year with the caveat that since I will be out of the workforce for the interim, so on a budget but well provisioned and get to spend extra time and effort on the farmstead. Doing seed starts this week, got some more trees to clear and stumps to pull while I wait for ground to thaw and warm up. Hopefully getting a greenhouse put together soon and maybe a high tunnel in the near future. Lots of work to be done. Good luck in your efforts sir.
Yep, Sparky1, I’ve had the same experience. Doesn’t work for me, but I see some on threads.
Yes you cannot divide cases by deaths. It misses the lag time of course of death. For instance dr li died on Feb6 and first became ill on Jan 10. He was recorded as a death on feb 6 but divided against cases found by feb 6… he was actually a death from cases counted by Jan 10th.
However, do not fear. We have the closed slice you speak about. Its called the disaster princess. Its a finite amount of population … it has not completely played out - its death rate is now at about 1% and can only go higher not lower. And I believe the people on this ship will receive care beyond ordinary due to the press and importance given to these publicly famous people. So, this is a random sample of population its not some sick infirm nursing home - though some people may disagree and say a lot of elderly cruise… yes a lot way healthier than I am . I am only 54 and i have been unhealthy due to genetic illness since 26. And for years drs said i had nothing but depression about 30 years to get diagnosed… so, if the medical establishment can see you are not unwell and call it depression. I cant be that sick? but I can tell you I would never be able to go on a cruise or travel. So to me they are not infirm. And even with my condition, as it does not really effect immunity and its not heart disease, no one has said that i am susceptible to complications due to infections. In fact , I have no issues with infections ever. And have only taken antibiotics for preventative measures of dental work. Anyway. my point is simple. I think the disaster princes is a fair sample of “GENERAL” population. We have a 1% CFR now. and many critical serious and we have very few resolved. and a couple more cases added recently… This will play out and this will be a better picture - but I caution one thing. I think the CFR will be lower than real -because these people are celebrity status, and will get superior care the masses will not.
All of the numbers we have to work with in calculating case fatality rates or ultimate death rates for this virus are skewed in various ways.
- As if mentioned often, there are an unknown number of mild/asymptomatic cases that would tend to pull down the case fatality rate. That said, the sampling on the cruise ship from hell and in South Korea (sect members) are as close to full population sampling as we can get. The cruise ship had a population skewed to the older side than the general population so mortality should be overstated but recovery or eventual infection seem to take an eternity to resolve…
- China has the largest sample set for calculation which is good…except that trust in those numbers is exceedingly low.
- Italy has an increasing sample that is more trustworthy but they have changed their reporting methods to not count asymptomatic cases (as I recall).
- The US and many other nations have had the don’t test don’t tell policy. The spike in deaths in the US does not lend confidence to this strategy. Cases are massively understated making the death rates overstated (we hope)
- Singapore and Hong Kong (maybe Taiwan) seem to be state of the art for detection, containment and treatment. Perhaps the best case scenario if such facilities are available.
- South Korea seems to be doing a great job of sampling but they don’t seem to be working at updating the serious/critical reporting and it seems they either don’t report or are very conservative about calling anyone recovered. If you just used resolved cases (76) in South Korea the case fatality rate would be 35/76 = 46%! Nowhere has anything that catastrophic appeared so obviously we aren’t getting the full story.
The point is that all the numbers are ‘squishy’ and prone to revision at some date in the future. The one thing that is clear is that deaths and hospitalizations are too danged high for any government or population to feel comfortable with. Comparing to the Swine Flu, there are already >3x as many cases for this point in the outbreak (day 53 - see here under more graphs) and 22x as many deaths. These are still the early days.
I am all for self-sufficiency. I think in the future we will go there after the 4th turning and apocalypse. ( its coming ) I wish I had land like this. But its gotten so expensive for even garbage land. But you can see how states and counties are stopping people from living off the grid… even saying they cannot capture the water on their land - and cannot generate their own power. people are being arrested for self-sufficiency in some parts of the country. its really disgusting… US is shithole… and hope it will die soon.
That may well be a correct assumption, but I also don’t believe the cfr to be a static number. My overriding concern almost from the start has been the knock-on effects of the virus. Not that the virus shouldn’t be taken very seriously, of course it should, but I believe the consequences and subsequent reactions will be the real calamity.
I know a lot of american officials stating that the death rate is low like the flu - because in china the numbers are much higher because they would not count mild non serious cases… only cases seeking help. That is not true. The chinese went door-to-door checking temps - temps every where - people are paid to turn in sick neighbors etc. I am sure some were missed. But I do believe the death rate is at least 2-3% with lags We still have half the people unresolved. ( that is a problem ) and we are now learning resolved cases can become active again… another problem.
Although there are a good number of good and decent people here, one must concede that we are being overwhelmed by people with no moral code.
I’ve already had my run ins with the government, whose only job is to protect my rights, and lost. Had 13 acres forcibly stolen from me. A few years back now, got my property tax statement, noticed that my listed acreage had gone down by 13 acres. Called around to get answers, talked with estate lawyer, did my own research and long story short, it will cost me thousands of dollars to buy back my own land that was taken from me with no notice, no compensation, no imminent domain(which I vehemently disagree with), and no one could tell me how it happened. I am currently pursuing outside help or alternative solutions. I would like to see people held accountable and justice done. Without property rights, we have no rights.
I’m all for 100% real capitalism and free markets…now, if only we could find it somewhere. In a question of individual rights being subservient to perceived collective need, well, the road to hell is paved with good intentions. Unfortunately, good intentions don’t mean shit. The laws of nature don’t allow for it. Actions have consequences.
In these video I very often miss the references and sources. For example, the news about the Red Cross Hospital in Beverwijk (Netherlands) is nowhere to be found. The same about the info about the RIVM . What are the sources for this? Or do we have some good examples of fake news here?
as Dutch member I can confirm both stories
If you want to find/read the official statements you need to use dutch language
https://www.noordhollandsdagblad.nl/cnt/dmf20200303_30473609/opnamestop-op-intensive-care-rode-kruis-ziekenhuis-beverwijk-vanwege-besmetting-coronavirus?utm_source=google&utm_medium=organic
https://www.rivm.nl/coronavirus/covid-19
bbtruth
There are two classes of people that the law does not apply to. The Rich and the Lawbreakers/Criminals who are often very successful. We taxpaying honest folk are penalized.
I dealt with the State and reminded them a copious amount of times that less than 1% of land in Alaska is privately owned. But there are no State agencies whose job is to help and protect landowners. (Not that we ever really own the land anyway or anything for that matter) Now if only I had deep pockets and a team of lawyers I could wreak some havoc!
One can dream.
better example of a moronic government:
A teacher from a school came back from Italy. His wife and 2 kids got a fever and fell sick. The RIVM said they didnot meet the requirments for testing. He informed the school management, they saw no problem. After 1 week of teaching he is now in quirantaine
My hits aren’t registering either.
They count on you not being able to marshal those resources in order to fight them. There is a video somewhere floating around of a well to do property owner in Texas that stood up to the powers that be in court and they were astounded to find out that someone they assumed powerless to fight them, did so. They were recorded as saying as much. They openly admitted that they do it knowing most people can’t afford to do anything about it.
Coronavirus hits New York family as U.S. cases rise; lawmakers reach funds deal
"Three family members and a neighbor of a New York man infected with the new coronavirus have also tested positive, officials said on Wednesday, and the number of cases increased across the United States. "
"New York’s Yeshiva University said one of its students had tested positive for COVID-19, and it was canceling all classes on Wednesday at one of its four New York City campuses as a “precautionary step.”’
“On Tuesday, officials said a man in his 50s who lives in a New York City suburb and works at a Manhattan law firm tested positive for the virus, the second identified case in the state.”
“The four new cases include three family members of the man, who is hospitalized, New York Mayor Bill De Blasio said in a statement. Health authorities said one of his children was a student at Yeshiva. The fourth was a neighbor of the infected family, bringing the total of confirmed cases in New York state to six.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/coronavirus-hits-new-york-family-as-u-s-cases-rise-lawmakers-reach-funds-deal-idUSKBN20R28H