Whew, thank you for clearing that up, that you live in Alaska, AK. I thought the AK stood for AK-47.
I searched as well and found this - seems like it’s worth adding to the arsenal of anti-virals given it’s wide availability and ultra safe use profile. Just buy the solid coconut oil and eat some!
https://www.icp.org.ph/2020/01/the-potential-of-coconut-oil-and-its-derivatives-as-effective-and-safe-antiviral-agents-against-the-novel-coronavirus-ncov-2019/
Conclusion Several in vitro, animal, and human studies support the potential of coconut oil, lauric acid and its derivatives as effective and safe agents against a virus like nCoV-2019. Mechanistic studies on other viruses show that at least three mechanisms may be operating. Given the considerable scientific evidence for the antiviral activity of coconut oil, lauric acid and its derivatives and their general safety, and the absence of a cure for nCoV-2019, we urge that clinical studies be conducted among patients who have been infected with nCoV-2019 (see below). This treatment is affordable and virtually risk-free, and the potential benefits are enormous. On the other hand, given the safety and broad availability of virgin coconut oil (VCO), we recommend that VCO be considered as a general prophylactic against viral and microbial infection.
News stories I’ve read quote family members of the nursing home victims. Most often stated is they are worried about the old folks, but not themselves, because, “I’m healthy.”
I just got off the phone with my Seattle shoemaker. Sent a couple of pairs up there to be orthopedically modified. I questioned the woman I spoke with about local health concerns. She seemed a bit worried but had made no preparations or bought gloves, etc. My impression was, the virus is only in old people on the other side of the lake. She said, “It seems kind of bad.” The President has said he may isolate hot areas. Seattle would not be hard to isolate. Blow a couple bridges, station nat. guard and police. Seattle loses trucking supply in a bad snow storm. I gave her some helpful info. and PP site. The populace is way too complacent.
Almost everyone has a cell phone and I imagine they typically “touch” their phones several times (even 100’s of times) throughout a day.
You can download lots of books from Amazon or your local library. You can walk outside if you stay away from others. Use gloves for all door knobs, of course. I have a Scrabble board and Monopoly–one person can play as two people. I also do lots of jigsaw puzzles. The Internet has lots of brain games to try. I keep in touch with people of like mind and interests. Join a new club online.
And for 50 good reasons (the “long train of abuses”).
”We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.””Happy Hunger Games! And may the odds be ever in your favor.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-j972c-yynY
A man who visited the Seattle-area nursing home linked to seven coronavirus deaths flew home to Raleigh on February 22 and just yesterday tested “presumptively positive” for the virus. That’s a 10-day gap. He is self-isolating at home. The Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill CSA population is ~2 million and is highly mobile.
Authorities were quick to reassure an unsuspecting populace:
An RDU Airport press release stated that the man was asymptomatic on the flight, so, per the NC health department and the CDC, he did not pose a risk to other passengers at the time. An explanation of the extremely low risk of infection in airline cabins followed. Comforting.
https://www.rdu.com/covid19/ https://www.ncdhhs.gov/news/press-releases/north-carolina-identifies-first-case-covid-19Then Governor Roy Cooper said state officials are trying to find all the man’s contacts for additional screening. So is he a negligible risk or highly infectious? The Wake County public health director emphasized that asymptomatic spread was unlikely and that he is not checking the flight manifest or airport employees who may have been in contact with the man.
https://abc11.com/5982249/ https://abc11.com/5984946/I was surfing some cruise ship aggregate site … found some interesting things on Cruise junkie:
February 29, Emerald Princess, Arrives in port early – four pax removed to ambulances
CBS reports on Friday night, the Emerald Princess came into port — hours before its scheduled arrival. The Los Angeles City Fire Department said it received a call for help just before 8 p.m., deploying four ambulances to Berth 93. When paramedics arrived, two people had suffered unknown injuries on the ship and two others were suffering from unknown illnesses. Those four patients were taken to nearby hospitals without lights or sirens. The ship was scheduled to return tomorrow from a 28-day trip to Hawaii and the south Pacific and the illnesses were not related to the Coronavirus. The Port of Los Angeles police said all of the remaining passengers were being kept on the ship overnight because they cannot get off without going through customs, which will not be staffed until the morning.
March 1, Carnival Ecstasy, Delayed departure
First Coast News reports officials with the Carnival Cruise Line confirmed a delayed departure from Jacksonville Saturday is not connected to Covid-19. First Coast News received multiple calls regarding a Carnival Cruise ship that was supposMed to depart Jacksonville at 4:30 p.m. but still remained at the port as of 5:30 p.m. Viewers reported seeing fire trucks, ambulances, a hazmat team and one person taken from the ship via ambulance. Some worried it may be connected to the coronavirus. Shortly before 6:30 p.m., a Carnival spokesperson said that is not the case and that the issue was the result of miscommunication. The spokesperson said the cruise line was trying to get a crew member to a shoreside hospital “for rather routine medical observation and this was not a suspected Covid-19 case.” The spokesperson said the crew member had not visited any regions affected by the Covid-19 spread in the past two weeks.
March 1, Sun Princess, Met by protestors at Reunion Island (health concerns)
Daily Mail reports the ship was greeted by protesters who threw stones and screamed at the crew as they tried to dock in Reunion Island because they thought the ship was infected with coronavirus. Police were forced to use tear gas to end the ugly clash after 30 locals from the French Republic, east of Madagascar, gathered as the Sun Princess docked on March 1. Protesters were concerned people on board could be carrying coronavirus after the ship docked in Thailand in early Februar
March 4, Grand Princess, COVID-19 outbreak/quarantine?
The following is posted at the Princess website: Last night / early this morning, our chief medical officer Dr. Grant Tarling issued this Health Advisory Letter to guests and crew currently sailing onboard Grand Princess. A similar notification has been emailed to guests who sailed on the previous voyage. Guests Health Advisory – Coronavirus: I wish to advise you that today we have been notified by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that they are investigating a small cluster of COVID-19 (coronavirus) cases in Northern California connected to our previous voyage that sailed roundtrip San Francisco from February 11 to February 21. We are working closely with our CDC partners and are following their recommendations. For those guests who sailed with us on our previous voyage, in an abundance of caution the CDC requires you to remain in your stateroom until you have been contacted and cleared by our medical staff. A member of our medical team will be calling you between the hours of 8:00 AM and 11:00 AM this morning. You may order room service while you wait for the medical screening to be completed, and we apologize for any inconvenience. Also see here.
Speaking of cruise ships…
California officials announce 1st death in state
“Washington state has reported a 10th death from the new coronavirus and California announced its first.”
“Health officials in Northern California say the elderly man who had other health conditions died Wednesday at a hospital in Roseville where he was in isolation.
The man was likely exposed to the virus while he travel in February on a Princess cruise ship from San Francisco to Mexico, officials said in a statement.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/the-latest-california-officials-announce-1st-death-in-state/ar-BB10IPpC?ocid=spartandhp
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Government official states asymptomatic spread unlikely.
I thought the potential for that had been well established.
My mind becomes more boggled each day.
Our government appears to be behind the curve every step of the way.
…and I may be about to become a farmer myself.
Had a meetup with the inner circle of the family of the woman I have recently begun dating. They have been resident in my area for 50 years, and own a few patches of land that are well-suited to cultivation of food crops (and here on Maui, we have a 12-month growing season). They are all up to date on COVID-19 and making final preps to go self-quarantine and begin intensive cultivation of their own food forest-type thing. They have neighbors higher up the mountain (Maui is basically a giant mountain out in the middle of the Pacific) who have cattle, pigs and deer (and therefore beef, pork and venison), and neighbors downhill who fish. They intend to facilitate trade in both directions, just as the ancient Hawaiians did (do a search on “ahupua’a”). The point of the meetup was for the fam to take stock of where they were in their preps and to pass out final to-do lists to everybody in the family (other than the young and very pregnant woman who’s marrying the son of my lady friend later this month).
Funny how life goes: just recently this woman and I decided to go from casual dating to a committed relationship. Then along comes this virus. I am meeting the family again tonight so they can take my measure and see if they’d enjoy having me – and my ex, and our 3-year-old son – join the team. It helps that I’ve been prepping for this sort of scenario for over a decade now. It also doesn’t hurt that my son’s mother is an RN.
So yeah, funny: after going to a fancy college and traveling the world and working for some elite firms in NYC, I eventually move to the most remote place in the world and might just end up farming for a living. My grandparents (RIP) are laughing their butts off. I must admit to wearing a wry grin as I type this.
And, just a thought: my sweetheart’s son is getting married in 2 weeks, and his fiancee will bear their child in May. This whole pandemic thing may seem grim but never lose sight of the fact that life does go on. In between the prepping and the vigilance, PLEASE my friends, take time to enjoy the little things, and take care of yourself. It’s all a dance, and in the long run we’re all perished. Remember to enjoy the journey, ESPECIALLY in grim times.
VIVA – Sager
It is obvious that the US is the embarrassment of the world with the handling of the virus we have CFR around 15%. And meanwhile media and journalists and drs said oh this cant happen to the US we have medicine , no one will die of this here. that is poor medical care in other countries… not the US we are the best.
However, what sickens me - and i know how bad medicine in here and i predicted this and got into a pissing match with a journalist a month or so ago about this… but what sickens me most is - the level of standard of care… Even if you didnt know it was the wufle, and you couldnt test for it… If a guy comes to er and presents with severe ARDS or pneumonia , you would think you would still admit him and care for him. But what has obviously happened is these people were not even cared for their presenting conditions. This is demostrated by the quick time from diagnosis to death as in the recent cases of deaths including NC… by the time you diagnose him he is dead. So, what chance of care did these people have. I thought we would have had to have an overwhelmed system before we saw needless deaths that could be saved. But now we have needless deaths while having an underwhelmed medical systm… We can have a 20% death rate here… with this level of treatment… the drs complain in the handling by the US govt and the CDC… they are just as incompetent… need to clean house of all of them… they are dont deserve a paycheck…
We have to help ourselves - our advantage is better information. Along those lines, here is the latest Medcram video by a Pulmonologist. The conclusion is everyone should be taking a small, ie. 20 - 50 microgram Vit D supplement. This Dr. also supports the conjecture that the seasonal variation may have more to do with lack of sun/Vit D deficiency vs. the idea that the virus is killed in the summer heat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmqgGwT6bw0
I like to keep things simple.
We will know that our politicians are honorable and have integrity when they have the same medical care we do.
Instead of free for life.
And anger can be a catalyst for change. But with legal pot and Netflix, why change.
We have a ways to go yet. But then if you can’t pay the cable bill people will get cranky.? Will be an interesting decade.
Although I have been keenly interested in emergency preparedness for some time, this is the first time I have seriously paid attention to pandemics.
I appreciate the thoroughness of the Peak Prosperity coverage of the situataion worldwide and especially so early in the beginnings of the Huwan Coronavirus pandemic.
It seems to me, though very interesting, to be a difficult thing to get a handle on the actual number of infections, the R0 numbers and mortality rates as a function of infections. Things like the cases being tested, the efficacy of the testing, diagnositc criteria, etc. all seem to vary. The question in my mind is as to whether the economic impacts will be greater than the impact of the disease itself if we overreact. So the question is whether the overall mortality rate will be greater than say the number of deaths from influenza every year.
For me it seems more instructive to look at mortality rates in countries where the reporting is more honest than in China and try to model where things are headed. Though, being naive and inexperienced on this topic, I have, never the less, made a crude attempt to use a simplistic model of the mortality rates in Italy to track their progress against this simple model’s projection. The Model based on Cummulative Deaths = e^(.4*number of days) Note: .4 corresponds to a doubling every ~2.45 days and is just a crude eyeball best fit of the data that was available on 3/1/2020.
Date 2/20 2/21 2/22 2/23 2/24 2/25 2/26 2/27 2/28 2/29 3/1 3/2 3/3
Actual 0 1 2 3 7 10 12 17 21 29 34 52 79
Model 1 1.4 2.0 2.9 4.1 5.8 8.2 11.6 16.4 23.3 33.1 47.0 66.7
Date 3/4 3/5 3/6 3/7 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/14 3/15 3/16
Actual ?
Model 94.6 134.3 190.6 270.4 383.8 544.6 772.8 1,096.6 1,556.2 2,208.3 3,133.8 4,447.1 6,310.7
Date 3/17 3/18 3/19 3/20 3/21 3/22 3/23 3/24
Actual ?
Model 8,955.3 12,708.2 18,033.7 25,591.1 36,315.5 51,534.2 73,130.4 103,777.0
This simple model would put the death toll in Italy at over 100,000 by 3/24 due to the Huwan Coronavirus and over a million by by the end of this month. This would only be possible if the entire population became infected and the mortality due to the virus was approximately 1,667 deaths per 100,000 infections ( 1 Million deaths/60 Million People in Italy)*1000.
Hopefully with warmer weather, a better awareness and understanding of the virus, containment, more self isolation, less lethal mutations, etc. this will not be the case. So far, though, going on 14 days into the model the actual data seems to fit. I plan to do similar exercises (using excel spreadsheets and charts) for other countries if time allows. Pray for the Australians as there will be no mitigating warmer weather for them for well over 6 months. Obviously we need to be vigilant here in the US as well as we are probably only a week or two behind Italy.
Actual data source John Hopkins:
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_19-covid-Deaths.csv
I had planned to vote by mail in the California primary but missed the deadline, so had to go in person. Previously, our polling place was in a large neighborhood church, staffed by many volunteers with many polling booths available. This year my polling place was changed to a nearby senior living facility. The polling area was beyond the main large dining are, tucked down a hall, in a small room two doors to the right. There were only four volunteers (2 elderly), two tables on which to complete the ballots, and one voting booth. There were probably a dozen people crammed in the room. Thankfully, no one was coughing or sneezing while I was there.
I was the only person in the first floor of the facility wearing an N95 mask and gloves. I received a lot of strange looks but no one ventured to ask why I was wearing them. (I should have worn goggles, but I couldn’t bring myself to wear them–risky, I know.) The PPE was hot and uncomfortable even for the relatively short period of time I wore them.
I encountered about 20 elderly (most very frail), a few obvious visitors and staff while in the facility. There was a hand sanitizer dispenser available at the main entrance and a plate of cookies for visitors. Even though I used my hand sanitizer before and after putting on/taking off my gloves and mask in the car, I used theirs upon entering and exiting the building. Although tempted, I didn’t take any cookies. Managing the PPE throughout this pandemic is going to be difficult and uncomfortable. The stares, not so much.
I was surprised and concerned that there was no apparent attempt to protect the residents, staff and volunteers from coronavirus or flu spread. This is on the same day as the number of Covid deaths increased to 9 from the Washington state assisted living facility. I can see how this virus is going to tear through communal facilities of elderly and medically compromised individuals. Staff, visitors and emergency personnel will also be at risk of becoming exposed and infected. I don’t see how this can be contained given what I saw yesterday. When someone is symptomatic, it is already too late.
With the rise in cases in Malaysia and India my hope that the warmth of summer will slow the virus is becoming less and less. Both countries have seen a substantial increase in cases the last 24-48 hours.
That’s the type of “expert” they have at the WHO
https://dnyuz.com/2020/03/04/virus-death-rate-still-uncertain-as-mild-cases-are-missed/