Audio Analysis Is Most Consistent Two Shooters At Trump Rally

[cohler]

Speed of sound is calculated as follows:

v = 331.3 m/s x sqrt(1 + T/273.15) x (1 + .0124 x H)
where T = temperature in ºC and H = relative humidity

According to Weather Underground at 5:51 pm:

T = 93ºF or 33.9ºC
H = 34% or 0.34

So v = 352.74 m / s = 1157 fps

The wind speed at that time was 7 mph or 10.3 fps WNW almost perpendicular to the shot direction of SSW. I estimate a -2 fps affect on the speed bringing v = 1155 fps

We don’t need to speculate on the snick-report time. It IS what it IS.

Average loss of speed due to air friction including the wind speed / direction is likely in the 1.7% to 2% over the entire range of 400 to 450 ft for a 55 grain round.

55 grain rounds
Muzzle velocity of 3000 fps x .98 = 2940 fps

d = .2205 / (1/1155 - 1/2940) = 419 ft

With a bullet speed of 3250 fps x .98 = 3185 fps

d = .2205 / (1/1155 - 1/3185) = 400 ft

With a bullet speed of 2800 fps x .98 = 2744 fps

d = .2205 / (1/1155 - 1/2744) = 440 ft

A 77-grain round has somewhat less drag, so the speed could be 2700 fps x .985 = 2660 fps:

d = .2205 / (1/1155 - 1/2660) = 450 ft

Crooks muzzle was 454 ft away.

CONCLUSIONS:

If the rounds were 55 grain bullets then:
THERE WAS A 2nd SHOOTER about 40 feet closer to Trump.

THAT IS EXACTLY THE DISTANCE TO THE FRONT EDGE OF THE BUILDING.

If the rounds were 77 grain bullets then:
Crooks could have been the shooter.

WE NEED TO KNOW WHAT THE BULLETS WERE.
THE FBI KNOWS AND PROBABLY HAS THEM.
WHY ARE THEY HIDING THEM?

IF THE ROUNDS ARE 55 grain, then THERE WAS A 2nd SHOOTER.

P.S. The 2nd and 3rd shots have times of 215ms and 209ms between snick and report. Those would imply correspondingly shorter distances than the ones calculated above by about 2.3% and 5% respectively. That makes it even a further stretch for Crooks to have been the shooter of those rounds.

[kincses-zsolt]

@offtheback

This means that they definitely did not originate between the podium mic and Crooks’ location (no solution).

My first question is: How the observers’ clocks were synchronized?
I guess that was based on audio, so when all they can hear exactly the same speach of Trump. If so, that is wrong. Since the propagation delay of sound.
The distance from loudspeakers should be taken into account.

[intolerance]

well I mean, people have tried their best. we aren’t government agencies, we don’t have the fancy tools and data they have. everyone is just making their best educated guess.

[vegaspatriot]

Nice analysis. I came to the same general conclusion using a 556 with 55 grain bullet, the most commonly sold I’m told. Since a .223 Remington can also be used with an AR-15, did you run calculations for that? I plan to but haven’t yet.

[intolerance]

I really hope the bullets don’t come back being cheap 223 ammo. It would explain the minimal damage to Trump’s ear and why he whiffed so badly, but like…really?? You are this 20 year old that figures out this massive blind spot in Secret Service and LEO security detail, and you bring cheap 223 ammo for an assassination??? And this guy went to a shooting club?? That would not make sense to me. 5.56 makes way more sense here, but it’s been a month and they still won’t say what the ammo is.

[vegaspatriot]

I don’t disagree with you, and you make a good case for it being a 5.56, but I wasn’t suggesting it was a .223, just that it could be. As you point out, we don’t know what was used so it makes sense that we consider each possibility at this point in time in our analysis.

[bumblebeeez]

What Thomas Matthew Crooks did in hours leading up to attack on former...

“Crooks went to a local gun shop that day, where he bought 50 rounds of 5.56 mm ammo.”

[vegaspatriot]

Thank you! I somehow missed that article.

[intolerance]

thanks

[whatwasitforyou]

Excellent work. Hope Chris gets to see this amongst all of the noise. It would be great if you could update your initial YouTube video as we might be able to bring to the attention of Chris by sharing it with other YouTube channels.

[greg_n]

Yes, I’ve been spending a lot of time working on this, and although I think I have a fairly good idea of how the sources were positioned and how they moved I am still seeing some results that don’t seem quite right. At this point, I think it will be wise for me to try using the audio from the police vehicle that pulled up next right in front of the building. It may be too close to the source to provide optimal results, but at least I will know its exact position. I’m going to do my best to produce a video with the new results sometime this evening.

[hazard]

Thank You for your Post.

[jmholford (J&L)]

@cohler

Average loss of speed due to air friction including the wind speed / direction is likely in the 1.7% to 2% over the entire range of 400 to 450 ft for a 55 grain round.

The paper I cited above gave a much higher figure, although sadly they did not specify the bullet mass.

Using an on-line ballistic calculator (with 3200 fps) also gives a much higher figure.

Using a 7% derating puts the available data back into plausible territory, especially given the high margins of error using this technique. If this technique were precise, we would not have a 24-foot spread of outcomes in just 3 samples taken from presumably the same population.

[commenter]

Excellent! It’s worth pointing out, and strengthening your argument, that in the equation speed*time = distance, the correct interpretation of “speed” is average speed and not initial speed. What happens if instead of 3000 and 3240 ft/s, you go to a ballistic table and estimate the average speed over 150 yards? Your b would then be a bit lower, and implied function d=d(b) a bit higher … closer to Google Earth. (Btw, I got 467 ft from my GE drawing.)

[intolerance]

@commenter

What happens if instead of 3000 and 3240 ft/s, you go to a ballistic table and estimate the average speed over 150 yards?

Then the AR-15 would’ve had to have a barrel length of at least 18 inches, since it can be difficult for a 16inch barrel to go above 2800/2900 consistently. It can happen, but the speed usually floats around like 2700-2900ish range from all the tests I’ve seen done on YouTube. also we still don’t know the ammo “brand” he used and how it was loaded. so many variables can affect the speed, especially the speed of each bullet. just because the first bullet is traveling at 2700 FPS, the 2nd one can go 2800, and the 3rd can go back down to 2700 range. especially when we’re talking a cheap 10 year old AR-15 that Crooks apparently had.

[gsliva]

Another thing to add, if this guy didn’t clean this weapon, barrel could have had lead deposits, another thing to add is the barrel warming up from rapid fire …etc. this guy shot a lot apparently 43 times X 100 rounds each (flat ass guess) that nearly 5,000 rounds over a year of firing. ish ish.

[vegaspatriot]

I’m not a gun expert by any means, but early on Mike Adams described the rifle on the roof as looking like it was an 18" barrel and not a 16". Has it been proven to be a 16"? Just asking.

[gsliva]

custody of FBI, nothing is concrete and proven yet. Might be able to figure it out from the roof top frames of body cams in relation to roof dimensions. Standing seam roof is probably 1 foot wide don’t know. Good point.

[jmholford (J&L)]

Greg,

I crunched this independently (using your timing), and get essentially the same result. I tried sequentially omitting each sensor, in case just one was daft, but the results were all over the map. Using all four sensors gives the image below.

The following table shows raw results:

Shot #, rms residual error (meters), (location E,N,Alt (m))
Shot 1, 0.060386 (586768.5456,4523528.2066,412)
Shot 2, 0.088354 (586766.1239,4523526.4009,400)
Shot 3, 0.091856 (586766.2963,4523527.3814,424)
Shot 4, 0.099961 (586766.4752,4523529.8466,438)
Shot 5, 0.2559 (586767.2035,4523530.7384,440)
Shot 6, 0.90358 (586767.6209,4523531.5317,440)
Shot 7, 0.44564 (586766.5612,4523532.193,440)
Shot 8, 0.78819 (586767.0485,4523530.9907,440)
Shot 9, 4.1842 (586765.2787,4523434.6715,440)
Shot 10, 7.2933 (586772.9445,4523417.3868,440)

The error search tends to jam the altitude into the max altitude constraint, as if there is some bias it is trying to overcome. Shots 9 and 10 have significant residual errors, especially shot 10.

Now supposedly, shot #10 came from the south barn, but this solution says otherwise. I cannot account for this apparent discrepancy from the narrative. Digging into the pairs, the largest shot 10 residual errors are between Ross and TMX, but removing that pair does not significantly move the result.

Looks like this is marathon, not a sprint.

Thank you again for your careful sifting through the audio.

[mikamolyneaux]

The exact locations of the shooters can be accurately determined through more detailed analysis of the 5 audio recordings from 5 microphones using simultaneous equations to include known properties of sound waves, known positions of the microphones, and geometry. Please contact me to explain how this should be done: mikamolyneaux at g mail dot com.