Audio Analysis Is Most Consistent Two Shooters At Trump Rally

I agree that Ross was too far away to hear the crack, so the Ross measurements for shots 1-8 are all boom times. It does look like the Cruiser was just behind the line of fire so it may not have been able to hear the initial crack from the barrel. But if it did, it would have come only 3 ms before the boom.

Correct. The booms are masked. So I had compute to compute them, as explained in the first three minutes of the Part 3 video.

Snick-boom differences for shots 1-8.pdf (215.5 KB)

See my response to Chris M. for an explanation of this. I’m guessing that the shooter raised up onto his knees between shots 3 & 4, causing a slight change in the dynamics.

If you would like to believe that there was someone in the attic just underneath the shooter making those first three shots, that is certainly your perogitive. To me, however, that seems like a ridiculous proposition.

I don’t know why the Cruiser waveforms all look so similar, but I have no reason to suspect any editing was done to those three audio tracks. The gunshot timing in the Cruiser audio agrees with the other four recording sources. If it did not agree, then I would be suspicious. Also, I will point out that the three microphones in the Cruiser were inside the vehicle whereas the other four recording sources were obviously out in the open air. So, all sounds are being “filtered” by the body and glass of the Cruiser before reaching the microphones. That’s why the shots all sound muffled. They are. But I did see the screenshot posted here that shows the Cruiser waveforms being remarkably identical, so I can certainly understand that angle of investigation.

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Hello Chris,

Thanks for your reaction.

Mike Bell discussed the final impact of the 1st bullet in the JCB lift’s hydraulics in this analysis: https://youtu.be/LI9uxEBlhUI?t=255

at this timestamp he starts discussing that the straight line of sight from Crooks on the roof to Trump’s ear continues to the hydraulics of the JCB lift


This is why I use the JCB lift’s hydraulic beam as the reference end point of the 1st bullet


Roger keeps pushing you to believing the vent hypothesis, but this simply does not make sense

Based on Roger’s last 3D CAD model, ref. 884-5, he places

  • Trump’s ear at 1337.335 ft floor level + 11.76833 ft ear height = 1337.335+11.76833 = 1349.10333 ft = 411.2067 meters above sea level
  • the bleachers’ railing at 1336.32+12.21 ft = 1348.53 ft = 411.03 m above sea level

The interaction point between the bullet and the bleachers’ railing is 20 yards from Trump’s position.

This would mean that the bullet would have dropped 0.57 ft = 6.8799 inches = 17.48 cm over 20 yards


A drop of 0.57 ft at 20 yards is impossible if that bullet grazed Trump’s ear


About the dust cloud: it is only an assumption that the first bullet turned into a dust cloud. There is no hard evidence for this dustification, as it can as easily have bounced off the railing.

The only thing we can reasonably assume is that it did not penetrate the railing, as the public would have noticed that and we would have seen pictures of that by now


Version 884-5 of the model:

All I have is the link from X. I have no idea how to do what you suggest with just the link. This is where I see the casing.

thumbnail_IMG_2921 (Small)

thanks for pointing this out.

first of all, I do not use the bleachers anywhere in my calculations. they are only included as visual support.

there is a specific point in the section “non-human victims” that specifies the coordinates of the interaction between bullet 1 and the railing


I use as reference the impact on the JCB hydraulic lift and not the impact/interaction point on that bleachers.
the past 2 weeks, that railing impact point has shifted from “the exact corner” to “between the belly and the right arm of the man wearing the blue t-shirt”, so that is a very volatile and highly unreliable point


meanwhile we have received drone footage from @rough_country_gypsy which shows the ground layout in full detail, and in my next kml, I will be using that version.

there may be discrepancies in coordinates depending on the maps used by google earth. I use the coordinates that match the google earth tiles timestamped 1985 (the default)

I will look into it while finetuning my kml file.

for the bleachers, I use the point at the left ground level as the reference (left when standing/sitting in the bleachers looking at Trump), and then I draw a 3d polygon at a certain bearing with a certain distance and depth.

the left side of the bleachers is the most important one, next the depth, then the height, and I do not care much about the right side of the left bleachers


thanks again for pointing this out. the next version of the kml will have the update.

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We don’t know if the AGR 6 window 3 was examined, but even if it “doesn’t open”, 100% a temporary pane could have been used. You could make something that works in waaay less than a day with a visit to a hardware store and replace it with a permanent pane the night after the shooting.

I can’t tell if the status after the shots is a curtain to hide them breaking down their rifle to go hide it
or bad photoshop.

Theoretically 2 parabolas belong to the same distance shot. However, these are not parabolas, since the air drag. Still there are two of them. Maybe the fence is not a problem.
two trajectories
fig

Hi Rough_Country_Gypsy,

Looking at the TMZ water stamp positon, this screen shot is made in the middle of the short video sequence. No shots have been fired yet, so no casings should be laying around
 try watching the video with sound and you will understand what I mean


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you forgot one at t-95:

I made a quick simulation and it seems that Chris was right, the top portion of that window seems to be too low, if I calculated correctly, namely:

floor level of the fence is 2 feet higher and I estimated the fence to be 6 feet, giving a total hight of 8 feet

The vents seem to be OK


I see it and hear it at the 5-second mark.

https://www.tmz.com/2024/07/13/trump-rally-gunman-seen-opening-fire-shooting-gets-killed-new-video-clip/

I would have to check what you used.

My math cleared it. I used 48" for the stage (8" standard for stage risers, not the 7.5 everyone keeps saying).

And I used the top foot of the window.

And everyone keeps using a 6 foot fence. Well, it wasn’t was it? It leans AND someone relaxed the chain link along those AGR 6 sections and there may have been notches too.

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Hi Bumblebeeez,

I used the below picture to evaluate 6 feet. Let me know how heigh you think the fence is and I will put it into my CAD system. But one thing you have to add is the 2 foot floor difference
 below you can see my dimensions

That fenceline you used is further west. It’s not where the bullets went. Look at my post again. I edited it.

What distance do you have between the fence and the window?

I would assume that the fence is the same height all the way down (6 feet), but if you have a different number, please let me know, I would be glad to use your numbers


Everyone keeps using a 6 foot fence. Well, it wasn’t was it? It leans AND someone relaxed the chain link along those AGR 6 sections and there may have been notches too.

The trajectory of a projectile is not a straight line. The bullet flies upward first. The questions are: how far is the turning point and what is the maximal elevation?
projectile trajectory

It depends on the distance the rifle is zeroed at.

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Ah, now I understand, you assume the shot is going through the fence with notches.

But one thing that also needs to be considered, the riffle can’t shoot from the top position of the window, so it makes the shooter even lower


I am sorry, as much as I wanted to believe your hypothesis, I personally agree with Chris and would consider putting “shots from the window” back to the red zone (level 3).

I would however be glad to come back if you find any other convincing evidence.

OK, I took the first step on reproducing this.

First I did ffmpeg -i 1382_202407131806_Unit5-0.mp4 -vn -map 0:a:0 -ss 00:04:55 -t 00:00:10 dashcam-0.wav to get the critical 10s of audio from the first audio track.

I detected the report onsets in my DAW and chopped it up. With all the junk between deleted, it looked like this:

If I make them translucent and overlay them, it looks like this:

So, it seems like there’s an amazing level of similarity, at least with the amplitude.

Next steps: I plan to look for another random dashcam video from YouTube with stationary gunshots so I can check if those shots look this similar. In other words, is this really as weird as it looks?

I haven’t done anything with spectrographs or examined the differences in timing between the audio tracks yet.

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Yes, but it is the simplified point of view.

I don’t want to disturb you with the elusive problems of theorethical physics. Textbooks say the air drag is proportional to some function of the speed. It is first power in some cases and second power in some other cases. But actually it is something between 1 and 2. Now, how to fit this with dimensional check? The left side and the right side of an equation must have the same dimension.

Anyway, we should be able to calculate the minumum and maximum elevation of the trajectory with different rounds he might use.