Audio Analysis Is Most Consistent Two Shooters At Trump Rally

[daniloraf]

All right, Roger, I’ll try to reason with you again.

@roger-knight

somebody referred to a X link of this video

I did. That’s my X account. That small clip was made by using my phone to record my desktop monitor screen while it played the 720p version of the TMZ website’s video, in an attempt to enlarge Crooks even further. It has no sound because I was tired of listening to it and muted the playback on the website’s player, and I did mention it previously to you that the case flying and the shot sound do not align because light travels faster than sound. The low hum you can hear on the X video is probably the AC in my room. Go to the TMZ website, you can do this yourself right now, for god’s sake.

@roger-knight

Then with photo shop you can make an animated gif with automatic alignment.

Absolutely no need to use a stabilized gif to see the fluidity of the shot. It’s even better to watch in full motion.

@roger-knight

But it is much easier to see what is going on with the stablized versoin.

It is not. Even on your gif I can see the case, but for a lesser time than when I watch it in full motion.

@roger-knight

There we can see that Crooks is still moving his riffle indicating that he is still aiming and not ready to shoot.

Well, obviously he was aiming… before, during and after he is recorded on this cellphone… One does not stop to aim after firing that 1st shot we can see…

@roger-knight

Is somebody claiming to see smoke

No one is talking about smoke, except just you, really…

@roger-knight

and empty casings in this video

HELL YES! THERE IS A CASE FLYING FROM THE EJECTION PORT!!

@roger-knight

Because if you listen to the first shot, it is the last frame just before the guy goes in front of the camera.

Stop this! SEE IT WITH YOUR EYES! The 1st shot sound and case flying are not aligned not even on the original video, and will never align! The video was recorded from A HUNDRED YARDS AWAY! Here, if you don’t believe my words from DAYS AGO about light and sound speed, I just asked GPT, here’s what it says…

Question about video recording capability, audio forensics. I record a man shooting a rifle from 100 yards away, using a cellphone. When I upload the file to a computer, should I expect to see the case ejection from the rifle and the sound of the shot at the same time?

ChatGPT:
When you record a man shooting a rifle from 100 yards away using a cellphone, the timing of what you see (the case ejection) and what you hear (the sound of the shot) in the video may not align perfectly due to the speed of sound and the speed of light.
Visual (Case Ejection):

• Light travels extremely fast (approximately 299,792 kilometers per second or 186,282 miles per second), so you would see the case ejection almost instantaneously after the shot is fired.*
  Audio (Sound of the Shot):
• Sound travels much slower than light, at approximately 343 meters per second (about 1,125 feet per second) in air at sea level. At 100 yards (about 91.44 meters), the sound would take roughly 0.27 seconds to reach you.*
  Expectation in the Recording:
• Case ejection: You would see the case ejection in the video almost immediately. Sound of the shot: You would hear the sound of the shot with a slight delay, around 0.27 seconds after seeing the case ejection.*
  When you upload and view the recording on a computer, this delay should still be present unless the video has been altered. This difference is typical and reflects the physical realities of sound and light travel.

@roger-knight

So, the only possibility to see anything would be in the screenshot below?

Absolutely wrong.

@roger-knight

By the way, I am suspicious about something now, of which I will get back to you later

I’m suspicious as to why you keep pointing people to that dropbox video with a bad resolution and using this whole frame by frame approach to call that case ejection an “artifact”… right… the arfifact that somehow magically appears between the rifle and the roof, flying in a consistent 5.56 pattern, exactly over the ejection port… come on, man…

[macanon]

I’m not sure this will help, but regarding bullet velocity vs time:

Friction of a bullet moving through air is a function of the cross-sectional area, the shape of the leading edge, and a weighted average of velocity and velocity squared. The complicated friction formula, if you knew the coefficients, would give you the x postion at a given time. This is a complicated function and is usually approximated using experimentally created tables. The y position at a given time is easy: once the bullet leaves the muzzle it is in free fall, accelerating downward at -g. As far as I know, there is no force causing a bullet fired perfectly horizontally to go up, such as lift from an airplane wing or a frizbee. The spinning bullet is symmetric.

I’m not a gun expert, but the distance at which the bullet starts moving down is a function of the angle of the barrel when fired and the characteristics of the bullet, the initial velocity (which depends on the barrel and gunpowder load), and friction. If the barrel is level, ie the target is enough lower than level, it starts moving down immediately. If the target is higher than the gun, the initial angle is up, slightly more than the target. If you zero at, say, 100 yards then I assume the target is the same height as the barrel, even though you’re aiming your sights at the target, the barrel is angled slightly up. When the bullet hits the 100 yard target, it has dropped just the right amount in free fall; it still may be moving up if the intial velocity is high enough. If you are aiming to hit a target at 150 yards, but you zeroed at 100 yards, your bullet might hit too high. At some later point after the height of the bullet has peaked and starting to come back down, there will be some longer distance at which you are zeroed perfectly; that will vary with the gun, bullet, load etc and might be another few hundred yards away.

The point is, in the real world this won’t be a simple freshman calculus problem since the actual friction funtion is nonlinear and in general, I don’t think we know the coefficients. There might even be higher order terms (e.g. velocity cubed) for all I know. It probably also varies with relative humidity and barometric pressure. I do recall from college math that at slow speeds, air friction tends to be more like proportional to velocity, and at high speeds more like proportional to velocity squared. Finding an appropriate table is probably the best bet (showing either decrease in velocity or height as the bullet travels farther). You might be able to hack some coefficients from a good table of experimental data.

[sgt-raven]

@macanon

When the bullet hits the 100 yard target, it has dropped just the right amount in free fall; it still may be moving up if the intial velocity is high enough.

If you zero a AR at 100 yds, it is at the top of its flight and starts dropping past that point. This is not true for the other normal zeros with an AR. A 25, 36, 50 yd zero, the bullet is still rising and has a 2nd zero distance when it is coming back down.

[howdoiknowthisinfo (howdoiknowthisinfo.com)]

@daniloraf

I’m suspicious as to why you keep pointing people to that dropbox video

what do you think about my 2 cents I dropped while elaborating on this topic in this post?

@howdoiknowthisinfo

whether it is a police investigation or an independent citizens investigation, the fast buriers of information apply the same tactics…

and what do you think about what I posted here?

@howdoiknowthisinfo

it depends on how you look at the events.

[kincses-zsolt]

@howdoiknowthisinfo

before that time, nobody (including myself) seems to have seen crooks on that roof

Please remember: The patroler got a radio message at about 18:01. We don’t know what the message was, but it seems to be a reason to speed up his car. And the alleged shooter was seen on the roof at 18:08 first. So it would be interesting to know what the radio message was.

We also know his kids were at the rally site, so he might have a personal interest to go there. (Later on he phoned his wife to bring home the kids.)

[daniel59]

@daniloraf

That small clip was made by using my phone to record my desktop monitor screen

I almost stopped reading at this point.

@daniloraf

You would hear the sound of the shot with a slight delay, around 0.27 seconds after seeing the case ejection.

You’re right about that.

Why do you continue to refuse to simply take a screenshot on which what you recognize as casing is circled.

Then we wouldn’t have to guess what you see.

[kincses-zsolt]

@offtheback

As you can see, these snick-boom times walk down from 28 ms on shot 1 to a steady 15 ms at the end.

It is about 3 meters change in distance.

[kincses-zsolt]

@daniloraf

That small clip was made by using my phone to record my desktop monitor screen while it played the 720p version of the TMZ website’s video

Free Screen Recorder - No Time Limit - For PC, Linux & Mac

You can record with or w/o sound.

[roger-knight]

Hi daniloraf,

We are getting closer and closer to an agreement.

@daniloraf

Case ejection: You would see the case ejection in the video almost immediately. Sound of the shot: You would hear the sound of the shot with a slight delay, around 0.27 seconds after seeing the case ejection.*

I of course agree with you that the sound of the shot is delayed and maybe Chris and I underestimated this fact of which I would like to apologize to you. This video is extremely difficult to analyse due to the fact that we have to listen to hysterical screaming (something I have enough at home), but now I convinced myself and spent a lot of time to analyse this important topic as follows:

I am using the original TMZ video, no photoshop and no manipulation.

I analysed this video in Microsoft Clipchamp, reducing the speed to 0.1 and adding the time stamp in milliseconds. The fact that the speed is reduced to 0.1 the time stamp has a rather strange output, but with a simple Excel formula we can convert back to seconds.

So, at reduced speed you hear the first “acoustic” shot just after the word “over” referring to the woman’s voice: “get over here” at 6.084 seconds. So according to your information we would have to go back 0.27 sec to see the “visual shot”. But according to my CAD drawing I am able to measure this distance very accurately, namely 250 feet. So I took the liberty to ask the robot the same question with 250 feet and it gave us a delay of 0.22 seconds which would be at 5.864. Theoretically we should be seeing some dynamic action between the screenshots at that point.

For safety I added some more screenshots in the beginning and at the end, just in case we have a small error in calculation.

Looking at the below screen shots, which one are you referring to, claiming to see a case ejecting?

If somebody is doubting the below screen shots, I strongly recommend that you analyse it with your own method.

And shouldn’t we see smoke and what about the rifle recoil? I don’t seem to see any dynamic action between the frames?!?

This analysis is turning out to be even more interesting, since we do actually see the first shot on video, but simply no dynamic action by Crooks? Is the first shot comming from the buffered room in building 6?

But maybe I am missing something, and somebody sees some dynamic action in one of the frames. The only dynamic action I see is the water mark of TMZ.

Any feedback would be highly appreciated.

Together we are strong…

[kwaka]

Been working on this one. I counted 14 frames from first visual of the shot to when the blast report is detected. At a frame fate of 29.97 frames per second, this calculates to about 0.467 seconds. With a speed of sound at 1150 fps = 537 feet distance between shooter and camera.

I don’t know how well this fits with the measurements of the site. Maybe there is some error in my calculation and welcome any review.

[kwaka]

@roger-knight

So according to your information we would have to go back 0.27 sec to see the “visual shot”

Looks like you have counted 7 frames between the visual and acoustic signals of the shot. This does equal 0.233 seconds at 29.97 frames per second and much closer to your calculation.

The main disagreement between our analysis is how many frames between the visual shot and audio report. I admit my method was a bit rough, it is a messy audio track.

[phasefive]

Question: Who did this animated GIF in your post?

@kwaka

The location of the “TMZ” watermark is different than the screencaptures of roger-knight. So one of the sources is not from the original.

Thanks.

[kwaka]

@phasefive

Question: Who did this animated GIF in your post?

I done it. It is an enhanced version by TMZ and appears at the end of the first video in the following link:

https://www.tmz.com/2024/07/13/trump-rally-gunman-seen-opening-fire-shooting-gets-killed-new-video-clip/

At the start of that video is the more original version with audio. Is is not quite as clear, but still shows some of what to look for. It is still importat as it also has the audio track to help line things up. Is this the TMZ logo you are looking for?

[kwaka]

I count 9 frames from the shell getting ejected to hitting the roof. It is easier to see in the enhanced TMZ version. There is still a little of it in the original version, much harder to make out what it is.

[daniloraf]

@daniel59

Why do you continue to refuse to simply take a screenshot on which what you recognize as casing is circled.

I did that about 2 weeks ago. I posted a single frame then Roger said it was an artifact. Come on…

@daniel59

I almost stopped reading at this point.

Just because it’s a quick and dirty solution to enlarge it for clarity? It seemed enough, given the case ejection is clearly visible. I didn’t want download and install Premiere just for this, it didn’t seem necessary. Apparently it was necessary, since you guys are freaking out over this. Lucky for us all, @kwaka just just did a great post down below… slowed it down, stabilized it, added info on visual and sound timing. Are those stil frames from Kwaka enough for you? Doesn’t the benefit of motion make it easier for you to see the case flying?

@roger-knight

we have to listen to hysterical screaming

Ross will forever live in our hearts and minds.

@roger-knight

same question with 250 feet

I’d say 270-275… they were under the tree, just behind the trunk, no? 250 would put the cellphone ahead of the trunk. But honestly, considering how short the period of time is between the ejection and the sound, I don’t believe we even need to refine that distance ever further (at least for the sake of acknowledging a case flew from his gun). This distance however could be useful to help us determine if Crooks moved his position after the shots, only to be shot close by. We do hear people saying “Watch out, Mags, he’s turnind this way”… And then there’s that video that shows Crooks turning with the rifle and taking aim again between shots 9 and 10, but we’ll talk about that later on.

@roger-knight

Looking at the below screen shots, which one are you referring to, claiming to see a case ejecting?

Those you see on the @kwaka post below.

@roger-knight

And shouldn’t we see smoke and what about the rifle recoil? I don’t seem to see any dynamic action between the frames?!?

I see the recoil when I watch it in full motion and on repeat. It’s small, but it’s there. You will never see it analyzig still frames, you have to watch in full motion in full screen on desktop. Focus on his glasses and hair over ears, let that repeat playback rip just after the cellphone zooms in until the action is totally blocked by the shoulder.

@roger-knight

since we do actually see the first shot on video, but simply no dynamic action by Crooks?

Ayn Rand once wrote that contradictions do not exist. When you find one, check your premises, and you’ll find that one of them is wrong. In this case, I blieve that your premise of ‘no dynamic action’ is incorrect. What where you expecting, Crooks being thrown 1 feet away due to recoil? It’s a 5.56 recoil from almost 100 yards away, not a Predator throwing people around or someone shooting a .50cal with one hand.

@roger-knight

Looking at the below screen shots, which one are you referring to, claiming to see a case ejecting?

5.755 and 5.777. But again, watch it in motion.

@kwaka

Been working on this one.

Well, there you go guys… if it’s GIF you want…

[phasefive]

@kwaka

appears at the end of the following link:

Trump Rally Shooter Seen Opening Fire & Getting Killed Seconds Later in New Video

I could not find it in the last four videos of this link.

[daniloraf]

@phasefive

I could not find it in the last four videos of this link.

Top of the page, just below the headline. By the end of the video, TMZ themselves slowed it down and then added their watermark. That’s why the TMZ logo appears at 2 different positions on the same TMZ video.

[kwaka]

@phasefive

I could not find it in the last four videos of this link.

It is at the end of the first video in that link.

[kwaka]

@daniloraf

I did that about 2 weeks ago. I posted a single frame then Roger said it was an artifact. Come on…

I said it was an artifact as well at that time with the lower quality images. finding the shoulder recoil a few frames earlier was tough to spot at the time. Well done in your persistence in trying to get word out about the better quality images hiding out there somewhere.

One thing that is still troubling me is 14 frames between the visual and audio report and 530 feet distance this means. I might be off 1, maybe even two frames. I am finding nothing going back 6-7 frames.

[bigtim]

@roger-knight

Looking at the below screen shots, which one are you referring to, claiming to see a case ejecting?

Watch the TMZ video (without sound to spare your sanity). Trump Rally Shooter Seen Opening Fire Getting Killed Seconds Lat-01.mp4 - Google Drive

Pause at 0:05 mark. Use the “<” and “>” key (to the right of the letter “M”) to advance and rewind the video per frame. Move it forward and back repeatedly and you can see an un-natural brass shiny object briefly appear which is either an error in the film (I do see other errors in the film, for instance a weird light color change a few frames before that near the end and above the rifle, so cannot rule it out) or otherwise most consistent in location, size, color, and timing with the rifle shot that can be heard on the audio version, about a 1/4 of a second later (representing the slower speed of sound). It’s not a leaf, bird, insect, change in scenery, etc. that I can account for.

I have taken a picture and circled the object in red whic I observe when doing this. The original video is bad, and my photo is even worse quality but this object can be observed and there’s few explanations for it, the most likely is either a flaw in the video or a shell casing.

@roger-knight

And shouldn’t we see smoke and what about the rifle recoil? I don’t seem to see any dynamic action between the frames?!?

No you won’t see rifle smoke, from modern smokeless powders, from a single or few shots. And the only place it might smoke from would be the barrel, after many shots, which is obscured. So “rifle smoke” is a red herring. Go to any Youtube channel where AR15s are shot and you’ll see there is no smoke or if any it’s only after a lot of shooting, it’s nearly imperceptible, and only at the muzzle or chamber if locked open, after large amounts of shooting, (which are obscured here).

Yes, you should see minor recoil occurring on the shooter. I did not initially see it but after many times viewing, Crooks left foot and his right shoulder do move in unison with the shell casing ejecting (most evident in the stabilized enhanced version), strongly showing 3 data points that suggest he fired that first shot.

Not conclusive, but strong evidence assuming the video is authentic.