Audio Analysis Is Most Consistent Two Shooters At Trump Rally

greg_n · August 25, 2024, 11:24pm

@offtheback, I’ve spent a couple hours looking into your results and comparing them to mine, and I find myself with more questions than answers. I cannot deny the boom times that you report. When I listen to the Stewert audio using my good Bose headphones, I can hear bass thumps at the times you specify in your table. (Original, unfiltered audio at 1/10th speed.)

However, I can’t find a mathematical basis that aligns with your numbers. For example, this graphic lays out the ballistic geometry for shot 1:

The direct distance from the shooter to DJStew is 132 ft, so the boom time is 115 ms.

We know the average velocity of shot 1 is 2693 fps based on the snick-boom time recorded by the podium mic, so I think it’s fair to estimate that the average velocity to point B is 2900 fps. Given that, it would take the bullet 43 ms to reach point B. Then it would take approximately 38 ms for the shockwave to reach DJStew. With these numbers, the snick-boom time should be 115-43-38 = 34 ms, which is significantly higher than the 28 ms that you got with your audio analysis. Granted, it’s not a huge difference, but why is there a difference? Perhaps I’ve got Stewert off-position by several feet, but I thought the video evidence had his position pretty well set.

Next, using the actual formula I’ve implemented in my model:
snick_boom_diff = sqrt(b^2+h^2)/Vc - b/Vb - h * sqrt(Vb^2-Vc^2)/(Vc*Vb)

I get 37 ms for the answer vs. the 34 ms rough estimate that I illustrated on the graphic. So, even further away from your observation of 28 ms.

If I position DJStew 6 m to the East and 2 m to the South of where I have his current position for shot 1, then I’m able to match the 28 ms result that you observed. But I’ll be very surprised if we discover that the position estimate I made from the video evidence was that far off. I guess we’ll just have to see what others come up with in their research.

@offtheback, would you please do this same audio analysis for shot 10 on the podium microphone? I believe that the boom waveform for this was overehwhemed by the snick, so I’d be interested to see if you can uncover it. (I’m estimating 13 ms for the snick-boom time on that one.)

mjx · August 25, 2024, 11:34pm

this is the interview with Michael Difrischia who shot the TMZ video. Anyone can figure out which cop he is talking about who tried to climb side of building at 01:30.

Could he have witnessed the officer climbing from east side while standing on the west side?? is it possible?

Or was there a diff officer climbing from west side as well?

macd · August 25, 2024, 11:59pm

Interesting. Maybe there was an officer on the west side who pulled himself up and then fell back down. Maybe this is the officer who reportedly broke his ankle! The officer on the other (east) side who got boosted up certainly did not break his ankle and did not seem to be injured much.

greg_n · August 26, 2024, 12:00am

Excellent, Sonja. It is good to have someone with your extensive math background here on the forum. As a simple Computer Engineer, I sometimes have difficulty remembering the difference between what a “term” is and what a “factor” is, so your feedback is much appreciated.

I hope that you have been working on a model for the whole rally environment and will be able to present your own analysis for the origins of all all 10 shots. I found it to be extremely difficult and time-consuming to achieve cohesive results that made sense. I actually gave up on the project three times but kept coming back to it because I just couldn’t give up. So, please take some time to get everything all figured out and then come back with some excellent details for us to review.

mjx · August 26, 2024, 12:15am

Yup. Or this guy Michael Difrischia was a CIA plant to record video and cater to the narrative.

anyone who analysed the site in detail can shed more insights into this.

macanon · August 26, 2024, 12:21am

That sounds like a rule of thumb. The peak of the parabola can’t possibly be exactly 100 yards for every AR15 and for every size round, amount of black powder, and muzzle velocity. But maybe a good enough rule of thumb for our purposes here.

greg_n · August 26, 2024, 12:36am

I hadn’t seen that interview, @mjx. Very interesting. Thanks for posting.

And thanks, @pk2019, for the link to Officer Pearson’s dropbox. I downloaded all 12 bodycam videos.

Here’s the frame from the bodycam (chest level) where the officer got up to his highest postion before retreating:

I think his head is up just high enough to see the shooter on the roof, to his left. He is up on a “crossover” between the two AGR buildings. In the background, you can see another crossover, and then I think we see the tree that Michael Difrischia, the man credited with the TMZ recording, was near. Could Michael have seen this officer? Maybe, but probably only just the officer’s head.

Was there a different officer that climbed up on the other crossover, like @mjx wondered, and actually did hurt his ankle when jumping down? I don’t think we’ve heard anyone suggesting this, so pretty doubtful in my estimation.

ps. Here’s a Spa Guy drone shot that I think is about at the same eye level that Michael D. would have been at. So, yeah, I guess the crowd there would have been able to see the officer push himself up onto that eastern crossover, briefly.

ref: Ostroff video

sgt-raven · August 26, 2024, 12:37am

If you used ‘Black’ powder in a AR type firearm, it would foul rapidly and stop functioning. Most if not all ‘Modern’ firearms in the last 100+ years use ‘Smokeless’ powder.

My ‘rule of thumb’ is good enough for Government Work.

sonjax6 · August 26, 2024, 12:40am

My skills in programming are limited. I can do some VBA stuff in excel - I wrote a macro that could do 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations for a pretty large block of term life insurance and slice and dice the results by all sorts of categories like length of level premium, sex, rate class, etc. I put in a three factor pseudo random number generator that was faster and much more stable than the built in generator in excel. I did not do this quickly, though.

I think the TDOA method requires one to actually know the time of the recordings down to the millisecond. I don’t think it’s possible to get those.

But I will see about acquiring audacity or similar and doing some analysis of my own. You have some raw data in the first version of your analysis that also could be useful.

There hopefully should be some information coming out tomorrow from the official and unofficial house committees on the attempted assassination.

Thanks for keeping calm in your response.

mjx · August 26, 2024, 1:09am

ahh that looks like he could hv seen the head of the officer or perhaps some parts of uniform as well. Thnx for the pics.

from the beard, i am guessing its Michael Difrischia on cowboy hat with bluish tshirt on frame right. Still from Grimley video

edit: line of sight is questionable though

one more interview link same guy

daniloraf · August 26, 2024, 1:43am

I have the same. Body on the 20th rib. I’ve been considering lately that he may have fired the 8 shots from rib 15-16, then moved after shot 9 and died from shot 10 on rib 20.

Have you see the dark smudges between ribs 5-6 and between 15-16 ? Any rib between those 2 smudges seems concealed from hercules CS teams by the tree. Those smudges were already there on the bodycam videos released by Grassley.
They even appear on Google Earth images from years ago. But it’s just such a big coincidence that there are black smudges sort of marking positions that are concealed from snipers.

There’s also another smudge to the right of your image, closer to SniperGreg’s window.

BTW, I agree, the more I look at this thing, the more I believe SniperGreg has more to tell. Might even be something that happened at that range they all probably went to. Leaked intel? They all knew each other? When you go 40 times a year to a range, you end up knowing people.

mjx · August 26, 2024, 1:43am

Managed to tuck his tshirt in somewheere in btween it seems

Edit:
Video1: DJ laughery
Video2: Michael Difrischia video with TMZ censor
Video3: Piper Grimley

mjx · August 26, 2024, 1:46am

scratches. perhaps from the gun movements. This is same rib as body

greg_n · August 26, 2024, 2:02am

Man, everyone needs to see that News 4 Pittsburgh video. What a ridiculous response. I don’t want to think that the local officers there actually “failed” on purpose, but when it looks this bad what are we supposed to think? Same goes for the Secret Service.

Agreed, a couple weeks ago I spent a lot of time comparing Michael D’s video with the Grimley video and decided that he must have been positioned up against the tree there like you showed.

True, but in the Ingraham interview he said that initially he had been in a good position to watch Trump, but “when we seen he had a gun, I went over and hid by the tree”. So, he was probably more to the south where he could see the cop, and then moved to the tree and started recording.

greg_n · August 26, 2024, 2:10am

Where did you get that last image you showed, with the shooter dead on the roof. I’ve only seen blurred videos. If there is an unblurred version of the TMZ video, I want it.

mjx · August 26, 2024, 2:21am

from Piper Grimley

towards the end

sgt-raven · August 26, 2024, 2:33am

If one of the cops had come back to where they were, the cop could have shot Crooks from there with their pistol.

offtheback · August 26, 2024, 2:34am

@greg_n, thanks for taking a look at my data. There are other “pulses” in the filtered DSTew audio, but I consider them reflections as they are too long after the snick to resolve to any reasonable shooter position. I will also think about what these snick-boom times could mean.

As for the podium audio and shot 10, this is a tough one. I think the gun is suppressed, there is a lot of crowd noise, and the AGC crushes the gain for ¼ second after the bullet snick hits it at about 18.384 seconds:

I am mostly looking for a potential boom during this squelched interval.

There is something happening in the highlighted portion below at the end of the snick impulse, around 30 ms after the snick arrives. It appears at too high of a frequency to be a boom, and I believe it to be a close-in reflection of the snick:

After I hit the audio with a sharp lowpass filter at 750 Hz, this is the only thing that sticks out, from about 18.468 to 18.486 seconds, with an almost pure tone at 604 Hz:

I think it is too short to be a vocal tone. At 84 ms after the snick it might be the muffled gun report. I don’t know how well that agrees with the physical timing models for expected arrival.
I don’t see anything else that is set apart from crowd noise, even after filtering (which isn’t especially effective here).

Since everyone is giving their background, I have a master’s degree in Electrical Engineering with an specialty in digital signal processing. After schooling, I worked on projects that required tracking faint, mobile signals in the presence of noise and spoofing to guide fast-moving objects towards their destination. We programmed our own feature extractors and filters, sometimes in machine code in order to provide timely updates to guidance.

I eventually went back to school and now do something completely different for a living. But I think I still have an eye for interpreting signals.
I plan to take a look at this miraculous tumbling casing in the before-enhanced video to see what I can see, just in case enhancing means adding it in post. It is amazing how people immediately believe this and are now making stories (with no hard proof) about how he laid down and then sat up and that’s why the shot signatures don’t match each other. But they DO match in the police audio, so what then? If the police audio can be faked, why not a tiny casing? Around and round we go.

daniloraf · August 26, 2024, 2:41am

Well, in Daniel’s world propellant gases, gas tubes and physics are not important, because the wizard in the aluminum hat made it happen, the same wizard that rigged rails and rigged a trigger to a remote controlled rifle. However, do notice that after he was entertained and had a magical blank to grab onto he now even admits to seeing a case being ejected. How curious…

I guess we have a shell flying around after all…

rough_country_gypsy · August 26, 2024, 3:08am

I’ve droned all of the rooftops on AGR and building 6 does have some funky black marks on the ridge cap that none of the other rooftops have, but I think it’s probably attributed to something less nefarious. They’re clear on my drone footage but I don’t know how to pull a screenshot from it so I take a picture with my cell phone which kills the resolution. The other rooftops have the black marks down by the gutters.
dark marks (Small)

I’m pretty convinced this is solved and “Sniper Greg” (as you call him) needs to be hauled in and waterboarded before he mysteriously dies in some unorthodox fashion.