Audio Analysis Is Most Consistent Two Shooters At Trump Rally

[daniel59]

@daniloraf

Ok, I’ll be fair to your kayfabe theory,

I appreciate that

I’ll try to be fair to your theory that everyone, including Crooks and Trump, was just very stupid too.

@daniloraf

We have video of Crooks on the roof firing the first shot and a case is being ejected.

Unfortunately, I have to admit that it actually looks like this.

Nevertheless, it remains very suspicious that the first bodycam video and the other spectator videos have still not been published.

@daniloraf

Crooks would have to know about it, and was a willing participant.

For me, Crook’s motivation and the extent of his control over himself is still unclear.

@daniloraf

Crooks fired at least the first shot using a blank round (not as loud, but does cycle the weapon and a case is ejected. There is no projectile that leaves the muzzle at supersonic velocity). It is not lethal at all lethal at that distance, and Trump was not in danger.

@daniloraf

OR we could have an elusive professional 2nd shooter or machine firing real bullets at the overall direction, safeguarding Trump and giving us the sound we need, but it would have to be exactly at the same time that Crooks fires his rifle, so we need AI, the israelis and an aluminum hat.

Perhaps you have just brought the kayfabe theory back to life. For 5 minutes it looked dead.

Crook’s rifle would only have had to be rigged so that when the trigger was pulled, a signal was sent via radio to the machine that fired the rifle through a small hole.

Maybe that’s why Crooks had the remote detonator with him, although according to FBI Wray the explosives in Crooks’ car were set to off.

You made my day.

Sleep well!

[rough_country_gypsy]

@howdoiknowthisinfo

his body and blood trail were photographed in the 20th rib, starting from the AGR parking side. there are 72 ribs in total…

Correct. And that’s where I put him.

[greg_n]

@offtheback

…
Anyway, I think the booms are visible here–this is what I have measured in my spreadsheet for all ten shots, based on the first channel:

@offtheback, I’ve spent a couple hours looking into your results and comparing them to mine, and I find myself with more questions than answers. I cannot deny the boom times that you report. When I listen to the Stewert audio using my good Bose headphones, I can hear bass thumps at the times you specify in your table. (Original, unfiltered audio at 1/10th speed.)

However, I can’t find a mathematical basis that aligns with your numbers. For example, this graphic lays out the ballistic geometry for shot 1:

The direct distance from the shooter to DJStew is 132 ft, so the boom time is 115 ms.

We know the average velocity of shot 1 is 2693 fps based on the snick-boom time recorded by the podium mic, so I think it’s fair to estimate that the average velocity to point B is 2900 fps. Given that, it would take the bullet 43 ms to reach point B. Then it would take approximately 38 ms for the shockwave to reach DJStew. With these numbers, the snick-boom time should be 115-43-38 = 34 ms, which is significantly higher than the 28 ms that you got with your audio analysis. Granted, it’s not a huge difference, but why is there a difference? Perhaps I’ve got Stewert off-position by several feet, but I thought the video evidence had his position pretty well set.

Next, using the actual formula I’ve implemented in my model:
snick_boom_diff = sqrt(b^2+h^2)/Vc - b/Vb - h * sqrt(Vb^2-Vc^2)/(Vc*Vb)

I get 37 ms for the answer vs. the 34 ms rough estimate that I illustrated on the graphic. So, even further away from your observation of 28 ms.

If I position DJStew 6 m to the East and 2 m to the South of where I have his current position for shot 1, then I’m able to match the 28 ms result that you observed. But I’ll be very surprised if we discover that the position estimate I made from the video evidence was that far off. I guess we’ll just have to see what others come up with in their research.

@offtheback, would you please do this same audio analysis for shot 10 on the podium microphone? I believe that the boom waveform for this was overehwhemed by the snick, so I’d be interested to see if you can uncover it. (I’m estimating 13 ms for the snick-boom time on that one.)

[mjx]

Man who shot video of would-be Trump assassin on building speaks out | Fox...

this is the interview with Michael Difrischia who shot the TMZ video. Anyone can figure out which cop he is talking about who tried to climb side of building at 01:30.

Could he have witnessed the officer climbing from east side while standing on the west side?? is it possible?

Or was there a diff officer climbing from west side as well?

[macd]

Interesting. Maybe there was an officer on the west side who pulled himself up and then fell back down. Maybe this is the officer who reportedly broke his ankle! The officer on the other (east) side who got boosted up certainly did not break his ankle and did not seem to be injured much.

[greg_n]

@sonjax6

…
Sonja B, BS Math, 1987, MA Math 1992, University of Kansas
Associate, Society of Actuaries.
Proof of above credentials provided upon request.

Excellent, Sonja. It is good to have someone with your extensive math background here on the forum. As a simple Computer Engineer, I sometimes have difficulty remembering the difference between what a “term” is and what a “factor” is, so your feedback is much appreciated.

I hope that you have been working on a model for the whole rally environment and will be able to present your own analysis for the origins of all all 10 shots. I found it to be extremely difficult and time-consuming to achieve cohesive results that made sense. I actually gave up on the project three times but kept coming back to it because I just couldn’t give up. So, please take some time to get everything all figured out and then come back with some excellent details for us to review.

[mjx]

Yup. Or this guy Michael Difrischia was a CIA plant to record video and cater to the narrative.

anyone who analysed the site in detail can shed more insights into this.

[macanon]

@sgt-raven

@macanon

When the bullet hits the 100 yard target, it has dropped just the right amount in free fall; it still may be moving up if the intial velocity is high enough.

If you zero a AR at 100 yds, it is at the top of its flight and starts dropping past that point. This is not true for the other normal zeros with an AR. A 25, 36, 50 yd zero, the bullet is still rising and has a 2nd zero distance when it is coming back down.

That sounds like a rule of thumb. The peak of the parabola can’t possibly be exactly 100 yards for every AR15 and for every size round, amount of black powder, and muzzle velocity. But maybe a good enough rule of thumb for our purposes here.

[greg_n]

I hadn’t seen that interview, @mjx. Very interesting. Thanks for posting.

@pk2019

I think it’s this one, within the dropbox of Matthew Pearson, who is a Butler city police officer.

And thanks, @pk2019, for the link to Officer Pearson’s dropbox. I downloaded all 12 bodycam videos.

@mjx

Could he have witnessed the officer climbing from east side while standing on the west side?? is it possible?

Or was there a diff officer climbing from west side as well?

Here’s the frame from the bodycam (chest level) where the officer got up to his highest postion before retreating:

I think his head is up just high enough to see the shooter on the roof, to his left. He is up on a “crossover” between the two AGR buildings. In the background, you can see another crossover, and then I think we see the tree that Michael Difrischia, the man credited with the TMZ recording, was near. Could Michael have seen this officer? Maybe, but probably only just the officer’s head.

Was there a different officer that climbed up on the other crossover, like @mjx wondered, and actually did hurt his ankle when jumping down? I don’t think we’ve heard anyone suggesting this, so pretty doubtful in my estimation.

ps. Here’s a Spa Guy drone shot that I think is about at the same eye level that Michael D. would have been at. So, yeah, I guess the crowd there would have been able to see the officer push himself up onto that eastern crossover, briefly.

ref: Ostroff video

[sgt-raven]

@macanon

amount of black powder,

If you used ‘Black’ powder in a AR type firearm, it would foul rapidly and stop functioning. Most if not all ‘Modern’ firearms in the last 100+ years use ‘Smokeless’ powder.

My ‘rule of thumb’ is good enough for Government Work.

[sonjax6]

@greg_n

I hope that you have been working on a model for the whole rally environment and will be able to present your own analysis for the origins of all all 10 shots.

My skills in programming are limited. I can do some VBA stuff in excel - I wrote a macro that could do 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations for a pretty large block of term life insurance and slice and dice the results by all sorts of categories like length of level premium, sex, rate class, etc. I put in a three factor pseudo random number generator that was faster and much more stable than the built in generator in excel. I did not do this quickly, though.

I think the TDOA method requires one to actually know the time of the recordings down to the millisecond. I don’t think it’s possible to get those.

But I will see about acquiring audacity or similar and doing some analysis of my own. You have some raw data in the first version of your analysis that also could be useful.

There hopefully should be some information coming out tomorrow from the official and unofficial house committees on the attempted assassination.

Thanks for keeping calm in your response.

[mjx]

@greg_n

k is about at the same eye level that Michael D. would have been at. So, yeah, I guess the crowd there would

ahh that looks like he could hv seen the head of the officer or perhaps some parts of uniform as well. Thnx for the pics.

from the beard, i am guessing its Michael Difrischia on cowboy hat with bluish tshirt on frame right. Still from Grimley video

edit: line of sight is questionable though

one more interview link same guy

Only on 4: Couple who were at Trump rally in Butler describe seeing gunman Thomas Crooks on build...

[daniloraf]

I have the same. Body on the 20th rib. I’ve been considering lately that he may have fired the 8 shots from rib 15-16, then moved after shot 9 and died from shot 10 on rib 20.

Have you see the dark smudges between ribs 5-6 and between 15-16 ? Any rib between those 2 smudges seems concealed from hercules CS teams by the tree. Those smudges were already there on the bodycam videos released by Grassley.
They even appear on Google Earth images from years ago. But it’s just such a big coincidence that there are black smudges sort of marking positions that are concealed from snipers.

There’s also another smudge to the right of your image, closer to SniperGreg’s window.

BTW, I agree, the more I look at this thing, the more I believe SniperGreg has more to tell. Might even be something that happened at that range they all probably went to. Leaked intel? They all knew each other? When you go 40 times a year to a range, you end up knowing people.

[mjx]

Managed to tuck his tshirt in somewheere in btween it seems

Edit:
Video1: DJ laughery
Video2: Michael Difrischia video with TMZ censor
Video3: Piper Grimley

[mjx]

scratches. perhaps from the gun movements. This is same rib as body

[greg_n]

Man, everyone needs to see that News 4 Pittsburgh video. What a ridiculous response. I don’t want to think that the local officers there actually “failed” on purpose, but when it looks this bad what are we supposed to think? Same goes for the Secret Service.

@mjx

from the beard, i am guessing its Michael Difrischia on cowboy hat with bluish tshirt …

Agreed, a couple weeks ago I spent a lot of time comparing Michael D’s video with the Grimley video and decided that he must have been positioned up against the tree there like you showed.

edit: line of sight is questionable though

True, but in the Ingraham interview he said that initially he had been in a good position to watch Trump, but “when we seen he had a gun, I went over and hid by the tree”. So, he was probably more to the south where he could see the cop, and then moved to the tree and started recording.

[greg_n]

Where did you get that last image you showed, with the shooter dead on the roof. I’ve only seen blurred videos. If there is an unblurred version of the TMZ video, I want it.

[mjx]

- YouTube

from Piper Grimley

towards the end

[sgt-raven]

@greg_n

What a ridiculous response. I don’t want to think that the local officers there actually “failed” on purpose, but when it looks this bad what are we supposed to think?

If one of the cops had come back to where they were, the cop could have shot Crooks from there with their pistol.

[offtheback]

@greg_n, thanks for taking a look at my data. There are other “pulses” in the filtered DSTew audio, but I consider them reflections as they are too long after the snick to resolve to any reasonable shooter position. I will also think about what these snick-boom times could mean.

As for the podium audio and shot 10, this is a tough one. I think the gun is suppressed, there is a lot of crowd noise, and the AGC crushes the gain for ¼ second after the bullet snick hits it at about 18.384 seconds:

I am mostly looking for a potential boom during this squelched interval.

There is something happening in the highlighted portion below at the end of the snick impulse, around 30 ms after the snick arrives. It appears at too high of a frequency to be a boom, and I believe it to be a close-in reflection of the snick:

After I hit the audio with a sharp lowpass filter at 750 Hz, this is the only thing that sticks out, from about 18.468 to 18.486 seconds, with an almost pure tone at 604 Hz:

I think it is too short to be a vocal tone. At 84 ms after the snick it might be the muffled gun report. I don’t know how well that agrees with the physical timing models for expected arrival.
I don’t see anything else that is set apart from crowd noise, even after filtering (which isn’t especially effective here).

Since everyone is giving their background, I have a master’s degree in Electrical Engineering with an specialty in digital signal processing. After schooling, I worked on projects that required tracking faint, mobile signals in the presence of noise and spoofing to guide fast-moving objects towards their destination. We programmed our own feature extractors and filters, sometimes in machine code in order to provide timely updates to guidance.

I eventually went back to school and now do something completely different for a living. But I think I still have an eye for interpreting signals.
I plan to take a look at this miraculous tumbling casing in the before-enhanced video to see what I can see, just in case enhancing means adding it in post. It is amazing how people immediately believe this and are now making stories (with no hard proof) about how he laid down and then sat up and that’s why the shot signatures don’t match each other. But they DO match in the police audio, so what then? If the police audio can be faked, why not a tiny casing? Around and round we go.