In Gary Melton’s interview of Jon Malis they concluded that 3 casings were to the left of the shooter (east) because he had the gun turned sideways (max low profile) so that the ejection direction was up and slightly leftward, while the other 5 casings were to his right (west) because he had then turned the gun upright.
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thanks, I need to watch this.
I once heard a YouTuber who gave a convincing argument. I’m not too much into shooting, and correct me if I’m wrong, but it is rarely the case that a casing falls in front of the gun let alone 3, especially when Crooks is positioned in the way everybody saw him on the roof. In addition, everybody seems to forget that he was also shooting with an angle. The angle would even more favorize the casings to go to the roof side where Crooks is and not to the opposite side of the roof. Therefore the 3 casings are very suspicious.
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Thank you for looking it up.
There’s been a lot of discussion on “recoil”. I said this before, 223/556, especially in a prone position with a 16" barrel has virtually no recoil.
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The first report on the roof was 5 not 8 then they changed it later.
Also here is Dan Bongino video today with FBI pics and what he thinks.
Go to about 34:40–38:30
Here’s a question.
How likely is it that a shooter, in this case Crooks, would change their shooting style when shooting 8 shots?
You need to keep in mind that when Mr. Trump was shot he was leaning forward, so his ear was a few inches lower and further left than what appears in the picture.
Greg_n’s analysis is fatally flawed. Time distance of arrival analysis requires that one actually know the time of arrival, so we would need to know the actual time stamps of the videos down to the millisecond. Coordinating the videos to the “snap” sound of one of the shots adds in a huge error.
With the difference in audio signatures of the shots, differences in snap-bang time and Roger Knight’s work in backtracing the first bullet, I’m fairly sure the first three shots came from the AGR building 6 vent.
I suspect the shooter was probably standing on a table in the room. It’s a pretty simple matter to take out a ceiling tile or two and then put them back when one is done.
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This is interesting.
I still think it is 3rd window, but your creative thinking is awesome and it should be considered as an answer.
I like third window because it is the least disruptive. No ceiling tiles have to be removed. A sniper wouldn’t be in a weird or hot position.
Hopefully everyone noticed those ‘flaps’ with downward angles pointing to the outside, either from the videos or this photo… and that the rifle inside would need an upward pointing line of sight so that the bullet trajectory matches the elevations from @roger-knight 's drawing. That seems an adverse angle situation, especially when one plans to fire 3 rounds through that in 1.5sec. But hey… if even video evidence of a flying casing and felt recoil isn’t evidence enough, let’s keep checking the elevations on trump and rail and see where they lead us.
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Exactly. Plus, that video is zoomed and compressed. Even the small amount of recoil probably wouldn’t register. MP4 compression predicts frames and interpolates them. If there isn’t significant movement, the compression will disregard the movement.
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Hi PhilH,
The topic is not if we can see recoil or not, because that conversation has been going on ever since the video came out. Now we are investigation if the video of Crooks on the roof has been eligibly edited between last Friday and last Tuesday. And there already seems to be proof that somebody added more dynamics to Crooks body, adding more recoil. If this is the case, we can stop analysing this video and it will be put into the red zone…
Have heard that theory before. It is false from the TMZ video where the shooter is holding the gun upright and the ejected shell goes to the right with the first shot.
Maybe the shooter raised his position and moved forward as Trump ducked down to try and get him back in his sights? Perhaps why a delay between shots 3 - 4 and why a different sound profile?
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yes, and again, there is that strange guy that looks out of window 2, 10 seconds before shot 10, showing that there was a person in that room during the first 8 shots… also the flashing lights in window 3 would make sense too…
if Sonja’s hypothesis is correct, maybe that is the face of our 2nd shooter?
Hey, I have a thought exercise for everyone working on shooter placement. From my time-of-arrival timing estimates, I think everything actually lines up audio-wise (except for the popo cruiser, ahem) if shots 1-3 came from the roof of the building behind Crooks as viewed from the podium. This also may account for the snick-boom differences at the podium between shot 1 and shot 4. And it makes all the vent-haters happy.
So shoot 1 to 3 holes in this theory. Shooter/overwatch sniper 2 (you know who you are, but we don’t) crawls out a side window of the two-story building behind Crooks onto the roof of the one-story building just behind Crooks, sneaks along below the ridge until he is positioned so he can shoot just over Crooks’ head, raises up for two seconds but occluded by Crooks from the podium direction, pops off three shots, then scurries back in the window while fire is directed at Crooks. He is occluded by the two-story building and Crooks’ building from maybe all of the onlookers. And we get shot sounds and echoes that don’t match for the two volleys.
If he gets caught beforehand, he can just say he saw this guy on the roof and was trying to get the drop on him. I mean he was basically aiming right at him, Trump’s ear was just in play if he “missed.” If he gets seen after, he can say the same thing, he had just come out to catch the suspect but he had to lay low when the bullets started flying and went back inside so the SS wouldn’t mistake him for a baddie.
Just sayin’. No one has to camp out anywhere or roast in an attic. Occam’s Razor and all. Greg N comes out and chats everyone up as to what they saw, no one mentions seeing a second guy, and they whistle about their merry way.
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But then you would have 3 casings on Crooks side of the roof and 5 casings on the opposite. And with all the video evidence around, Crooks never considerably changes position, except when he gets up and is taken out by the sniper with shot 10.
This is a fair evaluation for a normal shooting position. That said, if I had to guess, I’d say those 3 shells on the southern half the roof were from the last 3 shots. Since we believe that shots 5 or 6 hit Comperatore, and that rifles tend to rise up and to the left when fired, and that Crooks seemed to be on a spray-and-pray volley, the ejection port could have been a little more exposed to the southern half of the roof by the time of shots 6-7-8. He could have fired the 5-shot volley in a hurry, turning his body slightly, trying to protect himself from the ESU Sniper (which he probably saw, btw, since his Holosun AEMS has no magnification and the ESU officer appeared to be on a relatively open area by that fence)… shells hit that middle section that divides north and south parts of the roof, roll to the south part… Could be that the bolt pushed any 3 shells forward… When I fire at the range, most of the shells end up to the left and a little behind me. Some days all consistent, some days a couple are closer to me…
Take a look at these 2 rounds I just found online… it’s very unpredictable…
It was only once I stabilized the frames and zoomed in was I able to detect some slight shoulder movement.
Original TMZ version:
Enhanced TMZ version:
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which TMZ version are you evaluating? The one from last Friday or the one from last Tuesday? Because eligibly the video has been edited over the weekend adding more dynamics to Crooks body…
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The problem with the vent theory is that it requires a series of events and acts that seem crazy. You have to believe that someone would pre plan a secret shooting position, that the venue of the rally was changed to facilitate the shooting, that Crooks worked with the plotters and was “guided” to his position, that the Secret Service let it happen, that the FBI is trying to cover it up, and videos in the custody of the police and TMZ are doctored. Unbelievable. But unbelievable is a great cover. It is so unbelievable that the public will not believe it or take a very long time to accept it.
Just like the JFK shooting is unbelievable. Someone had to pre-setup in the grassy knoll, the path of the car had to be changed to facilitate the shooting, that Oswald worked with the plotter and was guided to have access to the depository building, that the secret service let it happen, that the FBI covered it up, and the Zapruder film had to be suppressed by the government and Time magazine for a decade. Wait…
Secret shooting position. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . JFK √ Butler √
Venue was changed. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . JFK √ Butler √
Patsy worked with the plotters. . . . . . . . . . . . .JFK √ Butler √
Patsy positioned by the plotters. . . . . . . . . . . .JFK √ Butler √
Two shooters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . JFK √ Butler √
Secret Service let it happen. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .JFK √ Butler √
FBI covered it up. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .JFK √ Butler √
Film/videos hidden or altered. . . . . . . . . . . . . JFK √ Butler √
Unbelievable. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . JFK √ Butler √
But both are just unbelievable conspiracy theories.
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