I was hoping that you in particular would look at this post. I initially was with you on the far back building. But neither the snick-boom or time of arrival can be made to work–it is too far.
What I am suggesting here is the ONE-story building directly behind the Crooks building. Ingress/egress is from the window of the adjacent two-story building. If you are caught, claim you were doing LEO things and trying to apprehend Crooks. But no one can see you except maybe from the adjacent parking lot if far enough back.
This works timing-wise for the audio. Any place in front of Crooks doesn’t work, and too far back doesn’t work either.
I agree with your assertions and think the vent location is possible, and there are good arguments to be made for the vent location including same trajectory (assuming Crooks goes to his correct instructed location, which is no guarantee), and assuming the lookout can keep the AGR#6 building clear of others.
But I find the vent location problematic for a few important reasons:
No situational awareness of anything else
Shooting thru open vents would be extremely difficult for a shooter recessed deep into the attic to avoid visual or sound detection
We have pretty good video(s) and eye witnesses and no evidence of vents ever opening; and they’d have to be fully obviously opened.
A fixed position like this would rely on either a lot of coordination or luck so that a object or people are not in the pathway - bleachers, crane, other obstacles, etc.
I think it must be seriously considered but it is not an optimal location. I think the 2 story rooftop is the best location for a professional sniper.
Here the casing appears to fly to the shooters right at perhaps a 30-45 degree upward angle, which is consistent with an AR15 rifle ejection pattern. It would not travel directly upward nor to the shooters left. If the belief that the casing is flying directly upward, that is purely and optical illusion. The rifle is plainly held in the normal firing position with the magazine downward, as can be seen from the position of the buttstock and his cheekweld, etc.
This theory would depend on whether those windows can be opened, but even so I think someone else running around on the lower rooftops near Crooks would have been at risk of being observed. AND SHOT.
I had considered that it’s plausible for someone else, as you’re suggesting, to have left his post inside the 2 story and gone the same path to/from the roof as Crooks with plausible deniability if seen, jumping down, returning into the building thru the NW doors and resuming his guard post.
The taller roof is practically invisible to the ground, yet offers a similar trajectory, and the shooter could escape off it, jump to the ground in the alcove, and return into AGR#2 guard post.
Perhaps that just too complicated of a plan when firing from the AGR#2 is quite simple and easy to execute.
As for the snick/boom, I’m not thoroughly convinced in the reliability of the data due to too many unknowns and variables which could theoretically account for a fraction of a second. We’re relying on cellular phone videos, compression rates, unknown distances with many variables, etc.
He could have dropped down into that little courtyard behind the second building afterwards, where Greg N could have let him back in. Maybe he cut his hand on the gutter?
There is a ton of plausible deniability as long as no one sees you actually take the shots. You can literally put your head behind Crooks’ head as viewed from the podium area but 80 feet further back. Then if someone says hey I saw you on the roof, just say yeah, I was out there to get Crooks until the SWAT/SS bullets started flying.
Snick/boom depends on bullet velocity and closest approach to the microphone, so there is a lot of slop there.
Time of arrival depends on measuring the timing of a 500 Hz-ish sine wave where you are taking a sample of it every 4 degrees, which is less than an inch, so raw timing can be extremely accurate. The only real variable is whether the microphone and sound source have a line-of-sight view of each other. Most everyone did of Crooks. For a second shooter, wherever he was, almost no one did.
A. The FBI clearly wanted to make ‘note’ of all the ‘attachments’ or ‘possible modifications’ found on the weapon, even down to the picatinny rail. How then do they leave off of their list the offset iron sights? I don’t think those are more common than the picatinny rail yet left absent. They also happen to not detail the muzzle break/flash suppressor used and photographed, which appears to be slotted on the sides and top and solid on the bottom.
Odd.
B. As far as the sound would suggest to me, 3 slower shots followed by a rapid volley of 5 would potentially indicate taking three “well-aimed” shots through an optic, and then rotating to iron sights to spray. Could this rotation to change sights explain a change in audio from certain videos, and then also even less audio discrepancy in other videos? I also imagine the rotation would affect the trajectory of the spent casings too. I don’t think I’ve seen yet; do we have a mapping of where the cases were found in relation to the body or weapon?
Yup, several omissions including the offset iron sites, the forward grip, the muzzle device… Failed to correctly ID the optic as a Holosun and used the model designator instead. The charging handle is not in the locked forward position either. Looks like an intern unfamiliar with guns did this assembly and slide photo/description. Sloppy indeed.
The flash suppressor looks to be a standard A2 flash suppressor. It is the most common one used on AR type rifles. There are other attachments not listed, too.
Okay, but fish-eye optics are weird and also this wouldn’t account for the added height of a person, nor would it account for a larger angle if someone is farther back in the parking lot or approaching from a distance, like several officers were…
No situational awareness of anything else (That is what Nicol was for)
Shooting thru open vents would be extremely difficult for a shooter recessed deep into the attic to avoid visual or sound detection
(I think 18" back would work good. And a side mount scope is needed for the approximate 2" high and 11" wide view through the vent)
We have pretty good video(s) and eye witnesses and no evidence of vents ever opening; and they’d have to be fully obviously opened.
(Agreed it is a challenge with the theory, it would take the confiscating of video (they took Stewarts for 4 days) or altering of police body cam…but…if I am correct, all the video of the vents during the shooting have been under the custody of the state at one point or another)
A fixed position like this would rely on either a lot of coordination or luck so that a object or people are not in the pathway - bleachers, crane, other obstacles, etc. (not really sure that is a problem since Trump is so high and the vent location is so high)
I don’t quite understand why people continue to repeat this incorrect statement. It wasn’t that the assassin missed, as much as Trump simply moved at the last millisecond that saved his life.
The assassin had Trump perfectly aligned in his sights/optic for a lethal bullseye head shot to the temple from his right profile. Trump turned and faced the assassin, presenting a narrower view and shifting his position so his ear was winged. Had Trump not moved, he’d have been dead from an instant kill shot. That is a “hit” under all normal circumstances, and was still a “hit” but only a grazing wound.
Trump moved a millisecond in time, probably at the exact moment the assassin pulled the trigger.
It’s possible. But Nicols wouldn’t really have good visual on Crooks being in position (that is a key requirement to lend credibility to the 1 shooter theory). Sure he can be heard theoretically crawling on the roof but the assassin would need to know he’s in position with his rifle. The vent location assassin could not know Crooks was delayed or interfered with by a cop climbing up for a look, for instance. Or any other events happening on the roof or to the S, W, E, or rooftop of the AGR. If Crooks was for instance detained, or shot and killed, this position would not know.
I don’t know what you’re trying to articulate, but if you have some blinds at home, try to replicate holding a rifle and aiming thru the blinds at a target from several feet back. It would be extremely difficult, adding a huge layer of complexity to shoot thru a vent at a target. You’d be lining up to variables that would be really really difficult.
The lack of any witness or video identifying the vents were open is really problematic.
One further point that could kill the theory is information the interior layout and those vents, which might totally rule it out. Time will tell.
If Semper Fi was standing to the left of Ross, he could not have moved from right to left in the TMZ video.
Someone else could have been filming behind the tree. Since Malis/Piper Grimley pans the camera towards Crooks as he goes behind the tree, it is not possible to see in his video whether anyone was standing there.
In addition, Ross’ face is not too clearly recognizable. You can only see a beard.
It would be best to ask him if he was wearing a cowboy hat there that day.
Serious question, not meant as insulting. Have you ever fired a gun, especially a rifle at a long range target?
There’s recoil, which makes subsequent shots more difficult to be as accurate when fired in rapid succession.
I’d take a educated guess to say the shooter expected the 1st shot to be all that was needed, surprised he missed, fired 2 more as accurate and fast as possible. These would not have been as well aimed. His 1st shot was the best aimed.
Yep, your ground data and theirs match on the elevations of agr6 and Crooks, but not on trump and rail-bleachers On that particular file I’m simulating what Gary mentions on his video. ABOUT THOSE 100 feet.. yes, weird, but as long as it’s flat throughout and he doesn’t start to come up with 'oh that spot the drone had this difference of 100, then at that for x reason it had that much difference, etc", it should be fine.. some error in adjusting or setting zero, maybe?
True. I agree with you. So far Paramount Tactical hasn’t shown the details of Trump elevation. I’m curious to see those. Not to mention the bleachers.. Zero info on that so far, but I’m sure they’ll present something.
@macd
Not to mention he had a zeroed red dot.. why on earth would he use those 45 degree iron sights with a functioning red dot? That said, Ihe could have had the rifle canted while still using the red dot.. especially considering that while we can see the case, we don’t see the red dot itself.. and the Holosun AEMS is quite a bulky accessory.. btw, guys, **cant does cause the bullet to go either more to the left or to the right, trajectory wise.. but at longer distances.. At 155 yards I don’t think cant would impact the horizontal component at a sufficient ammount for it to be concern for a shooter.
On bodycam file 2 from Grassley ( the one where a guy and medic Michele go from podium area to Crooks), there’s a moment they talk to people inside of AGR6.. on that moment, we can see the room with lights out in the backround, same room where a vent would be, I believe, but I don’t believe it was a bathroom from how open that room looked.
I recorded the TMZ video with recoil and casing on Aug 1st from the TMZ website.. It’s on Chri’s X as a reply to a follower here.
Why stills? get the hi-res video from TMZ and use ShotCut to see it, enhance it yourself if you would like and also export directly to a gif in 15,30,60 fps.. You can use features to stabilize, zoom, sharpen the video,etc..
@daniel59 What are your thoughts lately on what happened? Still on fake attempt?
@howdoiknowthisinfo What re your thoughts lately on what happened? Still on HighRoof?
Still frames on a page are still! Doesn’t even have the benefit of the viewer moving a slider back and forth to detect motion. Our eyes can detect the motion! People need to use motion, or at least a video editor’s timeline, I say.
[quote=“greg_n, post:1375, topic:41479, username:greg_n”]
Do you think the data looks fake or real?
[/quote]Why was this closed? I vote Real.
– Easy there, cowboy. It could very well be that the faked (or just different) frames are the ones on the Scooper video, and the objective was to make Crooks appear still, thus supporting the idea of a second shooter. Now who benefits from supporting the idea of a second shooter? Certainly not a conspiracy that tries to pin it on a patsy.. Who, then? Hm..
Or it could be that the videos are two different encodings of the same original 60 fps version, to which we’ll never have access to unless someone calls that Difrischia guy (don’t remember the spelling). Like I keep telling you, Roger, do remember that I have it on X and on my phone (metadata and all), a video capture of the TMZ video, with recoil and case ejection, from Aug 1st, the same one I posted on Chris’s X account as a reply to another one of his followers.. here’s the link… just scroll up after clicking and seeing it, Roger..
My opinion: the vent is possible depending on elevation and A LOT of tinkering we haven’t seen.. the vent’s flaps angle downwards while the rifle’s barrel would have to be pointing on an upward trajectory. The 2nd story window, it depends on which window.. windows west of that vertical AC duct where Greg Nicol was, I’d say NO, since that place’s LOS looks like it was blockedby that LARGE 13 feet tall red harvester. Windows to the East of that vertical duct, then I would have to check trajectories that match window-trump-rail. 2nd story rooftop all the way back? Protected from all of the Counter Sniper teams and not far away at all for 5.56? I would also pick that place. In a heart beat. Possible, sure, but there’s NO audio evidence. The Crack-Thump timings don’t work. The delay would be between 0.3 and 0.45 on Trump’s mic for 7.62 or 5.56 at that distance. No cigar there, but that’s the place I would choose. Can’t for the life of me understand why would anyone pick a more exposed location than that 2 story rooftop all the way back, except maybe that Crook’s range didn’t have that range for him to have ever practiced on, which it doesn’t If I recall correctly from their website.
I have always believed this. But we never seem to see that Holosun AEMS so clearly in it’s full monstruous height for a red-dot.. He could have had a small cant, I believe. But I do believe he used the dot, instead of the iron sights. He could have canted a little bit because of the magazine hitting the roof and getting in the way of his aim, maybe?
Here, mate, have some
YES!!! That, gentlemen, is someone who FIRES AR’s…
I believe he had 2 positions. The one he fired from, and the one he died on. From Piper Grimley’s video we see him moving. I mention a little about this on post 1280 on this thread.
I agree.. I would have chosen that spot, closer to the East, however, arms touching that elevated fixture that exists there, protecting me from being seen by cops on the ground and also a possible water tower sniper, and also giving me distance from the west parking lot and ALSO protecting me from both Hercules positions. I’m not sure if a professional would put himself there, but WHY didn’t Crooks go for that nest? He WANTED the exposure? He had never shot that far away before? WHY?
No, but it could be estimated using Grassley’s bodycam video file 2. I do believe Crooks fired 8 shots from one position 2 or 4 ribs to the east and then after shot 9 he moved and died on rib 20. (counting ribs east to west). Nice observation about the muzzle position, btw.
I agree 100%. The shooter tecnically hit Trump, even with the windage. Trump is really, really lucky to be alive. And I say Crooks aimed for the head. With that 2 MOA dot on that red-dot, at that distance, no way that was aimed at center mass..
Ah, there you go.. I agree 100% with this. 100%.
Unless that 12 button remote control Crooks had on him did something else other than trigger an IED on his car’s trunk.. could some buttons be sending beeps elsewhere and the IED was there only to justify a TWELVE button remote control? Who needs twelve, btw.. when that manufacturer has 4-6-8 button versions.. wel.. who knows..
100%..
Ah.. I don’t believe he reaaaalllyy aimed shots 2 and 3.. he aimed for 1, held it steady and fired a cadence trying to fight the gun jumping. On IPSC (dynamic sport shooting), there are metal targets called poppers that fall down after 1 hit. Experienced shooters on divisions that require a lot of speed will sometimes simply aim at the popper and pull the trigger twice, just to make sure, to improve the odds…could be something along those lines. He aimed for a 3-shot sequence, instead of one-aim-for-each-of-the-3-shots.
Holly sh.. we agree again.. You’re a shooter BigTim. I can tell.. (read my answer above to PhaseFive, same thing.
