I don’t believe one can make that direct conclusion, because almost any “hit” (and we don’t know exactly the injury) would likely throw the bullet trajectory off even a few degrees. Here’s an example from Brandon Herrera shooting a dummy Trump head/ear with a 5.56mm. This minor impact causes the bullet to yawk and start to tumble.
A trained sniper (and I assume this theoretical person would have extensive military and police training/experience) would be unaffected by the heat from a attic over a short period of time. And at most we’re likely theorizing perhaps 445pm til 615pm, a trivial amount of time to endure some attic heat. It could have, theoretically, been as few as 10 minutes if we were to go with the theory that GN was the helper/lookout to keep others out of the building and there was another shooter climbing into and egressing from the snipers nest over a period of maybe 10 or so minutes.
2nd floor 3rd window is a possibility we cannot rule out. However I think we can conclusively eliminate all 1st floor AGR#6 windows. It has been “proven” (I think by a Congress rep) that they do not open and we know none were broken, and furthermore the lower portions have a field of fire obstructed by the fence and bleachers. These windows are a dead end.
There’s literally nowhere else on the roof next to Crooks for a 2nd shooter to “hide,” during or after the shooting. Far too many witnesses and video angles. Where could have have gone? There were 100 sets of eyeballs on that roof.
The vent is viable, the 2nd story window is viable, and the 2nd story rooftop is viable in my view. And if I were the pro, I’d have chosen the latter.
I believe I can see slight recoil on his right shoulder and his left foot. It’s nearly imperceptible but I believe I see it. I think you’re under the impression it’s going to be super obvious but the AR15 simply is so popular in part because there is almost no recoil, making it very easy to learn to shoot. Just like you’re not going to see “rifle smoke” (and you keep mis-spelling rifle), seeing recoil under these circumstances will be difficult at best.
If you watch the video @daniloraf posted a few entries above yours you will see a slow-motion video of someone firing an AR15 and the recoil on that closeup slow motion video is minuscule. It would be very hard to see on a zoomed in low quality cellular phone video from 150 yards away, such as this.
Correct, virtually no recoil and would be very hard to see on a shaky cell phone video camera from 150 yards away. Saying there’s no recoil observed is inconclusive at best.
The evidence shows that Crooks had the rifle in the normal prone firing position during the first audible shot. Whether the took that shot is up for honest debate but the rifle was clearly in the normal upright firing position so the opinion it was canted is plainly incorrect.
Having owned, fired, trained with, and deployed to war with this general rifle platform (AR15 or M4), the ejection pattern is generally strong and to the right, and can be rearward, sideways, forward, or anything in between. There are endless variables but YT videos in slow motion show these cases come out hard and often deflect on the “brass deflector” protrusion rear of the ejection port so they can go any direction to the right. I’ve never seen any go to the left of the shooter, however. On this ribbed roof they would be contained within 1 of the sets of ribs and would not roll down very far because of the tapered neck design, they’d roll only a short distance before being stopped by a rib in the roof.
As for why the shell casing count was initially 5, then 12 minutes later 8 shots, and the odd placement of those 3 other shells, it suspect. I would expect all 8 casings to be to Crooks right side, within close proximity. Apparently some where to his left which is inexplicable and almost impossible absent interference. I would like to see an actual aerial diagram of the exact location of these 8 shell casings but I doubt that will ever happen since the crime scene was quickly destroyed.
I can’t get into the mind of whoever shot at Trump and murdered and injured people. However it would be reasonable to believe the first volley was slower and well-aimed because Trump was stationary and exposed. The second faster and less accurate volley was because Trump went down and was covered by SS agents and no longer exposed so the shooter of the 2nd volley was laying down a larger number of shots to increase hit chances.
The 3rd window offers some benefits, but also problems. It could presumably be seen from those on the ground and by the other counter snipers, possibly. Another issue is trajectory, I haven’t focused on it in detail but I wonder if it is too far away from Crooks trajectory to be a viable location?
If GN “took a walk” and a pro-stepped in to do the job, that’s certainly a possibility.
The false ceiling sniper nest has some real problems, one you have pointed out. I have not scrutinized the videos but I have reviewed them and never observed any movement of any of the vent flaps to an open position - and the vents would have to be wide open. The shooter would have to be deeply recessed to avoid detection, and shooting thru open flaps would add a significant layer of difficulty. For those flaps to open fully, and close, I would think we’d have seen that on the popular video of the scene.
