I guess this would be a natural next step, to document with visual data as well as audio data which shots hit whom/what. So here I try to make a small contribution in this direction.
It appears to me that it is shot #1 that hits Trump’s ear, but I am not sure. In the viral video of Trump, he starts lifting his hand to ear before shot #2 rings; however, the ring of shot #2 in the video is probably the report that arrives .22 later, so by that time shot #2 could have already hit Trump’s ear and prompted his reaction … I’m not sure).
Let’s leave open the possibility that Trump’s ear was hit by shot #1 or #2. I now add video evidence of the first shot’s endpoint, which is the railing of the bleachers to Trump’s left. Specifically, from this video montage by Jeff Ostroff, at 15:05-10, one sees from a nice angle that shot #1 hit the railing near the back corner of the bleacher (puff at or near corner), and (I am pretty sure) it is only later shot #2 that hits the senior with the American flag draped.
Suppose it was shot #1 that hit Trump. If it came from Crooks, then the following line from Crooks’ position of death to the puff on the bleacher’s corner is drawn from the NYT aerial image to Crooks (higher res):
Note how the line is too forward of where Trump’s ear would have been; it is almost outside Trump’s stage, whereas it would have to be behind Trump’s podium to hit his ear. This suggests to me that either (A) it was not shot
#1 that hit Trump, or (B) if it was, the shots 1-3 came from a spot on the AGR roof on the other side of the connecting corridor, several feet away from where Crooks died (if indeed the shot came from the roof). It’s conceivable that Crooks could have taken 1-3 closer to the edge of the roof, and moved several feet to his right and taken 4-8 where he died. But in your spreadsheet of timings, 2.603 seconds separate
#3 from
#4, and Crooks imo could not have managed to move to his right several feet and resighted to end up where he died in 2.603 seconds. So the conclusion under the starting supposition is that: if Crooks fired
#1 he was not where he died (contradicts above line); if Crooks fired 4-8 then he did not fire
#1 (2.603 s too little to move so much).
Now suppose it was shot #2 that hit Trump. If it came from Crooks, then the consider the following line from Crooks’ position of death to American Flagman on the bleacher (higher res):
That line seems much closer to where Trump’s ear would have been behind the podium.
To sum up the deductions and parsing of suppositions, on the basis of this limited evidence (there is much more to bring) the above two paragraphs indicate that either it was shot #2 that hit Trump’s ear (and the audio we experience is delayed relative to his reaction), or it was shot #1 that hit Trumps’ ear but then Crooks did not take all of shots 1-8 (too little time to shoot #3, move several feet right and resight and then take #4, given above lines). My 2 cents for now.
Btw, either of these lines, which combine two videos and your audio analysis, discredit John Cullen’s line from that puff to the water tower/tree canopies. I stand corrected. I realize the importance of combining evidence. So I will start incorporating images and videos to your audio analysis.
Here is an image of Trump’s podium, clearly not so close to the front edge, and making the first line as going through his ear unlikely:
