I am not sure how reliable this news story is, but would be interested in people’s thoughts?
It concerns Tencent accidentally posting “real” (as opposed to “official”) China infected/suspected/death numbers.
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594
My post the other day was intended to help prevent grounds for the likes of the Wikipedia deletion, though probably it would have happened regardless. I copy my post below. I advise refuting in advance the best critiques one can launch against key messages in PP’s video updates.
Inoculating against MSM Criticisms of PP
Thank you Chris and Adam for such excellent information on this virus.
I worry about two general and perhaps widely convincing criticisms of the reporting here.
- If a lot more infections are not reported because of lack of testing or mild symptoms, and if deaths are more likely to be reported (stands to reason), then then the CFR and serious complication rate would actually be much lower. Lack of foregrounding this reasoning. and refuting it if there is a good refutation, could be used to support the accusation of fear-mongering here.
- The lack of evidence of rapidly spreading illnesses outside of China would seem among the most important news to be reported here. Though Chris’s videos have the touched on this, the lack of foregrounding it could be used to support the accusation of fear-mongering here.
If accurate, China knows there are at least 154,000 infected, and 25,000 deaths. The death rate would be at least 16%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/did-chinas-tencent-accidentally-leak-true-terrifying-coronavirus-statistics
I saw that too and thought it was very suspicious. If all those videos purporting to come out of Wuhan are genuine, those numbers would make a lot more sense than the official stats. The 150,000 infections isn’t all that scary, because this is obviously going to get to that level in the near future anyway. What’s terrifying is the implied CFR if those numbers are right. We’d be back to debating how the CFR could be so much higher inside China vs. outside.
Baby tests positive for China virus just 30 hours after birth
“CCTV quoted experts as saying it may be a case of “vertical transmission”, referring to infections passed from mother to child during pregnancy, childbirth or immediately after. The mother had tested positive for the virus before she gave birth.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/baby-tests-positive-for-china-virus-just-30-hours-after-birth/ar-BBZFMSb?ocid=spartanntp
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51371770
Since the virus needs a name …I submit Chinese Acute Respiratory Syndrome…CARS
I have seen various posts querying the apparent difference in case fatality rates between Wuhan and other cities / countries. And if the latest zerohedge story re tencent leaking the real numbers is to be believed, then the difference is even larger.
The reason for this is likely to be the length of time it takes people to die. 13 days ago on January 23rd, there were 197 cases in China outside Hubei province, 2 cases in Hong Kong, 1 case in Japan, 3 in Thailand, 1 in S Korea, 1 in Singapore and 2 in Vietnam. We do not have statistics from 19 days ago, but it was probably something like <100 cases in China outside Hubei (quite possibly significantly less than this) and 0 outside China. Consequently it is not particularly surprising that we, as yet, have very few casualties (reported numbers 11 and 2) in those places.
In fact both of those numbers could be indicative of a higher fatality rate than the numbers from China, except that the data is too unclear to know for sure.
My best guess is still in the 10% range, probably slightly lower for patients with access to treatment and rather higher for those without.
https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2020/02/03/who-working-with-google-to-combat-virus-misinformation
Bottom line? WHO (a political body) and Google will shape what search engine results display.
Not the line: WHO is also battling misinformation, working with Google to ensure that people get facts from the U.N. health agency first when they search for information about the virus.
This is why YouTube, Twitter, Facebook will all algorithmically shape searches away from ‘alt’ media sources. The ones the masses use for primary info.
So the ‘this is just another harmless winter flu meme’ dominates.
Anyone who refutes the NHS/CDC/Govt line, just a conspiratorial crazy, hence WiKi the slur/attack on Dr. Martenson.
Event 201 outlined the control of the mass media narrative. So in that sense this 2019-nCoV timeline is following the plan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoLw-Q8X174
To quote from Frank Herbert’s DUNE
“They had one weapon left and both knew it: treachery…”
Finally, I’m a newbie to these boards. So a BIG thanks you to Chris & Adam of PP for all they do. I was fortunate to read JHKs the Long Emergency back in 2006, which was how I then found this site soon after.
Will update with anything else I think adds smartly to the conversation for the PP community.
[Galene77 out]
Anything from China, at best its CPC approved so of what true value?
The HK epidemiologist (lancet paper) estimated that R0 was 2·68 (95% CrI 2·47–2·86) with an epidemic doubling time of 6·4 days.
That’s as Chris’s useful vid highlighted a 1-3 infection rate.
My ‘best’ guess is the seriously compromised if lucky get quickly, accurately diagnosed and if lucky a mix of IV anti-viral meds that negate the novel ‘evolutionary’ aspects of 2019-nCoV.
In Whuan/China generally how likely is this for patients in the thousands?
Though lets say you’re are a compromised 50s victim in a ICU bed. Would it not be realistic to assume you may need 2-3 weeks for a suitable outcome one way or the other? Recovery v Death
Until this virus seriously takes hold of a 1st world democractic zone think EU/UK, Australia or the USA - on ‘true’ scale numbers side it will remain best guess work.
Again, we assume 1st world govt bodies will be fully honest as the pandemic roles out?
Hi Andy,
This amounts to fear mongering. If you are going to assert such things please back them up / support the assertion with something credible. If you can’t do that then you are wasting our time and detracting from this site’s credibility as a source of believable information.
Thank you,
Jan
Not sure I heard Chris say even 1 time that he was a pandemic expert…
A quote from the article regarding Chris M. -
“One popular series on the virus is produced by a personal finance guru with a history of pushing economic theories about peak oil and other resource crunches, but who has recently rebranded as a pandemic expert as news coverage of the virus has exploded.”
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/02/coronavirus-youtube-creators/
Hi George, I’ve had the same experience speaking with successful professionals who have no concern regarding nCOV right now. I remember clearly previous small outbreaks (Zika, West Nile) where the media’s job was to hype it as much as possible. IMO they do this with storm reporting as well or any bit of news that may help to start a war. I find it fascinating that the media role seems to be quite the opposite at the moment.
The page for that link has apparently been taken down.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/05/802896668/in-quarantined-wuhan-hospital-beds-for-coronavirus-patients-are-scarce
Many such cases are being sent to makeshift isolation wards in requisitioned hotels or clinics to keep them apart from family members while they wait to be screened. Even those who test positive can wait days more for a hospital bed, increasing the risk of infection for others.
U.S. Readies for Coronavirus Pandemic Some Experts Now See as Likely
Total containment isn’t in the cards, said Nancy Messonnier, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “Given the nature of this virus and how it’s spreading, that would be impossible. Our goal is to slow this thing down.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-05/coronavirus-update-governments-prepare-for-pandemic =======================================Production halts at China factories lead to worldwide shortages in components as coronavirus outbreak spreads
General Motors, Volkswagen and Toyota Motor are among companies that have closed China plants at least through February 9, taking heed from several provinces that advised companies not to resume operations any sooner than an extended holiday break.
Tesla is among companies saying they’re monitoring potential supply-chain interruptions for cars built outside China as well.
The outbreak may reduce vehicle output by more than 1.7 million cars because of plant closings, according to IHS Markit.
===========================================
EU and US carmakers warn ‘weeks away’ from China parts shortage
https://www.ft.com/content/48bae4c0-472e-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441 ==================================Coronavirus-linked labor shortages threaten iPhone production: sources
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus-outbreak/Coronavirus-linked-labor-shortages-threaten-iPhone-production-sourcesis broadcasting live
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nti-GbaAm6U
They state any drop in CFR outside of China is due to adequate care for severely ill patients (ICU etc…). No surprise I suppose. They praised China’s efforts to build the new hospitals and are encouraging travel restrictions in the epicenter (Wuhan) and remain skeptical of global travel restrictions. They are unable to say if China is hiding data and will figure that out in the “post” analysis afterwards. “sigh”.
I spoke with an ER doctor yesterday in a casual setting. He says he is way more concerned about influenza virus than nCOV. The reasoning is that he sees the flu often enough, unlike nCOV. In a relatively busy setting, he says, the human mind is geared to be concerned about what is actually in front of you, not so much a hypothetical future scenario.
Google earth is not a real time display of satellite information. There are a few services you can subscribe to to get more immediate satellite information, and many news services subscribe to them. Of course, those are the same services saying all is well, while governments are putting in place quarantines.
You can be sure governments know more about what is going on in China then is being told to the public.
Please keep in mind that when you use an improvised weapon (like insecticide) the law will often consider that “lethal force” in a similar manner as if you had used a weapon. Stick to “non-lethal” options like pepper spray to stay out of trouble.
Rector
'Worst nightmare': Product shortages in store as retailers brace for coronavirus impact
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/worst-nightmare-product-shortages-in-store-as-retailers-brace-for-coronavirus-impact-20200205-p53xxc.html =======================================Screening Travelers for Coronavirus is Ineffective, UCLA Study Says
Only two-thirds of infected travelers will be detected by departure screening in the best-case scenario, the study found, with the worst-case scenario reporting only 1 in 10 cases being detected. The most consistent factor of successful detection is fever screening, but because many travelers are still within the disease’s maximum incubation phase of two weeks, they are not likely to exhibit the symptom while moving through airports or other transit centers. https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/health-wellness/screening-travelers-for-coronavirus-is-ineffective-ucla-study-says/2304006/ ===================================='The only hope': Scientists in the race against time to develop coronavirus vaccine
“We don’t know much about this coronavirus, says Professor Mikhail Prokopenko, director of the Complex Systems Research Group at Sydney University. “The data we’re getting at the moment is patchy... and I was surprised to see how fast it spread,” he told Yahoo News Australia on Thursday. Along with the Marie Bashir Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity, Prof Prokopenko has previously used anonymised census data to model how fast an influenza pandemic could spread in Australian cities. “Containing it is unlikely to be effective as we originally hoped,” he said of coronavirus. https://au.news.yahoo.com/scientists-and-the-race-for-a-coronavirus-vaccine-085720484.htmlAccording to the WHO the prevalence of smoking in the following countries.
http://gamapserver.who.int/gho/interactive_charts/tobacco/use/atlas.html
China: 47.6 %
Canada: 17.7 %
USA: 19.5 %
For a virus that effects the lungs, the incidence of smoking will have some effect in how many people will develop more severe symptoms.