God bless,
-Andy
I did some calculations based on the numbers in the zerohedge article.
It is not perfect but giving an indication. I would also impose very strict isolation like China did to curve these numbers down.
Infection number 154,023 per 1 februari.
Starting 1 december - 1 februari = 62 days.
1.213 ^ 62 = 158.259 so the infection growth rate is 21.3 % per day
the death toll number 24,589 per 1 februari.
Starting 21 december - 1 februari = 41 days
1.28 ^ 41 = 24866 so the death toll growth rate is 28 % per day
Februari Infection number Death toll
1 154,023 24,589
2 186,829 31,473
3 226,624 40,286
4 274,895 51,566
5 333,448 66,005
6 404,473 84,487
7 490,625 108,143
8 595,129 138,423
9 721,891 177,182
10 875,654 226,793
11 1,062,168 290,295
12 1,288,410 371,578
13 1,562,842 475,620
14 1,895,727 608,794
15 2,299,517 779,256
Thanks for those numbers! Might want to include a third column: %Cases requiring ICU/Mechanical Ventilation = ~20% (as high as 30%).
This additional column would better reflect the burden on the available resources in our current healthcare system: woefully inadequate to meet the demands of this pandemic.
An excellent video from Professor Polland of the Mayo Clinic spells out what may lie ahead.
[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ye1OJI_GwyE[/embed]
SO2 Levels Over China and what they mean: files.catbox.moe/dom477.png Chinese SO2 levels
Someone at Tencent (Chinas largest mega company) “accidentally” leaked the real numbers: http://i.4cdn.org/pol/1580913991749.jpg real numbers
Google Maps moved location of Wuhan biolab
http://archive.is/QIBmE
Awaiting the next video - when is it due?
I got it wrong. Watched the video again.
My apologies. Good lesson for me: pay close attention to the details.
Measure twice; cut once.
Doc
So this is the new Wuhan hospital for seriously compromised patients… or is it as I fear a containment camp… where the poorer people go to die?
This is this chap’s 2nd video posted via VPN.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwtY0Tf8hKA
Yes the BIGGER question is do/will the CCP trash 10m folk in the Hubei province for the collective great good?
If you’re not a friend of the ‘party’ seems to me expensive IV care isn’t on the cards.
Being stuck in the bed with some basic pain relief maybe, in which case this is your view.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hf3LLd63gd8
Patient zero in Wuhan was 1st week of December.
Us in the the 1st world west will only know Mid-March/April if its our turn for the IV viral meds rationed… or not.
Who foots the black-swan bill on that?
he table below shows confirmed cases of coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China and other countries. To see a distribution map and a timeline, scroll down. There are currently 27,602 confirmed cases worldwide, including 564 fatalities.
Do not buy a gun unless you’re going to use it. It’s not for scaring people off. Birdshot is for birds. 4 is for varmits. Any shotgun load that won’t penetrate a wall or door will not penetrate a person enough to stop them immediately. Make sure your family and all the good guys are 180 deg behind you. Don’t draw fire in their direction.
Interesting, and probably closer to the truth.
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594?fbclid=IwAR1hfo7ZUwpyRx91Uboi5M-smeMuvNxSTYujIK8EtrHoNft-Y4SN8PLt584
Per past days, these official numbers will likely be adjusted upwards over the next few hours
In reply to Kunga, physicians are licensed to ‘practice’ medicine. Rarely do they know better than Nature in how to keep a patient alive and the smart ones simply try to help things along as best they can. The not-so-good ones believe they are demigods to us mere humans.
Providing supportive care (administering fluids, electrolytes, etc.) is “honoring the body’s wisdom” while herbal administrations (such as kaolin clays, pectin) are suggested to manage diarrhea in traditional systems of healthcare; Americans know the pharmaceutical brand name of this anti-diarrheal concoction as “Kaopectate”. Aspirin is derived from the bark of the willow tree. The two systems are not counterproductive.
Eastern medical systems are very good in promoting health and well-ness; when that health deteriorates into a critical stage of ill-ness and dis-ease, Western ‘allopathic’ medicine is often superior.
Humans are mostly water. Hydration and cleanliness (usually with water) will do more than any pharmaceutical intervention in preventing illness from external agents like viruses and bacteria.
Fever ‘cooks’ the proteins to boost immune response (low/mild fever) and interfere with infectious agent internal chemistry (good thing), but it risks ‘cooking’ the brain (high/raging fever) at the same time, which is considered a bad thing.
Diarrhea flushes out the digestive tract - the stuff the ill are coughing out get trapped in the oropharynx (nose/throat) and swallowed. The digestive tract then may react to flush out the infectious agent in it’s disabled or encapsulated form. Unfortunately, the natural pathway to replenish that water is also that same digestive tract. Enter IV therapy.
We are now entering that place when we will need to be our own experts, as advanced medical care may not be available. One need not be a nursing student to study their curriculum and I’ve met more than one nurse who completed medical school, got their MD and got a nursing license instead.
Knowledge is difficult to steal.
It will kill the hell out of you…
5 healthcare workers sent home to ensure they didn’t contract coronavirus from patient
Note the article never used the term “quarantine”; and that the nCoV positive patient was masked the entire time in the hospital, sent home for isolation. Key question is how many people did the potentially exposed workers interact with, and are/how are those people being tracked?
"Five employees at Good Samaritan Hospital in Silicon Valley were sent home for about two weeks after coming into contact with a patient with coronavirus. "
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-02-04/healthcare-workers-sent-home-coronavirus-patient
Hi Chris and Adam,
Great blog! Just wanted to point out that the number of infected people in Wuhan - CANNOT - be the one released by the chinese government: out of the planes that have evacuated foreigners, i.e. so far Japanese (~200), French (~200 and ~250 the latter including Belgians and other europeans), and Germans, (~125) we find 1-5 infected out of 125-250 passengers (respectively 5, 0, 1 and 2 for the above-mentioned flights).
By chance, we should not be finding any in such small subsamplings from a 10-million strong city.
That’s 8 infected out of 775 in total, so 1.03%, which points to 100,000 infected in Wuhan. Given the reported number, 10 times lower in Wuhan, we should have found only one out of all those passengers. So basically not possible.
And this is considering that these subsamplings correspond to rather privileged people (expats) with potentially lower exposure to the virus (maybe higher access to preventative measures e.g. masks, vitamins etc.)…
A reason for this underestimation is likely, like Chris said, the lack of detection (the sheer lack of tests and patients being turned away from hospitals left to essentially die at home, not counted in). Tragic… And potentially an underlying political agenda by the CCP especially in light of the quasi absence of deaths in other provinces.
Just an update on asymptomatic transmission:
While the NEJM paper probably needs a correction (the chinese businesswoman did have symptoms after all) it does NOT change the fact that the virus was transmitted asymptomatically by patient 1.
Also, we’ve all seen the news about the Diamond Princess, which Chris mentioned in the video: hear, hear, that’s not one, or two but - TEN - infected by the person who was asymptomatic and tested positive once off the ship… Terrifying
UW Health Statement on First Reported Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in Wisconsin
“Madison, Wisconsin - On Thursday, January 30, 2020, a patient presented at the University Hospital emergency department. They had recently traveled to Beijing, China, and interacted with individuals from Wuhan, China, and presented with symptoms consistent with the virus upon their return to Madison.”
https://www.uwhealth.org/news/2019-novel-coronavirus/53149
Note use of term “they” suggests there’s more individuals potentially exposed. It took health officials a week to get test results from the CDC from the date the individual presented at the ER.
They just announced a positive test in Wisconsin today, but oddly they won’t say what city. Anybody have any ideas why they would keep the location secret?
http://www.alt-market.com/index.php/articles/4091-the-lies-we-are-being-told-about-the-coronavirus
Lie #1: Deaths Caused By The Coronavirus Are Nothing Compared To The Death Rate Of The Average Flu... Lie #2: The Coronavirus Came From An Animal Market And The Claim It Is Engineered Is A “Conspiracy Theory”... Lie #3: The Virus Won't Have Any Effect On America Lie #4: The Virus Is Contained