It took 2 years and tens of millions of deaths before there was herd immunity against the Spanish flu.
I think that the response of many countries, not just the US, is due to the firm belief that if you close your eyes, the boogeyman disappears.
However, I have the impression that US commercial healthcare system makes things a little more perverse as compared to other countries.
Yes , garlic in the korean diet is a powerful antimicrobial, I think it works better as a digestive. Reported to be protective of ecoli and food poisoning when consumed at the same time of eating. Kimchi is a ferment/ probiotic. Gut flora is part of immunity. So, their population make be a bit stronger. But, northern italy has more centenarians than anywhere in the world… So, the Mediterranean, high vegetable/legume, low sugar/meat diets ( anti-inflammatory ) is now slouch. So, I do not think this is the issue. Their surveillance is different. Italy could be looking at a much bigger outbreak. and more progressed course of the outbreak.
FYI - Better than nothing…
You can use google trends growth of search terms “cough” and “fever” (or “tosse” and “febbre” in Italy) by region to calculate an approximate of the number of infections. A 5-year period is best (which you can download in CSV format by week)
Assuming the cold/flu causes a baseline 20,000,000 illnesses in the USA over 16-week period (or about 6% of population). In any given week during the 16-week flu season 0.3% of the population will have the flu (fever/cough). Any increases higher than expected could be caused by the honey-badger virus. These diseases may have different google search rates and an adjustment factor would be needed to get a more accurate final estimate - this is a starting point.
Any increase above these prior-year patterns would suggest the spread of honey-badger. You’ll also need to adjust for this year’s flu season and any recent regional spikes in flu related symptoms prior to first reported case. Final calculation would be:
Est. Infections = 6%/16 x population x (google search growth)Examples (these are terribly inaccurate estimates, but give you an idea of the logic). They'll be off by a factor of magnitude.
- +90% growth in searches Seattle (~21,000 infections)
- +30% growth in New York (~18,000 infections)
- +10% growth in California (~12,000 infections)
- +30% growth in San Francisco / San Jose / Oakland
- +80% growth in Italy (~ 140,000 infections)
- +140% growth in Lombardy (~ 42,000 infections)
Just wanted to show this chart as well, in case people thinking that silver dropping now means it “isn’t money after all”:
So ye no i don’t think i will be selling just yet. In fact. What is surprising me is the turn around at EU open. Both Silver and Gold where pushed much lower into the EU open but they’ve bounced and stayed significantly higher an hour later. That’s not a dead cat.
I expect the price to puke when the US opens though. Not because it isn’t money but because severely overlevered traders are going to get margin called to hell and back and they will liquidate anything and everything they can. It wouldn’t surprise me to learn in a few months that people like Warren Buffet scooped up most of it on the way down.
Remember that ol’ WB was sitting on $128 billion in cash while being very bullish on the stock markets? The most ever in the history of his fund? With a Fed willing to do “whatever it takes” and print cash into oblivion? Why would he need all that liquidity i wonder…
To be sure though: This is where my predictions end. Today is going to suck. But from tomorrow onward… there’s no telling what markets will do. The Oil Price War of 2020 is not going to take any prisoners. Covid is not going to take any prisoners. The BBB credit bubble that will explode >today< is not going to take any prisoners.
Irrational people are going to do irrational things. Mechanisms nobody ever thought would activate because the conditions are so outlandish, will be triggered. A lot of debts are going to be settled today… a lot.
And i forgot to buy boxes of popcorn before i went into self isolation >.<
As near as I can tell we have at least another 2000 point decline (or a bit more) in the DJIA index during February before we can start talking about a durable bottom. There is going to be some wild swings coming up along the way but I would not want to own the bounces for very long. But once we get into those 22,000 numbers the natural question is going to be, “are we going to recover and live a little longer inside the bull trend or are we going to break lower and be looking at a genuine bear market getting underway”. That final closing monthly low will matter a lot to our future investment plans. My belief right now is that some critical support lines will not be violated but I will admit I do not know what the vampires of the market have got in store for us quite yet and given crude oil got murdered this morning it might be time to dust off the defensive kit and go all “cover and duck and kiss yer ass goodbye” LOL.
There is very little chance of a near term recovery for silver, Deso. I mention this from time to time on gold blogs but the true believers just refuse to acknowledge it. The thing is silver has already failed in a critical technical area that leaves little doubt about where it is headed next. Forget what the metal heads are saying since most of them can’t read a chart. And then start looking a lot lower. Will we break 14? Yes we will. How about 13? You can count on that too. In fact 12 is no longer out of the question which then puts 10 back into play by November/December 2020 so consider not buying anymore between now and then.
Or do whatever you like. I don’t get paid for giving you guys advice LOL
The thing to remember though is precious metals and silver in particular are not defensives during a commodity deflation such as we are now seeing. The only reason gold is holding up is its still considered money of last resort and since we have now very likely entered the early stages of a default cycle it may actually stay aloft a little longer. But demand is soft and today miners should sell off as the market is intent on dropping to deeper lows. For silver and platinum to succeed you need strong or ongoing industrial growth and since that is absent right now due to a global manufacturing collapse, the prospects for both those metals is very poor. Hopefully this will finally answer the burning question for the metals bugs about whether precious metals really hold their value in both deflationary and inflationary times.
Well the only time in modern history that gold went up during a deflationary period was during the 1930’s and it was because the government seized it all and devalued the dollar. I don’t think that is going to repeat itself. So don’t count on metals. You need dollars to get through this next phase.
Officials set to receive thousands from ship hit by virus
“Federal and state officials in California were preparing Monday to receive thousands of people from a cruise ship that has been idling off the cost of San Francisco with at least 21 people aboard infected with the novel coronavirus.”
“Fences were being installed at an 11-acre site at the Port of Oakland, as authorities readied flights and buses to whisk the more than 2,000 passengers aboard the Grand Princess to military bases or their home countries for a 14-day quarantine. More than 3,500 on the ship hail from 54 countries.”
“…The Port of Oakland was chosen for docking because of its proximity to an airport and a military base, Newsom said. U.S. passengers will be transported to military bases in California, Texas and Georgia, where they’ll be tested for the COVID-19 virus and quarantined.”
“About 1,100 crew on the ship, 19 of whom have tested positive for the new virus, will be quarantined and treated aboard the ship, which will dock elsewhere, Newsom said.”
https://apnews.com/f261b079e06fe65d181db8f9d8b64bd6
Large earthquake strikes off coast of Northern California
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/large-earthquake-strikes-off-coast-of-northern-california/ar-BB10Vpg7?ocid=spartanntp
Japan to boost special financing for coronavirus-hit firms to $16 billion, document shows
“Japan will boost its special financing for small and mid-size firms hit by the coronavirus to 1.6 trillion yen ($15.6 billion), according to a government document seen by Reuters on Monday.”
“The financing, which the government is due to announce on Tuesday, marks a sharp increase from the roughly 500 billion yen previously announced.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-japan-finance-excl/exclusive-japan-to-boost-special-financing-for-coronavirus-hit-firms-to-16-billion-document-shows-idUSKBN20W12A?il=0
You misunderstand. In the very short term silver’s going down. In fact i bought it anticipating at least a 25% drop from where i bought it and we’re nowhere near there. Honestly the run up into February cushioned a lot of those losses now.
The above chart is silver Futures. Paper silver. Those’ll end up in the trash cause they’ll be found to be worthless. I fully expect the paper and physical markets to decouple at some point. After all; where are you going to get physical? If you look into deliveries, you’ll find many if not everybody asks a commission for actual delivery (though from nation to nation it varies there’s no one size fits all solution here, gotta remember that).
For example, in Germany you can no longer buy gold anonymously above 2000 euro. That went into law on the 10th of January 2020. But there isn’t such a law on silver as far as i hear. Or not yet anyway. Not to mention, if gold pops, not everybody can afford to buy it at 2k or 3k an ounce. Since it can’t be done anonymously, it’s just a flick of the switch now to block all sales or move all sales to digital currency (so bank transfers) and then it becomes reeaallll easy to block people from buying it. I’m next door to that country which is trying to rush through a banking union with my country so.
Nah i’m happy with my position with my silver locked in a private vault. There’s 1000 euro in cash as well as 2 gold coins right next to it; i’m no stranger to hedging my bets.
I’m a silver bug only because of upside potential. In the short term everything is going to go down. Of course cash is king. That’s what happens in a crash.
But just like the exits now are too small for everybody to exit at once (Trading rule 1: to sell you need a buy), what do you think when everybody runs for the hills at once? Gold’s gonna pop and when it becomes unaffordable there is only 1 place for people to look.
Every perfect sell signal we’ve had the past 2 weeks. It’s always been the same. Gold up. Silver up. Vix up. Dollar up. Everything else, down. Happened monday 2 weeks ago, wensday 2 weeks ago, even happened last friday (however the USD has been replaced by the EUR for the moment because carry trades are re-evaluating).
If everything is down, silver and gold included, it’s a panic sell. Which is also what i expected and why i linked my tweet from the 7th of february - my advice was and still is to stay the fuck out till the dust settles.
As for deflation. You would be right. But you’re forgetting that the US was on the gold standard during the great depression. Not so much now. There’s no point in confiscating gold then devaluing the dollar against it cause you cannot convert dollars to gold anyway. Instead, the gold confiscation step can just be skipped by printing more dollars.
And print they will do. It’s no coincidence we’ve seen Fed talking heads already mention buying stocks. They’re uncreative and unoriginal so they will choose the Japan option. Which isn’t going to work for the largest economy of the world in a non-financial crisis.
The same scenario will still play out. Declining real world value, increasing monetary base = hyperinflation. Bullish on assets.
But only after the current crash. My question to you is Nairobi, something you can’t see on charts: How many assets you think will remain for >everybody< to scoop up at the bottom at exactly the right time? Because you can say paper price all you want - China and Russia still forbid by law the export of gold…
Exactly how much paper vs how much physical are we talking here? Do you know? Does anybody?
Anybody know what’s up with the VIX? it’s showing as open but everywhere i look it’s not updating at all. It’s just stuck on last friday’s reading. Did it break?
Also shout out to the massive oil rally going on off the lows. WTI was 33% down around 5 am but only 19,5% down 6 hours later. Still massive; but also a massive rally. Can’t really say i know what to make of that one. US market open will be interesting regardless.
I too worry about Silver. I was long in Silver and Plat till a month ago and rotated into Gold, simply as I think there will be pressure on the Industrial Metals in a recession. Silver is about 60% Industrial, Plat is even higher 70+%, but Gold is only about 15%. I’d not be surprised if holders of Industrial Silver dropped their holdings into the market to make ongoing payments.
CNBC’s Rick Santelli suggests giving everyone coronavirus to spare the economy
(edit: …then apologizes for his “stupid” and “insensitive” statement in video thereafter.)
"…maybe we’d be just better off if we gave it to everybody, and then in a month it would be over because the mortality rate of this probably isn’t going to be any different if we did it that way than the long-term picture, but the difference is we’re wreaking havoc on global and domestic economies.”’
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/cnbcs-rick-santelli-suggests-giving-everyone-coronavirus-to-spare-the-economy/ar-BB10OhgN?ocid=spartanntp
Well Deso, WTI crude oil has a massive 10 dollar gap that was created right at the open and its going to be great question as to whether the market will close it or not this month. What a crazy morning. All my charts are broken. Even gold which I did not think could go any higher but did anyway in spite of me. So much for my belief system.
On a different subject, I got a real laugh about Zerohedge scooping Goldman Sachs on oil getting murdered. They even made a good prediction of how big the fall would be and implied it would happen today. They were ahead of Goldman by an entire day. Makes you wonder who in hell does the charting over there but without question, he is really good. Anyway, Goldman was a little late to the party but still managed to get a quick missive out to the vampires and bats before the real carnage started and no doubt their emergency draft that went out Sunday was a key part of triggering traders to SELLLLLLL!
lol
Everything just changed. Charts like JPYUSD that had been a question mark for me for months are now decided. This is a whole new regime the market woke up to today and so there will be more drama coming as the repositioning gets underway. Don’t worry about futures markets though Deso. They are not at risk since that market is there to fulfill a function involving buyers and sellers of commodities. Industry lives there along with a spec crowd and it is essential it continues to function.
If you want to worry it should be about the ETF market, much of which is derivatives based, narrow and heavily owned but not worth snot when the curtain comes down one day as many of those owners have real claims on absolutely nothing in the final analysis. This is why it will be obvious one day why you should own real assets such as quality company shares and of course gold (which I just disparaged earlier) even if it is falling.
It won’t be going to zero though. Other assets most certainly will.
Sparky, your map shows the earthquake happened near Petrolia. Funny but the first quakes started right around the time markets opened and petrol was getting slammed. Must be a coincidence.
‘Punched in the face’: Oil, stocks, bond yields, and bitcoin plunge after crude producers signal a brutal price war
“*Oil, stocks, bond yields, and cryptocurrencies plunged on Monday.”
“*The sell-off was sparked by Russia’s refusal to follow other oil producers in reducing output.”
“*Saudi Arabia now plans to ramp up crude output and slash prices next month.
Oil prices plunged by more than 25%, US indexes are set to open 5% lower, the entire US Treasury yield curve fell below 1% for the first time, and bitcoin dropped 8%.”
‘“The blood really is running in the streets, it’s utter carnage out there,” Neil Wilson, chief market analyst for Markets.com, said in a morning note.
“Equity markets are hideous today and these kind of moves are to be afraid of as they can lead to aggressive tightening in credit that can spiral into real financial distress,” he added.
“We don’t know even know what kind of impact the coronavirus will have on the economy yet bond and equity markets are screaming recession.”’
https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/punched-face-oil-stocks-yields-bitcoin-drop-price-war-2020-3-1028975394
Nairobi, OMG, you’re right! The original article referenced the EQ location as “off the coast of Ferndale, CA” which is where smaller clusters happen frequently. But I looked at the map/article again and then the USGS website and confirmed that the larger 5.9M and several smaller earthquakes hit in “Petrolia”.
Just a crazy coincidence or omen of seismic shifts in the petrol markets over the past few hours? Hopefully not a precursor of carnage yet to come from “the big one” in either environment.
Nice catch, Nairobi–very observant of you!
Well thank you Sparky!
Dirty money: The case against using cash during the coronavirus outbreak
'“There is no doubt we pass microorganisms through cash,” Paul Matewele, a senior lecturer in microbiology at London Metropolitan University, told CNN Business."
'“[Studies show] a number of things we would never have thought would be present.”
According to a 2017 study conducted in New York City, researchers found microorganisms living on the surface of cash, ranging from mouth and vaginal bacteria to flu-like viruses. The World Health Organization recommends washing your hands after handling money, especially before eating food."
“And credit cards aren’t necessarily any more sanitary: Microorganisms are able to transfer to credit cards in similar ways and point-of-sale terminals are used by multiple people.”
“…“It is difficult to know the bacterial load on our hands as we handle our [cash and cards]. I suppose as people move to electronic transactions, the risk is reduced. But we still use our phones [for mobile payments] after touching some surfaces,” said Matewele.”
“In addition to washing your hands after touching money, other forms of protection include using antibacterial or baby wipes to clean phones and credit cards, and carrying your own pen to sign receipts.”
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/07/tech/mobile-payments-coronavirus/index.html