Deso,
Your explanation of how there can be a bid for the thirty year bond but no bid for shorter term debt doesn’t add up to me.
While there is a bid for thirty year bonds the government can borrow thirty year money to pay off the shorter term bonds that become due. So the fact that there is a bid for thirty year bonds means the government can’t fail to repay the shorter term bonds.
Or, if there were no market for short term treasury debt and the government for some reason did not want to issue 30 year bonds then they could repay shorter term investors by simply monetizing more debt - QE5 if you like. And yes if they did this they might cause serious inflation (although it seems to be possible to monetize a lot of debt without doing so) - but if there was an expectation of serious inflation there wouldn’t be a bid for thrity year bonds wich would be worthless under such a scenario.
So I’m not sure how much of your explanation is accurate - but that part of it at least is problematic.
Rebel
The Western Australian health minister has announced “fever clinics” are to open this week for people who think they have coronavirus symptoms. And in NSW, the chief health officer has advised hospitals set up “respiratory clinics” to deal with a potential spike in COVID-19 cases. Other states are set to open their own versions, particularly if transmission of the virus from person to person becomes more established in the community. SourceNo mention of patients being asked to pay anything. I presume that for we the people the costs are all covered by the national health scheme (Medicare). Here's another news item:
The Morrison government has announced a funding partnership with the states expected to see A$1 billion extra spent to deal with health costs around the coronavirus. … Morrison told a news conference: “It’s a demand-driven arrangement - the costs will be what the costs are.…" SourceStill very little evidence of the Honey Badger around here. Only a matter of time, probably.
https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fsante.journaldesfemmes.fr%2Fmaladies%2F2620461-coronavirus-dangereux-pour-qui%2F
Is coronavirus really dangerous?
There are more deaths from scooter accidents than from the coronavirus
The more the coronavirus epidemic spreads worldwide, the greater the concern. Is this mysterious virus really dangerous? For who ? At what age are we most at risk of being infected? Answers from Dr Matthieu Lafaurie, infectious disease specialist.
It’s a fact: the coronavirus has already killed thousands of people around the world. But is that enough to determine its dangerousness? Not quite. Despite its fatality rate, that is to say its ability to kill, other criteria must be taken into account: in particular, its rate of transmission and its rate of complications . However, for the time being, the figures published by the Chinese Center for Disease Control are rather reassuring. Indeed, the researchers believe that:
- 80% of cases are not serious,
- 15% are considered severe,
- 5% are considered serious .
- cardiovascular disease,
- hypertension,
- diabetes,
- chronic respiratory diseases.
Gosh, debu, thank you for your comment and for the link to the Italian doctor’s first-hand experience on the front lines of a hospital overwhelmed by Covid-2019 patients. It is heartbreaking, and eye-opening in that this is what will likely happen in the US and other countries very, very soon.
Maybe Chris can include portions of the doctor’s testimony and link in his next coronavirus update. Here’s the direct link: https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/
The comments from the other readers (from all over the world) on the doctor’s post are also very interesting and informative. Many of them are apparently health care providers and many are expressing fear and concern, both for their patients and their own loved ones. No one seems to feel prepared for this pandemic. Several are shocked and angry at how many people are not taking this coronavirus seriously.
Heart rendering. Among my adult children there is a surgeon, a nurse and a police officer. What lies ahead for them? Can any of us possibly prep for this?
https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.quotidiano.net%2Fcronaca%2Fcoronavirus-italia-contagi-morti-1.5060882
Coronavirus, 7,375 infections in Italy. The death toll is 366, 133 in the past 24 hours
The situation in Lombardy is worsening. General Farina, chief of staff of the Army, was also infected. Borrelli: “Public offices remain open”. The elections in Valle d’Aosta have been postponed, scheduled for April 19. Positive case for ‘Le Iene’, TV show suspended
Rome, 8 March 2020 - The numbers of the infection with Coronavirus are growing. According to data released by the head of the Civil Protection , Angelo Borrelli, in Italy there are other 1,326 patients : the total therefore rises 6,387. There are 3,557 inpatients with symptoms, 650 are in intensive care, 2,180 in home isolation. The number of deaths also increased: 366 (133 deaths today). We are the second country in the world by number of victims, behind only China (over 3 thousand deaths). Today there are 33 healed, for a total of 622. The total balance of the infected is therefore 7,375 (including dead and healed). Borrelli has outlined other numbers. “As far as the forces on the field are concerned, we are about 4 thousand and the number of tents made available for the pre-triage structures is 412”, he said, adding that contracts are being signed for the purchase of "22 million masks surgical. "
“A great appeal that I would like to make to everyone: it is not that a part of Italy is immune, simply at the moment in a part of the country the virus is circulating less. It depends on our behavior, on knowing how to respect social distancing”, reiterated the president of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Silvio Brusaferro . And to those who asked him if there were estimates of when the peak of contagion will arrive, he replied: " Today we cannot get a prediction ‘’.
Today is the new government decree , which closed Lombardy and 14 other provinces. Meanwhile, the southern regions impose mandatory quarantine for those arriving from the north. Instead, almost all the gates in Vò are open: the Municipality in the province of Padua has in fact left the so-called ‘red zone’. In the evening Borrelli signed a new ordinance, which states that “there are no limitations to public offices”, that the decree “applies only to natural persons” in the indicated areas (Lombardy and 14 other provinces) and not “to goods” .
Lombardy: 267 dead
The situation in Lombardy is worsening: there are 4,189 positive cases (3,420 yesterday). 267 died (yesterday 154), all elderly people with a clinical picture already compromised, explained the councilor for Lombard welfare, Giulio Gallera . The discharged and transferred to home 550 (yesterday 524), in home isolation 756 (yesterday 722), in intensive care 399 (yesterday 359), hospitalized not in intensive care 2,217 (yesterday were 1,661), the swabs carried out 18,534 while yesterday were 15,778. In detail, 406 cases related to Covid-19 were recorded in Milan (+45 compared to 361 yesterday), of which 171 in the city. They are “battle numbers,” said Gallera, “but the health system holds up.”
FOCUS: Emilia Romagna - Marche - Tuscany - Umbria
New infections and deaths
In the Marche region there is a seventh death : an 83-year-old man with previous pathologies and positive at Covid-19 died at the Regional Hospital of Torrette in Ancona. In Campania there are 12 other infections for a total of 101 cases. In Sicily, on the other hand, the positives rose to 53 (first hospitalization in Enna). In Umbria two other positives. Meanwhile they are results the governor of Piedmont, Alberto Cirio and general Salvatore Farina , army chief of staff, were positive . Both are well and are in solitary confinement.
Decree March 8: what changes with the new rules
Elections postponed in Valle d’Aosta
The regional elections in Valle d’Aosta are also postponed, scheduled for 19 April. The President of the Region, Renzo Testolin said that they will surely be postponed. The new date will be set in the coming days. One hypothesis is the postponement to 10 May, but the Region is carrying out technical investigations to verify the possibility of a further postponement.
Contagion to ‘Le Iene’, 14 days off
The virus is also spreading in the entertainment world: a case of positivity would have been found within the editorial staff of “Le Iene”, the broadcast broadcast on Italy 1. The program will be interrupted for two weeks, a press release will be released shortly with the details of the case.
Closed culture, Franceschini: the web helps
Museums, archaeological parks, archives, libraries, cinemas and closed theaters throughout Italy. And “the suspension of events, events and shows of any nature, held in any place, both public and private” is envisaged. Minister Franceschini tweeted: “it is a necessary and painful choice. But #culture can reach homes: I ask TVs to program music, theater, cinema, art and all cultural operators to make the most of their social networks and sites”.
Life Care? that is an absolute Oxymoron. More like Death Care. I know these are not robust people… But , no flu would run through a small population like that and leave it a waste land… This is definitely not the flu… 16 and counting out 120 residents… That thing is smoking deadly.
Read the archives here from 10 to 11 years ago. You’ll find more about the Fed, BIS, IMF, World Bank, etc. than you ever dreamed of. Some of the smartest people to have been on this site discussed that topic in the greatest detail here many years ago. Those people are no longer posting here but they educated many folks here very well and I daresay would educate you as well about things you might think you know but perhaps really don’t. I could probably recite pages like 324 and 950 from Tragedy & Hope by heart and have read almost every significant book ever written about the Fed cover to cover as well. That plus working in Manhattan for a number of years and treating everyone from billionaires to bankers to market makers and asking lots of questions gave me a bit of an inside education on the subject and related subjects like DTCC operation. So before making unsubstantiated statements like you did (that can be interpreted by many here as a bit insulting), you may want to do a little bit of research first. And Deso’s manifesto type declarations (the ones that have an actual basis in fact, not the crazy ones) are nothing new around here. It’s just we’ve explored the subject in such detail here that there was nothing much left to discuss so we moved on to other things.
@RebelYell i agree that it’s problematic and makes no sense. That’s also exactly why it’s problematic, because that’s the way stuff is bid. It’s what happens when the yield curve inverts, and it is why people say the yield curve inverting is such a good indicator of recessions: Every time it inverts, people are expecting more trouble in the short term then long term.
Here’s a good example of that in action:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/ultra%203.8.jpg?itok=PxlExGm9
I agree, it is all very confusing. But there is a simple explanation for it. This is not a rational market. It is an irrational panic driven one. The VIX certainly says so.
As i’m typing this oil is fluctuating WILDLY. I mean jumping up and down 2-3% while being down 30-33%, all asset classes are down, EVEN gold is down 0,5% while silver is down 2,5%. (they’re both up 1% again since i last typed that 5 minutes ago. That’s what a volatile and illogical market is).
But hang on? Why would gold and silver be negative in such a bad situation? Aren’t they safe havens?
That’s logic. That’s reason (and in both of those i’ve got an IQ of 150+ tested so trust me i know). This is not a logical or reasonable market.
As much as wall street would have you believe otherwise, “the economy” doesn’t run on math, it runs on people. You can calculate what happens till the cows come home, when somebody panics, all those calculations go out of the window.
I understand humans through and through. I’ve had to, to survive. What’s happening now is basically a stampede. Everybody has no idea what to do. So many people are going to get wiped out today cause they bought the dip. But that was normal logical behavior for such a long time, and now it’s not. How can anybody keep track of when it changes? Where’s the equation to show that moment huh?
MEANWHILE, over on my twitter:
https://twitter.com/DesoGames/status/1225794896390500352
How did i know? People. People never change. Well i was a week off. I’m pretty sure i called that closer then many an analyst though.
My analysis of the bond market is correct. It’s the bond market that is broken at this time. I wouldn’t touch a treasury with a 20 foot pole.
Edit: as for my “crazy” manifestos… Just wait a little bit longer. Once you’ll start seeing what the confusion symptom does to people infected with Covid (and then remember i’ve been through hell trying to get a test, which i still haven’t gotten, simply because i never went abroad) i think you’ll find i handled myself decently well.
I’d like to see what happens to you when you call up 911, say “i can’t breathe” and they say “sir if you don’t calm down we’re going to hang up”. And then have the paramedic not check a single one of your life signs once he arrives. Then go to the emergency room where the only person who sees you is a psychiatrist which has no problem giving you 6 diazepam against your “autistic panic attacks”.
Ever seen that Star Trek episode where Will Riker is performing in a play about how he’s not crazy, but they’re trying to drive him crazy to justify his captivity (while the real thing actually happens to him at the same time). Trust me. That shit’s real.
https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.quotidiano.net%2Fcronaca%2Fcoronavirus-italia-contagi-morti-1.5060882
Coronavirus, prisons in revolt. Three killed in Modena, officers seized in Pavia
Inmates protest over the announced suspension of talks because of the risk of contagion. Prison officers: “From too much in an emergency”
Photogallery Fire and revolt in Modena Video Modena, fire and revolt in prison.
Video
Rome, 8 March 2020 - The revolt in prisons against the new restrictions for the coronavirus emergency is raging . In particular, the announced suspension of the talks was targeted, an unprecedented measure that became necessary to contain the infection. After yesterday’s riots in Salerno , today the situation has deteriorated in Modena , Frosinone, Naples Poggioreale, Alessandria, Foggia, Vercelli and Pavia .
Modena
There have been particularly critical hours in the Emilian city, where there are three victims among the detainees, with two other prisoners hospitalized in intensive care. Investigations are underway on the incident.
In the early afternoon, approximately 530 prisoners reportedly protested for Covid-19 prevention measures and barricaded themselves in the Modena institute. Two officers were slightly injured in the most hectic stages, before prison staff - around twenty policemen and health workers - were sent out. The prefect also arrived on the scene, together with the police who lined up in front of the structure from which smoke was seen coming out, probably due to a mattress fire. Then, late in the evening, the news of the deaths. From sources of the prison administration it is learned that at present no signs of injury on the bodies have resulted.
Two deaths, in fact, are attributable to the use of drugs, while the third prisoner was found in a cyanotic state, the causes of which are still unknown. At the end of the revolt, about 70/80 prisoners would have been transferred to other institutions. According to SAP, the prison police union, the prisoners “ask for measures against the risk of infection”, explains the secretary Aldo Di Giacomo.
GALLERY
Modena, fire and revolt in prison.
Pavia
In Torre del Gallo , the district house of Pavia , two prison officers on duty in the structure were held hostage for a few minutes by some inmates. So far the news on the incident is sparse, the detainees would have been able to steal the keys to the cells from the agents, which were opened and therefore allowed other detainees to leave. The agents were also reportedly beaten violently. Some rumors, unconfirmed, speak of vandalism and also of physical clashes, settlement of accounts, among the prisoners themselves.
During the night the situation would return to normal. The prisoners got off the roofs and walkways where they barricaded themselves after a negotiation with the assistant prosecutor from Pavia Mario Venditti.
Prisons in revolt
Tension also in the prison of Frosinone , where an entire ward would have been destroyed (but there would have been no escape, unlike what reported by some media). A hundred inmates are demanding ad hoc measures for the coronavirus. Many left the sections reaching the promenade area and the walls. But the " prison of Foggia , where there would also be tensions and heavy unrest and, again, from Naples Poggioreale, where the tensions of yesterday would have resulted in these minutes in vibrant protests" are also in revolt.
Uilpa: too much is an emergency in prisons
Gennarino De Fazio, of the 1st National Penitentiary Police , explains the situation as follows: "These are dramatic and convulsive moments in which, as women and statesmen, we first think about defending democratic institutions and the security of citizens, therefore we have news of the whole partial and fragmentary, but univocal in recounting serious tensions and unrest in many penitentiary institutions in the country. Only last night, we had said that prisons will end up being the final test of the government, also because no one who knows the prison could not knowing what would happen. "
And the Uilpa leader insists: "I repeat it, do not say that what is happening is for the coronavirus, but it is with the coronavirus, because the serious emergency state that grips prisons, prisoners and those who work in it has been in existence for too long time and only the improvisation of those who have the duty to manage them politically, on behalf of the citizens, could not have foreseen what is happening in these hours ".
Thanks Alexis. No, I don’t have an oil chart site since I make all my own material. This was a truly exceptional drop in the futures open tonight though. Price is off almost 60% since the intraday highs in early January so there are hardly enough descriptive words for our current price collapse. Nor enough expletives if you were on the wrong side of that trade (I was not thank goodness). We had a trigger warning a week ago at the start of March and a few days later I remarked on DaveFairtex blog we could put 20 dollars oil in our sights. But I did not have enough imagination to think we would get most of the way there in just a couple days. Anyway, there is some good support we are on right now at this mornings lows and it could be worth our time to try and make hay on a dead cat bounce. Lets see how this plays out by morning. Meanwhile, my worst case scenario is that WTI futures will hit 10 dollars and I do not think that can be avoided at this stage although when it gets there is anyone’s best guess.
While warm air holds more total moisture, in most locations beyond the tropics warmer weather and longer daylight hours bring lower ‘relative humidity’. This is why things dry out faster during summer months. If the virus also drys out it may brake or inactivate in less time. However, if you spend most of your time in ‘air conditioned’ spaces with others, possible summer benefits might be nullified. Someone please correct me if I’m wrong.
I have read the paper. And I hope they are right, but there are implicit assumptions:
- all virus strains have the same infection rate an lethality,
- boat quarantine was not effective,
- China numbers can be used.
Just for perspective, the price that crude oil has hit this morning is much worse than some people may imagine. In inflation adjusted dollars you could go all the way back to 1957 and price was the rough equivalent of what it fell to today when it crashed to 27.30 which is why I wondered aloud if this current massive oil price deflation were not actually warning us a depression was coming.
We do factually have an industrial slowdown across the globe right now that is indicating dire outcomes for freight, airlines, shipping, trucking, tourism, hotels and pretty much anything else you can imagine since it is all connected. I can also appreciate that there are writers quick to blame the Russian OPEC negotiators for tilting us into this current energy price collapse as they were indeed the actors who broke the charts this week.
We were going there anyway. That much could be forecast since lower prices were assured over time. It was really a matter of when it would happen though. So we won’t kid ourselves about the strategic purpose behind crashing oil. The Russians can read oil charts too and they KNEW where that breakdown trigger was going to come into play which suggests to me that their lack of cooperation at OPECs meeting was a deliberate act to break America’s oil market.
Fighting words? You better believe it. We all watch the same support and resistance levels and we all know where the charts will break. It could not have been an accident that the Russians refused to get onboard with production cuts as a means to continue to support crude oil prices. No accident at all and furthermore they are well aware of the extremely high leverage and credit risk in US markets and would be able to predict the outcomes (just watch what happens next, this is going to get really ugly).
What I am saying is they did this on purpose to destabilize energy and credit markets at a very crucial juncture in an opportunistic way to achieve their own ends. Putin is a bigger snake that Xi and for all we know they have worked this out between themselves ahead of time. Crashing US markets is a strategy employed by your adversaries for their own benefit. And since Russia has such a low debt to GDP number and limited exposure to dollars it apparently suits them as one of the worlds top oil producers to sell at prices that bankrupt almost everyone else.
But this isn’t really about oil at all. Is it…
Canadian Prepper: “How to Filter Airborne Viruses and Survive! A Complete Guide” (video, 3/8/20)
https://youtu.be/VnoF6FduMII
“CP” is pretty legit, does his research, and uses most everything he sells which is high quality, not necessarily high priced. In this video, he reviews different types of respirators and goes over pros/cons.
I’ve bought stuff from him and have been very satisfied with the response, delivery and quality. He still has some respirators and other pandemic supplies in stock and some pending delivery, but has been really impacted by increased demand with diminishing/frozen supply for some items. Like Chris and PP, all his coronavirus videos (and others deemed not “advertiser friendly”) have been de-monetized or censored/removed.
Disclosure: I don’t have any personal or financial interests in Canadian Prepper, LLC or its personnel.
I am just looking at lawrence garbuz, He is basically in the prime of his life, with two children in high school and college. He is a successful professional. Yet he is in the ICU fighting for his life…
I wonder what Pres Trump will say to that? I personally do not think Trump would fair out better , he looks to have some basic metabolic syndrome at the least.
A bigger problem is , what happens to you and I after there are no ICU beds left… This is a no brainer… But dont worry its just the flu… it only kills elderly sick people… Tell that to lawrence’s family.
The British Health Ministry seems to be tweeting those stats daily. Where can one cobble similar for the US?
Hi RebelYell,
I agree with your conclusion that the outfall can be contained. A prerequisite however is that rather stringent measures have to be taken: quarantine seems to work. In other words, the numbers and conclusion are conditional on containment policies.
It would be very interesting to understand the very different CFRs for Italy and S.Korea. Is this purely due to the Korean approach, where they use technology to “quarantine“. Is the Italian strain more dangerous? Does eating kimchi and massive amounts of garlic help? (Not a joke, but imo a serious question: kimchi is a good, very spicy probiotic, garlic also has some amazing health benefits).
The US response – “don’t test / don’t tell” – was, within feasible limits, optimized to maximize the growth rate of herd immunity, with high initial mortality but (if the infection rate can get well into the double digits fast enough) perhaps lower eventual pre-vaccine mortality.