Yes - completely agree that undercounting means CFR between 0.2% and 0.5%. See various of my posts saying exactly that over the last few days. This also means hospitalization rate of ~2%, not 10% - 20%.
However that’s not the same as saying that the virus won’t have serious consequences. Clearly there still exists the possibility of overwhelming the health system - so we will still require significant societal measures (school closures / work from home / no large gatherings etc.) in order to limit the usage of hospital beds.
However the problem is an order of magnitude smaller than Chris currently fears. My guess is that hotter weather does significantly reduce infectiousness, and that therefore
we will get through the summer OK here in the US but that we could potentially have a significant problem next winter which will require large scale interventions.
the problem period will be of briefer duration and impact far fewer people overall than some people currently fear
None of this necessarily changes any of Chris’s health and preparation advice - we should all still prepare to keep ourselves safe and fed in the event of a possible quarantine.
I’m not so sure about selling out of the stock market though because - if this lower CFR turns out to be correct - then the rebound could be quite fast.
Hopefully this study is indeed correct.
Rebel
I disagree with Dr. Gottlieb’s politics, but appreciate his clarity, especially his interview today (Sun Mar 8).
Mr. Griffin, on the other hand, is / was in John Birch Society, which is not a public health organization. There are lots of better, more accurate places to learn about exponential growth of fiat currency and finite energy (such as “The Crash Course,” here at PP). Richard Heinberg’s writings are also recommended.
These are not partisan disagreements (my politics are none of the above).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d86DRn7T098
This video was made 10 years ago and talks specifically about attacking Iran then releasing a flu and respiratory disease on the Chinese. They laugh about the “chinese catching a cold. It then becomes a world pandemic and world war 3 starts. Please watch it. More people need to know about this. Start watching at 14:57
However the problem is an order of magnitude smaller than Chris currently fears. My guess is that hotter weather does significantly reduce infectiousness, and that therefore ...
Rebel, I can’t help but wonder if during all the analyses you’ll are doin if you and Chris too, included collateral damage? What’s that you ask? It’s all those people who wind up in the hospital not necessarily from the virus its-self but from the extenuating circumstances.
Lots of people take a whole lot of meds. What happens when they run out? What about social violence. Increased stress can cause increased trips to the ER.
I like The quote by Liz Specht -
“Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-formed complacency. It is wrong to assuage the public by saying only 2% will die. People aren’t adequately grasping the national and global systemic burden wrought by this swift moving disease.....
I would suggest if the disease started to wane and disappear it might get a nudge, to meet an agenda. (Read between the lines)
Nicely worded post by the way!
AKGranny
Will this be the musical accompaniment to the equity markets this week? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6-9p9O-nYw
Stay tuned this week for Round 2 of The Fed vs. Market Forces.
BillL, I agree Deso has presented some rich geopolitical economic analysis and I’m heartily glad he’s back and feeling well.
But I was surprised and dismayed at your comment about people on this site not being aware of or able to handle the “truth” about the Federal Reserve, or “The Fed”. What is your basis or evidence for your comment?
This is a pretty astute group here and if you’d take the time to venture off the comment section of the current thread-of-the-day, you’ll find there’s a treasure trove of articles, videos, podcasts and great and insightful commentary by PP members dating back more than a decade on the three E’s: the economy (including the Fed and accomplices) , energy, and the environment.
The coronavirus pandemic is a massive black swan event, but one that ties into/is best understood within the context of the three E’s. (I think Chris has tried to explain this briefly in some of his more recent videos and articles, especially to provide context for some of our newer PP members like you.)
I’ve been here since 2016, perhaps not really long enough to be considered an “old-timer” like thc0655 and many other PP members. But I’m certainly aware of the origins, destructive history and function of the Federal Reserve, the other Central Banks, the IMF, the BIS, etc. fiat currencies, power, limits of growth/depopulation… I’m not misinformed about the “truth” of the Fed and I most certainly can handle it and then some.
In this case, I think you’re the one who is misinformed about the depth of knowledge, insight and experience among the PP tribe. I’m confident with a bit of effort over time you’ll catch-up and catch-on though.
RebelYell,
Not sure if you read the study but it puts the range for IFR as from 0.2% to 1.2%, not 0.2% to 0.5%. So it may be as high as 1.2% if this study is correct. We can’t know for certain and the Diamond Princess situation is the only one where they can gather data for the estimation, so the error is likely quite high. Hopefully, it’ll turn out to be only twice as bad as the 'flu but we probably won’t know for many months or years.
Analyst View: Oil price plunge, coronavirus fears unleash market chaos
JOHN LEKAS, CEO, LEADER CAPITAL, VANCOUVER, WA:
‘“We are in an Armageddon situation. We could move down 30% in the equity markets in the next 30 days. We are at floor 8 after a jump off a 20 story building."’
‘“The 10 year is your growth rate, give or take a little. That means growth in essence went from a little over two to basically zero overnight. Two quarters of negative gross domestic product is a recession. We will most likely get that."’
‘“It also puts U.S. President Donald Trump’s election at risk. The market has not caught up to the facts."’
‘“The bond market action is something I have never seen in my lifetime. The argument that low rates mean cheap money… doesn’t hold because credit gets tight and cash disappears.”’ and more comments from analysts… https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-views-analyst/analyst-view-oil-price-plunge-coronavirus-fears-unleash-market-chaos-idUSKBN20W02E?il=0
Hello, everyone, thank you so much for all of your insight and wisdom and caring shared in your posts. I am so grateful to have found this site, Chris and Adam and for all of you.
Here is what has been puzzling me, we know that this virus can be incubating for quite a while in an asymptomatic person, while shedding and transmitting to others, so if we assume that it has been in our communities for a while, how do we know that several deaths, over the last few weeks, especially in communities with older populations like nursing homes, have not been due to the virus?
Every day across the country, as we have been first talking about corona virus people are dying of the flu, pneumonia, meningitis, heart attacks and kidney failure. Some of the recent research is showing that the virus can attack cells in major organs like the brain, the lungs, the heart, the kidneys, how do we know some of these deaths are not outcomes of the virus, or at least comorbid conditions?
There are some banned videos out of China showing people who seem to be experiencing seizures, on hospital gurneys or on the street, or just collapsing on the street. The same is true of Iran.
There is a research paper from China referencing a patient, who said she had to force herself to stay awake at night to remember to breathe, since her autonomic nervous system was not doing so for her. A twenty year old male is now hospitalized in Japan, after collapsing from what the doctors believe to be meningitis and pneumonia caused by the virus. It may be the virus is invading the nervous system, not just the respiratory system.
All of this seems to show that perhaps people have been dying in many countries, including the U.S., of assumed “natural” causes, but are, in fact dying from the virus? Without autopsy or tissue harvesting we can’t know.
As for the survivors I would be curious to understand the sequelae, long term prognosis for the recovered. Do they have permanent damage to certain organs, can this virus behave like Polio, with a long asymptomatic incubation, fecal shedding, vastly differing outcomes for patients and a post polio syndrome that affects them years later?
This last thought is one of the question I am asking that seem to wake up my loved ones. There is so much that we don’t know, but what if it is like Polio?
Thank you for all of your posts, I am learning so much here.
Global stocks tumble as oil crashes
“Global stocks are collapsing Monday as the novel coronavirus outbreak and an oil crash rattle investors.
S&P 500 (INX) futures plunged as much as 5% Sunday evening, triggering a limit that prevents futures from trading below that mark. Dow (DJI) futures fell more than 1,000 points, or about 4.2%. Nasdaq Composite (COMP) futures were down 4.5%.
The sell-off carried over into Asia Pacific, where Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 5.9% on Monday, putting the index on pace for its biggest plunge since October 2008. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (N225) sank nearly 5% and was last below 20,000 points, heading for its lowest close in more than a year.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) lost more than 4% after markets opened, setting the index up for its biggest decline in more than two years. South Korea’s Kospi (KOSPI) and China’s Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) fell 3% and 2%, respectively.”
“Safe haven assets soared. The Japanese yen surged against the US dollar to its strongest level in more than three years, while gold is trading above $1,700 per ounce and hitting its highest levels since 2012.
The 10-year Treasury yield, meanwhile, fell to a record low Sunday evening — below 0.5%. The yield was last slightly above that mark.” https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/08/investing/stock-dow-futures-coronavirus/index.html
I take your points, Rebelyell, and I have wondered about what a truly accurate count (which we will probably never have) would tell us about the actual CFR and R0, but… fact remains that both Wuhan and Italy have excellent health care systems and they are overwhelmed, so there must be a multiplier in there somewhere. Initial explosive exponential infection rates appear to be key. Whether it keeps it up, we’ll see. Don’t really trust the numbers from China even now.
After seeing FEMA in action in Texas hurricanes, my best description is keystone cops look good.
Houston has been training CERT teams (community emergency response) for 10 years because they say people will be on their own for days and we need to be trained in basic search and rescue and first aid. Indeed, Fema doesn’t supply food and water in Houston. Kroger, HEB and Randalls stage their full trucks just outside the predicted storm area and they’re delivering emergency supplies to every store that can open as soon as the roads are clear.
Interstate power companies actually have a pretty good system of mutual aid. I remember being in a 3 lane 2 mile traffic blockage when people suddenly jumped out of cars and started cheering. We were blocked by a convoy of repair trucks from northern utilities - I recognized Ontario Hydro (thanks Canada) and several midwestern utilities.
As much as I complain about American business practices, there are some responsible businesses that step up in emergencies, like our local food stores. I’ve never noticed price increases. I’m starting to pay attention to businesses here in WI that I think might step up as responsible community partners.
OK.
So from what I read, In the gen. Population, all ages, 80% get mild illness, 15% need hosp. & 5% need ICU. BUT, of those 65yo or over, 15% get severe disease [I think requiring ICU care].
Does anyone have data like: in ages 65-74, & 75-84, 85 or> how many fall into each group of; mild, hosp., & ICU in each age group?
A start would be what % of sample pop. Falls in each age group?
Also, prob. Not available, but would be nice how many of each group have co-morbidities?
I probably am in the “just don’t get it” crowd, since I’ll be 85 in July, have stage 4 cronic Kidney disease, A-fib [doesn’t bother me], history of Crohn’s w/ extensive intestinal resection [no longer active, but have ‘short-gut’ syndrome]& , tho I quit 1 ½ yr ago, I smoked for ~40 yrs [but no disease viz. On xray or CT]. “Otherwise, I’m in pretty good shape”.
Anyone have any info?
Wynn
sofistek
Not sure if you read the study but it puts the range for IFR as from 0.2% to 1.2%, not 0.2% to 0.5%.
0.2% to 0.5% is my own estimate and falls in line with the lower end of the paper's estimate. I am comfortable with this because the paper was written five days ago - and the way they matched the data from the Diamond Princess to the Chinese study meant that they implied a significant number of additional deaths to the patients who remained ill from the Diamond Princess. However an additional five days has passed with no further deaths which should significantly reduce the upper bound of the estimate based on the methodology they used.
So it may be as high as 1.2% if this study is correct. We can’t know for certain and the Diamond Princess situation is the only one where they can gather data for the estimation, so the error is likely quite high.
True. But we can also see the Chinese numbers from outside Wuhan, and the South Korean numbers. Both countries are testing aggressively (unlike other places), but even so these data sets should still overstate the IFR. Both numbers are well below 1%.
Granny
included collateral damage? What’s that you ask? It’s all those people who wind up in the hospital not necessarily from the virus its-self but from the extenuating circumstances. Lots of people take a whole lot of meds. What happens when they run out? What about social violence. Increased stress can cause increased trips to the ER.
If IFR is >2% and hospitalization ratios are >10% then the collateral damage is unfortunately going to be high. If IFR < 0.5% and hospitalization ~2% then the damage should be massively less. Basically the way to manage this is to implement social measures designed to ensure that hospitals don't get overwhelmed. An IFR of <0.5% allows for significantly less economically destructive measures implemented for a much, much shorter period.
I like The quote by Liz Specht –“Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-formed complacency. It is wrong to assuage the public by saying only 2% will die. People aren’t adequately grasping the national and global systemic burden wrought by this swift moving disease…..
But if Liz is wrong about the IFR and only 0.2% will die, then overreacting will quite possibly cause more collateral damage than the damage the disease itself will cause. In that case panic is a really bad idea.
I would suggest if the disease started to wane and disappear it might get a nudge, to meet an agenda. (Read between the lines)
One thing did strike me over the last day or so. It is possible that our government's incompetence may not have hurt us too much. If the IFR is at the low end of the various ranges discussed then the collateral damage may well be a bigger problem than the direct damage. And in that case - horrible as it might at first sound - it might turn out that the faster we get the whole thing over with the better.
Nicely worded post by the way!
Thank you. I tried to take your earlier feedback into account.
Why is stock market legal but regular gambling illegal in most places?? Baffles me. I feel like I need cliff notes to understand the terrible history so many of these OLD companies have… repos was completely knew to me and I do not feel like that is common knowledge. I have recently learned the fed is not who they say they are, but I am knew to being “woke” I suppose you could say. Ignorance is certainly bliss in this nightmare fairy tale.
virus + stock losses and oil crashing, I mean wow… I really don’t want to ask the universe what else we are going to be thrown in 2020. Wondering what happens in the USA if the stocks drop, how does this effect our communities and peoples willingness to NOT spend money on concerts, partying, sports events? Will it help our social distancing because people will have to stay home??? Indirect benefit of prices crashing? Wondering wondering. I am too knew into this stuff to have clue if that even matters. LOL
I think if The Powers That Be (TPTB) want this to be a bad Pandemic it will be. If they don’t care then it might, turn out to be mild as your numbers reflect.
Have no proof. But it makes sense.
As a polio survivor with mild pps now, and remembering the fear and anguish of the epidemic years, I can only hope they develop a vaccine that really does GET it. The polio viruses (there were at least four, and a bunch more - cocksackie - that were similar) were real loose cannon. It attacked the neurological connections - if it hit the part of the brain that managed your limbs, that’s what would be paralyzed. If it hit your respiratory system, you needed the iron lung. If you were lucky, it went through your gastric system and you got a “bad flu” - but even with that you could still get the sequelae later. Or, while we’re looking at worst cases, it could be like the herpes (cold sore/shingles) viruses, and you’ve got it for life, waiting to be reactivated by… whatever. Only obviously worse, if it leads to people suddenly collapsing in the street. It’s hard to over-emphasize, it isn’t worth playing at roulette with this thing. As Chris keeps saying and demonstrating, we need to avoid catching it if we possibly can. Bad enough that it’s making martyrs out of our HCWs and Drs, we don’t have to add to the body count from sheer carelessness.