Your post gets us closer. It reflects confirmed cases. I am looking for the exponential projection of cases in the future. I suspect it will be shocking and will provide a good frame of reference. But may be censored.
Thanks again.
AKGrannyWGrit
How do you know it’s good for skin rejuvenation?
OK - I think there’s something wrong with the maths in the video and most of the maths on this thread.
My initial view back in January, was in line with what is expressed here. However as more data has emerged my view has changed and I think that the maths shown here might be significantly wrong.
Just to be crystal clear - even if I am right there is still a risk of our hospital system getting overwhelmed and we still need to immediately take large scale measures to reduce R and slow the spread of the virus. I am just as frustrated as everyone else here about our government’s response, but I think there is good reason to at least have hope that the scale of eventual suffering will be much lower than feared.
Specifically I believe that most of the errors stem from the serious undercounting of mild and completely asymptomatic infections which, if true, would imply three significant conclusions:
- The CFR is much lower than suggested. Evidence from the Diamond Princess for example appears to indicate a CFR of 0.85% for a relatively high risk (mean age significantly higher than general population) sample. The fact that South Korea has tested 6 times as many people per capita as Italy and appears to have a much lower CFR is strong support for this conclusion too. My own best guess at CFR is between 0.2% - 0.5%.
- Far more people are already infected than current estimates.
- The percentage of cases requiring hospitalization is much lower than 10%.
If you accept the evidence from South Korea and the Diamond Princess as strong evidence of CFR between 0.2% and 0.5% in the general population, then
- that directly implies a hospitalzation rate of about 1% - 5%
- let’s use a doubling period of 5 days
- let’s use a mean time to fatality of 15 days from infection.
Unfortunately the US numbers are a bit tricky because they include
(a) a relatively large number of people who were evacuated and therafter quarantined and consequently not spreading in the general population
(b) a disproportionate number of fatalities from a skilled nursing care home in Washington which specialized in rehabilitative care for severely ill, very elderly patients - and who have therefore sadly died at a very high rate.
The numbers we really need to use to start our projection from are the number of fatalities arising from “normal” community spread in the US and unfortunately I don’t actually know what this number is.
If we assume that this number is currently 10 then that would imply that we have ~24,000 infections in the US as of today.
Unchecked that would imply about 6 million infections in 40 days, and a requirement for 120,000 hospital beds. However, if you assume that, despite the incompetence displayed so far, our government does at some stage implement sensible measures - and that even if they don’t - we the people do it ourselves anyway - I don’t think it is unreasonable to assume we can increase the doubling period to 12 days. In that case we need only ~4,000 hospital beds by the end of May.
I also think it is reasonable to infer from the data from hotter countries that the disease is considerably less infectious in warmer temperatures, so that we should be able to maintain approximately this level of hospital requirement through the summer.
That will at least buy us some time to better prepare. But even if I am correct in everything stated here, we will still likely start to see significant problems in September/October - but the duration of the worst part of the epidemic in terms of human suffering will be shorter and the total number of people impacted will be much smaller than if I am wrong.
Thanks for sharing all!
Nairobi, you have a very interesting point that I do believe. Can you share where you prefer to review charts? I found some quite astonishing information thanks to your tip on crude oil charts. https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts Living in Houstom, Tx and going through the recent O&G fallout several years ok was very hard for many of my neighbors and business, including my own sisters family. Very unnerving times!
Satoshi- this is def like knowing a tsunami is coming, great analogy!!
Desogames- WOW, you have an amazing grasp on worldwide economics and appreciate your insight into it all. 2 weeks ago I pondered my roth ira (I am 38yo), today I am pondering the education funds of my children at this time. Wow, really really crazy times wondering if a 15 yo payout will be reasonable if everything crashes with a global depression! oof!!
Gold prices seem to register … concern. Straight up to 1699.9 at opening. It should be the battle royale between now and tomorrow’s US equity market opening.
Do you mean this one? https://peakprosperity.com/video/crash-course-chapter-3-exponential-growth-3/
and this one?
https://peakprosperity.com/video/crash-course-chapter-4-compounding-is-the-problem-2/
The first official outbreak in AZ just occurred 60 miles to the north of Tucson. I have several months worth of toilet paper (I visited COSTCO a few weeks ago), 30 gallons of nearly distilled drinking water, a UV sterilizing device, boxes of instant oatmeal, and hopefully some N95 masks by tomorrow.
I guess there will always be some people who will find ways of profiting from these disasters:
https://www.mintpressnews.com/big-banks-call-wall-street-deregulation-fight-coronavirus/265558/
It’s also interesting how these outbreaks all started with the economic enemies of the US. Or as the Project for a New American Century put it: “Advanced forms of biological warfare that can ‘target’ specific genotypes may transform biological warfare … to a politically useful tool.”
This paper is the result of some analysis on the Diamond Princess cases, using the numbers to project to open populations. The authors tried to account for the delays between case confirmation and an outcome, plus some other factors. So they recognize that simply dividing deaths into cases is a naive estimate. They estimate that what the call the Infection Fatality Rate (including estimated unconfirmed cases) in China is as low as 0.2% (with a best estimate of 0.5%) and a CFR (from confirmed cases) of 1.1%.
Any thoughts on this?
Do computers also have ACE2 Receptors? Mutations are so unpredictable. ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d86DRn7T098.
This video was made 10 years ago and talks specifically about attacking Iran then releasing a flu and respiratory disease on the Chinese. They laugh about the “chinese catching a cold. It then becomes a world pandemic and world war 3 starts. Start 14:57. Watching the whole thing is recommended.
Maybe only a few here are interested/or knows the truth of the FED. To much for them to handle.
I have been trying to think about this. So far thinking… Donning gloves… move packages to the garage. Spray down outside of packages and mail with mix of 1/3 hydrogen peroxide and water… open and then spray contents with mixture (if possible). Allow to dry. Dispose of gloves. Hand Sanitize. Any ideas??
Those comparing it to the flue saying the death rate is artificially high due to uncounted cases because they are mid and not reported.
I have had the flue many times, and only once have I gone to the doctor, as I was bad and it turned out I had developed bacterial pneumonia.
This will be the case with many people, so the number of unreported flue cases is just a guess, probably better than the guess on the number of nu-diagnosed covid 19.
And Italy just reported 1000+ cases giving a 1+1=11 math death rate of 5%,
They are sill failing to account for the recently diagnosed that will die…
Take care, Hamish
Would you kindly share a detailed outline of your decontamination protocol on returning to your house after being out and about?
Thanks so much for your time. I am getting my own protocol set up with input from Chris, you and others.
I too have made this decision. My 4 year old daughter no longer goes shopping with us as of last week. My wife and I will do solitary shopping in full PPE from this point forward I mentioned in the forum last week would be my last week shopping wihtout PPE. I usually shop during off hours and try to maintain distance… Pull things from the back of the shelf when possible and quarantine all dry stuffs for days before use. Wet items like juice and milk , and bottles all frozen bagged sealed items all get washed before going to the fridge. Actually, I have done this somewhat during flu anyhow. I am pretty much stocked for about 4-12 mos based on which staples you look at. I have a standard half mask respirator, with n95 filters ( not sure if this is a true answer. I do not have sealed eye wear. but i do not intend to be near infectious people or people in general. I have ozone and uvc lights. But, I am not at the point of locking myself completely indoors. just not going out except for essentials - I will still get a few things i need for my hydroponic garden and some lights as my yard is not sufficient light to grow. I am working on some improvised weapons, booby traps. mass destruction weapons… ( small scale ) for defense from multiple attackers. I am almost ready to get the party on… No doubt its coming . But really what needs to happen is far beyond economical failure… is failure of the US corrupt govt… where they are so knee deep , if people cant see it now… good, they need to die from the virus. I expect the US govt to weaken and social unrest to occur when the masses learn there is basically no hospital or medical care and no food. ( we will get to that point about 18 mos ) I expect any cash reserves you hold to be worth 0 in about 24-36 mos. convert to real property or something tangible that is a necessity. There is no way our fragile economy can weather this… If they would have done it right( with the virus ) … and slowed , tested - we could have hedged a year or more keeping this just manageable. Maybe hoping on some solution or resolution. However , not what happened. US govt powers to be need to go away in entirety… I believe this will start the process as we are well in to the 4th turning… Almost all other countries will be safer and more stable over the next 5- 10 years. But the world economy is too pinned to the US … and oil is controlled by the US as well. But once the govt is gone. I would think oil will be an issue. I wish my family would have retained their rural PA land that had an active oil well with mineral rights… ( it wasn’t me who got rid of it … i would have killed to keep it.) Never the less, i am expecting some wars to start , a lot of people to die from not just this virus but all other causes and a lot due to violence. I am ready to kick some butt. ready for the show… I seemingly have no fear… but i do worry for my child… but wife and child are scared… I guess i can understand , most are not like me. i am the most empathetic person on the planet ( no joke ) but have zero problem killing the right people… ( probably because I because i want to protect you from the the bad people - again the empathy- protect the weakest from the strongest most corrupt )and am very capable of protecting myself. I just want the party to start… it would be a bit easier … without family. Personally , I think the govt should have fixed the problems years ago… I am more of a pull off the bandaid quickly… and get over the pain… than trying to avoid the inevitable. The US is sort of like a gambling addict… who can not cut their loses… just keep borrowing. Anyway this was not supposed to be a rant… Just a declaration of where I am and that I am ready for the show. Just I wish it would get on faster. I just know you cant push it faster.
I like him. Direct, well spoken and …well … he gets it.
He’s not pulling any punches and he seems to care about the human outcome vs. constantly trying to sound soothing to (presumably) help keep the economy going a little longer.
You’ve been here 7 weeks and you know how the old timers view the Fed? Once we revert back to PeakProsperity from PeakCoronavirus you’ll have a chance to learn how deep the old timers’ knowledge of and hatred for the Fed goes. When that day comes, a heartfelt apology will be in order. Until that glorious day, try this little morsel from ten years ago.
https://peakprosperity.com/straight-talk-with-g-edward-griffin-whats-coming-next-isnt-pretty-2/
ao, You asked, “How do you know it’s good for skin rejuvenation?”
One look at that youthful, boyish face tells you all you need to know! 
BS: Does he or doesn’t he? Only dtrammel knows for sure (and he’s not sayin’).
Cruz was told that the test would not work unless he showed symptoms, therefore they would not test him. But this is crazy…If you can be an asymptomatic spreader and the test will not work on you, then there is no way to contain this.
See the following quote from Cruz.
He (Cruz) added that he did not meet the CDC criteria for self-quarantine because testing was not effective before symptoms manifest.
“The medical authorities explicitly advised me that, given the above criteria, the people who have interacted with me in the 10 days since CPAC should not be concerned about potential transmission,” Cruz said.
He decided to self quarantine until 14 days elapsed since his exposure.