Quote from a radio interview, edited slightly by myself for clarity in English. I have no link, not yet online as a transcript.
‘REACTION OF DEPUTY ROMAN PRYMULA TO WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION. “I consider them useful. Masks protect one’s surroundings. If we all have one, surfaces will barely be contaminated at all as we are not emitting aerosols. If masks are only worn by those in whom the disease manifests, it will already be too late. The World Health Organization is issuing a number of measures that are more political than anything - for example, they have lowered the level 3 respirator parameters, because there are not enough of these aids globally, ”said Deputy Health Minister Roman Prymula in Radiožurnál. According to him, masks prevent the greatest danger, namely the community transmission of the virus.’
Austria is bringing in mandatory mask-wearing in supermarkets. I think we can expect that it won’t stop there. Bulgaria has also made it mandatory to wear masks in public now.
https://sofiaglobe.com/2020/03/30/covid-19-bulgaria-makes-wearing-a-protective-mask-in-public-places-compulsory/
Still have major issues here in Colorado. Can’t imagine what’s it’s like in other states. https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/coronavirus/cdphe-due-to-limited-number-of-current-tests-and-ppe-covid-19-testing-prioritized-in-tiers
Even if Scenario B, is how things will end up, how will we ever implement mass antibody testing, to figure out how much of the population was actually infected?
It think your observations are “abolsut richtig” (spot on)
I am German and live in the district (Landkreis) Garmisch-Partenkirchen in the state of Bavaria (capital: Munich / southern Germany).
Here some Numbers:
Englisch version of the daily situaiton report of the RKI (german CDC)
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-03-30-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
Pressconference by the RKI Tue 31st March 10:00
Facts from the Pressconference:
- coronavirus does harm not only the lungs but also the heart
- youngest person to die in Germany: 28 Years
- Average age (infected people): 47 years
- Men: Women: 52:48
- Average age ( deaths): 80 years
- Wear a mask: The head of the German CDC (Robert-Koch-Institut) said "Könnte eine Mundschutz-Pflicht aus wissenschaftlicher Sicht die Verbreitung eindämmen? Wie Wieler erklärt, könnte das Tragen dieser nützlich sein. „Auch ein selbstgebauter Mund und Nasen-Schutz hält Tröpfchen ab“, so der Präsident des RKI."
- I try to translate it: "Could,from a scientific point of view, an obligation to wear a mask help the containment? Wieler (head of the German CDC; Rober-Koch-Institut) asserts that wearing a mask could be useful. Even a homemade mask detains droplets." (source: https://www.merkur.de/welt/coronavirus-deutschland-rki-pflegeheim-wolfsburg-nrw-bayern-berlin-infizierte-faelle-tote-news-zahlen-robert-koch-institut-zr-13633416.html )
- In Austria (about 1 h -drive away) you have to wear a mask in supermarkets from wednesday on. Mask will be distributed by the supermarkets.
- East German town of Jena. (populaiton 110,000) You have to wear a mask shopping an using public transportation starting next week. ( https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/panorama/coronavirus-schutzmasken-jena-100.html )
Hi all - I believe it was here that I read an excellent post about from a doctor in an ED describing in great detail the clinical/laboratory results from Covid 19 patients. It was long and thorough. I read it over the weekend and regret not saving it.
I work in a hospital lab and wanted to share with my coworkers.
Also just wanted to share that last week I talked with my director about wearing a mask in the lab, she got angry and told me that when she get’s word from higher ups she will let me know.
Over the weekend we all started wearing masks and today even she is wearing one!
Karen
Although this graph may not seem encouraging because of the NY line, I feel it is.
Notice the Washington State trend (where I live). We’ve had the virus for months now and the curve is not steep. Why? It seems that herd immunity may be one cause.
Another unspoken and far too risky of a solution to this crisis is to have ‘chicken pox’ parties for adults who have strong immune systems. The more people that develop antibodies, the more the curve flattens. This method would not go over well. But the point is that immuno-healthy people might need to be out there on the front line working and providing services to others.
Full data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FXVgNrTbECcO8X4-hFXhJuqgE5sl-7ddU-IO2ciXCdU/edit#gid=1157182735
Hi Chris,
I spent 15 years working in virology as a scientist and in medical affairs for pharma and so I have been following the data from the start, and commend you for your excellent summaries. I am just wondering where you get the 0.4% from. Like the S. Koreans, the Germans have been testing everything that moves, which suggests there are few missed cases, which means, as you point out, that the denominator is likely to be very close to correct. If you take the crude death rate, deaths/total cases, which is a lagging number therefore low, you get nearly 1% using the worldometer data. If you use the closed case CFR it is 4% for Germany. I’ve been watching S. Korea and their overall death rate has been climbing, now 1.5%, meaning it could end up being nearer 2%.
Please clarify how you got the 0.4% number in your next video.
Many thanks.
Orson
https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3102444?fbclid=IwAR3s13SRnw7YNgtu-7LZyrMUSMIRRWScU67lwbuwZM8fna-6R8k4tqrtO3w
Is this the one you’re looking for?
Hi folks,
One thing that has been bugging me about all the CFR comparisons with the flu is that when people bring up the denominator problem they seem to assume that it only exists for COVID-19 estimates, not for the flu numbers. However, the estimates of a CFR of approximately 0.1% for the flu are based on dividing the estimated number of deaths by the estimated number of symptomatic cases, not the total number of cases in the population (you can check yourself using the numbers listed on the CDC website). People are complaining that the estimates for COVID-19 are underestimating the denominator because there are asymptomatic patients in the population that we don’t know about, but the same is true for the flu estimates. This means that when comparing the lethality of COVID-19 vs seasonal influenza, we are likely underestimating how much worse COVID-19 is than the flu.
Furthermore, it must be understood that the numbers used to determine the influenza burden of disease are based on prevalence estimates using mathematical modelling and limited testing. They are not testing everyone for the flu every season. Only patients who are sick enough to seek medical attention are tested, and most of those are sent home without a test. It’s mostly people who are sick enough to be hospitalized who are tested, though there likely is some sort of baseline testing in less symptomatic patients that goes on to try to improve the estimates of the true number of cases. Therefore, a denominator problem exists for the seasonal influenza estimated CFR too, further complicating comparisons with COVID-19.
Thanks very much for your work. You’ve helped my family be prepared for this pandemic and stay one or two steps ahead of everyone else around us.
Hi Chris and Adam,
First of all, a huge thanks for these regular updates. We’ve been following them since you started in late January. We bought some masks on 28th January (as well as taking a few other precautionary steps), so have been well prepared since then.
I have been so disappointed and angered by our UK government’s lack of action all the way through February that I wrote a post yesterday about mask-wearing, and our experiences here in supermarkets in the UK… not encouraging.
You can see “Masking the truth” here:
https://www.ianusher.com/freedom-lifestyle/masking-the-truth/
As I was writing it i was sent a link to an article saying that Austria is now making mask-wearing in stores compulsory. Maybe we’re winning hearts and minds slowly.
Thanks and best wishes
Ian and Vanessa (Cornwall, UK)
Austria - face masks becoming compulsory:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-austria/austria-to-make-basic-face-masks-compulsory-in-supermarkets-idUSKBN21H16A
The claim that the German CFR is lower because of their higher testing rate does not seem to be correct if you happen to trust some of the reported comparison data on global testing rates, for instance the data published here: https://www.healthpolicy-watch.org/covid-19-testing-trends-globally-regionally/
and here: https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1244644733571477504
It’s true that based on this published data, Germany does seem to have been doing more testing per capita than most other nations such as the U.S… However, compared with the testing of the European epicenter countries Italy and Spain, the per capita testing is actually lower. Also, Switzerland, which has a current CFR of 2.4% (based on data published on BNO News: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/) has done testing equivalent to between 2 and 3 times the per capita rate of Germany.
I don’t know the reason why Germany’s reported CFR numbers are much lower than most other nations but based on the reported testing comparison data, greater testing rate does not seem to be a plausible explanation. Perhaps it is a case of the healthcare system in Germany not yet having reached the stage of the epidemic where their healthcare system has been overloaded.
Want the long and short of this…be an extension arm of the government by handing out YOUR MONEY to the system with the hopes that you can fill out enough of their bullshit paper trail to get your money back.
That’s what a good communist would do.
A reminder to Chris that IHU Méditerranée Infection Marseille where Dr Raoult works has treated 1283 infected patients with hydrochloroquine + azithromycine regretting 1 death (an 84 year old man) receiving treatment for at least 3 days.
https://twitter.com/raoult_didier/status/1244935362054688768
President Macron presented the situation in France to justify a lockdown as a war - using the term 5 as in FIVE times guerre. He was right - this is a war over protocol, money, influence - but not the interests of the people - at least from the government’s side. My wife has been sewing masks, as is my Mother-in-law.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.22.20040758v1
That’s not even real food. Give it a bit of thought.
The amount of energy wasted to create that other “frankenfood” is incredible.
That goes for all you almond milk drinkers as well.
I don’t know for sure, but I’m guessing that getting Americans to wear masks is going to be about as easy as getting them to stop eating meat.
We can be a stubborn lot and we are very experienced at ignoring evidence that challenges our preferred world view.
My wife and I are wearing masks and gloves. People we see out are social distancing fairly well, but few gloves and no masks.
For a healthier vegan version, leave the meat out and add tons of mushrooms.
I love mushrooms. I’m thinking about growing them this year, or just harvesting wild ones. They grow everywhere in Central Wisconsin.
I’m not a virologist or epidemiologist, hell, I’m not even that bright. However, my mind does seem to be able to grasp large amounts of information and make sense of it. Early on (January) this had my attention and with in a week or two I was convinced we would be exactly where we are now and where we are heading. My understanding of the RO and CFR are similar to yours (Orsonw and grandours ).
We have unanswered questions and are filling in the wrong blanks with the wrong info and drawing faulty conclusions. Even if Germany is testing so many people, which I find hard to believe, how many of those people test negative but haven’t had it yet, and therefore, are still susceptible to covid? When calculating CFR, why would you use total confirmed cases as the denominator? We are trying to “flatten the curve” with the idea that we can achieve herd immunity…why? I understand we are trying to lessen the burden on hospitals, but is herd immunity possible or are we hanging hope on something we can’t prove yet?
As I see it, we are just getting started with this with no real idea of how it resolves, both the covid and the rest of the collapsing house of cards. Personally I believe it will get much worse and agree with Chris that there is no going back to what was. Our lives and the way we live them will not ever be the same. There are so many people thinking all we have to do is wait this out then hit the reset button and resume normal life. I fear what will be as people adjust to this situation they don’t understand and can’t control.
Be well everyone. Please take care.
Agreed. Biology dictates that humans are not vegetarian by nature, only by choice. For me the choice is easy. Meat is delicious. Throw me some Italian sausage in that pasta.