I have some experience in manufacturing. I can tell you the machine in the video making masks looks custom purpose built. It may be covered by patents held by the mask company to create a legal monopoly for the mass production of the product. Many years ago I worked in a factory that re-soled pro tennis shoes, and most of the machines that semi-automated the process were covered by patents by the factory owner that he refused to license to others. That monopoly made him very rich while he paid us factory plebs minimum wage or less. That’s capitalism for you. We should learn how to make our own cloth masks and apply the brine disinfection approach. Is that not the resilient and practical practice?
Thus, that Washington State virologist, Trevor Bedford, is giving this illness a rough factor of 32 for each known case of Coronavirus. Eighteen proven cases is representative about 600 infections total. That is pretty helpful information and also tells us that the virus has implanted itself firmly in the community and likely cannot be contained anymore by tracking sources since at this stage its growth in the community will be close to explosive. He is suggesting containment. The State has already declared an emergency and now we await directives from the Health Department as to what happens next. This was good to see by the way since my own thinking was a factor or 50 was reasonable but I was obviously a little too generous with my math.
DanielleW, here’s the link to The Day After movie: https://youtu.be/Iyy9n8r16hs
It was released in 1983. There’s also a 3-hour “workprint” version (here) that contains some of the scenes that were considered too graphic for the public at the time, while there are gaps where other scenes apparently need to be inserted.
There’s another disaster movie that’s very good with a similar name, The Day After Tomorrow with Dennis Quaid, released in 2004, about climate change/mini-Ice Age. Here’s the link: https://youtu.be/zUYBbkckWI8
BillL, I think you missed the point. There was only two workers in that factory video. Almost everything was being done by machinery. So it is not a labour issue that stops factory production in the US anymore. At one time it was though and such lines needed hundreds of people folding, packing, sorting etcetera but times and robotics have changed all that. There is not the same economic reasons for offshoring some types of work anymore.
Hi All,
So I started preparing on Chris’ advice early on to have a sick room to isolate a sick family member while they get better. But as this has gone on I am seriously questioning if it would even work. The way I see it, with the long, presumably contagious, incubation period, if one of two adults or three kids gets infected, we’ll all be infected before we show symptoms and know it. Thoughts?
Wow, this is significant. Thanks km64 for the information and link (reposted here and here). This is the first report I’ve heard of a major retailer limiting purchases of cold and flu product in the US. Up to now, I’ve only seen/read about restrictions on the number of face masks, respirators and sanitizing products.
Given the coronavirus pandemic and flu season spread (just recently gaining speed), availability for cold and flu products will be sparse due to increased demand. Other retailers (e.g., CVS, Target, Walmart, Walgreens) will likely follow with their own restrictions. The greater concern may be the inability to resupply those stocks for months thereafter due to supply-chain disruptions. Many of those products and/or their ingredients are sourced from China or other Asian countries hit hard by this pandemic. This will leave many people vulnerable, especially during the more virulent second or subsequent waves of the pandemic.
My impression is that cold and flu products have been readily available in most stores and pharmacies in my Central Valley, CA region. That may change, depending on locale and number of suspected/confirmed infected. Note that the general public is competing with the military and health care systems who are also scrambling to get product as their wholesale suppliers run short.
This supply restriction is actually coming at least a month sooner than I expected. Like many people, now I’m reassessing whether I have enough of natural and OTC cold flu fighters. (In addition to my fish/bird antibiotics and books for reference.) :-/
Not all of the cases are long incubation so it couldn’t hurt to have the stuff to isolate on hand. I can’t remember the stats, but a meaningful portion get sick pretty quickly (in a matter of days).
India Drug Restrictions Noti 50_0 --pdf of India drugs now restricted for shipment
This just came through on a professional site I subscribe to–it seems like substantial news–to have India announcing this before anyone else has.
There is a link in here to a list of the drugs. I am going through it now to add some notes about the drugs and their uses and will update shortly with that. It looks like the list comprises mostly antivirals, antibiotics, antifungals, etc, as well as B vitamins.
https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/coronavirus-spurs-india-to-restrict-exports-two-dozen-drugs?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWmpFM09UQmpaRGxoTldaaSIsInQiOiJiYXFEbmZJZUJxb01OdVZFMGhTeWhPeDZIK0ZTSVdHRVFkSCtPQ3ZiV2RuRERqd3dCZVhmaVwvdHFsbUVvWURwcE1XUGpQTjZQVDJFQTlwYVpoWWtzVllqXC9xM2hZK3RNV2dMMjdBNnJjQTBvN0pzb3NXQ0F2SWw0WExydjV5Y29FIn0%3D&mrkid=627663
Wow,
I really hadn’t thought about this rather significant impact in the 60 to 80+ population. If that would play out by the current numbers here in the usa that would have an impact on especially the unfunded Social Security liabilities, it could reduce the unfunded liabilities going forward by around 0.5 to .75 Trillion a year especially once the larger, but population reduced 60-69 cohort comes into full Social Security retirement.
A morbid thought. but something I had yet to ponder.
If the test for covid 19 is negative test taker pays for the test, if it is positive you pay for the quarantine. The government of the U.S. loves to cut it’s own neck!Hope this one is not true?
Hi CJRinMN, I agree that people within the household could be asymptomatic, spreading the virus and therefore minimizing or negating the value of a separate space for isolation/quarantine. However, there might be some use in having an isolation room to keep the recovered separate from the sick as getting re-infected might be even more severe. The timing on this would be tricky, especially as there are still so many unknowns about this virus and its severity regarding shedding and infectivity.
There may also be family members or others you care about that may not have been in your initial isolation group. Letting any new people into your group should be weighed heavily against the risks, of course. In such cases, it might be useful to have an self-contained room in/out side of your immediate family spaces to isolate any newcomers. If so, I would isolate them for at least 30 days, possibly up to 45 days and take all necessary precautions.
Good question–thanks!
Yes, it might well reduce our US SS deficit by a bit, but these deaths are not cheap. Until we fill all the hospital beds with the elderly severe cases and are forced to let people die quickly, the system will run up huge medicare expenses to fight this loosing battle. It could offset the SS gains.
I did notice that already WA was NOT taking obviously very sick nursing home patients to hospitals. So are we already rationing medical care in the US by avoiding testing until the case is too severe to bother? We’ll just leave them in the nursing home, like people were left on the plague Princess.
For those of us over 60 or with elders to worry about, this isn’t a pleasant thought.
I’d add if Covid reduces the number of chronically sick there would be more long-term savings. Unfortunately, again the cost of the hospitalization could offset several years of gain.
- As viral load is a factor in recovering well, any way you make sure members of the same household don't reinfect each other would be good I'm guessing. Some horror stories out of China of all 4 members of a household (in a small apartment) getting ill and dying during lockdown.
- Separating and using masks/PPE/infection control gives you the best chance if hospital is out of the question.
I believe the near-term costs related to covid19 will far surpass any savings there’d be related to culling of the elderly population.
I found this page a few days ago and am planning on doing the DIY “gas mask” as an alternative to the cloth masks.
That being said, I also plan on doing my shopping in the middle of the night too…if the virus gets close to us here (I live in the Midwest).
Any thoughts on this link would be appreciated… perhaps the info included in the article could be a help to all of us trying to be smart about this whole mess…
The video describing how to make your own gas mask is about half way down the article… (I couldn’t figure out how to post just the individual video so that’s why I have the link to the whole article…)
https://www.primalsurvivor.net/diy-activated-charcoal/
FIRST THINGS FIRST: I AM NOT A DOCTOR, CHANGING INSULIN THERAPY CAN BE DANGEROUS AND SHOULD BE PERFORMED WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF A MEDICAL PROVIDER. ALSO IF YOU MAKE A SWITCH IN INSULIN THERAPY YOU NEED TO TEST YOUR BLOOD GLUCOSE MORE OFTEN UNTIL YOU ARE DIALED IN ON THE NEW INSULIN THERAPY.
I thought that I would share this Insulin Dependent Prep with everyone. I know that most of us are on the fancier/newer/ungodly expensive without insurance insulins and sometimes insulin pumps. For those of you that are old school or know old school insulin users; the Regular, NPH, and 70/30 sold by Walmart under the ReliOn brand is made by Novo Nordisk and is just rebranded Novolin line insulins for Walmart. These insulins are widely available without a prescription, but some US states vary. They are sold in 10 mL vials for around 25 dollars and also sell syringes for a little over 10 dollars for 100 syringes. They are also introducing them in pen form but they are not everywhere yet.
Now every US state is a bit different on what, when and how much of these insulins and syringes can be purchased. You’ll need to check with your state for the particulars. I found out the hard way on vacation that Florida sells syringes without a prescription, but not in Broward County.
I always have a 6 months worth prep supply that I rotate and I give supplies that are within 3 months of going off expiration to pet owners whose pets need the insulin. That way it doesn’t go unused.
So between my normal insulin routine supplies and my deep prep insulin routine supplies, I have a years worth of diabetes meds so I can weather a significant interruption and also put things right if I need to right off into the sunset due to some unforeseen craziness.
I hope this helps someone out.
D
Berensma, thank you for this very important, well-sourced information. I’m reposting the links below with an article excerpt in case others missed them.
About the list of 26 restricted APIs and formularies (link below), you said, “It looks like the list comprises mostly antivirals, antibiotics, antifungals, etc, as well as B vitamins.” That encompasses a lot of medicines and supplements! Thank you also for augmenting that list with comments regarding the drugs and their use. I look forward to your posting that updated list when ready. I’m sure Chris and others within the PP community will find it enlightening and useful.
Coronavirus spurs India to restrict exports of 2 dozen drugs
"The country, which accounts for about 40% of U.S. generic drugs, has halted exports of more than two dozen APIs and drugs…[API/formularies] range from paracetamol––the ingredient in Tylenol––to antivirals like acyclovir for treating shingles and antibiotic neomycin. "
"…Dinesh Dua, chairman of the Pharmaceuticals Export Promotion Council of India, told Reuters, “Irrespective of the ban, some of these molecules may face shortages for the next couple of months.” If interruptions from the virus get worse, he said, some shortages may become “acute.”
“India gets nearly 70% of its ingredients and drugs from China and then manufactures many of them for export to the rest of the world. A serious interruption in its supply lines could track directly to the U.S., creating shortages or forcing up prices.”
https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/coronavirus-spurs-india-to-restrict-exports-two-dozen-drugs
Global supplier India curbs drug exports as coronavirus fears grow (Reuters link here )
Drugmakers tell analyst ingredient prices are rising as FDA reports first supply hit tied to COVID-19
https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/fda-reports-first-covid-19-tied-drug-shortage-but-producers-tell-bernstein-more-to-be
Notice/List of Restricted API, Formularies: https://dgft.gov.in/sites/default/files/Noti%2050_0.pdf
One of the news articles I posted above indicated the state of Indiana has 900 testing kits available. I’d imagine every state is getting a shipment now of some quantity of testing kits. I’d assume that as more kits are produced states will receive additional. Elsewhere I saw that the military are getting testing kits for our bases, domestic and overseas.
Given that everyone cannot be tested, how would YOU decide who to test?
That is the question state health departments are facing.
I would say the priority would be
- any first responder/health care worker who might have had contact with a confirmed case
- suspected cases based on current disease profile
- then other contacts the suspected subject had.
Just something to keep in mind when ranting about insufficient testing at the moment.
As if we don’t have enough to worry about…
https://kdvr.com/news/local/if-i-do-get-coronavirus-im-attending-every-maga-rally-i-can-denver-councilwoman-quotes-solidarity-to-tweet/
https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/culture/gabriel-hays/2020/02/28/insane-podcast-host-tweets-about-spreading-coronavirus-trump
MiguelitoDeSilva,
Thank you for posting this link. I read it last night and was about to post the link for Chris’ input.
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/bill-sardi/trump-halts-cdc-fearmongering-but-why-are-antibiotics-not-anti-virals-quelling-the-covid-19-coronavirus-is-it-really-a-virus/
Chris and Adam, Thank you for all your work. I have watched every video Chris has put out on the coronavirus; I really appreciate all the information.
HJ