Chris, I am writing from Italy and have been a long time “lurker” here.
I wish to thank you for all the valuable information you have provided to everyone in these years and in this particular situation.
I want to share the Italian situation, where I see some positive signs of action:
if you suspect you have the virus, you need to call a specific number (which has been well publicized) and a team will take the test directly at your home
the test is free
alternatively, in front of many hospitals, tents have been erected where it is possible to take the test
in the case of a patient with mild symptoms, quarantine is arranged at home
the most serious cases are treated in dedicated structures (hospitals, barracks)
Live with the virus and do not fight it with masks and chemicals. Strengthen your immune system with vitamine D and C. We are part of a big ecosystem.
Already the virus is getting weaker. It was lab created but unnatural and it is mutating back to an innocent bat virus.
Shame on those who created it. That should be the topic.
Based on S.Korea’s statistics it is reasonably safe to assume that the unknown factor is greater than 2. When we apply this to WW counts using the D/(D+R) formula, this would lead to a CFR less than 3% (~6%/2 = 3%).
As PP indicated in their excellent video’s, apart from the inherent CFR, an aggravating issue might be the % of severe cases swamping the health care system.
I’m not an expert, but to me all the different data seems to suggest that:
The honey badger virus is the right name: unless rigorous precautions are taken, it will escape and it will infect, but,
apart from the quality of health care system, there must be other factors influencing the severity considering the huge differences between countries (e.g., Italy, Iran versus S.Korea).
Related to the above: I suspect that where I live, The Netherlands, Southern part, a lot of people are infected, but have mild symptoms. Why? I observed that in the companies I work for, an atypical amount of people had severe flu symptoms the last two months. The spread of this flu was amazing. Workers reported in sick, came to work after a few days and a couple of days later their coworkers reported in sick. If I'm right, this is actually good news because this means that the virus is less lethal (still not the flu!), and it suggests that other less invasive mitigation approaches could be considered (for example, ensure most people will be able to fight the virus themselves by population-wide vitamin A, C, D3 supplementation, increasing selenium and zinc levels, advice and distribute recovery enhancing products (elderberry, NAC etc), and by trying to build a sanitary cordon around the people with higher probability of complications like older people and people with severe health issues). This weekend the Dutch CDC (RIVM) will take random samples in the Southern part of the Netherlands, so that either falsifies or proofs my suspicion.
Btw, the actions described in the third list item I gathered from the videos and amazing posts here.
Keep up the good work and take care!
I agree totally. They should give these poor elder people vitamine D and C. And fat fish with omega 3.
The food in institutes, including hospitals is terrible. I refused to eat it, instead my family brought me fresh fish. Within 5 days i could leave the hospital although they carved my belly open.
The discussion in the US should be why everybody is obese. Why autisme is on the rise. Why autoimmune diseases are rampant. Why so many are using drugs. Why 10000 people working on bio weapons. Why all over the world there are bio laboratories. Why the financial repression is going on. Why the medical doctors are pushing pharmaceuticals. Why food in the Walmart and so on is corn based, a known poison. Why they eat sick animals.
And then they wonder why they have no resistance.
Egypt says cruise ship quarantined over new virus cluster
“A cruise ship on Egypt’s Nile River with over 150 tourists and local crew was in quarantine Saturday in the southern city of Luxor, after 12 people tested positive for the new coronavirus.” https://apnews.com/6903f73a46a0eda9fb550de039826cc3
I decided to put all the values for various countries onto charts and saw it was all exponential. What I also so was that the outbreak outside China truly began on Feb 21, so it’s only been 2 and a half weeks since this became serious.
I hope they are useful.
I think we just hit terminal velocity in Iran. Lord help them. This is truly unprecedented if its true but the article Sparky just linked above is saying that as of this morning (Saturday March 7th) there are 16,000 people in Iranian hospitals with Cornavirus. Holy crow, it is a modern day biblical disaster. I thought at first that the number was possibly an error in reporting but the same story is also being reported in the Washington Post. Is that even likely so soon?
"In Iran, which has the vast majority of cases in the Mideast, the Health Ministry said Saturday that 21 more people had died from the virus, bringing the death toll to 145. More than 1,000 infections were also confirmed overnight totaling some 5,823 cases nationwide.
The ministry’s spokesman Kianoush Jahanpour said 16,000 cases are hospitalized across the country, with some still being tested or monitored to see if they had contracted the virus. The capital of Tehran alone has the most infections, with more than 1,500 cases, followed by the Shiite holy city of Qom with 668 and the northern Mazandaran province with 606 cases.
Good morning LT,
That is the way on blogs like this - hardly any new member has the time or inclination to fully research the thread - so the long term posters are frustrated by the newbies coming on. So thank you for your kindness and patience which I read into the reply you gave me.
I look forward to your tutorial on UV sanitizers - I have noted that pool and water feature sanitizers are UV driven and spare bulbs are easily obtainable. I have a new bulb in my device and spare filters and bulbs.
However I’m going down the path of a daily spray with silane quats.
My friend, we stand on the brink - soon we will know the outcome for the world - are there meds which can cure, or will the virus mutate again and with the ding dongs running the world’s health departments, will human population be halved.
[Sparky1 summary, comment: Those inmates screened and that present with symptoms will be diverted to area hospitals and quarantined. Covid-2019 test kits are not yet available for the incarcerated or for jail/prison personnel. Overcrowding, and poor hygiene and medical care will likely cause coronavirus spread among the more than 2 million US incarcerated, and among those professionals and families that interact with them. This could get very bad, very quickly. The virus is probably already spreading among the incarcerated and those with whom they interact. With no test kits and therefore no testing, it is no surprise that are “no reports” of cases within jails/prisons–until cluster, cluster, boom, BOOM! Are the health/medical care and jail/prison systems ready for this?? Will the US just "temporarily"release these inmates like Iran? This is a pandemic time bomb just waiting to explode.] US prisons, jails on alert for spread of coronavirus [edit: bold added]
“The nation’s jails and prisons are on high alert, stepping up inmate screenings, sanitizing jail cells and urging lawyers to scale back in-person visits to prevent the new coronavirus from spreading through their vast inmate populations.”
“There have been no reports of COVID-19 inside U.S. jails or prisons. But more people are incarcerated per capita here than in any other country in the world and prisons have become hot spots in other nations touched by the outbreak.”
“Coronavirus suddenly exploded in China’s prisons last week, with reports of more than 500 cases spreading across five facilities in three provinces. Earlier this week in Iran, 54,000 inmates were temporarily released back into the country amid virus fears.”
“…New detainees go through a medical screening and are segregated for at least 10 to 14 days while they wait for the results of any medical tests, said James Garrow, a spokesman for the Philadelphia Department of Public Health.”
“The screening has since been updated to include COVID-19, not only in Philadelphia, but also in Dallas, Houston, Miami, Chicago and other cities. No prisons have yet obtained the medical kits to test for the virus, however.” https://apnews.com/af98b0a38aaabedbcb059092db356697
MadBear, Your charts really hit home re: the exponential spread of this virus worldwide. Very sobering and scary. I appreciate you pulling them together, as I’m sure others do as well.
Welcome to the PP tribe!
Background: I’m an old school prepper with a deep pantry and numerous water/light/cooking systems, but I had no masks or medical type gear for this situation. Therefore, when the call went out in late January, I simply went to Home Depot & Lowes and purchased a ton of masks.
Question: How many per person do I really need? 10, rotating through seems to be a minimum. Perhaps 15 per person to be safe?
If my local hospital/police/EMS/etc. run out, I’d like to know how much of my supply I can afford to donate.
Nairobi, I know–that is absolutely mind-blowing! That’s 16,000 hospitalized with Covid-2019! This is going to decimate Iran’s health care systems, and paralyze their country if it hasn’t already done so. Very sad and scary.
Once this conrona-beast takes hold, I’m afraid there’s not much keeping this from ravaging other middle east countries, India, Africa or South America–or so-called “developed” but extraordinarily backwards countries such as the US as far as mitigating this pandemic. A month from now I think the world will be shocked at the catastrophic impact of this virus. Even then, I don’t think we’ll have reached the worldwide peak in the (first wave??) coronavirus pandemic. Truly terrifying and hard to comprehend.
Sparky, it is indeed alarming. At this rate Iran will surpass China’s numbers in a few weeks (if its true) But something tells me it might be a misprint. We will know better tomorrow. The sleuths here will get to the bottom of this in no time flat.
Wow…maybe I will go buy some elderberry after all. Anything might help. Sheesh!
Obviously a test kit should be used to catch the mild cases before they go severe. But it’s looking like we can’t possibly scale that up fast enough.
Remember that the Chinese updated the numbers at some point by clinical diagnosis via CT scan. While that only works on the severe/critical cases; if you’re in hospital (or at home) getting worse and a test kit will take a while; a CT scan might yield results quicker.
Beats waiting for a test kit while you slip from severe into a critical coma. If it’s not the flu or a cold, and not normal pneumonia, chances are very high it’s Covid.
Just occurred to me to overlay a bandanna over any protective mask to conceal the mask and appear less protected than others. Calls less attention to you as prepper. I know close up the bands may show, so be it. You should be at distance anyway. Be the gray man or woman.
I know that the 201 event has been at the epicenter of theorizing about malicious intent in starting the virus on part of the government. However, that is in no way what I am alluding to here.
In the Tapes you can clearly see the rationale behind discouraging face masks and other retarding measures taken by key decision makers. It is also clear from their discussions that they are prioritizing economic stability and continuity of government over preventing loss of life.
Head of CDC, china CDC, John Hopkins, Johnson and Johnson. I have them on video dead to rights, writing off 68 million people as acceptable losses. Please reconsider.
Sometimes you don't have a good choice to make. Is it criminal that those kind of people choose economic considerations over lives, not criminal but sad. Then we can't get people to approve a gas tax here to fix crumbling bridges and roads, even though gasoline prices are dirt cheap and those are problems everyone can see.
You have to keep the economy running or those 68 million die from starvation and lack of heat. We as a civilization don't do well preparing for events like this, that have a low chance of happening. So when they do, we get a bigger bill than if we had.
I'm just a commentator like you are, you can PM Chris and send him the info yourself anytime. He's awful busy and his inbox is slammed though.
