My family and I here in Mongolia have been largely staying indoors since we got back on Wednesday. Other than a couple of shopping trips we’ve stayed indoors the whole time, and I’ve been doing those grocery shopping trips solo. When going out I’ve been carrying and using hand sanitizer on a regular basis, carrying antibacterial wipes (for shopping carts and other things), and wearing an N95 mask (that I brought from the US… I’ve been told you can’t find any around here anymore). One thing I’ve realized is my longtime habit of using cash could be a higher risk than using a debit card. Applying some hand sanitizer after using a debit card point-of-sale terminal is probably a safer alternative than handling cash that any number of people could have handled prior to me. At this point I don’t think the risk around here of contracting nCoV is high. BUT… I think these precautions are good habits to lock in now before it eventually spreads to Mongolia.
Staying inside is workable but not without challenges. The good thing is we’ve got Netflix and cable TV, a s***-load of movies and e-books on digital storage, a bunch of home projects to work on such as my 3D printer and webcomics and crypto-trading, and our son got a new Playstation 4 for Xmas that (along with some board games and such) helps keep him and his little sister from going absolutely bug-house. Even so, it’s getting increasingly hard when my daughter asks to play outside to tell her that it’s just not a good idea. How do you explain the situation to a 5-year-old? You can’t… you just try to be patient and try to come up with new things for her to do. At least our kids have their cousins to play with (they live in the same complex and are being kept indoors too). When things warm up a bit next week their grandparents plan on taking them to their country house. At least there they’ll get to play outside without exposure risk from others. Again, at this point in this place I think our exposure risk is still very low, but if there’s even a 25% chance of this coming here I think adapting our behavior is worth it. Even wearing that N95 mask. I f***ing HATE wearing that mask…
When trying to assess and prioritize threats there is a simple but highly effective way of categorizing RISK and then understanding CONTROL .
THREAT LEVEL= (Frequency x Severity x Detection)
For the common flu the Frequency is the R0 which is low (1.28), the Severity is low as less than 1% need hospitalization and Detection would be a low number (meaning high detectability) as people aren’t infections until they show symptoms for the most part. The resultant THREAT LEVEL is relatively low.
For the Corona - Virus the Ro is high (4), the severity is high (20% need hospitalization) and detectability is poor resulting in a high number (as infectious people are asymptomatic and cured people can be re-infected). The THREAT LEVEL in this case is exceptionally high and as none of the three factors can be reduced through proactive measures (no vaccine, or easy detection capability) …other than by reducing FREQUENCY through ISOLATION of ALL CITIZENS…by definition, other than through use of ISOLATION this is out of control.
Practically speaking, all governments will need to put in place draconian stay in place requiremnets to buy time for people to come up with proactive efforts to reduce any of the three factors (Frequency, Severity , Detectibility).
Prepare to stay in your homes and to suffer the consequences of the virus , most likely without the assistance of the medical community as it will be overwhelmed given how high the RISK LEVEL is.
Not a chance Tim, it’s best/easiest way for the controllers to manipulate the sheep.
In the mean time, humungous profits are the only side affect they’re concerned with. You know how the big corps love huge profits regardless how many people are left broken in their wake.
No worries though, some collateral damage (never them) is to be expected.
thanks Dave. Here is link again https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191
So, a healthy 35 year old male, week one, looks like typical cold/flu, second week pneumonia and needs hospital care – my summary. If many cases are like this, all at once, we will overwhelm the hospitals.
Patient was a healthy 35 year old, non-smoker, male. After the blood level oxygen monitoring showed that being low is when he was started on more intensive treatment ( see SandPuppy recommendation of buying a fingertip monitor for home use, as then you would have a real physical indication of being bad enough to want to risk a hospital ). They confirmed with x-rays. They treated for pneumonia with antibiotics and extra oxygen thru a nose tube. Sounds like an IV drop of fluids which also admistered the antibiotics. They soon discontinued the antibiotics and changed to an " investigative" antiviral. This was Illness day 9 ( hospital day 5), when he had a change of respiratory status, ie., the low O2 levels and likely breathing trouble. So, sounds like his first week was totally unremarkable, second week was realy very sick. Taken off O2 and medicines on illness day 12.
On day 6, the patient was started on supplemental oxygen, delivered by nasal cannula at 2 liters per minute. Given the changing clinical presentation and concern about hospital-acquired pneumonia, treatment with vancomycin (a 1750-mg loading dose followed by 1 g administered intravenously every 8 hours) and cefepime (administered intravenously every 8 hours) was initiated.clinicians pursued compassionate use of an investigational antiviral therapy. Treatment with intravenous remdesivir (a novel nucleotide analogue prodrug in development10,11) was initiated on the evening of day 7, and no adverse events were observed in association with the infusion. Vancomycin was discontinued on the evening of day 7, and cefepime was discontinued on the following day, after serial negative procalcitonin levels and negative nasal PCR testing for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus.
On hospital day 8 (illness day 12), the patient’s clinical condition improved. Supplemental oxygen was discontinued, and his oxygen saturation values improved to 94 to 96% while he was breathing ambient air. The previous bilateral lower-lobe rales were no longer present. His appetite improved, and he was asymptomatic aside from intermittent dry cough and rhinorrhea. As of January 30, 2020, the patient remains hospitalized. He is afebrile, and all symptoms have resolved with the exception of his cough, which is decreasing in severity.
Any chance that there is two version of the same virus? Any chance that there may be 2 virus inside of one big virus? There is a chance that it may be true? With out a lot more proof I put at about 5 % chance.
I have to fly from SFO where there is a Santa Clara infected to DEN next week. I can’t get out of it. How do I protect myself? Can I protect myself?
https://twitter.com/flightradar24 has been tweeting about flights out of Wuhan sent by different governments to evacuate citizens.
Wear a mask the entire time, wash your hands thoroughly and often, use alcohol hand sanitizer on your hands and also face, as close to your eyes as possible but not in them; take Vitamin C 1000 mg every few hours (boosts immune system, you’ll need more if you get sick, the immune response burns LOTS of Vitamin C), obviously avoid other sick people especially in the terminals. Drink lots of water (fill a personal water bottle after you go through security, don’t drink plane water, it’s notoriously filthy) so you don’t get dehydrated. If someone on the flight seems sick, quietly ask flight attendants if they can be sequestered or otherwise (maybe they shouldn’t be allowed on board?) Tough call, that one. Take a long hot shower as soon as possible after disembarking; wash face and hands immediately after getting off the plane; don’t touch any surfaces in the terminal (use paper towel in bathrooms to touch things). Presume everything is poisonous or too hot to touch to make a ‘game’ out of it.
According to published research (see link below) - this likely makes Asian men literally 5 times more susceptible to this kind of virus - especially in the lungs. Wow! Now that explains a lot-
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full
God bless,
-Andy.
Presume that ALL hospitals will be overwhelmed. Hospital personnel are not saints nor are they immune to infection. They are NOT going to be an option for the vast majority of people and are a germfest for everyone who walks into one, even on a good day. As far as preps, obviously wear a mask at work; I suspect given large amounts of Asian clientele, that may very well close soon anyways. Food/supplies: no need to order special electrolyte fluids; you need to replenish sodium, potassium, magnesium and calcium; buy OTC pills for the last three, cheap. Slightly salt your drinking water for the rest. Buy easy to prepare, no cook food, the kind you could prepare for yourself if you were almost too sick to get out of bed. You won’t have much of an appetite if you’re sick anyways. I’m convinced that most Americans are near-scurvy in their Vitamin C levels (unless you’re a real lover of spicy foods or broccoli) and Vit C not only provides immune support, it is burned up fast in an infectious scenario. 1 gram (1000 mg) every 1-2 hours if you start feeling sick, at least supplement 1 gram a day as a normal daily dose; some advice says ‘to bowel tolerance’ which means too much causes diarrhea; this is a mere flush of the system and not a disease state to worry about. Some hospitals are using high dose IV C plus B vitamins to combat sepsis (blood poisoning) with great success, others apparently haven’t heard of it yet. If worse gets to worser, quarantine yourself; for now, shop early morning or late at night when grocery stores are less crowded; use self checkout, assume staff are infectious/contaminated. Don’t touch the cart until you wipe it down with sanitizer. Don’t go anywhere crowded, starting now; good advice in any flu season. As an introvert, I’ll never understand people going to the Superbowl with all the threats that entails; someone should do a study on sicknesses arising from participants 1-2 weeks later…
Someone correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t think people in the States can just go out and buy an oxygen tank. For one thing they’re dangerous fire-wise and two, if you’re sick enough to need one, you’re too sick to monitor the use of it.
This sounds like a HUGE difference, why haven’t I heard this anywhere before? 500% difference? Does it follow that Asian males are 500% more likely to become infected, given the same exposure level?: We also noticed that the only Asian donor (male) has a much higher ACE2-expressing cell ratio than white and African American donors (2.50% vs. 0.47% of all cells). This might explain the observation that the new Coronavirus pandemic and previous SARS-Cov pandemic are concentrated in the Asian area.
Very sad for East Asia and explains a lot.
The sick snd elderly use portable oxygen all the time. My father who died from COPD used an in home and also a portable oxygen unit. They can be rented and purchased on-line. Experienced divers will also be able to figure out how to rig up an at-home oxygen system.
Just a thought.
I finally convinced my wife to review this situation, calmly and logically. I reiterated that hopefully this is not something to “Panic” about but preparing would be prudent. (Pray for Best; Prepare for Worst.) I explained how Complications, Rnaught & Asymptomatic Incubation Period make this a spectacular case. Add on top of that: planes have been flying in and out of China’s airport since December 31 (First discovered case). We have to accept the reality that it’s already in the US (WAY more than 7 cases)
So, we made 2 lists: One for no power and one for power. Either way we have to assume life is going to change (at least for next 2 months if not longer). Our everyday habits specifically. If it got really bad, I’d have to assume government workers who are responsible for our drinking water sanitation may not be able to operate the facility. Linamar, the HUGE coal plant in Arden, NC that basically supplies electricity for Asheville, Mills River, Arden, Hendersonville etc. will at least be operating at less efficiency. In that case we’d have to be prepared for self sufficiency. So, we made that list and have been purchasing those things in earnest (larger generator, 100 gallon water tanks, camp stove with enough small propane for 6 months, extra propane tanks for the grill). The “have power list” is almost complete. We’ll finish it up today. It includes 3 months of canned goods, freeze dried foods & “snacky” items (ie-nutella) that would make life a little better during a quarantine. Extra dog food and antibiotics. 2, 50-lb bags of rice/quinoa, fruits veggies, etc. Berkey 3.5 gallon water filter.
In the case of home health we have: (1) Antibiotics (2) Plastic room liners w/zippers, tyvek suits, full face respirator (3) Theraflu, acetaminophen, ibuprofen, Boxes of sanitize wipes, 7 gallons of bleach (4) anti-nausea, anti diarrhea, elderberry, throat lozenges, cold packs, thermometers, epipens, 7 large gallons of Gatorade (hate the stuff) plus a 1/4 lb of electrolyte mix.
I’ve almost talked her into purchasing a small shot gun and pistol. (which we will probably sell after this is all over) I’ve got 50 hours at a tactical range logged. (lol but never purchased a weapon) So I’m confident I can ice an intruder before he has the chance to take over our property.
Our son attends University of Arizona and I’m WORKING HARD to convince her to bring him home. She still needs a little more convincing.
I figure by this Friday, we will have a DEFINITIVE idea of how serious this is and by next Friday the 14th know if it’s full blown zombie apocalypse mode.
Anxiously waiting, fingers crossed, hands for prayer. Still have to be prepared.
There is light in the tunnel. 1. This virus is targeting the ACE2 receptor which is found in Asians at roughly five-times the rate of other global populations. That is probably why we don’t see big infection cases in Europe and the VS. https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/ 2. Corona virussen are susceptible for temperature. The warmer it gets the harder they have. Spring will be wanting. 3. If you are infected put on warm clothes and exercise until your sweating. Go hang above the cooking pot with potatoes, go to the sauna, anything to raise your temperature. Corona doesn’t like that. Old Hong Kong story 100 years ago : HK was infected by an unknown epidemic. In frustration, people (including the sick) came to the street and danced the “Fire Dragon” dance. As a miracle or due to the intense heat, many sick recovered and the epidemic disappeared.
I would value this community’s thoughts on how to manage this situation as an employee.
I’m a site manager for a food manufacturer in the north of England.
My concern is knowing when one should decide to implement self imposed isolation, and how exactly that would be managed with ones employer (with an eye on future employment prospects)
hopfefully it’s not just me thinking this
It almost seems like a crap shoot. So a person goes into self imposed isolation but say half the population doesn’t and the disease continues to infect but on a slower basis. The contagion could cross your path at any point in the future until …
We might just have a future with more risk. Might change ones outlook to concentrating on whats important rather than what we spend our time on now.
Risk… how to deal with it?
MERS, like SARS and the now infamous nCoV are corona virussen.
MERS stands for Middle East respiratory syndrome. There were a few outbreaks not very long ago. Unlike China with it’s bats we deal here with camels. Boy, are they infected.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2013-08-mers-coronavirus-dromedary-camels.html
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4073860/
But if you don’t kiss your beloved camel it is unlikely to be a problem. But these camels shed virussen too. The heat there is killing those quickly. Corona don’t like heat.