Because i enjoy a little black humor from time to time here some history of the plaque.
“In the name of God, Amen. Here begins an account of the disease or mortality which occurred in 1348, put together by Gabrielem de Mussis of Piacenza.”
“…In 1346, in the countries of the East, countless numbers of Tartars and Saracens were struck down by a mysterious illness which brought sudden death. Within these countries broad regions, far-spreading provinces, magnificent kingdoms, cities, towns and settlements, ground down by illness and devoured by dreadful death, were soon stripped of their inhabitants. An eastern settlement under the rule of the Tartars called Tana, which lay to the north of Constantinople and was much frequented by Italian merchants, was totally abandoned after an incident there which led to its being besieged and attacked by hordes of Tartars who gathered in a short space of time. The Christian merchants, who had been driven out by force, were so terrified of the power of the Tartars that, to save themselves and their belongings, they fled in an armed ship to Caffa, a settlement in the same part of the world which had been founded long ago by the Genoese.
“Oh God! See how the heathen Tartar races, pouring together from all sides, suddenly invested the city of Caffa and besieged the trapped Christians there for almost three years. There, hemmed in by an immense army, they could hardly draw breath, although food could be shipped in, which offered them some hope. But behold, the whole army was affected by a disease which overran the Tartars and killed thousands upon thousands every day. It was as though arrows were raining down from heaven to strike and crush the Tartars’ arrogance. All medical advice and attention was useless; the Tartars died as soon as the signs of disease appeared on their bodies: swellings in the armpit or groin caused by coagulating humours, followed by a putrid fever.
“The dying Tartars, stunned and stupefied by the immensity of the disaster brought about by the disease, and realizing that they had no hope of escape, lost interest in the siege. But they ordered corpses to be placed in catapults and lobbed into the city in the hope that the intolerable stench would kill everyone inside. What seemed like mountains of dead were thrown into the city, and the Christians could not hide or flee or escape from them. And soon the rotting corpses tainted the air and poisoned the water supply, and the stench was so overwhelming that hardly one in several thousand was in a position to flee the remains of the Tartar army. Moreover one infected man could carry the poison to others, and infect people and places with the disease by look alone. No one knew, or could discover, a means of defense.
“Thus almost everyone who had been in the East, or in the regions to the south and north, fell victim to sudden death after contracting this pestilential disease, as if struck by a lethal arrow which raised a tumor on their bodies. The scale of the mortality and the form which it took persuaded those who lived, weeping and lamenting, through the bitter events of 1346 to 1348—the Chinese, Indians, Persians, Medes, Kurds, Armenians, Cilicians, Georgians, Mesopotamians, Nubians, Ethiopians, Turks, Egyptians, Arabs, Saracens and Greeks (for almost all the East has been affected)—that the last judgement had come.
“…As it happened, among those who escaped from Caffa by boat were a few sailors who had been infected with the poisonous disease. Some boats were bound for Genoa, others went to Venice and to other Christian areas. When the sailors reached these places and mixed with the people there, it was as if they had brought evil spirits with them: every city, every settlement, every place was poisoned by the contagious pestilence, and their inhabitants, both men and women, died suddenly. And when one person had contracted the illness, he poisoned his whole family even as he fell and died, so that those preparing to bury his body were seized by death in the same way. Thus death entered through the windows, and as cities and towns were depopulated their inhabitants mourned their dead neighbours.”
Adapted from:
Horrox R, The Black Death. Manchester: Manchester University Press; 1994. p. 14–26.
Why has coronavirus been so slow to spread outside China?This is indeed a puzzle, and I'm very glad for it. My current favorite theory is that nCoV is far more infective and deadlier for some races than others. Specifically the distribution of ACE II receptors to which the virus binds seems to be unequally distributed across races, genders (males more than females) and can be upregulated by smoking (that is, more receptors get expressed on the surface of cells as a result of smoking). But there ins't super compelling data in my possession to back this up yet. Just a handful of research articles exploring a small number of subjects. I haven't had time to explore this more fully, but I will. The next concern, of course, is that somewhere along the way the virus mutates and that changes both its infectivity (usually for the worse, because any mutations that confer higher transmissivity will, by definition, be 'more successful') and its deadliness. The best mutation would be one that makes it spread super easy but which lowers its serious/lethality percentages. Fingers crossed for that outcome.
Just found out today the Mongolian gov’t here is shutting down all its coal exports to China until March 2nd. It seems like a pretty big deal economically since most of their exports are coal and mineral trade with China. But it’s quite possible with many Chinese factories shut down there simply isn’t much demand for Mongolian coal anyway. Either way, the Mongolian economy is surely going to feel the pinch from this.
No confirmed cases here as of yet, but the news today has reported there are new cases just on the other side of the southern Mongolia-China border in one of the border towns. All land traffic to/from China except for goods shipped by rail is closed, so hopefully those cases won’t spread over the border. Mongolia isn’t likely to starve if all China imports come to a halt, and petroleum is largely imported from Russia and not China. But the local diet will get awfully limited without imports coming through China. Not to mention a lot of the machinery and industry here is reliant on consumables and parts from China.
The Mongolian gov’t here is also ‘discouraging’ people from the customary Tsagaan Sar (Mongolian New Year) holiday later this month. Given that it involves many families visiting many other families and sharing meals in their homes over several days, it’s a very sensible but unpopular policy. I think our family will be doing a ‘family only’ Tsagaan Sar, and probably at the family’s summer property outside the city. I suspect many other Mongolians in the cities will do the same, though the rural Mongolians are more likely to go about business as usual. At least they are the least likely to have been exposed in the first place…
People infected outside of China were infected much later than the ones succumbing to the virus. It hasn’t even been a month since the virus has spread overseas. Don’t forget patient 0 was in December, and it wasn’t till almost Feburary when the epidemic played out.
So don’t be so quick to judge, especially the CFR.
Daily cremation of about 341 new crown dead in the two halls of Hubei (Epoch Times) (Google Translate)
Source Article
Breitbart reference
Still only two confirmed deaths outside China. If the coronary is as contagious and deadly as advertised, how are there only two deaths so far?It takes time for deaths to come. If you look inside China, there are several areas with 1000 or several hundred cases with just a few or even zero deaths.
Police 'wearing hazmat suits' will be able to HANDCUFF suspected coronavirus patients and force them back into quarantine: Tough new laws after a patient tried to 'BREAK OUT' from Arrowe Park and total UK infected DOUBLES to eight
- Health Secretary Matt Hancock says coronavirus is 'serious and imminent threat' to the British public
- The announcement will give the government powers to forcibly quarantine victims
- Powers are brought in after a Briton staying at Arrowe Park hospital tried to flee before his isolation ended
- It comes as there are now eight confirmed cases of the coronavirus in the UK, five of whom are linked
There are more than 3000 patients of 2019-nCoV who are reported to have recovered. What is the data on these people post-recovery? Are they healthy? Do they need follow-up drugs? Are they free of the virus? Are they immune to the virus? Are they infectious to others? How many have become sick again? How many have died? What about pregnant women and newborn babies - how are they affected?
Thank you for your great, uncensored thoughts and warnings!
Rick
In the video it was said that a release of sulfur dioxide is occuring, and it’s being stated that this pollution is the result of burning organic matter, given the context this point is raised around we are left to infer that it’s bodies. That doesn’t have to be true at all, I can think of a half dozen other things that could be responsible, for example burning of refuse, or better yet it could be the burning of diesel fuel on refuse, or it could be the running of diesel generators. All of these are almost certainly happening, they have to be disposing of the used protective gear and contaminated matter, and in these situations the easy way to do that is pile it up, pour diesel on it and light it.I agree that those are all possibilities. And..let's go with what we know. After receiving dozens of reports of the Wuhan crematoriums running 24/7 we know (as much as can be known) that they are burning and contributing SO2 to the local air. We don't know, but could strongly suspect that the burning of contaminated PPE might be happening. However I would suspect that would be buried instead. Less obvious, just as good, and less chance of accidentally releasing something toxic at an already delicate time. Generators could be a thing, but I haven't received a single report of the electricity being out in Wuhan. So I can't think of why there would be a big generator load right now. It's also possible, I suppose that the local electricity plants have switched over to a lower grade of coal for some reason, possibly due to supply issues? Again, this is pure speculation. Of all the things I know and don't know, I am certain that the crematoriums are contributing to the SO2 load. How much? Don't know. Is it entirely responsible? Don't know. But we know it's a thing, guaranteed. The rest is reasonable speculation but without any data or evidence to back it up. Of course, should any arise, then we'd entertain it.
For the sake of balanced argument, I found a well-reasoned counterpoint to the theory that the recent sulfur dioxide emission spike is due to China burning bodies: https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f19uc8/debunking_the_burning_bodies_sulphur_sulfur/
disclaimer: I’m not smart enough to parse this, and I have no experience in the relevant fields. I’d be interested to hear the inputs of others who have the background to give some analysis.
Rise in sulfur dioxide could be sign of mass cremations in Wuhan
The third possibility proposed was that: "Dead bodies are being burned on the outskirts of the city, the death numbers are way higher than the CCP is letting on about, and things are really, really bad." One netizen even calculated that it would take the burning of 14,000 bodies to reach such a high level of SO2. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3874013 =========================== China confirms 27 foreigners infected with coronavirus, 2 dead China's Foreign Ministry has confirmed that two foreigners have died among 27 who have been diagnosed with the new coronavirus infection as of February 10. https://www.cgtn.com/special/Battling-the-novel-coronavirus-What-we-know-so-far-.html ========================Sixty more people confirmed with coronavirus on cruise ship in Japan: media
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-japan/sixty-more-people-confirmed-with-coronavirus-on-cruise-ship-in-japan-media-idUSKBN2040FG =========================Scientists Predict Coronavirus May Live For Up To Nine Days On Surfaces
https://www.forbes.com/sites/victoriaforster/2020/02/09/scientists-predict-coronavirus-may-live-for-up-to-nine-days-on-surfaces/#68a7143d14e3 ============================== Coronavirus latest: Nissan to halt production at Japanese plant Nissan will temporarily suspend production at a Japanese plant due to a shortage in car components, deepening the turmoil in global supply chains caused by the coronavirus outbreak. https://www.ft.com/content/edb06e55-5b8d-3a75-9ed9-7aeb07f1da14 =================================Coronavirus: Much of 'the world's factory' still shut
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51439400 =============================Coronavirus global pandemic 'looking likely' - NZ public health expert
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/409173/coronavirus-global-pandemic-looking-likely-nz-public-health-expert =============================Q1 smartphone output may drop to 5-year low due to coronavirus: report
Global smartphone production in the first quarter of the year may drop to a five-year low due to the novel coronavirus outbreak, a market researcher said Monday. TrendForce said it expects global smartphone production in the first quarter to decline 12 percent on-year to 275 million units following the coronavirus outbreak that has killed more than 900 people in China. http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200210000915 ==========================Singapore Braces as Coronavirus Cases Emerge in Finance Hub
The city-state has cautioned residents to avoid shaking hands in a bid to contain the spread of the virus. Panic buying had sparked a run on toilet paper, rice and instant noodles in stores, echoing scenes of long lines and bare shelves seen last week in Hong Kong and mainland China. Government officials warned against hoarding supplies, while the Monetary Authority of Singapore told banks to be prepared for an increased demand in cash withdrawals. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-braces-coronavirus-cases-emerge-063610017.html =======================Coronavirus cases outside China may be 'tip of the iceberg': WHO
But WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said there had been “concerning instances” of transmission from people who had not been to China. “The detection of a small number of cases may indicate more widespread transmission in other countries; in short, we may only be seeing the tip of the iceberg,” he said in Geneva. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health/coronavirus-cases-outside-china-may-be-tip-of-the-iceberg-who-idUSKBN20402G ===================
It looks like given some of the Sulfur Dioxide data actually being forecasts, this might all be a wild goose chase.
But…
What I would like to know is what they are actually spraying in the streets in several pictures from China? It could be something more standard like bleach, Chlorine Dioxide, Vaporous Hydrogen Peroxide being used as a virus inactivator, but these are usually pretty bad to inhale for us human beings.
However, a way less used viral inactivation agent is, wait for it, Sulfur Dioxide. There are a number of historical studies out there on viral inactivation of sewage and some regarding viral inactivation in mucosal membranes in animal studies.
Maybe we don’t’ have an SO2 near/over Wuhan.
Maybe they are try to mass decon their precious masks and suits due supply issues.
Maybe they are trying to decon all the infectious waste.
Maybe they are fogging hot spots within the city of Wuhan.
Who knows what is really going on regarding the SO2, but it can be used as a virucidal agent and gases would be pervasive and penetrating agent than any liquid based agent.
Once again take with a grain of salt with the SO2 forecast/data issue, but if true releases are seen, use as a virucidal agent are possible.
My data shows that the number of infections outside china should double every 4.8 days. I do not have enough data yet to have 95% confidence limits on that number.
| Country, Territory | Total Cases | Feb 9,10 Cases | Total Deaths | Feb 9,10 Deaths | Total Recovered | Total Severe | Region |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 40,197 | +2,999 | 908 | +97 | 3,619 | 6,484 | Asia |
| Japan | 161 | +72 | 4 | Asia | |||
| Singapore | 45 | +5 | 7 | 7 | Asia | ||
| Hong Kong | 38 | +12 | 1 | Asia | |||
| Thailand | 32 | 10 | 1 | Asia | |||
| S. Korea | 27 | +3 | 3 | Asia | |||
| Taiwan | 18 | +1 | 1 | Asia | |||
| Malaysia | 18 | +2 | 3 | Asia | |||
| Australia | 15 | 5 | Oceania | ||||
| Vietnam | 14 | +1 | 3 | Asia | |||
| Germany | 14 | Europe | |||||
| USA | 12 | 3 | N.America | ||||
| France | 11 | 1 | Europe | ||||
| Macao | 10 | 1 | Asia | ||||
| U.K. | 8 | +5 | Europe | ||||
| U.A.E. | 7 | 1 | Asia | ||||
| Canada | 7 | N.America | |||||
| Philippines | 3 | 1 | 2 | Asia | |||
| Italy | 3 | 2 | Europe | ||||
| India | 3 | Asia | |||||
| Russia | 2 | Europe | |||||
| Spain | 2 | +1 | Europe | ||||
| Sri Lanka | 1 | 1 | Asia | ||||
| Cambodia | 1 | 1 | Asia | ||||
| Finland | 1 | 1 | Europe | ||||
| Nepal | 1 | Asia | |||||
| Sweden | 1 | Europe | |||||
| Belgium | 1 | Europe |
The red solid line is the daily increase in the cases in China as a percentage of the previous day as reported. Prior to Jan 28, when they put all reporting under the command of a central committee, it was showing a dramatic increase on a daily basis with high variabilty. After this date the increase started to decline with little variability. The green triangles show what you would get from a statistical model of a decline. It shows a 98% correlation with the reported data. How convenient. The blue dotted line shows the increase in cases outside of China. It shows the variability you would expect in this type of data. Draw your own conclusions.
| Region | Confirmed | Deaths | Recovered |
|---|
| Mainland China | 40199 | 908 | 3549 |
| Japan | 156 | 0 | 4 |
| Singapore | 45 | 0 | 7 |
| Hong Kong | 38 | 1 | 0 |
| Thailand | 32 | 0 | 10 |
| South Korea | 27 | 0 | 3 |
| Malaysia | 18 | 0 | 3 |
| Taiwan | 18 | 0 | 1 |
| Australia | 15 | 0 | 5 |
| Vietnam | 14 | 0 | 3 |
| Germany | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| US | 12 | 0 | 3 |
| France | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Macau | 10 | 0 | 1 |
| Region | Confirmed | Deaths | Recovered |
|---|
| UK | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Canada | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| United Arab Emirates | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| Philippines | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| India | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Italy | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Russia | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Spain | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Sri Lanka | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Sweden | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Belgium | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cambodia | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nepal | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Finland | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Country, Territory | Total Cases | Feb 9,10 Cases | Total Deaths | Feb 9,10 Deaths | Total Recovered | Total Severe | Region |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 40,197 | +2,999 | 908 | +97 | 3,619 | 6,484 | Asia |
| Japan | 161 | +72 | 4 | Asia | |||
| Singapore | 45 | +5 | 7 | 7 | Asia | ||
| Hong Kong | 38 | +12 | 1 | Asia | |||
| Thailand | 32 | 10 | 1 | Asia | |||
| S. Korea | 27 | +3 | 3 | Asia | |||
| Taiwan | 18 | +1 | 1 | Asia | |||
| Malaysia | 18 | +2 | 3 | Asia | |||
| Australia | 15 | 5 | Oceania | ||||
| Vietnam | 14 | +1 | 3 | Asia | |||
| Germany | 14 | Europe | |||||
| USA | 12 | 3 | N.America | ||||
| France | 11 | 1 | Europe | ||||
| Macao | 10 | 1 | Asia | ||||
| U.K. | 8 | +5 | Europe | ||||
| U.A.E. | 7 | 1 | Asia | ||||
| Canada | 7 | N.America | |||||
| Philippines | 3 | 1 | 2 | Asia | |||
| Italy | 3 | 2 | Europe | ||||
| India | 3 | Asia | |||||
| Russia | 2 | Europe | |||||
| Spain | 2 | +1 | Europe | ||||
| Sri Lanka | 1 | 1 | Asia | ||||
| Cambodia | 1 | 1 | Asia | ||||
| Finland | 1 | 1 | Europe | ||||
| Nepal | 1 | Asia | |||||
| Sweden | 1 | Europe | |||||
| Belgium | 1 | Europe |
The stickler in me keeps wanting to correct these incorrect comments that appear here. Let’s get our facts straight. Read post #59 in this thread https://peakprosperity.com/coronavirus-what-we-can-say-publicly-what-we-cant/ for a deeper explanation.
In fact, a just published (not peer reviewed paper) of many more lung tissue samples from Asians and Caucausians saw no difference in ACE2 expression between the two groups. They did however see that smokers had higher expression.
Thank you David (post #63) for posting the link to this paper https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202002.0051/v1
Published by Guoshuai Cai, Professor Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC
These methodologies and conclusions seem legitimate. This is the kind of replication studies that are needed to reinforce or disprove the observation seen in one tissue sample from a single Asian male. This larger study disproves that theory. This is how science is supposed to work. come up with a hypothesis, test it, report observations, keep repeating in larger samples and see if you get the same/different result, as in keep testing your hypothesis. I would say this is a very opposite result from the paper that only looked at 8 samples, one being asian male. So that is a failed hypothesis.
ACE II stands for ACE Insertion/Insertion…it is a very common mutation in the ACE gene….it has absolutely nothing to do with ACE2. ACE and ACE2 are two different genes entirely.
ACE Angiotensin-converting enzyme is on chromosome 17
ACE2 Angiotensin converting enzyme 2 is on the X chromosome (so potentially women who have two X chromosomes may have more expression of ACE2 than men, who have only one X chromosome).
Clairehttps://twitter.com/DesoGames/status/1226897630678126592
I just wanted to post that here as well, since i know for a lot of people in the US and EU, the clock doesn’t start ticking until the market drops. And so far the market is having none of it.