I made this preliminary trajectory analysis based on a debatable assumption that all projectiles traveled over the target area. I had to make an overhead map myself and I put the stands on the google map as accurately as I could. Does anyone have an accurate direct overhead aerial photo taken on the day of the event?
Just some random thoughts:
Hot day (with heavy kit package), boring detail (Iâm guessing ESU teams train for dynamic âsituationsâ- not hanging out), long shifts (maybe). Iâm thinking most/all of the LEO on the ground were not at the top of their game that afternoon.
AGR building was outside the PacMan SS perimeter. It took ESU ~20 min. to enter Bldg. 6, where there was already a SS tactical guy inside, along with âsleevedâ sniper.
There did seem to be something weird about the whole ladder issue discussion in the Bldg.6 entry and while passing the alcove where the larger ladder was, at some point in time. When passing the alcove the blue-uniformed officer seemed to pause there, and then emphatically instruct the team to go to the other âcorridorâ (?) where the strangely-to-me-not-fully-extended tactical ladder was placed.
There was a broken plastic lawn chair next to the shed that was seen whole at some point. Did someone try to step on it, it broke, they fell and twisted their ankle or wrist? Medical record or future Workers Comp claim?
Beaver Co. ESU seemed to receive some deference by the other LEO in Bldg.6 entry discussion. Whydat?
I didnât see any sniper-type weapons (long barrel, big optics) on any LEO besides the red barn teams. All the weapons I saw in the helmet cam vid appeared to be AR platform.
If the 2nd story sniper teams had heavy weapons at the windows, would they leave them unattended to check out âCrooksâ?
In a rather remote location such as the fairgrounds, wouldnât there tend to be a lot of private company security camera footage available, including the 2-story building a ways North of Bldg. 6?
Again, random observations.
It might be interesting to do a forensic analysis on the op security plans for similar past Trump outdoor rallies.
I shoot a 5.56 NATO rifle.
My spent brass never goes that far forward from my shooting position.
Looks staged.
Resources:
- YouTube video showing bullet 1 impact and bullet 3 moving the fabric just below bullet 1âs impact site
- Google Earth
location for American Glass Research
Show Ruler
Draw a Line
right click on the line in the left sidebar and select Show Elevation Profile - Trigonometry calculator https://www.carbidedepot.com/formulas-trigright.asp
I am assume that there were two snipers that shot from Building 6 via two of the windows, possibly the second and third windows from the parking lot.
Ground level above sea level just outside the window at the shooting location 1335 feet.
Assume the snipers are in a seated position with their rifle stabilized on a shooting rest.
Assume the rifle barrel is about 4 feet above the floor of the building and assume that is about 5 feet above ground level therefore the rifle barrel is 1340 feet above sea level.
Ground level above sea level at Trumpâs location 1337 feet
Assume Trumpâs ear is 10 feet above ground level and is therefore 1347 feet above sea level.
Therefore, Trumpâs ear is about 7 feet above the barrel of the sniperâs rifle.
Since the sniperâs rifle barrel is lower than Trumpâs ear, we already know that the bullet will have an ascending trajectory.
This 7 feet will be the opposite side of triangle A. The adjacent side of triangle A is 420 feet my estimate of the distance from Building 6 to Trump.
Triangle A will have angle theta.
Maintaining angle theta of triangle A constant, we will extend the adjacent side of triangle A to 504 feet, my estimate of the distance from Building 6 to the bleacher location where bullet 1 impacted and we now have triangle B.
The difference between the opposite sides of triangle A and triangle B will determine how much higher than Trumpâs ear the bullet impacted at its terminal point of impact.
The calculator results below show that the height of the bullet impact is 8.4 feet above the level of the rifle barrel and with Trumpâs ear being 7 feet above the rifle barrel the bullet impacted 1.4 feet above the level of Trumpâs ear.
Multiple videos of that scene easily show that that railing is higher than Trumpâs ear.
As for the slight difference in timing between the crack and boom of the three first shots, the speed of sound that day was about 1.2 feet per millisecond. If there is a 5 millisecond difference between shot 1 and shots 2 and 3, that amounts to about 6 feet.
Two shooters IN building 6, shooting out of 2 windows, shot 1 shooter is back from the window, which accounts for the slightly quieter shot and the slightly longer time between the sonic crack and sound from the muzzle, then shots 2 and 3 are heard and shooter is 6 feet closer to his window, then it all seems to fit.
When these two shooters saw that they missed, they bugged out.
Then, the other shots, idk.
Referring to my previous post on this topic, where I believe I have established that the first bullet impacted the bleacher handrail about 1.4 feet higher than Trumpâs ear, the questioon now becomes what would the trajectory of that first bullet be if Crooks had taken the first shot?
Go to Google Earth and put the cursor where Crooks body was found.
The elevation above sea level is 1357 feet. The snipersâ rifle barrels are at 1340 feet.
That puts Crooksâ rifle barrel 17 feet higher than our assumed snipers that are inside the building.
The pro snipersâ 'rifle barrels were 1340 feet and Trumpâs ear was 7 feet above that so Crooksâ rifle barrel would be 10 feet above Trumpâs ear and letâs say a range of an extra 30 feet or 450 feet.
(looking at this triangle, recall that the bullet trajectory is descending so you have to imagine the triangle flipped vertically)
See the comparative result belowâŚ
Maintaining angle theta and making the range 534 feet we get the next result:
If Crooks had taken that first shot, the bullet impact would have been about 1.9 feet BELOW the level of Trumpâs ear.
This would be ( 1.4 + 1.9 ) = 3.3 feet LOWER than the actual impact of that first bullet.
What is needed to corroborate this analysis is the exact height of the bleacher railing where the first bullet hit.
Get in touch with the rental company that set that up. Hopefully they still have that actual bleacher and the bullet impact site as evidence.
If not, surely they have similar bleachers and that height can be determined.
I have watched hundreds of videos and commentaries and theories about the event. Not one of them mentions the âmoving fabricâ at the guardrail that coincides with the third shot heard. I suppose nobody else noticed this.
It shows in a few places in the video, one in slow motion at time stamp 34:36 near the end.
The first shot, after hitting Trumpâs ear, hits the guard rail and shatters sending schrapnel towards Mr Dutch and Mr dark T Shirt impacting their respective right sides.
The idea that Mr Dutch was hit by the bullet is ridiculous. He is seen coming down off the bleachers on his own and holding his right side. Which is consistent with what I suggest here.
There is no video evidence of shot #2 in the video I reference here.
But shot #3 coincides exactly with what seems to be the fabric that is just below the guardrail moving as though a bullet passed nearby and parallel to the fabric and the wake of the bullet passing is what moves the fabric.
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Per my previous post, here is the âflag guyâ or Dutch as he is sometimes referred to. This is one of the guys I say was struck by schrapnel flying of the guardrail from the first bullet hit.
Some âinvestigatorsâ claim that he was shot. I doubt that this is what a 5.56 round hit would look like. No blood dripping down and the guy is walking on his own.
This supports my contention that this man was only hit with schrapnel.
And this supports the idea that shots 1, 2 and 3 came from the direction of Building 6.
Some investigators claim that the first shot was across the top row of that bleachers, striking multiple people and then hitting the guardrail.
That is ridiculous.
With all that there was at stake, getting rid of Trump and billions in put option profits, this well organized assassination was supposed to take out a few snipers and hit some spectators? No way. People like that are just not thinking clearly.
This âopen windowâ is a decoy! Look at the window below where Crooks was!
If we can now look in Chrisâ Green Bucket and see that the point in space of Trumpâs ear is known, and that the impact on the bleachers by bullet #1 is also a point in space that is known, these are data that show that bullet #1 was in an upward trajectory. Then we must draw a relatively straight (ignoring the slight arc of the actual bullet trajectory) line intersecting these two points in space to find the point of origin.
That trajectory points to two shooters (plural due to acoustics analysis and interpretation) IN Building 6.
This now falsifies the notion of a lone gunman or even a few nut job gunmen outsmarting the SS and all other law enforcement on that day.
This necessitates that the investigation shift its primary assumption and proceed on the basis that this was a conspiracy at the highest levels.
What is disappointing is that there are many members of Congress etc that are still pursuing this lone gunman idea in their lines of questioning.
With the USSS investigating themselves and the FBI in overall charge of the investigation, nobody has any confidence in any conclusions these folks will try and make us believe.
As for shots 4 5 6 7 8, I donât know. Might have been Crooks but at this point does it really matter? In my opinion, as soon as we place two snipers IN building 6, we know all we need to know and somebody needs to answer some tough questions and a lot of conspirators needs to be arrested, charged, convicted and sentenced for one of the great crimes of the century.
Thank you for doing all the work on the bullet elevation analysis. I was having a difficult time determining elevations myself. I have watched the video you posted several times but was not able to see the fabric moving. Maybe you could post a screenshot with an arrow where I should look? I learned from the video that the man wearing a black shirt was hit by either a bullet or schrapnel which I was not aware of before. I am still not sure why the thin young man with the white shirt in the left side of the video fell after shot # 1 but is not listed as a victim.
I previously listed the victims as :
Victim # 1, shot # 1: Trump
Victim # 2, shot # 2: David Dutch, 57 y/o, New Kensington, stable condition
Victim # 3, shot #3: James Copenhaver, 74 y/o, Moontownship, PA, stable condition
Victim # 4, shot # ??? : Corey Comperatore, 50 y/o, Deceased
The victim list should show probably include the man in the corner wearing black. I still do not know why the thin young man in white fell and have not heard any reports or injuries.
I am starting to think, based on the trajectories, that shots 1,2 and 3 might have come from inside the single-story AGR building, possibly even from different rifles and different locations in the building.
Thanks for the reply and additional info.
If you look at the âred cloudedâ area on this screenshot, this is the fabric I am talking about. It does not look like wind moves it since no other fabric moves. I think itâs the wake of the air by bullet 3 passing by.
My rudimentary analysis convinces me that bullet 1, the one where we have two points in space that are Green Bucket data, proves that the bullet trajectory was ascending which puts the point of origin of the bullet on the main floor of Building 6 which proves a massive conspiracy to commit murder.
Chris is working on getting a super accurate 3d model of the crime scene. The crucial data is exactly what is the height of the bullet 1 impact on the guardrail?
That will tell the story.
Thanks for clarifying the video. I see the movement of the fabric on the guardrail now. I can see a few possibilities.
- Wind from the bullet as you stated.
- The man in black touched the fabric with his body or left elbow as he was falling.
- Wind from the body movements of the ducking crowd.
- Other people along the guardrail touched the fabric as they were reacting.
If shots 2 or 3 hit the banner, I will have to change my trajectory analysis.
My working theory was that shot # 1 hit the guardrail of the southern stands just below the corner and also struck the hydraulic line, shot # 2 hit David Dutch slightly further north in the southern stands and shot # 3 hit James Copenhaver even further north in the southern stands. Corey Comperatore was shot in the northern stands. No one was injured in the center stands as far as I am aware. First 3 victims appeared to be at near equal elevation in the south stands. Comperatoreâs elevation appeared to be slightly lower in the north stands compared to the victims in the south stands.
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I see no video evidence of shot 2, but shot 3 coincides exactly with that fabric moving.
The only scenario that makes sense to me for that fabric to move as it did, over a length of about two feet, is the wake of bullet #1 passing.
Any of your other points would see fabric in other areas also move. They do not.
Dutch was hit by schrapnel, not a bullet. He walked down the steps of the bleachers on his own with no blood showing. (see screenshot) If he had been hit with a 5.56 bullet, he would at the very least be carried out on a stretcher. Dead or alive. I suspect any sniper would have used a polymer tipped cartridge like a Hornady or equal. A bullet that would have expanded on impact causing maximum wound cavity and tissue damage.
I suspect that all injuries and the death of Mr Comperatore were by shots 4 5 6 7 or 8. Those may have been by Crooks, I donât know and have not analysed it.
What proves high level and massive conspiracy to commit murder is shot 1 2 and 3 and their point of origin. Once we all accept that fact, the investigation needs to refocus as one that looks for and prosecutes that conspiracy and all its conspirators.
I meant to upload this screenshot of Dutch walking down the steps on his own. No blood. I believe this was a mere schrapnel wound to his right side which would be the side facing bullet #1 shattering on the guardrail.
Thanks again for your response. I do want to get my trajectory analysis right, so I do have some questions.
I assume by shrapnel, you are suggesting the bullet hit something before hitting Mr. Dutch, causing fragments of the impacted object to be propelled in the same direction of travel as the bullet. I did not see any objects that may have produced this shrapnel in the video. It would be unlikely for the guardrail to be fragmented and reflect shrapnel in the opposite direction of bullet travel and hit Mr. Dutch since his injuries are on the opposite side as the guardrail. You may be trying to describe a ricochet of the bullet instead of shrapnel but I still do not understand how this could produce Mr. Dutchâs injuries. Thank you again for your kind and well worded responses.
Yes, my scenario says that the bullet first hits the guardrail just to the right of dark T Shirt man and shatters on impact. Then, where the spray of bullet fragments, aka schrapnel go, depends on exactly where the bullet hits. If it is on the vertical pipe and just at the right point of impact, then itâs possible that the shattered pieces of the bullet would ricochet at some angle that would hit Dutch and dark T Shirt man.
I assume this is the case since dark T Shirt man raises his hand to his right side, and Dutch spins to his left and ducks. Just before the bullet hits the guardrail, it looks like dark T Shirt man is just a bit farther away from the Megatron than Dutch which allow both men to be hit with schrapnel.
Iâm convinced that Dutchâs injury is not a bullet wound since he walks down the steps on his own and there is no blood visible.
Thank you again for your reply. The video you posted has proven extremely useful in my analysis. I have now watched it many times. If you wouldnât mind, could you look at the dark shirt manâs left hand and elbow very closely as he falls? The movement of the fabric does seem to correlate very well with his left hand and elbow sliding down off the railing and dragging against the fabric as he is falling. It did take me about 20 or 30 viewings to make the connection, to be honest.
Just another quick comment here⌠when you say that âthe bullet hit something⌠causing fragments of the impacted object to be propelled in the same direction of travel as the bulletâ
Let me be clear,
A ricochet does not typically go in the same direction of travel as the bullet. It is when a bullet hits a hard object like steel and deviates at some angle from the angle of approach.
If you hit a solid and immovable steel target at the range, the bullet, if âball ammoâ type, in other words, one solid blob of lead, full metal jacket or FMJ, that bullet could ricochet right back at you or in other words a 180 degree ricochet. Shooting ranges, if you are shooting steet targets, have minimum distance rules for the shooter to the target, for exactly this reason.
If that same ball ammo hits any other object at some angle, it could deflect at a predictable angle depending on the exact location on the surface that it hits relative to the trajectory of the bullet.
In this case, I would think that a sniper, seeking to inflict maximum damage and maximum visual effect for Mr New York Times photographer with the 1/8000 second shutter speed setting, would select a cartridge with a bullet that would produce the maximum expansion upon impact and the maximum terminal effect.
A Hornady .223 or 5.56 NATO with polymer tip or soft tip would be ideal.
Does anyone in Buttler would make a physical test on the site, whether itâs possible for 20 yo guy with backpack climb on any mechanical equipment on the site as FBI director stated. I have a feeling that even this words were not true. When you look on the air conditioners, they are not enough high to be able to climb by Crooks heigh guy and even he would be able to touch the edges of the roof , due it roof steel edges, he had no way to grab something on the top to be able to lift his own weight and even there would be some kind of handles on the edges - I doubt by seeing his muscles he would be able to lift his body up into the roof. The only one place which I have seen which doesnt require ladder would be the attached that air pipe construction behind the airconditioner but if he would use this way - he would be easly spotted by the SS agents as it was in the front of the window on the corner and there was plenty of spotters who would easly see him climbing. So overall , very important is to get someone locally and walk around and make a test if there is any way to climb on the roof. That would help as i f he wouldnt get in without ladder then we know definitelly he was not acting alone. Unfortunatelly, Iâm over 4200 miles away so Iâm unable to do it but I believe in strenght of local community who care about it and someone will find a time to do a test and share results here on this forum.
