I understood your statement that the raising wasn’t a voluntary reaction and wasn’t trying to imply that.
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I hope people didn’t totally ignore my post of (scrolling back a-ways) Aug 30 about the telehandler spray appearing to hit the jumbo TV and bounce off to the South.
The US House report says that one bullet hit the south TV vinyl cover. It stands to reason a bullet would continue through that.
So… my somewhat slow moving brain finally said: what if that bullet hit the telehandler hydraulic line? Where would it have come from?
Enter my “favorite” overhead photo:
In backwards order:
- The bullet hit the telehandler hydraulic line
- went through the vinyl cover
- went below the south TV, somehow missing people in the back row either because it was just below the TV, just by luck or because the person in question who would have been in the way had already ducked
- crossed in front of the center bleachers, perhaps explaining why Gary (in the neon yellow shirt here) said “I felt a bullet go by me, I could feel the velocity of the bullet, like the energy in the air changed, like a car drove by you, but there was no car.”
- passed behind the north bleachers and north TV
- originated either in the nearer trees or from the trees beyond the water tower.
Here’s a detail from the RagTagVagabond 4K version:
When I look at the detail I think: but wait - that fluid is coming out at an 5 or 6 percent upward grade! That’s not consistent with a bullet coming through the from below the TV and through the vinyl cover!
So it would seem. But the photographic evidence of the bullet hole is more consistent with an almost level angle:
(I rotated that photo to simulate the angle of the pipe when it was hit.)
Bullets can deflect or wobble as they penetrate thick (0.16 thick) steel, and the inner edge of the hole could be non symmetrical.
I think it’s likely that such a bullet would have been a penetrating round - a bullet with a steel or tungsten core.
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If the jumbotron vinyl covered a hard surface, the Trump/Copenhaver Shot 1 fragments could have bounced southwest and hit ToughOldBird’s elbow.
For the JCB machine, I think it was Bullet2, after exiting Dutch’s ribcage.
I’ve made that judgement on my website here:
I was already aware of the higher-quality video. What the improved resolution shows more clearly is the fence line. However, behind the fence, you can still see dynamic movement during the first shot.
before:
during shot 1:
Here is another GIF showing dynamic action near window 2 shortly before shot 1 was fired:
Does anyone have the original link to his video? I’ve never been able to find a direct upload from him, so this version appears to be second-hand. I would particularly appreciate an HD version that shows vent 1 during shot 3.
It seems we still have different interpretations of shot 1, but that’s fine—ultimately, the truth will prevail.
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I called it driscoll.mp4, and it’s 60 frames/second, and a large face visible in 16 frames(0.267 second) under a smoke cloud:
I would like to address the following topic:
Does anybody see a pattern here?
Five casings landed on the same side as Crooks was firing from, while three ended up on the opposite side of the ridge.
Considering that Crooks was shooting at about a 20° angle toward the stage, it seems highly suspicious that three casings crossed over the ridge. In addition, two of those are directly on top of each other.
Looking at a normal ejection angle we get the following:
3 o-clock to 4:30 is normal. If we look at our case using an even larger tolerance from 2 o-clock to 5 o-clock it looks like this:
The three casings are out of tolerance. If we follow our 2 shooter hypothesis, shots 1 - 3 where shot from inside the AGR building 6 therefore 3 casings would be missing on the roof. So the first guys up on the roof would most likely be the ones to put the 3 missing casings. The fact that two casings are on top of each other would give you the feeling as if somebody gently put them on the roof, not wanting to make much noise. The fact that they are on the wrong side of the roof, might be because other people were watching and they had no choice and had to act quickly.
So let’s investigate together. Who where the first people on the roof?
Thankfully we have Collins body cam video. Let us set up a possible scenario:
When Collins gets on top of the roof, we can see 3 people:
One guy has a tattoo:
Tattoo guy takes something from behind (3 casings?)
Swat guy and Tattoo guy are looking at eachother:
Passing something from left hand to left hand?
Swat guy puts something in his pouch:
Swat guy puts hand cuffs on Crooks:
At this time one casing is not visible:
night view guy takes the pouch:
night view guy wants to give the pouch back to Swat guy by saying: “here”, but Swat guy refuses (playing hot potato?)
night view guy sends everybody away:
night view guy sets the pouch onto the ridge:
night view guy tells Collins to turn around (30 seconds):
after 30 seconds Collins turns around and the casing is visible for the first time
night view guy warns about casings for the first time:
night view guy carries the pouch back to swat guy.
swat guy accepts the pouch this time:
night view guy warns about casings for the 2nd time, swat guy is caring his pouch again:
night view guy warns about casings for the 3rd time:
night view guy warns about casings for the 4th time:
And the final question is, why is the night view guy wearing a night view device in the brightest of day light? 
This could be a possible scenario if somebody would have placed three casings on top of the roof.
whatch the entire video from the official Matthew Pearson dropbox:
Video name is: 1382_202407131800_BWC2122110-0RATF.mp4 size 1.82GB
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Stacy Bennett’s video shows Hercules 1 and the south bleacher corner puff at the same time. It’s not super sharp, but it’s good enough to see that David King put his left hand on the forward part of his rifle right at the time a cloud appears off the railing.
This is 7 frames after I hear the sound of a bullet and Trump says “oh”.
With RagTagVagabond
King has his hand toward the front of the rifle at “pened” in happened". Of course, he’s pretty far back in the crowd. It may have taken 0.05 seconds for the sound to travel that far:
He’s either zoomed in so far or cropped that you can’t see anything but the snipers and the static television display.
On the third video, King has his hand toward the front of the rifle at “hap” in “happened”, and it sounds like the shot is heard more like at the “oh”.
https://x.com/prayingmedic/status/1812520922638610504
So, two of these have David King putting his left hand toward the front part of the rifle right about the time shots start.
Stacy Bennett’s is an outlier - It’s got the shots starting about 7 frames before King moving his hand and the puff on the railing. If Stacy Bennett’s audio-video synch was accurate, then the railing strike is later than the audible shot. (I don’t think it is accurate).
Comparing to other videos (more than just the ones I talk about here) which I don’t want to get into tonight because it’s getting close to my bedtime, I think the puff of “smoke” happens at the time of the 1st audible shot.
Basically, if you ever see the guy in the red hat, white shirt and beige shorts react ridiculously quickly to the first shot, that’s a sign that the sound is lagged.
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If the ‘puff of smoke’ is the rail impact bullet, it was no less than 1/4 second early, before Supersonic Shot 1.
It also was moving from Northeast to Southwest, and was behind the back of ToughOldBird.
It was from the direction of the trees Northeast.
look at the corner:
puff of smoke:
The banner smoke can be seen when blue hoodie guy gets visible.
Is this the same shot?
I think this smoke is some higher. Possibly it is another shot.
Yes, verified. Great observation.
But I think the smoke from side view is way higher. It might be another shot.
(Not entirely - but I got a crazy assignment and might be away for a couple of days.)
Geee! From this angle the telehandler looks like totally perpendicular.
Still I can barely see the stage.
After the individual confronted with Collins, within 30 seconds he crawled up and aimed the target with red dot.
I would bet it is another shot - not necessary audible.
It is plausible.
With that GIF it does look there is some “smoke” (I would assume this is galvanizing coating?) behind Mr. Dutch’s shoulder’s and head. The white stripe at their waist level is changing brightness, but it’s hard to tell if that would be from “smoke” or from a different amount of sunlight hitting that spot due to the banner moving.
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…almost below belt level, white becomes gray for 8 frames.
ToughOldBird’s right arm may have dripped blood, plasma, fragments of lead, zinc, steel.
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I’m reading the document detailing the suspension of Pittsburgh SAIC Tim Burke. He got a 14 day suspension. It’s well worth the read; there are a lot of details.
https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/PITTSBURGH-SAIC-COMBINED_FINAL.pdf
What’s infuriating:
“The offense of “Dereliction of Supervisory Responsibility,” Offense Code 5.6, provides for a standard penalty of a five-day suspension, a mitigated penalty of a letter of reprimand to a three-day suspension, and an aggravated penalty of a seven day to a fourteen-day
suspension.”
He got the AGGRAVATED PENALTY. That was just 14 days.
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The shot strikes the bleacher, and the wind carries the impact debris away. As a result, the smoke rises higher a few milliseconds after the impact.
I can’t believe that after more than a year we are still back at square one — namely, the fact that the first shot grazed Trump’s ear and then struck the corner of the bleachers.
To settle this debate once and for all, I took the time to provide indisputable evidence by synchronizing the two video recordings. Using the command below, I added timestamps to both videos so they could be compared with milliseconds precision:
.\ffmpeg -i "shot1_bleachers.mp4" -vf "drawtext=text='%{pts\:hms}':x=560:y=300:fontsize=24:fontcolor=yellow:box=1:boxcolor=black@0.5" -c:a copy "shot1_bleachers_with_timestamps.mp4"
For synchronization, I chose a clear point of reference visible in both videos: the girl to the left of David raises her left arm from a downward to an upward position shortly after shot 1.
We can now synchronize the footage frame by frame:
- 00:05.500 – Arm down, bleacher corner unobstructed:
- 00:05.533 – Shot 1 impacts top bleacher corner
- 00:05.567 – Impact debris carried away by the wind
- 00:05.767 – Arm raised
Time between arm raised and shot impact:
00:05.767 – 00:05.533 = 0.234 seconds
So it takes 234 milliseconds for the girl to raise her left arm after shot 1 impacts the bleachers top railing.
Now let’s compare in the Comparator video:
- 01:18.412 – Trump is looking toward the audience
- 01:18.495 – Trump turns head toward the screen
- 01:18.662 – Shot 1 grazes Trump’s ear
- 01:18.704 – Impact debris visible at the bleacher corner, arm is still down
- 01:18.912 – Girl’s left arm raised
Time between arm raised and shot grazing ear:
01:18.912 – 01:18.662 = 0.250 seconds
Please note that all of these screen shots occur within a single second.
The results are consistent: in both videos, there is identical timing between the shot and the girl raising her arm. This forensic time analysis proves that the first shot grazed Trump’s ear and then struck the upper bleacher corner.
That would make some sense, except James Copenhaver says he was shot by the first bullet and we see his arm react at the time of the first shot.
So we have two competing impact points. And I don’t have a good way to choose one over the other as the bullet that hit Trump’s ear.
Backtracing a shot that hits Trump’s ear and then Copenhavers arm gives a location that is just above one of the big vents on AGR 6. I don’t see how that works.
I’ve discussed my views on the eastern vent. I think it’s possible, but it would most likely be a subsonic bullet, so we’re right back to sourcing a bullet that sounds a little muffled with a .220 snap bang time. And we’d need to think what kind of material could be shot through but would appear to be solid.
I’m not even going to dismiss the possibility there were THREE bullets flying at the same time, with one hitting Trump, one hitting the railing, and one hitting Copenhaver.
There could easily have been a sniper on AGR 9, and there were gobs of positions in trees. Then there are a couple of videos where people on the south side are shots were coming from the south.
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Not millisecond precision but 33 ms, the frame duration!
I don’t see how you can be sure, seeing such a blurry image, that a bullet traveling at 1000 m/s just hit Trump’s ear!
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We have multiple videos of the impact on the top bleacher corner. Since we have multiple consistent video records, they outweigh a single spoken testimony.
Since we have over 10 separate recordings at different locations all capture only one shot, the default conclusion is that only one gunshot occurred.
- the rail impact was no less than 1/4 second before ‘shot 1’.
- the zinz dust/lead dust rolled off the railtop southwest…not south…interesting I/we can’t see the dustball in Corey’s frames…
- the rail impact bullet was behind the back of ToughOldBird
- 5 or more suppressed shots can be heard on Dayve’s recording, as Trump says ‘couple of months old, that chart’
- roger-knight began by posting a video with ‘forwarded’ audio
“FlowerLady” turns her head away from the TV 1/2 second before Trump’s ear(my number 150). Her head flinches 1/4 second before Trump’s ear.
Watch FlowerLady in frames 149 to 156(Trump’s ear, I claim 161 or 162):
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Actually - without audio - I cannot observe the frame when Trump’s ear was hit.
He believed only the medical aid command post was going to be separated.
The SAIC doesn’t need to wait invitation. He should have organized the meetings and walkthroughs - in person or by someone “on behalf of him”. Anyway, he should have been aware.
From other hand, sometimes the boss wants to check how a “trainee” or candidate for higher responsibility would perform such tasks. But it does not mean letting her/him doing without supervision.
His defensive answers show he tried to get rid of responsibility - in very stupid ways.
(In my country it would be “negligence causing death in the course of job”.)
But…
this procedure - as big picture - looks like “panem et circus”. Or…
Muttley was doing something.
dust particles I guess
Smoke of hot air should goes up from burning flames. But I think it is just smoke of dust particles - which are not very hot.
Anyway, the FBI didn’t reveal the railing impact.
Well, I cannot see the frame when Trump’s ear was hit. Only from the audio can I assume. But the audio might be off technically, and the sound propagation needs time - to be considered.
Sorry for the small inaccuracy in my statement about millisecond precision. I immediately corrected my comment from millisecond to milliseconds.
Not only do we see dynamic movement with Trump’s ear in frame 01:18.662, but we can also calculate the timing using this method:
From the two synchronized videos, we have confirmed that the debris smoke seen in the first video corresponds to the same impact as shot 1 in the Comparatore video, which is frame 01:18.704. As you mentioned, the bullet travels at approximately 1000 m/s, and the distance between Trump’s ear and the bleachers’ impact point is 79 feet.
Therefore, it takes about 0.024 seconds, or 24 ms, for the bullet to travel from grazing Trump’s ear to striking the corner of the bleachers.
Thus, we know that shot 1 impacted the bleachers at 01:18.704. To determine when shot 1 grazed Trump’s ear, we subtract 24 milliseconds, giving us 01:18.680. The next possible video frame is 01:18.662, which corresponds to one frame earlier.