So It's Back To First Principles (Part 2)

[sonjax6]

@roger-knight

At this point, Trump is already covering his ear with his hand, which makes it impossible for this shot to have struck his ear.

I gave you a heart for the bulk of that post. Obviously I’m not convinced on the “and then impacts the bleachers” part.

[sonjax6]

@flamecensor

But if the exterior is metal cladding, under the vinyl, and south/southeast of ToughOldBird’s elbow, I’m ready to claim that Copenhaver’s arm bullet bounced off the metal, with fragments hitting ToughOldBird’s arm/elbow, and FlowerLady’s left arm(in Corey frames, TOB lifts right arm, FlowerLady rotates left shoulder North, Copenhaver’s arm is already moving, and the rail has already been hit ~1/2 second earlier):

This might help you a bit. From RagTagVagabond’s video. I’m just amazed how clear that video is, considering how far away he was.

There’s roughly 8 feet from the corner to that post that’s used to hold the bleachers together when moving (two of which are circled in blue). Then there’s another 4 feet from the post to Mr. Copenhaver.

[sonjax6]

@flamecensor

Regarding the suppressed shots, heard by me and by Hercules2East, that could be proven beyond doubt to a judge and jury in a courtroom.

These witnesses saw gunsmoke from trees:

Those witnesses that saw gunsmoke from the trees were pointing to the south, of course.

Iris Tao’s video (she’s not the one who recorded it though) has a woman in the area near Mr. Copenhaver and Mr. Dutch saying a bullet passed near her and it came from behind.

When there’s rock solid proof of a second shooter, I don’t think we should be dismissing first hand reports of other shooters out of hand.

We have two people in that video that flamecensor posted saying the shots came from the field to the south. The woman added that “they were so close”. This happened within a few minutes of shots happening. That counts for something!

The Hercules 2 countersniper is highly trained in recognizing gunfire, and he knew he would be facing a lot of pushback for his testimony. His testimony should not be dismissed either.

Mike Sulerud stated (on Collins’ video) that HE thought his vehicle was taking fire when they were pulling out from the barn. He stated that within 15 minutes of shots being fired. This is a SWAT guy, he knows what he is talking about.

[flamecensor]

@sonjax6

RagTagVagabond’s video

Do you have the whole RedTagVagabond video, to download? Thanks.

[sonjax6]

@phiphi-the-frenchie

@phiphi-the-frenchie

My reasoning is different:
The bullet takes 146 ms to travel from Crooks to Corey, then another 31 ms to reach Trump.
For shot 1, Corey’s crack is at 1:18.657, so 1:18.688 for Trump.
For shot 2, Corey’s crack is at 1:19.513, so 1:19.544 for Trump.
Trump begins raising his hand at 1:19 + 20 frames, or between 1:19.833 and 1:19.875, or about 1.2 seconds after shot 1 and 0.3 seconds after shot 2.

So 1.2 s reaction time seems very long so I think that is shot 2 that hits Trump’s ear.

I don’t have a video player that will let me count frames while listening (I’ll have to work on that), but it sure as hell looks like Trump’s hand is almost at his ear if not right there when the 2nd shot happens.

All the commercial videos (Fox, NTD, RSBN, NewsNation, ABC) are in agreement. I just checked Fox’s version, and I stopped right at hearing the first shot, did frame advance for 27 frames (30 per second) at which point his hand was at his ear. I then ran the video again - AND HEARD THE SECOND SHOT, both the snap and bang.

I am now considering you a person who is being paid to be a “lone nutter” - someone who will stick to that view no matter how strong the evidence is. You will say “who you gonna believe, me or your lying eyes?”

In the case of the clot shots, you’d say, “trust the science” to people who personally knew 3 relatives and 5 close friends and coworkers who died or were disabled within a week after taking the shots.

Go away, troll.

[sonjax6]

@flamecensor

Do you have the whole RedTagVagabond video, to download? Thanks.

Not for download, no. I keep a pretty extensive list of bookmarks, and hope the videos don’t go away.

[flamecensor]

@sonjax6

Those witnesses that saw gunsmoke from the trees were pointing to the south, of course

Difficult to hear with extraneous noise, but big guy points North, saying “2 men shot.”
Thin guy, sunglasses, red singlet, I think, points East, even slightly toward the John Deere green tractor.
As I’ve typed before, Dayve’s phone heard 3 shots, sounding way North, as Trump was pushed into his car and driven away.
Also, I’m claiming that TOB and FlowerLady were hit, from behind(from South/Southeast) by fragments off of the ‘tvTrailerBox’, which is pictured again, in this “Where’s Katie?” video:

[flamecensor]

@phiphi-the-frenchie

For shot 1, Corey’s crack is at 1:18.657

1st time I put a ‘timer’ into a video, but I played it, heard first ‘snap’, hit the spacebar to pause, and timer said:
00:01:19.162
Hit spacebar to continue, saw Trump’s hand reach ear, hit spacebar to pause, and timer said:
00:01:19.830
0.668 second to react sounds good reaction time for an 80 year old.
Also, a hypothetical shot from Crooks to Trump could only have sailed West of the corner, and Crooks had no chance to hit the corner anyway, because ToughOldBird would have been rogered.
ToughOldBird was injured, but not rogered.

[phiphi-the-frenchie]

You’d be better off providing scientific arguments against what I’m saying rather than insulting me.
As for the passage about mRNA injections, know that I have been, from the beginning, a fierce opponent of these massive injections, the devastating side effects of which we are now seeing.

@sonjax6

I don’t have a video player that will let me count frames while listening

That’s the problem, by just listening you cannot be accurate because you have a reaction time.
I proceed like that and you can do the same:
I use Audacity to download the audio from a video. With it I can know very accurately the times of cracks and booms.
With QuickTime player I look at the video frame by frame and I count the frames following time marks (every second) and knowing the frame rate I can know the time with an uncertainty of 1 frame length.

[phiphi-the-frenchie]

What is your own reaction time to hit the spacebar after hearing a sound?

[roger-knight]

In this video Corey’s crack from shot 2 occurs at 00:01:19.663, and Trump is holding his ear with his hand.

Do you finally give up the claim that shot 2 hit Trump’s ear, or shall we continue wasting time on this?

[kincses-zsolt]

@roger-knight

Looking frame by frame, we can see the crack of the first shot at 00:00:38.071.

What is the source of the audio?
Did they use local mic or got electric connection to podium mic?

Great question — you’re digging into some real-world AV sync analysis, and you’re absolutely right to consider both sound propagation delay and processing/transmission delays depending on the setup.

Step 1: Sound Propagation Delay
So the ambient audio recorded from 300 ft away will lag behind the video by about 263 milliseconds due to sound propagation alone.

Step 2: Direct Audio Feed (Podium Mic)

If Analog:

• Analog audio cables (like XLR) introduce negligible latency — typically <1 ms.
• Audio and video can stay nearly perfectly in sync if the video is also transmitted analog.

If Digital:

• Digital processing introduces latency:
  • Analog-to-digital conversion (A/D): 1–5 ms
  • Digital processing or mixing: 5–20 ms
  • Network transmission (e.g., Dante, AVB): 1–10 ms
  • Digital-to-analog conversion (D/A): 1–5 ms
• So total delay can be in the range of 5–30 ms, possibly more in complex setups.

So, if audio came via a digital feed, you could expect 5–30 ms of delay — but this is far less than the 263 ms from ambient mic pickup at a distance.

Check whether mouth movements and spoken words are misaligned.

Yes, I was about to ask that.

You’re spot on — George H. W. Bush famously said, “Read my lips.” This was during his 1988 presidential campaign, and it became one of his signature lines.

@flamecensor

I think the North TV elevation gave Trump some protection from the Water Tower.

The tree line too.

@sonjax6

It’s well worth the read; there are a lot of details.

Long story short: “I’m not responsible, since I was NOT actually doing my job/assignment.”

This is not a valid defense in any functional organization. It essentially admits to dereliction of duty, while simultaneously attempting to dodge responsibility.

In well-run organizations, authority and accountability go hand in hand. If someone leads a team, they are accountable for its outcomes — even if they delegated work. Leadership isn’t just a title; it’s responsibility.

Even if someone wasn’t directly doing the task, being in a leadership role means owning the outcome. That’s basic accountability.

(And this is not unusual. - Parkinson’s law?)

You’re very close — but what you’re describing is not Parkinson’s Law, but rather the Peter Principle.

Parkinson’s Law

“Work expands to fill the time available for its completion.”

Peter Principle (the one you’re thinking of)

“In a hierarchy, every employee tends to rise to their level of incompetence.”

• Coined by Dr. Laurence J. Peter.
• The idea is that people are promoted based on success in their current role, not based on the skills required for the new one.
• Eventually, they reach a role they’re not competent at, and stay there — resulting in leadership positions being filled with people who aren’t effective.

@sonjax6

James Copenhaver says he was shot by the first bullet and we see his arm react at the time of the first shot.

More than a year after, I still don’t know.

• From podium video we might think the first bullet pinched Trump’s ear. But I’m not sure.
• From south bleacher video we might think the first bullet hit the corner of railing. Perhaps due to some magic audio lag/delay.
  Both cannot be the truth - at the same time.
  So I try to consider that the 2nd bullet grazed Trump’s ear. And maybe the “ouhh” was said since he heard the sonic boom. (Remember, on Corey’s footage a guy plugged his ears immediately.)

@roger-knight

Many participants in this forum struggle to accept that the first shot struck the corner of the bleachers. Some claim that Copenhaver’s arm was hit by the first shot, while others suggest the presence of a suppressed weapon—even though no such sound is detectable in any of the available audio recordings.

I still don’t know.

@roger-knight

either shot 1 grazed Trump’s ear at approximately 1:18:662, or it was shot 2 that did. Which of the two are you claiming?

I lean to say it was shot 2.

@roger-knight

We have multiple videos from different angles all confirming that the first shot hit the corner of the bleachers.

“Sounds” like that. But again, the sound propagation has some delay. So I think we heard the 1st shot sound while saw the impact of the 2nd one. It is possible.

@phiphi-the-frenchie

you will see that I think it’s shot 2 that hit Trump’s ear.

I started thinking that.

@flamecensor

designed to discourage reading.

I think so too.

@roger-knight

Looking frame by frame, we can see the crack of the first shot at 00:00:38.071.

But maybe he just heard the sonic boom of the 1st bullet very close.

@roger-knight

At this point, Trump is already covering his ear with his hand, which makes it impossible for this shot to have struck his ear.

However, the recorded audio might be off by hundred of milliseconds. We should clarify the audio source.

@sonjax6

(two of which are circled in blue). Then there’s another 4 feet from the post to Mr. Copenhaver.

But why his left arm injured? Why the left one?

@sonjax6

but it sure as hell looks like Trump’s hand is almost at his ear if not right there when the 2nd shot happens.

Based on the soundtrack? That might be off by hundred milliseconds.

@sonjax6

“who you gonna believe, me or your lying eyes?”

ears instead?

@sonjax6

I keep a pretty extensive list of bookmarks

Unfortunatelly the playlists gets renumbered.
I posted several links, then I saw they point to different list items. So I should have to remove the list reference from the links.

@roger-knight

Do you finally give up the claim that shot 2 hit Trump’s ear

In case of Corey’s footage the sound source is the phone’s mic. We can consider the sound propagation delay. (But his phone was in custody, and a half of second is magically missing between shot 3 and 4.)

[phiphi-the-frenchie]

Sorry for you but I have again verified and I maintain the following:

@phiphi-the-frenchie

My reasoning is different:
The bullet takes 146 ms to travel from Crooks to Corey, then another 31 ms to reach Trump.
For shot 1, Corey’s crack is at 1:18.657, so 1:18.688 for Trump.
For shot 2, Corey’s crack is at 1:19.513, so 1:19.544 for Trump.
Trump begins raising his hand at 1:19 + 20 frames, or between 1:19.833 and 1:19.875, or about 1.2 seconds after shot 1 and 0.3 seconds after shot 2.

[flamecensor]

My

@phiphi-the-frenchie

own reaction time to hit the spacebar

is unknown, imprecise, but the imprecision is close enough to equal for each of my 2 spacebar tap events.
So the time difference of
0.668 second is a good estimate of the time Trump needed to make an animal reaction to his injury.
After re-watching many times, I also think that

1. Trump heard the rail impact behind his head
2. Corey heard shots from Northeast behind him, because his camera work became agitated before shots you heard.
3. your 146 millisecond judgement has no basis in reality…you simply guessed a ~800 meter/second bullet speed, saw Corey-to-Crooks distance ~118 meters, and made a calculation based on information you didn’t have, and never will have.

[roger-knight]

@kincses-zsolt

I lean to say it was shot 2.

I have a very simple and straightforward way to prove that Trump is covering his ear during Shot 2:

Download this YouTube video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ejfAkzjEhk

Add timestamps with this command:

.\ffmpeg -i "Shots fired at Trump rally.mp4" -vf "drawtext=text='%{pts\:hms}':x=10:y=140:fontsize=24:fontcolor=yellow:box=1:boxcolor=black@0.5" -c:a copy "Shots fired at Trump rally with timestamps.mp4"

Add a waveform panel with this command:

.\ffmpeg -i "Shots fired at Trump rally with timestamps.mp4" -filter_complex "[0:v]scale=1280:-2, pad=1280:ih+500:0:0:black[base]; [0:a]showwaves=s=1280x500:mode=line:colors=white[wf]; [base][wf]overlay=0:H-h[v]" -map "[v]" -map 0:a -c:v libx264 -pix_fmt yuv420p -c:a copy "Shots fired at Trump rally with timestamps and waveform.mp4"

Extract the key frames:

.\ffmpeg.exe -ss 00:00:36 -to 00:00:40 -i "Shots fired at Trump rally with timestamps and waveform.mp4" frame_10%04d.png

Unlike @phiphi-the-frenchie, you know how to download a YouTube video and use ffmpeg.

If you run the three commands above, you only need to check one frame—Shot 2 at 00:00:38.906 (frame_100088.png).

The yellow arrow marks the crack from Shot 2. This example is clear because there are no delays: the bullet passes right by Trump’s microphone, so the crack sound is heard almost instantaneous.

ChatGPT confirms:

The crack is not truly instantaneous; it always arrives at the speed of sound. But if the bullet passes extremely close to the microphone, the delay is so tiny (fractions of a millisecond) that it can be considered practically immediate.

Do you agree with the above?

[flamecensor]

@kincses-zsolt

a half of second is magically missing between shot 3 and 4.)

I thought it was more than 1/2 second missing but, however much was missing, it’s because Corey’s phone heard the 3 tonal percussive shots(1 @ B Major, 2 @ E Major) aimed at Hercules2.
Other editing: the pixels in the margins left and right are blurred…Copenhaver’s stomach shot reaction ends in blurred pixels East.

[phiphi-the-frenchie]

@flamecensor

is unknown, imprecise, but the imprecision is close enough to equal for each of my 2 spacebar tap events.

What a nice scientific and accurate method, I am impressed!

@flamecensor

your 146 millisecond judgement has no basis in reality…you simply guessed a ~800 meter/second bullet speed, saw Corey-to-Crooks distance ~118 meters, and made a calculation based on information you didn’t have, and never will have.

Where do you see I use these 146 ms?
I use 31 ms for the time for the bullet to go from Corey to Trump and even if the bullet’s speed is different this time will vary only of 10 ms for a 30% error and my reasoning won’t change.

[flamecensor]

@phiphi-the-frenchie

Where do you see I use these 146 ms?

You typed that yesterday:

@phiphi-the-frenchie

The bullet takes 146 ms to travel from Crooks to Corey,

[phiphi-the-frenchie]

Are you doing this on purpose or are you stupid?

[phiphi-the-frenchie]

Are the data I give for Comperatore’s video correct, yes or no?