The Abandonment Of Posts In The Overwatch Building Is Difficult To Accept

[brian60221]

I’m not sure what’s going on here, but I’m worried that there’s another attempt going on to distract us. When they talk about silo’d communications, I say “Did it prevent Hercules 1 from talking with USSS command? No? Then let’s deal with that later.”

When they say “lots of the agents were unprepared”, I say “did the unprepared agents enter AGR 6 and prevent Nicol and Murcko from doing anything during the shooting? No? Then let’s deal with that later.”

A lot of this stuff is coming from Josh Hawley. I’m starting to suspect that Hawley has made himself unreachable by people who know what’s going on, or that he’s a bad judge of what information is important, or he’s simply working for the other team and wants us to think that there was some systemic issue instead of specific individuals doing highly questionable things. Edit: by my count, Hawley is on strike 2.

[vegaspatriot]

While I agree with you on the relative importance of information, I respectfully disagree with you on “Then let’s deal with that later.” Having decades of experience doing and giving training on incident investigation and analysis, I see every detail as being needed to paint the whole picture of what happened and why, and that includes both causal and contributing factors. Put another way, the Mona Lisa would not be the painting it is without her smile, to be sure, but you also need her eyes to understand her smile. You could not tell the whole story in the painting without her eyes.

I am still working on my detailed analysis of the timeline of events while Crooks was on the AGR property before climbing on the roof. This is one of my summary slides (hot off the press) that focuses on the reporting of a suspicious person. In the game of cat and mouse, the cat doesn’t stand a chance when you give the mouse a whopping head start. That, to me, has a high relative importance in the grand scheme of things, along with other causal factors.

Taking a more granular look at a specific text message exchange through 4 layers of the command structure, we see where it took 15 minutes to get critical information to command. That explains a latter portion of the time delay.

Another chunk of that time falls squarely on Nicol’s shoulders. He obviously knows it judging by the way he’s trying to cover his ass and deflect the blame.

TXT at “17:38 – {Nicol} sends text to group text to Sniper Group about suspect”

Witness Interview – “’The first thing I did, I sent those pictures out [Fact: It was 24 minutes later, 5:14 pm to 5:38 pm.], we had a text group between the local snipers that were on the scene. I sent those pictures out to that group and advised them of what I noticed and what I’d seen,’ Nicol said. 'There was a text back that said, ‘Call it into command.’ I then called into our to the command via radio. And they acknowledged.’ ‘I assumed that there would be somebody coming out to – you know, to speak with this individual or, you know, find out what’s going on,’ he added.” (Source: ABC)

[redranamber]

@sgt-raven

If it wasn’t in shot #9 then It had to be shot #10 from the other side. We’re not going to get some movie perfect close up shot hitting the stock. So I will make a SWAG at what happened to it.

@kincses-zsolt

I try to get some pictures.

I think we’re in line here, the 9th shot could not have taken that chunk out of the stock by that LEO in the manner we are presented, it either came from another direction or it was from the other sniper shot or some other unknown option. Either way we cannot really be sure. And I really thought the pieces had come together for me, thinking on what you guys had said, I had looked at the entry/exit wounds, and thought that it made perfect sense for the 10th shot exiting his neck to have also pierced the stock, as that is very near where the stock would be pressed to his shoulder. Then it struck me, Thomas had turned to the west and faced the crowd. How did the kill shot from Hercules hit him in the face and exit his neck? What is actually even going on here?

@kincses-zsolt

And there is a shot to his leg, without bood or gore.

This is something I actually haven’t seen yet; do you have a source link or photo? Would genuinely like to know more about this, because a shot to the leg would definitely make someone react a little funny, might take a minute to recoil and regain himself from, and then I imagine he would swivel to address the most immediate threat, whether that was in the crowd to the West or from inside one of those 2nd story windows I’m not really sure.

[kincses-zsolt]

@redranamber

do you have a source link or photo?

There was a better picture, I’ll try to find.

[vegaspatriot]

This one?

[kincses-zsolt]

@stewart-pedersen

I am looking at what I see is a bullet wound to Crooks right leg. Entry above calf and below knee

I found this.

[vegaspatriot]

The thing that gets me is this appears to be postmortem shot, after the heart stopped pumping, which according to a doctor in this forum would be a few minutes after a head shot severed the spinal cord, if it did. None of the sound analysis is addressing this likely shot. It’s doubtful that it would have been one of the 10 shots clearly heard. So it must be a highly suppressed shot, right? For now, it’s a conundrum.

[rough_country_gypsy]

This does beg the question…why is Trump not using his own specialized security team? I’ve seen multiple former military personnel (who provide security details for other diplomats all around the world) claim they would protect Trump for free and no one would touch him (all he has to do is call). Those would be my guys. Former SEALS and RANGERS who are already in the protection business full-time.

[vegaspatriot]

At the very least, have his own counter-surveillance team as Bongino is so adamant about the Secret Service not providing him. Right?

[redranamber]

@vegaspatriot

The thing that gets me is this appears to be postmortem shot, after the heart stopped pumping, which according to a doctor in this forum would be a few minutes after a head shot severed the spinal cord, if it did. None of the sound analysis is addressing this likely shot. It’s doubtful that it would have been one of the 10 shots clearly heard. So it must be a highly suppressed shot, right? For now, it’s a conundrum.

And yet a conundrum that adds many more questions to a seemingly endless list of questions without concrete answers.

Assuming this to be postmortem shot, cui bono, to whom is it a benefit? If he is already clearly dead, what point is there to take a shot at his leg, of all things? What can anyone gain from something like this?

I do recall in one of the bwc videos something standing out to me, in BWC2-122110, at 15:45 video time, 18:15:47 bwc time, you can clearly make out someone yelling directions at Thomas, presumably already dead, but still, “LET ME SEE YOUR HANDS!”, clear as day. And I can make out some form of instruction before that, but I can’t quite hear it well enough, but the phrase “Let me see your hands!” is repeated many times clearly audibly, and I believe most likely many times that are being distorted with the other audio around the camera.

And that begs the question, were he to not comply (because clearly, he couldn’t even if he wanted to), do you think first on scene law enforcement would fire upon him, eventually?

[vegaspatriot]

All valid questions. If I wasn’t already consumed by my other analyses I would take this on.

[sgt-raven]

@kincses-zsolt

Actually it was the first time the countersnipers appear at former president’s rally.
Now we learn that they were not from secret service but homeland security.

The USSS CS teams have Police in large letters and Secret Service below in smaller letters on their plate carriers patches. This is clearly visable in pictures of them on the ground after the shooting.

It would be highly unusual in the US, for one agency to wear another agencies patches.

You have shown a pic of the rifle you carried in the Army, which is not a US Army firearm. I don’t know what country you’re in, but I doubt it is the USA. As such you may not understand the way things are done here.

[bigtim]

@kincses-zsolt

No evidence the LEO’s shot hit the rifle.

@jbrayali

I have not been able to see any bullet damage on the rifle the FBI has shared images of online

Magpul CTR stock is made of a hard polymer. I’ve never seen a broken one but I envision a really hard impact would shatter a section. This broken stock is exactly what my mind would envision if one were shot with a rifle. In the absence of any other explanation of how it became broken in those moments, a gunshot is the a consistent and not inconsistent explanation.

Looking at the best images from the rooftop rifle, I can make out the color variance and the chunk missing where it was broken.

@redranamber

Look at where the damage is on the rifle, and where that rifle damage would sit pressed to his right shoulder in prone position. How would an ESU officer anywhere to his left, like the field to near the red barns, hit that spot on his rifle without penetrating Crooks’ body in any way? I honestly cannot even fathom a shot from ANY angle hitting that rifle stock and not Crooks himself, but I do very much welcome any evidence to refute my assumption.

It’s speculation at best on how Crooks was exactly holding the rifle when shot, and the angle the bullet came from. One pure speculation, if he had the rifle in a prone aiming position with his cheek on the rear of the stock, similar but maybe more exaggerated than we see in pictures, and a bullet came from his 1 or 2 o’clock, said bullet could obliterate the stock and enter his mouth and exit the back of his neck.

But there’s a bunch of possibilities of the rifle being in different positions (not against his shoulder) and bullet might have come from different direction than frontal… or the shot from the south but he’s turned at an 90 degree angle. Here’s him turning right before he was shot. Bullet from the south might have missed him but clipped the rear top of the stock.

[bigtim]

My best speculation.

1. The amount of blood loss suggests he was incapacitated but not dead immediately, maybe not for minutes. The injury was clearly fatal, but perhaps not immediately fatal. Might have laid there semi-conscious for minutes.

2. First team on the roof may have observed him injured, bleeding, but “non-compliant” to “show me your hands,” and “throw aside the weapon.” And a shot for good measure, especially if he moved at all. Or to “see if he’s dead.” Morbid and probably against policy. But reality.

That might explain what appears to be a bloodless gunshot wound to the leg.

[bigtim]

@kincses-zsolt

Actually it was the first time the countersnipers appear at former president’s rally.

That’s a bit misleading if true. Current Presidents doing anything including election campaigns are going to have counter-snipers. Pretty sure I’ve seen them before.

This is unique b/c Mr. Trump is a former President but not the current President. I suspect this is the first instance since the invention of the SS that a former President is running for re-election but not the current President at the time. No other POTUS in my life or in a century had a break in office and 2 non-consecutive terms.

@rough_country_gypsy

This does beg the question…why is Trump not using his own specialized security team? I’ve seen multiple former military personnel (who provide security details for other diplomats all around the world) claim they would protect Trump for free and no one would touch him (all he has to do is call). Those would be my guys. Former SEALS and RANGERS who are already in the protection business full-time.

Since his 2016 election I’ve wondered this myself. It wasn’t a hard prediction that, given their negative TDS hysterics and outright threats towards him (the Giffords beheading, the calls for violence, the bogus investigations, the impeachments, his 2020 run, the hatred, the false prosecutions, etc.) they’d be going for an assassination. I think Tucker Carlson publicly stated as much a year ago. So it was not a hard line to draw in my view.

I’ve thought for many many years now he should have hired at least his own small team to be oversight, closest to him, etc. And why it’s taken so long to get ballistic glass panels surrounding him on stage is a mystery. Something he should have done in 2016 or so. He has just been a standing target for many years on stages nationwide.

[sorey]

@kincses-zsolt @redranamber
The picture shows his leg position after they rolled him over at timestamp 18:17:57 (in order to put him handcuffs on).
His leg position beforehand was first captured by BWC2-122110 at timestamp 18:17:02

This is the position of Ben Shaffer [Edit: it’s not Ben but most likely Matthew, Officer at Cecil Township Police] (Washington Regional SWAT, in blue) and ? (Butler ESU, in camouflage)

This would have been their view

[sgt-raven]

@bigtim

First team on the roof may have observed him injured, bleeding, but “non-compliant” to “show me your hands,” and “throw aside the weapon.” And a shot for good measure, especially if he moved at all. Or to “see if he’s dead.” Morbid and probably against policy. But reality.

I don’t see anyone carrying a suppressed small caliber pistol. If their rifle is suppressed, it is not ‘movie quiet’ suppressed. No recording has come out with that late shot on it. IMO, someone, LEO or not would have mentioned a shot that late.

[bigtim]

1. Was anyone recording that late, possibly many minutes later?
2. Whether pistol or rifle, looks like the shot entered the upper calf, blew out thru the knee. So it would have come from his rear, the access point to the roof where the police were staging to climb.

I have no other info or ideas.

[macd]

If that is a gunshot wound to his right leg from close range, shouldn’t we be looking for another casing and/or bullet on the roof?

[vegaspatriot]

@sorey

This is the position of Ben Shaffer (Washington Regional SWAT, in blue) and ? (Butler ESU, in camouflage

Seriously? I never figured one of the ESU counter-snipers as one of the officers accessing the roof after the shooting. He came a long ways from the grandstands if that’s him. And he would have to stow is rifle, not leave it setup out in the open. Are you sure that’s Ben Shaffer?