First, Do you notice you are the only person posting in bold? Second, you are clearly uninformed. DO you know how many people get the flu in a given year in the US? what % of the population? do you know the complication rate? the death rate?
Do you know there is no inherent immunity to this virus, which means 30-60% of the population or more can get this in one season? do you know what that would look like with the 1% complication rate in the medical community? what if it is the 5% that you say is so low on the cruise? that is 20x more hospitalizations. But I assure you its not 5% complication rate on the cruise due to lag - it takes people up to- 3-4 weeks to develop serious illness… Some of those counts were infected a day ago - a week ago?? its just starting to blow up… What we know its at least 5%… with it only able to trend up… So., this is not close to flu… this could be 50-100x as many people needing treatment as the flu in a given year… additionally. the hospital time and duration of the flu - is 3-14 days… This is 3-5 weeks and perhaps longer… so you wont be freeing any beds for the next wave… Please put the puzzle pieces together… and stop thinking like the media and officials who of course dont want you to know the truth … what would that achieve? So, that is why you dont know… you are sheeple… the only way you can help yourself is to go beyond numbers - and try to understand what this is and its not the flu and how it works… and why there are no vaccines for coronavirus… and how second and third infections are possible and how much damage this virus causes to the body even if you survive , you can be permanently disabled. Please wake up - go do something other than starring at numbers till brain is numb…
Thank you for your important work.
I’ll admit that many of the conversations here give the appearance we are all giving into fear Andy, but in my opinion its not fear but the natural tendencies humans have to focus on a new “shiny thing”. We often go a little overboard, be it a health threat or the Blues hockey team winning the Stanley Cup. As a St Louis resident, that got a little crazy I can tell you. And I’m not even a hockey fan.
That said, I look at my preparations for this, like car insurance. I pay about $600US a year for coverage. I’ve not had a serious accident in 30 years. So statistically I could drop my insurance and probably be ok.
I give this virus perhaps a 25% chance it will seriously affect the medical side of society. Maybe higher in a few local situations. My chance of getting it, probably 50/50. Even at 62, my chance of having serious enough complications to need a hospital, less than 10%. I’m luckily pretty healthy and fit.
And yet, I have still spent about $1500 over the past month on re-filling my deep pantry and brings by resources back up to where I had them in the 80s when I was a serious prepper.
Do I think that money is ill spent? No.
Do I think that the time I’ve spent learning about this subject is ill spent? No.
There are many dangers and situation where I could find myself in an emergency. And everything I’ve done so far is just like my car insurance. There if or when I need it.
I’m honestly more worried about supply chain problems. I was screwed pretty badly by the 2008 financial crisis, and I have little to no belief that the government has any clue how to deal with the fall out that will cause. I expect that the short sighted idiots that make up the financial industry will make every mistake they can and then come running to the politicians to bail them out of their stupidity.
So I’m watching this situation closely, but I’m still getting ready to have a concrete pad pour two weeks from now, to then have a garden shed and workshop built in my backyard this Spring.
Now I’m going to go visit friends and have lunch, though one of them is a RN and I’m going to get her to show me how to us my new oximeter and blood pressure cuff, lol.
Lets assume that this has a high R0 its pretty well proven to be very high - But lets assume it is high-enough to go pandemic ( R 1.5 ) just a bit higher than the flu - No virus with this high an R 0 has ever been contained. Lets look at what the CDC even said yesterday.
The virus is not widespread in our community "YET", it is a possibility , even likely that it will be in the future.lets then assume that - more than 8-10% of the population rate will catch this as the flu each year because there no inherent immunity. so lets assume 30-50% of people get this the first year? what does that look like? compared to the flu? lets assume this has at least the complication rate if not much much higher as your "low cruise" numbers suggest. What does that look like with that infection rate? Do you know how many hospital beds are available in per capita in the US? I can tell you its less than half that was in the 1960 and ranked 80th country in the world. Did you know our medical system in the US is already over-burdened and cannot survive the burden of a second flu. ? what will that look like? Do you know what it will look like when there is no way to get IV fluilds , a hospital bed, oxygen.. and no chance whatever to get a respiratory ventilator required for the associated ARDS. Do you know where 97% of our antibiotics are made? syringes? gloves? facemasks? IV bags? Do you know, that with just 6 weeks of shuttering in china, our big box stores announced that the shelves will be empty by april? auto parts , medical equipment and just about everthing within arms reach of you including your coffee cup and computer and phone are all made in china. That stuff is not going to be available and if you can get it - you will pay 4 times the price. Now put the picture together, mass amounts of people sick all at the same time, unable to get through the door at your local hospital .. people dying on the sidewalks and basic supplies not being available.. That is the future .. You better get used to it.. and there will be no quarantines in the US - we do not have the ability and people will not do it. and we have guns.. so people will not go quietly when there is no supplies hospital care and food available.. This is all a best case scenario at this time.. really. i do not want to predict the future.. but this is it. the govt in the US is assuring it by pulling a wuhan II here. but they have an agenda.. OUR world is going to be forever changed. I assure this.
I am not a doctor, and I don’t play one on TV. But, I want to pass along a medical suggestion given to me to cut and loosen phlegm.
Alavera juice. About 3 tablespoons or more to 8 oz. glass of grape juice or dark colored koolaid (the alavera has a bitter taste).
Had to repeatedly take a family member to the hospital because he would react to cold fronts coming in by getting deep bronchitis. Nurse told me to put him on alavera.
When he would start to react to the allergen the front brought in, I would put him on alavera. Never had to take him to the hospital again.
Fair warning…it loosens everything up and cleans you out.
Hope this helps.
I haven’t seen this reported on this forum so maybe I missed it, but have you all seen the report (It was on the CNN home page) about a student at Rensselaer Poly that was found dead in his room from the flu? He was Chinese. Wouldn’t that set off alarm bells? For instance, maybe we should test him for Covid-19? The other weird thing is they showed a picture of the coronavirus (the round spiky ball you see everywhere) and I thought the flu was not a coronavirus and not a round spiky ball. But they are only reporting it as influenza.
Coronavirus: Iran now says 6th person dead of Covid-1
So far, 28 cases have been confirmed in Iran, including at least five of the six who died. People are being treated for the virus in at least four different cities, including the capital, Tehran, where some pharmacies had already run out of masks and hand sanitizer. Other cities are Qom, Arak and Rasht. https://www.khaleejtimes.com/coronavirus-outbreak/coronavirus-iran-now-says-6th-person-dead-of-covid-19Sorry, can’t post a link, but just read a CNN article that said the IRS will be sending door to door employees to people with 6 figure incomes and who file late. Reminding them to file on time this year. Very weird. Now we not only have census potential spreaders but the IRS, too. Things are getting stranger and stranger.
My piddly taxes are done and in the box. Going grey.
My strategy: determine the low traffic times for the businesses I may need to visit; post office, bank, grocery, gas station, hardware. Less people contact. Also, know the big delivery days when they are stocked up. I usually go the following day as not so many delivery boxes in isles and product is stocked.
Food prep: In China raw vegetables are never eaten, word to the wise. I would say unless it’s something like an avocado with a tough, washable, outer husk, cook everything. I doubt if freezing will kill corona or most bacteria. Also, plastics. Think of all food you buy that is packaged in some form of plastic. Some chemicals in the formulation of plastics are made in China. If manufacturers can’t find packaging, you won’t get the product. Frozen foods, etc. etc…
What’s exactly is going on with the outbreak of COVID 19 in Iran? That country does not have very deep connections with China. They do with Russia but Russia isn’t a vector source.
Wiki notes that one of the smallest Chinese populations outside China is the community in Iran numbering just 2 to 3 thousand people. And yet they are surging to the top of the list with multiple infection zones.
I was just reading that most major cities in Iran are currently experiencing viral outbreaks and honestly let’s just pause for a second and ask how that might have come about when Egypt has a single case and a very busy Asian hub like Dubai are reporting four but those were all a single family from Wuhan.
To me this is more evidence of the militarization of this virus. And so it’s not really a big surprise that South Korean cases are exploding which presumptively implies neighboring North Korea is going to join them very soon.
My wife works closely with the head medical editor of the CDC’s publication Emerging Infectious Diseases https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/ A friend is an editor there.
He gave me this website http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/ They have just started a Covid-19 Resource Center http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19
im not sure where to post this question… will triggering the pandemic bond threshold send the stock market bubble down?? I’m a super stock market newbie and trying to figure out what I should do with my Roth (I’m 38) but just keep thinking that deaths at 2500 triggering those funds released are going to set some whistles off… no?
I live in Nebraska, work on the same campus where the Federal Quarantine Center is located, and my house is within 10 miles from the Army National Guard camp that entertained 57 people who were potential coronavirus carriers. After 2 weeks the 57 were released, all reporting negative for the virus. Of the 13 who were initially put in the Quarantine Center, 11 are positive; 3 moved to the Biocontainment unit since the exhibited symptoms. I have great faith in the medical professionals who work these specialized units since they train year round…successfully treated Ebola patients a few years ago. But…I’m not sure we know everything about the etiology of the virus, and what if two weeks of quarantine isn’t long enough? So for now, we have a household protocol to sanitize hands with gel before entering the house, and washing hands often. Also adding to the pantry “just in case.”
…heifer had a bull calve… 27 abound, only 1 lost.
thanks, robie
Nairobi, I was just thinking about the same about the possibility that it is a militarized “thing”. The only difference in my mind was that North Korea is hit very badly (all is censured) and that it now have crossed the border to the south.
dtrammel wrote,
That said, I look at my preparations for this, like car insurance. I pay about $600US a year for coverage. I’ve not had a serious accident in 30 years. So statistically I could drop my insurance and probably be ok.Some wag defined statistics as "the art of going wrong with confidence." Please consider. My car was going just great, bought in early 2011, nothing wrong with it at all, excellent value for money, quite possibly another 9 years' life left in it, all of this factored into my forward budget estimates, when a few weeks ago a hailstorm described as "vicious" swept in a narrow band across parts of Canberra and wrought havoc upon buildings and vegetation and 20 to 30,000 motor vehicles My car was a total loss. The insurers paid me out and now I have a shiny, newer replacement vehicle which promises well, but what if the insurers weren't able to pay my claim, or if they refused to pay, or if no replacement vehicle were available? The second-hand car market became extremely busy! A statistician told me a while back that EVERYTHING has an error rate. Obvious when one thinks about it. Like many PPers my little household is making preparations, one of which is elderberry syrup. We bought some packets of dehydrated berries, one of which is imported from Poland. Oz is at the far end of some l-o-n-g supply chains! If there is an indigenous substitute, it hasn't come to light yet, and I fear that it may have come to grief under some housing or agribusiness "development". Part of our self-insurance here is to stock up on alternatives to elderberries, of which there's a few. Yes, what are the odds?
Hi Mesquite, Welcome to PP! Thanks for the info. Would you please confirm that the juice you used was “Alavera” or “Aloe Vera”? I hadn’t heard of “alavera” so wanted to make sure. Thanks! 
Great Question. Your olfactory system is created to shut off the latest smell after about 20 minutes. It is created as part of your defense system. If you smell something dangerous and your system is not cleared, you may not smell the next danger, or opportunity I should add. Think of the antelope and the lion who have much better olfactory sense than we do.
Just because you do not smell the EO does not mean its molecules are not active in your systems doing what they are good at.
So the takeaway? When manufacturers add chemicals to make smells last longer they are hurting you (think Plug-ins.) That said, your body will metabolize the essential oils so you may need to repeat them several times a day depending on what you are trying to accomplish. but it usually is only a drop or two that you need with high-quality oils (which are all you want to use). Inhalation by running a diffuser is a great way to use them and it does not need to run constantly to be effective.
Hope this helps.
Not sure what to make of this.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/federal-judge-blocks-effort-transfer-coronavirus-patients-california-city-n1140786
i think they realized the setting was inappropriate for a quarantine. But wonder if they are running out of room on bases…