Thank you for posting that link msnrochny. So this returns me to the post I wrote earlier in the thread that the real risk inherent in COVID 19 is actually the opportunistic bacterial infections that follow the onset of catching a virus.
That means that for all intents and purposes there is very little difference between the end of life outcomes for a Corona virus patient and a person dying of AIDS.
Both ultimately will succumb to respiratory failure caused by bacterial infections in their lungs.
Ergo, our preparations to guard our own health need to be on reducing bacterial risks or learning to manage the symptoms once they appear.
You should take your own advice friend.
In addition to PP.com, my two other most trusted sources of information about the coronavirus pandemic are Dr. Roger Seheult at MedCram and Dr. John Campbell.
Dr. Campbell did two Q&A’s yesterday which have been summarized by poster Xabier at Our Finite World as follows:
Estimated timeline for spread: 1/Establishment of serious community infection nearly everywhere... – over the next month or so. 2/ Likely peak of contagion – June/July. 3/ At least 60% of the population will be exposed. Children will be excellent ‘super-spreaders’,as on the whole it appears they will mostly not feel sick or even have any symptoms at all. 4/ Good idea to get thermometer and oximeter to monitor your condition at home. Only way to limit exposure and give yourself the best chance – apart from excellent hygiene – is to self-isolate as much as possible starting NOW. Avoid public toilets.
Has anyone seen thorough and easy to read data relating to length of time between seeking medical attention and developing a serious outcome, as broken down by gender?
Not all, but many Western men seem to resist or delay visiting a health professional when possible.
I’m wondering - is a delay visiting a doctor noticed in Chinese or other Asian cultures? Could a delay seeking medical advice/help influence the disparity between the number of males vs females who go on to develop serious complications?
Obviously, an over-run hospital system affects this and clouds so many other aspects. In light of the new report that says 61.5% of severe pneumonia sufferers die and if you do catch this, is quick action meaningful?
Just mulling over how actions can influence outcome.
So from the latest study implying about two thirds of critical patients die we can for the first time make a decent clinical death rate prediction.
With the study of over 60k cases saying 81% of the infections are mild, 14% severe and 5% critical; And this study saying 60% of critical patients will die, the implied CFR rate is 3% (60% of 5%).
Honestly, seems a little on the low side considering the situation in Wuhan. Especially since the zerohedge post specifically states: “The researchers concluded that COVID-19 - or SARS-CoV-2, as they call it - is more lethal for vulnerable patients than SARS or MERS was.”
Still, i think the 3% number has merit because it can be clinically proven. So can we agree that the Best Case Scenario here is a minimum death rate of 3%? I think that isn’t a wrong conclusion to draw since the research pertains to early patients - after all they needed time to study them and the patients needed time to go into the critical stage - meaning we can state with relative certainty (meaning beyond reasonable doubt) “If hospitals are not overloaded and all possible care is available, 3% of all cases will die.”
The more I’ve recommended this stuff over the years, the more the price has gone up, at a rate faster than the rate of inflation. I’ve been recommending the original black elderberry syrup, Sambucol, for many years. I think I first recommended it on this site about 10 years ago. It’s a proprietary extract developed by a virologist named Madeleine Mumcuoglu. My recollection of its history is a little fuzzy but I thought that on the original packaging’s labeling, it had said she was Romanian. Now it says she’s Israeli. So perhaps she is of Romanian ancestry and emigrated to Israeli. It doesn’t really matter but that change did catch my attention. The sweetener has also changed over the years. In addition, the company has been under different ownerships. It may have been under Israeli ownership at one time but I’m not sure. It’s labeled as a Product of France now but manufactured for and distributed by a US entity. The entire evolution of ownership and formulation was recorded in boxes I had saved over the years but I tossed them when I retired, so now that information is lost to me.
Any way, I’ve tried and recommended different formulations over the years and have always come back to this one because family, friends, and patients have always have the best success with this one. I typically double dose for the first two days of a suspected viral infection (taking it at the very earliest signs) and then taper off and discontinue after a week to 10 days. It’s been my go-to treatment for viral infections such as colds and flus and I’ve been remarkably disease free for decades until this fall when I happened to let my supply run out and came down with an infection for about 2 weeks, worse than anything I can remember having had since young adulthood. My wife was out of commission with this bug for a month, worse than I’d ever seen her. We both commented that this was a very unusual infection since I never get sick and she very rarely gets sick. NB - we have excellent nutrition. Knowing the history of how the US government has experimented on its population with various infectious agents, unbeknownst to the populations, I wondered if this one was one of those examples. If I recall correctly, the city of St. Paul, MN, for example, has purposely been exposed to infections on at least two occasions to study the spread of the disease through the populace.
Just as an aside, a little secret I learned over the years is that veterinary medicine often leads human medicine. For example, I learned about using lasers for tendon injuries from a veterinary publication, before laser was ever approved for that use in humans by the FDA. I learned about elderberry extracts here:
https://web.archive.org/web/20110721111803/http://www.mivelle.hu/sambucol/Effect%20in%20Chimpanzees.pdf
The effect of Sambucol, a black elderberry-based, natural product, on the production of human cytokines: I. Inflammatory cytokines.
Author information
Abstract
Sambucus nigra L. products - Sambucol - are based on a standardized black elderberry extract. They are natural remedies with antiviral properties, especially against different strains of influenza virus. Sambucol was shown to be effective in vitro against 10 strains of influenza virus. In a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized study, Sambucol reduced the duration of flu symptoms to 3-4 days. Convalescent phase serum showed a higher antibody level to influenza virus in the Sambucol group, than in the control group. The present study aimed to assess the effect of Sambucol products on the healthy immune system - namely, its effect on cytokine production. The production of inflammatory cytokines was tested using blood - derived monocytes from 12 healthy human donors. Adherent monocytes were separated from PBL and incubated with different Sambucol preparations i.e., Sambucol Elderberry Extract, Sambucol Black Elderberry Syrup, Sambucol Immune System and Sambucol for Kids. Production of inflammatory cytokines (IL-1 beta, TNF-alpha, IL-6, IL-8) was significantly increased, mostly by the Sambucol Black Elderberry Extract (2-45 fold), as compared to LPS, a known monocyte activator (3.6-10.7 fold). The most striking increase was noted in TNF-alpha production (44.9 fold). We conclude from this study that, in addition to its antiviral properties, Sambucol Elderberry Extract and its formulations activate the healthy immune system by increasing inflammatory cytokine production. Sambucol might therefore be beneficial to the immune system activation and in the inflammatory process in healthy individuals or in patients with various diseases. Sambucol could also have an immunoprotective or immunostimulatory effect when administered to cancer or AIDS patients, in conjunction with chemotherapeutic or other treatments. In view of the increasing popularity of botanical supplements, such studies and investigations in vitro, in vivo and in clinical trials need to be developed.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11399518
The Sambucus is OK but, in my experience, not as good as the Sambucol. It was produced as a way around the proprietary Sambucol formulation. And the pills, gummies, and so on don’t seem to work very well. The syrups, for whatever reason, work better.
I hate to put too much of my energy into the biowarfare theory of this but then I read your post and this one, added to the information Chris and Adam are providing, as well as other members, and I am dumbfounded. I prefer to be optimistic as all costs, but we are at the entrance of a tunnel and we are not sure where or when the light will show up at the other end. Damn.
https://www.drtomreed.com/post/coronavirus-update-2-buckle-up
Yes, this is true! My 25 year old daughter went on twice daily elderberry syrup 2 weeks ago and has developed severe swelling of the joints in her fingers. This article just taught us the probable cause. Thank you!
We have almost no military people on mainland China UNLESS we had a ship docked in Hong Kong or Macau.
You know, it could be coincidental, or she may have a particular issue with elderberries. It is not usual to have such a response to elderberry syrup.
https://www.thebeaverton.com/2020/02/cruise-lines-now-offer-deluxe-coronavirus-upgrade-over-basic-norovirus-package/
Could not help but laugh, sorry…
Jan
He is the most respected in this field in the country, his books and recommendations are great. He has helped so many, including me, I take his Lyme protocol and it is seriously helping. I bought his Herbal Antiviral book and highly recommend it. Also, go to his facebook page, Stephen Buhner, and he gives the protocol for corona virus right there for free – Lots of people say lots of things, some of which is likely useless or counterproductive, but for the herbs, Stephen Buhner is one you can trust.
Yes, there has been experience with this. It is actually not the best herb, but it is certainly helpful and available. Stephen Buhner addresses this in his book Herbal Antivirals. If you have a more detailed question, go over to his facebook page and ask him. But, do not put people off a readily available syrup that is helpful ( there are other herbs that should be added, such as Japanese knotweed, kudzu, but the elderberry is way better than nothing)
Thanks for posting that link to the excellent pairs skating. If you are an aficionado you must have seen what many consider the best ever ice dance performance. I’ve just realized that you probably have to be at least 50 to have seen it live as I did.
https://youtu.be/rc-0BCSyWtc
Thank you for that. One needs to have a sense of humor, even when faced with very serious situations. My father was joking even as he was dying. I hope I have the courage to do the same when my time comes.
Before I even read your post, as a goof, I was going to call up Princess and see how their agents were handling the corona virus issue. They proudly declare how they’re always there to help you but we ran into an issue a year ago and had to head to Columbia to catch a ship which we missed, through no fault of our own. It was a 5 day nerve wracking experience that people can hardly believe when we tell them. I’ll never forget the response of one of the four layers of entities we had to deal with for our travel insurance assistance: “You’re on your own.” When the chips are down, unfortunately, this often becomes the case. Government and corporate entities will tend to desert you.
dtrammel, hey I know this topic has probably been done to death on this blog and many others. Anyway, I’m not completely familiar with the ‘guaranteed fund’ but I would humbly suggest that you guys consider that in a currency crisis (our current trajectory), anything denominated in dollars or other fiat currencies may implode.