Kunga said: "Drive and act prudently, carefully, calmly and responsibly from now on. Incur no fines. Do not put a target on your back. No inflamitory Tshirts, masks, bumper stickers. Go grey."--- I would bet that the majority of regular members of this forum know what Kunga meant when they said "Go Grey" and what I mean by being "The Grey Man". For those of you who don't and for the people who have just found Peak Prosperity, "The Grey Man" refers to a set of actions and lifestyle changes which you do, when you are in a situation or environment which may be dangerous. The best camouflage is not standing out. I lived for a while in in Los Angeles, in a area of town that was a bit rough and the sound of the occasional gunfire would sound at night, a place that a older white male like myself was an oddity. And yet I walked to the store and the local market, did laundry and interacted with all the diverse people in my neighborhood without fear. I did this while working in the movie industry and making $80K a year because I never flaunted my money. I never looked like prey. To be a "Grey Man" (or Grey Woman) is to adopt the clothing style and daily habits of those around you, while never appearing to be someone the many predators in that neighborhood would think was worth the trouble to attack and rob. It also means not showing fear. If you need to, do a search of the term. Many prepper and survival sites have good articles on the term and concept. Why do I bring this up in the current crisis? Many of you are just finding out that to take care of yourself and your family means preparing now, instead of when its too late. To stock up now on food, water, medical supplies and all the other stuff that may be in short supply if this situation gets as bad as we all hope it doesn't. And supplies for even a small family can be a large amount of stuff. Even if the over all situation doesn't get very bad regionally or nationally, local conditions at times may. A large cluster of infections, a over loaded hospital and inept city government can all cause a chaotic and possibly lawless environment to appear for days or even weeks until the national government can reestablish control. Those kindly neighbors, those parents who go to your church with you or whose kids go to school with yours, when faced with their loved ones starving or getting ill and dying, won't hesitate for a second in forcing you, who has prepared, to give up what you have. Just like putting the empty box from your new 72" flat screen TV out with the trash, tells thieves you have something to steal, unloading from your car several dozen grocery bags piled high with food and supplies, carrying in a few 5 gallon cans of gasoline, or buying a new generator tells your neighbors you have stuff they may need when SHTF. They might not think about it now, but someone will later when they open the last can of soup in their cabinet. Be a bit stealthy as you stock up and prepare. Go to the grocery store on the way home every night this coming week (and maybe next week) and buy just enough that you can get out and walk right in to your home. Maybe take an early nap and go out in the middle of the night, or early morning before work to pick up stuff. Hide what you can in your basement, under your bed or in closets, so your kitchen doesn't appear over full. Be careful who you allow in your house for now. Lie and tell people your wife or kid isn't feeling well (or yourself). Don't be unfriendly but by the same token, don't go being the one flaunting wealth. When you talk to casual neighbors to see if they are concerned about the Corona virus and if they are thinking of preparing, be discreet. If they ask you, lie and tell them you aren't concerned and don't plan to. See who appears to get the danger and who doesn't. Those that do, might be ones to talk to privately later. I remember years ago, when nuclear war seemed a possibility, one guy said rather flippantly, "Well if it happens, I'll just come to your house." He might not have liked the reception he would have gotten, but too many people don't hesitate to take what they need anymore. If it does develop that people start getting ill, don't socialize. Definitely don't have a big barbecue on your back porch. Don't leave your house with your mask on, instead don it once you've driven away. If people come to your door, don't hide behind the door but talk to them in a guarded but friendly way. If you feel unease, just start coughing a bit. People will think you might be sick and leave you be. Dishonest yes, but then you are protecting yourself and your family. Sit down with your family and especially your children and bring them into the loop. Level with them about why you are preparing and why its important not to talk to their friends about it. Adopt the attitude of the Grey Man.
I have spoken about this with my wife - and how we may deal with this. She thinks we can get a few neigbors or neighborhood watch together when the looters come with picktruck and a gang of armed bandits… even if you are locked and loaded - you dont stand a chance of several envasions of 10-14 armed bandits… per day… looking for as much as a gallon of gas and a can of soup and what ever gold and jewelry you have… I am trying to think of what kind of mass weapon I can devise for such an attack… I am thinking of booby trapping the property… think of anything from some homemade grenades to acid bombs etc… I know this seems like it may be premature - but i think its inevitable, its not if - its when.
Deep breathes Nordicjack. Nobody is coming for your soup. Especially not pickup trucks full several times a day.
I can tell you have never been to Nairobi. Getting robbed there is just a normal day to day thing. Kind of like a bothersome rash that never goes away.
But you get used to it. Stuff is not really that important. If you want your freedom, just give everything away. You won’t need to defend anything after that.
Very interesting new video from Chris. As well as the significance for the heart, I wonder if the fact that there are ACE 2 receptors in the small intestine explain the possible association of infection spread and buffets mentioned in one thread.
Second try to post, 1st one didn’t come through (?)
The numbers should track the population.
We know that the risk of new secondary infection clusters (self-sustaining) is a function of infected travellers coming in from the primary infection area (Wuhan). Ref: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022426v1
We know what the most probable / most dense traveller flow destinations of such infected travellers. Ref: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479v1
So, the actual number of infected as a percentage of the population should track this with a delay. Most people are now only tracking the absolute number, not the population %. Example: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
We know that it is highly likely, that a great number of infected are asymptomatic and ONLY symptomatic are screened in destination countries . Ref: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.13.20022707v1.full.pdf
And we know that it is likely that the disease can spread in asymptomatic stage. Ref: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200214-sitrep-25-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=61dda7d_2
So, looking at the EpiCurve, we should anticipate a rise in new infections after the period of asymptomatic infection + incubation, in the new cases, as a function of incoming travellers from infected areas. Compare: 
And, to gauge the relevance of that, we should track:
- The highest number of infected travellers list
- Calculate % of infected in population
- Estimate % of asymptomatic (and other non-diagnosed, low-symptom) infected
According the the world’s top virological epidemologist, Marc Lipsitch (from Harvard), it is more likely this will develop into a global pandemic, with a global infection rate estimate currently between 40% to 70% of world population becoming infected. Ref: https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1228373884027592704
BTW, as a curious side-note posted elsewhere on your youtube comments:
China is using Sandia Labs developed disifection/decontamination agent D7 that was engineered against biological warfare to disinfect Wuhan areas from SARS-CoV-2 virus (that's the name of the virus, COVID-19 is the name of the epidemic). D7 is patented and marketed by Decon7 Systems and China has bought all their production capacity.
Links below, Please dig into it:
does food packaging come from China? Who makes the plastic cups that yogurt comes in, or the peanut butter jars? How about the plastic wrap for toilet paper, toothpaste tubes or soup cans?
According to: Profiling the immune vulnerability landscape of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus, James Zhu1,, Jiwoong Kim1,, Xue Xiao1,, Yunguan Wang1,, Danni Luo1, Ran Chen1, Lin Xu1, He Zhang1, Guanghua Xiao1,2, Xiaowei Zhan1,3, Tao Wang1,3,+, Yang Xie1,2+
The Chinese may be more likely to be more vulnerable.
Direct quote from the paper:
"Interestingly, the T cell epitope intensities (number of binders weighted by allele frequency) are higher overall in the European population than the Chinese population, suggesting that the Chinese population may be more vulnerable to 2019-nCoV infection."Ref: https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202002.0167/v1
There are a lot of worried people here. I want to reassure you that the USA has a very advanced, redundant and capable disaster response system. It starts with the local government: county Office of Emergency Management (OEM). There are the sheriff, paramedics, health department, fire and ambulance and local hospitals. They are the front line. They all have websites and I suggest you read up on the local preparedness plans already in place. Then the state has their OEM, state police, health department, national guard. They can support the locals when they get overwhelmed, or take over the response when several counties are impacted. Then the federal gov has FEMA, DHS, CDC, etc. They have enormous capabilities and can support the state if it gets overwhelmed, or take over response if several states are affected. Likely all these levels will be invoked and working together. I know this audience is skeptical of the .gov, but I hope the response of these public servants over the next few weeks and months can restore some of your faith. Don’t be scared, don’t panic. Prepare responsibly. Have some essential supplies on hand and be ready to be more self sufficient for awhile. If your workplace has a continuity of operations plan (COOP) read it. You may need to self quarantine or telecommute. Test your passwords and RSA token. Kept your phone charged and on your person to receive any alerts. If your state has an emergency notification system, sign up for it. If you haven’t introduced yourself to your neighbors, go say hi.
When I went to post I was just sent to a CloudFair verification (I am not a robot). Is that a new thing?Nope. Happened to me 2x yesterday. It's something we're working on to fine tune as we battle the spammers and bots. Nothing personal! :)
What about the risks of exposure if you’re going to the gym to ‘lift’ every day? Athletic people are generally also social and more likely to be out and about, not semi-quarantined living alone and being sedentary. And if people would read this: birdflubook.org (click on chapter headings to read) they’d get a good historical overview of how the Spanish flu killed off the young and vigorous more than the old because of the cytokine storm their healthy immune systems produced. And ALL of the young adults as well as everyone else was eating a non-GMO organic diet back then. Almost no one except a percentage of the grannies were fat. Smokers tended to be pipe (intermittent) smokers rather than constant cigarette smokers. Look at pictures from back then; everyone did far more physical exercise and routine walking. What you’re doing is whistling in the dark - hoping your lifestyle protects you from something that in the end will be random and unfathomable.
Point taken - and I agree. But I don’t know too many women who can bench/squat/deadlift their body weight 10X. Pretty high standards! I bet our forefathers were able to do these things.
Rector
With all the focus on Covid19, its easy to forget there are other threats too. This year a second variety of common flu has begun circulating.
https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2020/02/amid-coronavirus-fears-a-second-wave-of-flu-hits-us-kids.html
A second wave of flu is hitting the U.S., turning this into one of the nastiest seasons for children in a decade.
The number of child deaths and the hospitalization rate for youngsters are the highest seen at this point in any season since the severe flu outbreak of 2009-10, health officials said Friday. And the wave is expected to keep going for weeks.
In Oregon, one child has died from the flu so far this season. The overall flu trend is downward, with a precipitous drop in ER flu cases in late 2019. After a modest resurgence in late January, flu cases dropped again in the week ending Feb. 8, Oregon Health Authority data show.
We live in an agricultural area, surrounded by farms and food processors. A large walnut shelling operation is nearby. Walnuts are cracked and meats removed, inspected to remove shells, packaged and sold. Unlike almonds which are normally roasted, walnuts are sold raw.
A Grade B dairy sits about 2 miles from where we live. Grade B milk is more susceptible to bacterial contamination and used for things like butter, cheese, and yogart. (Grade A milk is ‘cleaner’ and used for the milk we drink).
Is there a risk of Covid-19 entering the food chain and getting transmitted in this fashion? With the consumer preferring less processed food, the potential risk of the virus spreading seems high (higher than I want).
While that is a lovely sentiment cheapseats, I have to point out the response from those groups and agencies in the past dozen natural disasters. History doesn’t offer much confidence in their help either near term or long term.
This isn’t going to be something that sweeps in for week and then sweeps out. No hoard of reporters to descend like locust to file a report from a conveniently deep pothole. Its something that will take place over months and affect the entire nation. Government agencies aren’t prepared nor equipped to handle something like this if it goes sideways.
As Chris has said, prepare for yourself means you take your welfare in your own hands, shifting you from the negative of needed government help, to the plus, where you can help others. I’d rather that, than wait for the President to toss me a roll of paper towels at a photo op.
While members of the local and national government concerned with public health may have our best interests at heart and even be heroic at times (think about wildfire fighters), the fact that we have a raving maniac and proven psychopath at the top doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence. People aren’t going to be working at whatever their job is, if they’re at home prostrate in bed and half of their family members are also. Medical personnel will at some point either become infected themselves, or make the decision to not go to work in order to protect their own families from exposure (even though at the point they make that decision, it may be too late). Medical personnel aren’t angels, nor are they martyrs. You learn early on that sometimes you have to ‘call’ it when the situation is hopeless and save yourself.
If our government were prepared, we wouldn’t be getting the vast majority of our important medications from China and India in the first place, especially in an economy where a lot of people aren’t working that could be. (Labor participation rate is actually quite low, with lots of older middle aged workers who have given up looking for work, and lots of younger workers doing jobs that they didn’t need their expensive college educations to train for). It’s too bad the billionaires haven’t set their sights on starting companies that produce USA-made medications.
Now I see that Richard Branson is being asked to finance moving British nationals off the cruise ship and bringing them home to the UK for quarantine or treatment. It’ll be interesting if this actually happens - I was on the front lines after the hurricane decimated his private island, as well as the shacks of his laborers on nearby islands; he actually had the gall (as a billionaire!) to ask the general public for donations to rebuild his own employee’s housing and infrastructure. One wonders if they are rebuilt yet…
I appreciate your perspective and I agree that we have a sophisticated bureaucracy. They will mobilize many “EOCs”, purchase loads of unnecessary supplies, give many powerpoint presentations, and make many requests for emergency funding. What they cannot do is increase the number of ICU beds, prevent infection, or solve supply chain problems on a large scale. Government is reactive - FEMA shows up after the flood. Government is incompetent - depending on it is a risk I’m not willing to take.
If your not a little “worried” about the possibility of many people becoming ill, dying, or losing their jobs in a recession, then you aren’t thinking about the problem hard enough. Secondly, what’s wrong with “worried” anyway? What is the downside that you must soothe away with comforting words? What data are you presenting to ameliorate my worry? I like to worry - when it’s warranted and supported by facts. It keeps me focused.
Rector
One thing that is almost essential now is your cell phone but how long does your battery last? I have an old flip phone so my battery typically lasts several days.
I’m struck remembering all the photos from black outs or natural disasters where people are huddled over any available power outlet trying to get a charge.
There is a variety of cell phone chargers on Amazon, some with solar panels. Any experiences or recommendations for something in the $50 or less range? I’m leaning towards a multipanel unit like this
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07HRHYYL8/
Thank you, Dtrammel, for your very thoughtful and helpful posts. As a librarian, a special thanks for encouraging people to get a library card. In addition to using the catalog online for a quick question in-out library visit, Cardholders can use library digital resources like Overdrive and Hoopla to download and read ebooks and e-audiobooks on your device without ever leaving your home. For free. Now’s a great time to get that card. It’s priceless. That and a Netflix subscription should help keep you well entertained during isolation.
My understanding on this is that it depends. A steamer at high temperatures (boiling water) will clean hard surfaces but steaming is not good for masks. Food and other gunk on stuff will not be sterilized it has to be washed off.
... the Spanish flu killed off the young and vigorous more than the old because of the cytokine storm their healthy immune systems produced. And ALL of the young adults as well as everyone else was eating a non-GMO organic diet back then. Almost no one except a percentage of the grannies were fat. Smokers tended to be pipe (intermittent) smokers rather than constant cigarette smokers...