In the videos emerging from China the vast majority of people are wearing masks they are accustomed to use to counteract the air pollution that plagues their cities. These have almost no protective capacity against airborne viruses --they are mere fashion statements AKA “face diapers”. No wonder the Corvid-19 bio weapon has brought the Chinese economy to a standstill in a few weeks.
By contrast, N95 style masks fully seal the mouth and nose, and are about 95 % effective.
Yes, if it doesn’t make you sick, it will chill a while in you.
With SARS they found the virus stayed with the cured up to 80 days… Super.
But with SARS they were lucky. It started 2003 March, if i remember correctly.
And went out with summer. But this one started begin December.
And an outdated political structure.
This is dated and about a week old, but here’s an interesting investigative journalist interview with a Wuhan crematorium manager:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KFxCqV1fPQ
Some data points gathered from the video:
- After people die, hospitals are ordered to disinfect and pack the bodies within 30 minutes (though this may not be possible)
- A single crematorium received 127 bodies in one day
- 8 of these 127 bodies were confirmed pneumonia [CORVID-19?] based on their birth certificates [only 6.3% reported confirmed pneumonia]
- 116 corpses cremated that day
- 48 suspected [CORVID-19] cases as written on their death certificates
- 38% corpses were from hospitals
- 61% died at home
Good advice, except that my wife kicks me to the couch after I eat garlic 
Essential oils could be on your list as well. we should all become less dependent on antibiotics, but holy cow, when you need some, say for a UTI or something, you really need it.
I am a bit freaked on this issue after information came out that 97% of antibiotics in the US are from Hubei province. According to CIDRAP (center for infectious disease research and policy), US farmers use 6 million kilograms of “medically important” antibiotics in the meat and poultry industry. What happens here with supply lines I am curious.
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2020/02/but-where-did-the-spray-trucks-come-from/
Where did the spray trucks come from? How were they built in roughly a month’s time? What is the solution they are spraying and concentration of said solution? What is the second and third order effects of these chemicals? How were they mobilized this fast? All uncomfortable questions with probably less convenient answers. I wonder if they filled out their EPA environmental impact survey forms?https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=3-RqckJAulM&feature=emb_logo
Here’s an astounding analysis from Zero Hedge on the latest scenario analysis:
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/four-coronavirus-scenarios-bad-worse-ugly-and-unthinkable
I was thinking this would upset the economic climate - sure… I thought it would overwhelm the hospital and medical systems … But the more I am thinking of the big picture with this thing more deadly in a second or 3rd wave., I am considering investing a really nice lawn chair - stock of beer… some cigars… and take a front row seat to Armageddon.
Hey Sax, I’ve done the keto diet more or less and felt great. If I went too hardcore (close to zero carbs), I would get dizzy and lost some muscle along with the fat. In your comment, you say something about no vegetables, which I wouldn’t recommend. You can have a massive amount of keto friendly vegetable matter (broccoli, cauliflower, cabbage yum yum) and still stay pretty low carbs. Avoid vegetables drenched in Roundup if you can. It seems like the processed sugar and bleached white bread/pastries are the main thing to avoid.
For those, like me, who have been looking at resource depletion, peak oil, income inequality and off grid living for a long while, the name Sharon Astyk will be familiar. For those that don’t know her, here is a brief bio:
https://www.resilience.org/resilience-author/sharon-astyk/
Someone sent me what she posted on FB recently about this crisis, and I thought people here would be interested. It was in two parts, the first on her suggestions for preparations. (Which I will post to this comment).
The second part is her estimate of how the crisis will affect the American national election. She’s clearly a Democratic supporter, and gets a ding or two in on Trump, but I did find her thoughts on the various effects to a line closely with what I think may happen.
Sharon Astyk
February 12 - On Preparations:
Not looking to freak people out, but since preparedness is what I do (or used to, anyhow) I did want to talk about the ways that Coronavirus could alter things if it is NOT effectively contained in China.
At this moment, honestly, China’s level of containment is pretty impressive, and it is important. While I am certain the Chinese state is engaging in all sorts of human rights violations, in a sense the rest of the world is complicit in them - very few states are authoritarian enough to be able to shut down a virus rapidly at this stage. The fact that almost all cases are in China, and contained mostly to limited areas is hella impressive, even as it is also often appalling.
If and when coronavirus begins to spread substantively (something we probably won’t know for weeks, there’s a substantial lag time in the models) it is very UNLIKELY that the US, for example, would be able to contain it. Enacting the kind of travel and personal activity restrictions that China has would be much more difficult here. Independence and personal rights are the way to go most of the time, but they are a two-edged sword in a situation like this.
It is worth noting that you don’t need a lot of cases of coronavirus to effectively shut things down. Vietnam closed its schools with fewer than a dozen cases. Hong Kong has cases in the double digits still, but shortages and bare supermarket shelves are already a problem. The actuality of the situation and the anxiety level are only tangentially related. And it works the other way around - the Chinese central government announced that it was expecting workers in other cities to return to work. Economic pressures can reduce other precautions as authorities weigh costs and benefits.
If I were a betting woman, my guess is that the global spread would really take off from Singapore, which yesterday announced its first “untraceable” case - ie, someone who go the disease ambiently, rather than by travelling to China or close contact with any known carrier. That’s just a guess, but there are no travel restrictions from Singapore, and it is central hub.
A lot of people are circulating various pieces of internet wisdom designed to remind them that for most of the world Flu is a bigger risk than coronavirus at this point, and that’s absolutely true, but a little misleading. Yes, you should worry more about flu than coronavirus for today. Yes you should get a flu shot. But it is a an apples and oranges comparison too. This year’s flus have been circulating since October, the first cases of Coronavirus emerged in early-to-mid-December. A flu carrier on average will transmit flu to 2 other people, while coronavirus seems to be more like 4 - which is very high.
Annual influenza has a death rate of 0.1-0.2 % of infected individuals. Coronavirus has a death rate of about 2-3 % of infected individuals. Moreover, the death rate is higher in cities with very high rates of infection, suggesting that when the medical system is overwhelmed the rate could be greater. Another concern is that a recent study suggested that it is very hard to keep the disease from spreading within hospitals in ways we don’t entirely understand - which is concerning for two reasons. First, if medical personnel are sickened, that affects the capacity of the system to care for everyone. Second, it means that people dealing with other medical concerns need to worry about transmission, and may delay or avoid medical treatment which ups the overall risks.
My guess is we’ll know whether coronavirus is going to circulate globally by mid-April, but if it starts soon, it could be widespread before that. Or, it could end up being contained. No one is sure. Even if it does become endemic, it isn’t likely to be an endless thing - most coronaviruses don’t like warm humid weather. SARS and other similar viruses mostly petered out in early summer. The odds are good that we are talking about a limited period of time for this outbreak.
So what should you do? Well, not panic is the first thing. It isn’t time to panic. Trust me, I’ll tell you ;-). I can’t give medical advice, but I can tell you what I think and what my family will do.
- If you have medical care you’ve been putting off, get it done soon if you can. If you can’t or don’t want to, ask if you can wait a while, maybe to summer. Don’t actually risk harm to yourself by doing this, though. Be smart.
- I would recommend people give up optional international travel at this point. Stay off cruise ships and out of Disney and water parks in case of fecal-oral transmission (likely but not confirmed.) No one needs to go on a cruise. Plan local vacations and buy trip insurance.
- Get a flu shot if you haven’t, take a multivitamin, get some exercise and generally take care of your health. Wash hands a lot. It may not prevent coronavirus (except for the hand washing) but you’ll be a lot happier if you aren’t weakened by flu or other winter illness first.
- Don’t buy all the fucking masks. Seriously, the masks don’t work that well anyway, even the good ones. They are best for people who are sick and don’t want to transmit things to others. The masks lose efficacy quickly, and there’s a shortage. So if you do buy some, buy only enough for you to wear in places where there’s a real risk of exposure. Save them for others - no hoarding.
- If coronavirus starts to spread and you have the option STAY HOME. Especially keep kids, who may be asymptomatic carriers home from venues with lots of older people. Visit the grandparents for passover and easter by skype, not in person. Not everyone can stay home, but if you can, help out by not putting others at risk.
- If you have any power in this system, use it to help reduce transmission. If you are the boss, give your employees sick time and close down when it seems prudent. Pay them and help them out. If you are in charge of an organization, find ways to reduce social crowds while still keeping connected - teach your classes over the internet, let people call in to meetings, help people engaged in religious and community support from a distance. If you provide support for those who struggle, find ways to continue that support without risk - organize food pantry drop offs, or meal drop offs in safe ways. Leaders, teachers and community organizers should be planning NOW.
- Support healthcare professionals in your community who will bear a heavy burden in a crisis. They may need meals, childcare, transportation, someone to give a hand if they are sleeping at the hospital or working double and triple shifts. Be a friend and bring coffee. Help them do their jobs.
- If you have extra money, do some preparing - have extra food and supplies in case you are quarantined. But don’t just buy for yourself - if you are fortunate enough to have extra, plan to share. Up your donations to local community organizations that serve the vulnerable so they have extra to give. Organize with your nieghbors now to plan for mutual support and to make sure everyone has what they need. Know your neighbors and be there for each other.
- If you end up quarantined, life is likely to be more boring than scary. Make some plans for what to do. Learn a new thing. read a new book. Have some fun stuff to do with kids. Make sure you get outside for a bit every day.
- Do not obsessively read all the news and work yourself into a total frenzy. It won’t help. Trust me ;-). Honestly, we will probably all mostly die of something much more boring anyway, hopefully MUCH MUCH LATER ;-).
I’ll have some more thoughts on planning later, but for the moment the main rule is use your brain, not your adrenal glands to prepare.
Sharon Astyk
February 12 at 9:48 AM ·
One thing I should have included in my “guidelines for responding to coronavirus” is “don’t be a racist asshole.” If you are pulling your kids away when Asian kids come near them, avoiding sitting near Asian folks, bad mouthing Asian cultures, cuisines, and making jokes and stereotypical assumptions about China and this disease you are not making yourself or anyone else safer, but you are showing us you are a moron. And if fear makes you racist, you always were and deserve what you get.
So last time I wrote about Coronavirus it was about how to prepare personally. Today I want to think about how, if it is not stopped, Coronavirus might affect the US Presidential elections, because I think that’s a really interesting topic. I will add my usual caveat to any predictions I might make here which is “I do not believe everything I pull out of my ass is the divine truth, so neither should you. This is speculation and hopefully worth a little more than the nothing you are paying for it, but don’t go overboard.”
It is worth noting that at the moment, new cases are declining day over day in China, although deaths are at their highest rate. This, of course, makes sense, because most people that die from the disease would do so two to three weeks after contracting the illness.
It is possible that this is a sign it will be successfully contained in China. It is also possible that this is a sign China is running out of testing supplies or manpower to to identify new mild cases. We shall see. Even if it is contained within China, it is also possible that new clusters in Hong Kong and Singapore will result in substantive global spread. As WHO officials have announced several times, if it gets loose in a country without the capacity to deal with it, it could spread for a very long time. It seems not implausible that there are countries already having outbreaks that we just don’t know about - or we could get lucky. We just don’t know. I am not speaking today about how likely I find this particular outcome, just exploring how it might play out if it did happen.
So let us skip over the likelihood issue and ask what would happen if a significant outbreak occurred in the US, similar to what is happening now in a number of countries. And more specifically, what would happen POLITICALLY in a highly contested election year.
Remember, up to 40% of people infected with coronavirus have no or minimal symptoms. A woman interviewed from a hospital in Japan who tested positive noted that she had fewer symptoms than with the last cold she’d had. Almost no children have tested positive for this disease - which suggests either that children are unlikely to be infected, or that they are likely to have few or no symptoms and thus only be tested after someone else in the family shows symptoms.
A significant outbreak in the US is likely to begin with only a few cases, but with people who have travelled internationally returning home and interacting in the community for some time before the first cases emerge. This is, for example, how the British man who attended a conference in Singapore unintentionally infected 10 people and three countries.
The first effect of a substantive outbreak in the US when detected is likely to be panic and anxiety, and a lot of economic disruption. Areas where cases are active will close schools and workplaces. America lacks strong social supports and strong pressures on employers to keep checks coming, so a great deal of economic hardship is likely to hit.
Trump’s basic isolationism is likely to get played up here, as he closes down flights from one country after another. But this will be a “shutting the barn door after the horses are out” thing most likely, and is going to be challenging if the world is dealing with outbreaks in a large number of places at once. But while Trump will be good at political gestures like blaming non-white people for spreading disease and shutting down flights, he’s also going to be engaging in a very delicate balancing act, since he’s essentially running for re-election on the economy - shutdowns in China are already having effects on businesses and supply chains. The economy could easily stop being an asset for Trump.
I think it is a safe bet that Trump will respond by running up racist rhetoric and attacking non-white people and countries that he doesn’t depend on economically. And I think it is a safe bet that when people are frightened, that kind of rhetoric will gain some real traction. I expect us to see some serious discrimination, and could certainly imagine the King of “kids in cages” ordering all members of particular national groups out of public schools or public discourse (even if he can’t enact it). If coronavirus begins to spread in the US I would expect our already extremist and nasty public discourse to get a lot nastier.
I would also expect, if the US is not successful in containing an outbreak (which I think we will find very difficult given the high spread rate of the disease) that Trump would find his overall position weakened by this. He is, after all, where the buck stops, and his political choices not to fill or actively strip agencies that would work to control the disease are likely to come back to bite him. Moreover, unless the disease is contained, an economic slowdown and high costs to quarantined populations seems all but inevitable. Coronavirus is not a good thing for Trump.
This will affect the Democratic Primary as well, but how and how much depends heavily on timing. If coronavirus hits the US fairly soon, I could imagine it substantively affecting the delegate count.
All Democrats will be racing to answer questions and formulate a better plan than Trump’s for handling a pandemic. My money is on Elizabeth Warren (who is not currently doing all that well) to have formulated a coherent and practical plan and list of actions ready to go, and I think the contrast might serve her well if things happened early. I also see Bernie, the health care maven doing well with this, and probably Mayor Pete whose team is very good at leveraging technology compensating well for reductions in in-person events, as well. Basically any Democratic candidate is going to have a better plan than Trump because a. they don’t actually have to enact it, just describe it and b. they mostly aren’t fools.
I would expect some bickering over whose plan is better, but mostly solidarity among the candidates, because a pandemic outbreak will be an actual national emergency. Where this gets complicated is in the timing and the actual practical realities of life in a an outbreak. First thing to be cancelled will be handshaking events, arm in arm selfies and rallies. The Democrats may have to shift to mostly campaigning by media, often to people trapped at home with plenty of time to watch things. This favors the candidates with the largest war chests - Bloomberg and Sanders and possibly Steyer if he’s still around.
It will depend on when this happens. I doubt an outbreak could reach critical mass in the US before early March at this point, which means we will probably be after super Tuesday. If someone, probably front-runner Sanders gets a decisive number of delegates in that election, it might not matter hugely - his momentum and money would carry him through, especially if he gets the endorsement of Yang and Warren. If Biden tanks in SC or on Super Tuesday, Biden has been making noises that he’d rather support Bernie than Pete. That might be decisive. If, however, the outbreak waits until April or May it may not matter much
On the other hand, If no one seems in line to to get a delegate majority, that’s a different story and it certainly gives other candidates openings. I’d say that in the net, an outbreak is good for Bloomberg and Warren, neutral to good for Sanders (who could be outspent by Bloomberg) and bad for everyone else unless Klobuchar knocks Pete out content and gains Biden’s southern support- which I find unlikely.
The economic effects of quarantine and a global outbreak are likely to be good for the left-wing of the party. They are the ones focused on ensuring health care to everyone. They are the ones who want to be sure everyone eats and no one gets kicked out because they can’t pay rent. In a crisis, Democratic socialism and its near neighbor Warrenism are likely to look extremely good. The moderates will be arguing that only they can get the economy back on track afterwards, but most people will care more about now. Moreover the mild strain of isolationism of the “we’re all in this together and let’s prioritize American needs” that underlies Sanders and Warren’s rhetoric is likely to play well whether it should or not when anxieties about the contaminated “other” are a factor.
But there’s another issue here besides the political implications in general. And that’s the actual disease. All politicians spend their time shaking hands and getting close to people. They spend their time and energy at large public gatherings doing precisely the things that are most likely to get someone infected. The disease can float around with minimal evidence for a while, so the other question of how this could affect things is by actual candidates becoming ill and either unable to campaign or incapacitated.
Any candidate will have to suspend campaigning for several weeks if they get sick. That could be critical in March and April depending on delegate counts. Any candidate is vulnerable as long as they are actively campaigning. Moreover, Biden, Bloomberg, Sanders, Warren and Klobuchar (ok, she’s 59, but close enough) are all in the age range of over-60 folks who have a much higher risk of a severe or critical or even fatal case, and at a minimum, longer recovery times. Only Mayor Pete, of the major candidates is young enough that the odds are in his favor of shaking it off (and we should remember that the disease has been critical in some younger people, this is just about odds.)
If coronavirus is widespread and candidates get sick, this could literally shake things up. All the older candidates are going to want to select a much-younger VP and early on. Sanders and Biden are probably the most at-risk (although Warren isn’t that much younger the critical cases are disproportionately male.) It is also worth noting that Trump and Pence are both in the critical age range, but they simply do a lot less hand shaking. Still a lot of things could happen if a candidate gets sick, and all of them have a higher than average risk. This is a wild-card.
It should be obvious that no one wants to see coronavirus widespread in the US. It should also be obvious that it is a hard disease to contain. My guess is that an outbreak will ultimately make it more likely that a Democratic candidate will win, but also make it much harder to have a conventional election. I would watch for a lot of spoilers and some new precedents to be set. I will go out on a limb here and say that if a significant outbreak happened soon, I could imagine it revitalizing Warren’s campaign. Sick people want a Mom to take care of them, and Warren is both practical and motherly in that respect.(I should say this is not a partisan statement, I currently think there’s little hope for Warren.) At a minimum, we will be living in interesting times.
thc0655, I don’t have a link handy, but I was watching a YouTube video on ADVChina’s channel (https://www.youtube.com/user/churchillcustoms) and they were suggesting that the spraying was actually a common scene in much of China (including Wuhan) and they typically are spraying some kind of pesticide meant to kill roaches and rats (a big problem in many parts).
There’s no way to know if they are spraying their usual pesticide or actually some kind of antiviral agent, but in the same video they shared a clip showing cockroaches coming into an apartment from the water/sewer pipes and dying in the apartment immediately after a heavy neighborhood spraying.
My take on it is that, chances are, they are just throwing everything at the problem that they have at their disposal at this point with or without any evidence it will actually result in suppressing the virus spread.
No Carrots,
or Beets,
or Potatoes,
or Onions,
or Jicama,
or Rice,
or Corn,
or Apples
or Mangoes,
or Oats,
or Quinoa,
or Wild Rice,
or Squash,
or Sweet Potatoes,
or Bananas,
or Peas,
or Beans,
or Lentils,
or Chickpeas,
or Amaranth,
or . . . or . . . or . . .
ANY of that good healthy vegetable/fruit thing, you know,
it’s all got those DEADLY CARBS in them, so
don’t kill yourself eating those healthy fruits & vegetables,
you know.
Hi Dave, good advice about staying happy if possible. I would point out though, there are plenty examples of cranky pissed off old bastards with whiskey and cigars living into their 90’s and beyond. In the end, your genetics either suck or they don’t. Many of us will have to walk through the fire and some of us will die right next to our useless bottles of vitamins and elderberry syrup.
Disposable Respirators & Masks
https://www.mscdirect.com/browse/tn/Safety/Disposable-Respirators-Masks?navid=4287922739+4288189794&searchterm=n95+mask Supplies are getting expensiveI was born BP, that is, before plastics. My parents were adults in the 1930s. Recycle or go without. I remember my Mom rinsing out plastic bags from the grocery store and hanging them to dry on the clothesline, flapping in the breeze. There was the rubber band later twist tie, drawer in the kitchen. Later in life, used to laugh with friends about absurd parental habits. Well, what goes around comes around. Youall got some space for a clothesline?
There are looming global food shortages. The price of beans (in a country which grows them) has rocketed 10% in the past 3 months. USDA is reporting corn harvest as ‘viable’ under feet of snow, with no guarantee if it could be harvested this spring. Or if it is any good. Some corn is not even acceptable to the grain buyers.
Given that this is a perfect pretext for martial law, I suspect that there may not be a 2020 US election for public health reasons (virus) or public safety reasons (food riots).
Hopefully I watch too many apocalypse videos and am wrong.
I couldn’t find the post, but someone mentioned that what they are spraying is the disinfectant “D7”
https://www.allsafeindustries.com/d7-multi-use-disinfectant-decontaminant-30-gallon-kit.aspx
Apparently China bought the entire output of the company and has been spraying it there.
You forgot Wheat, the most evil of all ( excepting high fructose corn syrup.)
Reading the articles, it appears this has hydrogen peroxide, H2O2 as the base ingredient.
I’m AP (after plastics) but I totally do those things! I have a big twist tie and rubber band collection. I reuse plastic bags until they are too gross to keep. Why would I pay for Saran Wrap?