BTW @brian60221 - I think we can forgo any search for the unknowns. We have all 5 Beaver County ESU listed in the Communications List accounted for.
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It wasnât directed at you.
It was directedâŠgenerallyâŠin general.
Multiple people have been using the bullet hitting the bleacher for trying to calculate trajectories.
Thereâs zero evidence that itâs the same bullet. It would just be a theory to assume so.
If it is the same bullet, thereâs zero evidence that the bullet didnât have some type of deflection occurring after striking Trumpâs ear. It would just be a theory to assume anything past the knowledge that a bullet grazed Trumpâs ear.
Thatâs why when I look at the bullet that hit Trump: I donât use any other possible bullet strikes to calculate where it could have come from. I only check to see if itâs possible for a bullet fired from that location to strike Trumpâs ear and whether the distance makes sense with the audio.
One other point to consider is Trumpâs head turn. Because of that, the trajectory can be roughly backtracked to a general cone of origin.
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I already did it.
The body cam officer is not looking at the window when shots are fired. He starts running back to the car immediately before shot 1 goes out, after he looks at the third window himself.
I lined it up from a synced image with the Stewert video and original audio after the shots.
I confirmed it with a synced image with the Stewert video and original audio before the shots.
There is no video of the 3rd window at the times shots 1-3 are fired.
Gee, no wonder there is no audio for that body cam. Officer would look super sus taking off running before actual shot 1.
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I think @sgt-raven already said some time ago that people should distinguish between a hypothesis and a theory. A theory is a thing built on proven hypotheses.
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The word âtheoryâ has multiple definitions, including a scientific explanation and a general idea.
- General idea
A theory can also be an idea or set of ideas that is intended to explain facts or events. For example, a political theory is an ethical theory about the law and government.
- In everyday use
In everyday use, âtheoryâ can also mean an untested hunch or guess without supporting evidence.
We arenât in a lab. Iâll use theory how I want.
One thing this image does prove is that the red glow in window 3 was not from the barn. For this to even be considered means that the video was taken at the western edge of building 6, which it was not. More in the middle, eastern side of the building. The reflection angles off the barn do not match as a source of the redness in window 3.
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offtheback, do I understand you right that you wâd like to correlate the filtered shot 4 signals with the filtered audio track between 15 and 35 seconds?
Sorry, Sir. But even if you like many others disrespect the subject of this thread, it is still audio analysis, not general ideas.
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I accept your answer.
I think we are now 90% in agreement with hypothesis about shots coming from window 3 and simply at this moment disagree with the fact that there is video evidence caught on the body cam BWC2-122110 with a smoking gun.
Since there is only one truth, hopefully we can all find out at a later stage what really happend.
Thereâs a time and place for scientific accuracy, but to date, we have received multiple different versions of various sets of âfactsâ, things are being changed constantly, new information is added, etcâŠ
So for now, it seems fine for people to be creative and think outside the box in general, unless there is actual contradictory evidence or zero reason to make an assumption.
Example: Sniper that left trying to initially insinuate that he spotted Crooks on a table when he left. Well, he didnât. Because Crooks was at the vendors at that time. But it was real nice for them to leave that out there for awhile as if it was Crooks.
I share some of your concern. So let me give you some hard data to use in your critiques. I can measure this because I have a CAD drawing of the site from which to make these measurements.
The distance from the AGR building to Trump is 450â and then from Trump to the rear corner of the bleacher is 80â. if Trumpâs ear is the fulcrum of a see-saw⊠moving the right (bleacher) side 1" moves the back projection (left side of the see-saw) 5.525". So you can use 5.525 as a multiplier on any error you suspect in either Trumps ear position or in the bleacher hit position. If Trump is 1" lower and the hit at the bleacher 1" higher, then you have an 11" error when you back trace the bullet. It is very probable our models are off by that much or more.
Likewise, even if the models are right, but the bullet trajectory is altered by 1" by hitting Trumpâs ear, then the back projection is again off by 5.5". I can easily believe that the bullet could have tumbled after hitting Trumps ear and the trajectory altered 1" maybe 2" at the most. But it seems unlikely in my mind that the tiny soft tissue hit would deviate a trajectory of a bullet traveling at 2500+ ft/sec more than an 1" or 2" in 80 feet.
You can extrapolate the 5.5 multiplier to what every number you believe the models might be off. For example, if you believe the Trump/bleacher positions are off 1 foot, then the back trace is off by 5.5 feet. But there is still a range of certainty where you can trust the models to exclude the impossible. They certainly exclude the water tower and the three open windows. I believe they also exclude the 2nd shooter in the canopy (the canopy over the entry to AGR) and a shooter from the roof immediately behind Crooks if the shooter was next to the 2 story window. The models are good enough to put those to rest.
I believe they also exclude a shooter from the roof of the other 2 story building that is far behind Crooks, though a shot from a 2nd story window from that building would be right over Crooksâ head and is not excluded by the models (even though I think the audio data excludes this option).
So what are we left with: Crooks shooting all 8 shots or a 2nd shooter somewhere in the facade below Crooks. Roger knows this. He knows, if there is a 2nd shooter, the shooter is either from a vent or window. He is sorting out the options for the community to critique and improve.
One final note. The plan positions of the models are much more accurate than the vertical height locations, since the plan comes from aerial photographs and clear plan drawings of the site. So left/right accuracy (looking down) of the models are very trustworthy.
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To be clear:
- The text message Woods sent did not describe Crooks.
- Woods didnât testify that it was Crooks.
- Nicolâs CNN testimony suggested it was Crooks, but didnât state it directly. (Intentional misdirection or just assumed?)
- The FBI did state it was âthe suspectâ who was sighted. (Based on interview with Woods and/or Nicol?)
- The âfake newsâ went with it being Crooks.
I had it figured as Crooks based on Nicolâs CNN interview statement, but dropped that after the Vendor Alley sighting was confirmed accurate. Here is Nicolâs CNN statement:
âNicol thought little of the text at the time, he said. Nor did he immediately connect it to a slightly built, long haired young man he saw sitting below the window where he was stationed at AGR about 45 minutes later.â
The assumption being he subsequently connected it to Crooks.
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It would be disingenuous to act as if misinformation hasnât been purposefully spread by multiple people involved with the case, seemingly for insinuation purposes. Itâs happened again and again. Full stop.
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Hey all Audio Analysis,
I just came across this one. Maybe nobody has seen this one yet?
Bodycam BWC2-122110 with audio with all 10 shots?
@bumblebeeez, sorry, this video seems to debunk your theory claiming the body cam does not catch the shooting on camera. It seems at first sight that the flash comming from window 3 is shot 2 or 3?
I will need more time to analyse.
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Some of the evidence being presented is getting stranger by the day. Iâm more convinced than ever that Crooks fired all 8 shots. Iâll be there on Monday with another investigator. Iâll report my findings/opinions. Hopefully, Iâll be able to bring something to this investigation that has yet to be revealed. I will be droning, interviewing, and photographing.
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Hi @pk2019,
Yes, filtered. Otherwise we are trying to correlate crowd noise. We CAN correlate a filtered shot 4 for instance with the original audio track and it shouldnât be much different, as the crowd noise wonât correlate.
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Great work youâre doing with CAD modelling the site, thanks for that.
One thing Iâd like to ask: Have you also integrated the big red combine harvester into your model? Not sure but to me it seems that could have blocked shots from the 3 windows towards the stage.
Here is a screenshot from the RSBN livestream showing stage and combine harvester
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It also didnât clearly state if it was another car that âparked by our carsâ. Could it also be a motorbike? Do we know at what time the motorbike in front of door 9 pulled up into the parking lot?
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I simply donât beleive the legends around him. I donât beleive he searched for mass shouting. There might be lot more victims in this case. I cannot check what he really searched for, but all this is yellow-red category for me.
Good observation. I donât have the harvester in my drawings and I looked for a photo to locate it but could find nothing better than the photo you provided. So it appears that the line of fire from the three windows is around 10â2" above the ground where the harvester is parked. If they shot at the very top of the windows, it could be 10â8". Not sure how high a harvester is but it looks higher than that. So the harvester could indeed block the view of Trump. No wonder Nicol had to move :-).
Why is that harvester parked there anyway? As a side note, one audio analyst said the sound signature for the 10th shot came from a location where the harvester was, suggesting someone on the harvester took Crooks out. I didnât research that.
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