I think you will want your shooter to be nearer the center of the upper roof to have a trajectory directly over Crooks.
But you know… there were several cops and video rolling in the parking area, when the shots were fired and no one turned toward the front two story building. Remember boosted-cop and the cop who boosted him were there as well as the walking-cop who came from the power lines. We have boosted and walking-cop’s body cam. And there are some other problems…but I will see where the trajectory falls.
these cops and the audience were primed to look at the lowest roof and if you are standing on the parking of the AGR site you could as easily believe that the shots came from the lower roof and echoed against the wall of the higher building
and there is a direct line of sight/ear to the witnesses near the trees and RealDjStew
I plugged that location into the model, but it did not work well. Only five of the 8 shots resolved to a lat/lon value, and it placed shot 3 in the parking lot. So, the data rules out this location.
OK. I readjusted my grades with some interpolation fudging between grade contours. I put in your shooter’s ridge line at 1368.11’ and made AGR Bld 6 ridge to be 1352.69’. Hope I understood correctly. I put your shooter nearer the center of the 2nd story roof so his trajectory would be right over Crooks. I have Crooks 40’ from the end of the building.
What I get is your shooter’s line of fire is 8’ above Crooks, 7’6" above his line of fire by the time it gets to the edge of AGR 6. I then nick Trump’s ear and your bullet lands very near the back corner of the south bleacher, about 1 foot+ above the top seat. Which is 16" below Crooks’ impact point. The 16" delta is a stable dimension, the others are subject to best guess variables.
In my opinion, you should not ignore the following scenario:
Trump’s ear was not hit.
The second shooter was not a human, but a machine that automatically aimed and fired the gun. As a result, even a small hole in the wall of the rear two-story building would have been sufficient. Such an opening would probably not be visible on any video.
This could have had the advantage that live ammunition could have been fired in the direction of Trump without endangering him. Simply by choosing the position so that the roof of building 6 would have blocked shots between Trump’s head and the second gun.
We are almost in agreement with all points! That’s a good sign!
So maybe let’s take the differences one by one?
Having two points clearly defined in space only has one line, either it goes back to Crooks, or it goes back to somewhere else in building 6. Let’s find out together.
Crooks riffle position:
I once posted 39’ and then schroederized corrected me, rightfully so, indicating that the body is at 39’ and crooks gun position being right-handed is at 40’. See his post here:
and he corrected me again with this post:
Schroederized being a very accurate guy, can we agree on 40’?
Floor heights:
We put a lot of research in floor heights. Up to now nobody could disprove the following 3 heights:
AGR building: 1335
Trumps stage position: 1337
Bleachers wheels position: 1336
We are using very accurate KML Topographical maps from Land ID and not Google Earth. Please look at this post for details:
Please download the KML file and verify each point of interest yourself.
Bleachers:
Please have a look at the drawing from schroederized. The impact point is at 10’ 10 ¼”
I think we agree with that height. But please note that the bleachers are set on wheels which are positioned in the center of the stage. That floor height according to Land ID is 1336 Therefore you should add 1 foot to your calculation. Another 1 Inch higher comes from the fact that the bleachers are jacked up to be stabilized by adding wooden riser blocks and putting the jack under pressure. See video here:
That is already a lot. I will let you verify, and we can take it from there.
One suggestion. I see you are evaluating multiple shot positions, but we only need two: 3D line from Crooks to either Trumps ear or the bleacher corner (it can’t be both, because they are not in line). Then the only other line we need is the back traced bullet, which is drawing a 3D line from the bleachers corner to Trumps ear. If you extend that line, you will see it almost points directly to one of those vents in building 6.
very true. that is why I always say that his ear was grazed. Trump’s ear injury can as easily have been caused by the air turbulence of the bullet passing extremely close by his head/ear…
quote from this paper: “The eye does not see what the mind does not know ” (Attributed to D.H. Lawrence, 19th century English novelist and many others). The unusual feature of graze wounds described here could easily be missed in many cases. Although often subtle, this finding was surprisingly common once it was looked for carefully and specifically. The parallel abrasions defining this unusual finding were usually small (1/16 of an inch) as observed in 18 of the 31 identified wounds (58%). But rarely they were fairly obvious (3/16 to 5/16 of an inch), as observed in five of 31 identified wounds (16%). Among all of the 227 graze wounds examined in a decade at a moderately busy medical examiner’s office, a wound with this unusual feature > 3/16 of an inch might only be expected to occur approximately five times in ten years or in this setting in 2.2% of the graze wounds (5/227).
unfortunately, this work from 1980 is not available online:
it is very unlikely that these three ground level references are round values in ft!
I mentioned this many times, you need to be much more precise in these values…
use cm-level values for the ground levels. you can express them in ft if you want, but you really need much finer precision for these values…
about the blue line of 503.13 ft on the right of your scheme: could you also tell me the angle between the front of building 6 and that blue line?
what is the distance between the lowest point in the front and the vertical projection of the point where you put the arrow labeled “approximate bullet strike point at 1346.65 4 1/4 from top of bleachers”?
instead of the average, I would take the highest point of the left or right front corner and use that as a reference instead of the average ground level, because that highest point cannot be ignored when placing the bleachers, and the 3 other corners can be height-adjusted accordingly with the construction of supports to stabilize the bleachers…
Apparently a congressional committee has released information stating that Butler SWAT officer fired a shot (I’m assuming this is shot #9) that struck Crooks’ gun either preventing or at least slowing his ability to carry on shooting. Reported on Pittsburgh local news.
“That shot was about 100 yards away and it hit Crooks’ rifle stock and it fragmented in to his face, neck, and right shoulder area from the stock breaking up. Crooks went down but recovered after a few seconds and popped back up.”
I am still troubled by the location of shot 10. Some say it was from the south red barn (Hercules 1). The early TDOA analysis by greg_n suggested shot 10 came from just north of the audience. And other sources, including Trump himself, say the kill shot was from a much farther distance (from a covert secret counter sniper location), I think they were saying either 400 or 450 YARDS away from Crooks.
The snick-boom time analyses suffer from unknowns including the muzzle velocity of the rounds, the bullet weight and diameter which affects air resistance and magnitude of slowing, and the amount by which each shot missed the microphone.
TDOA theoretically should give a more accurate, more valid location provided there are enough microphones of known position. TDOA only depends on the speed of sound, the location of microphones, and the location of at least one of the sounds.
Could the kill shot have been from 450 yards and have been suppressed to the degree that it made no sound and shows up on zero microphones?
If we look at this video it seems like the tenth shot is loud.
I’m still uneasy about the tenth shot, but if it was fired by the southern snipers and hit Crooks in the mouth and went out the back of his neck, that could explain why he was relatively intact.
yes, because you completely miss the point…
when I set the path measurements unit to meters, the elevation panel shows the end point of, e.g., Trump’s ear at 410m:
when you use whole ft as the reference, you have a granularity of 30cm
when one would use whole meters as the reference you get a granularity of 100cm
this results in a 3.333 factor difference, which is huge.
as I explained yesterday, 1334.501 is rounded up to 1335 ft and 1335.499 ft is rounded down to 1335 ft, but there is a difference of 30cm between these two bounds…
that could lead to Trump’s ear being 30cm higher or lower than where you assume it is in your model, and the same goes for the shooter’s height and the corner of the bleachers’ height…
a vertical inaccuracy of 30cm is really huge in these matters…
e.g., if the height value of the corner of the bleacher that you use has been rounded up and the height value of Trump’s ear has been rounded down, that could represent 60cm vertical difference and that will result in a totally different backtraced location!
btw: could you provide me with the angle of that blue line in relation to the front of building 6?
yes, I have heard these entry-exit points previously, that is a very plausible option, but we still do not know or have seen any bullet impacts behind him.
the Spa Guy checked the roofs behind the location where the body was photographed and he could not find any bullet holes
We have to imagine how this bleacher is installed by looking at the YouTube video. When setting the bleachers in the correct position the wheels are at 1336. The height of the bullet impact is 10.854 feet according to the drawing.
Now they start to stabilize the bleachers and level it out by putting wooden riser blocks on the floor and cranking the jacks. We have taken the most conservative value of a height increase of 1 Inch assuming they start stabilizing this corner first and then cranking the other corners to level it out. Haven taken the most conservate value makes our simulation more difficult to debunk. Keep in mind, when leveling out the bleachers there is only one direction, that is up. Pushing the corner higher would put the retraced bullet even further away from crooks making even a bigger offset than 6 feet.
thanks.
normally, you could simply read that value from what you see in your model…
what I am trying to do is recreate a kml based on the values you mention in your overview starting from a single point of reference (the location where you put the man on the roof of building 6) and derive all the other points from that point of reference in 3d space, and in order to be able to align things correctly, I need that angle…
