So It's Back To First Principles (Part 2)

[greg_n]

@unhandyandy

OK, thanks Greg, I think I get it now.
…
Is that right?

Yes. You have correctly summarized the approach I took and the conclusions.

It occurs to me that you could exploit the movements of TMX and DJStew:

Keep in mind that we lack native precise location info for the moving recorders, and it’s no easy task to determine their positions through video analysis, but a couple of the other forum members did put a lot of time into doing just that and seemed to be quite successful. I’m not planning to conduct any further analysis myself, but I would definitely encourage you to try a variation on my approach to see what you come up with. The data that I used is all archived here: TDOA_v4

And here are some posts I bookmarked that you might find interesting and useful.

@vt1 showing refinements to recorder positions: ref1, ref2 and ref3

@offtheback reports boom time measurements: ref

@offtheback audio analysis wrapup: ref

[unhandyandy]

Why would they mention it if it’s not surprising? Does everything they didn’t mention have to be re-investigated?

[unhandyandy]

@flamecensor

To start with the Taskforce map: Crooks’ position is at least 2 or 3 meters West of the bloodtrail, and West of other locations for Crooks.

Bloodtrail? You mean the line through Trump and Copenhaver?

So you’re saying Crooks’ position given in the figure is wrong? What do you base that one?

[unhandyandy]

One other point. The position of the police cruiser just to the east of AGR6 would have made it impossible for it to record cracks from the roof of that building. All the rifle shots heard must have been booms.

I don’t think this affects your analysis much since it would just translate the booms you used by an additive constant.

[greg_n]

@flamecensor

Your equation apparently solves for Tdiff, with the variables b and h based on a gun location which, I thought was the unknown, for attempted solution.

Did you begin with such an important unknown as ‘known’?

I did. It seemed like to only way to determine the boom times for those two recorders that were in front of the muzzle, but very close in both proximity and line-of-fire. However, subsequently, I was able to find the NTD and “Don’t Run” recordings that were far enough from the shooter and far enough off-line for me to use just boom times for the analysis. So, that takes bullet velocity out of the picture. I wish I had figured that out a lot sooner. It would have save me a lot of time.

Is it possible that analysis can be done using just the crack-boom time differences and the known locations of stationary recorders? Is that the approach that you and @unhandyandy are working on? If so, it will be interesting to see what you come up with.

Keep in mind that smartphones are not designed to record extremely short-duration sounds like gunshot cracks. Whatever analog+digital filtering they employ is going to stretch that sound out a bit. For that reason, I always used the rising-edge of the cracks as my timestamp, not the peak amplitude.

[unhandyandy]

@greg_n

Is it possible that analysis can be done using just the crack-boom time differences and the known locations of stationary recorders? Is that the approach that you and @unhandyandy are working on? If so, it will be interesting to see what you come up with.

Here’s what I did for the Kirk shooting:

Debunking Charlie Kirk Assassination Conspiracy Theories

I did a similar analysis for shots 1 and 4 at Butler, and found the AGR6 was the most likely place of origin.

[daniel59]

@sonjax6

And as unhandyandy just reminded me, Doug Mills of the NY Times, no friend of Mr. Trump, took a photo that showed blood on his hand before he hit the ground.

The raw file could be used to detect a fake. This applies to the bullet photo as well as to the blood on the hand photo.

In addition, the red liquid on his hand could also have been squeezed out by him with his hand from a very small bag hidden in his cap.

@sonjax6

How would the out-party candidate get ahold of an MK-Ultraed person?

Again: It’s a big club

@sonjax6

That just makes no sense.

That makes perfect sense. It’s the same old trick that the elite have been pulling for centuries. They keep the population divided while controlling both sides. That way, the population is constantly distracted.

It’s a big show that earns tens of billions every year.

[unhandyandy]

@greg_n

For that reason, I always used the rising-edge of the cracks as my timestamp, not the peak amplitude.

Isn’t it also possible that the audio compression results in the recorded leading edge coming early? I’m no audio expert, but I think the compression algorithm works on blocks of time.

[unhandyandy]

I don’t consider your theory impossible, but you have to compare it in plausibility to the official theory, which in my mind wins handily. Of course there’s no arguing about what one finds “more plausible”, it’s ultimately a subjective judgement.

[greg_n]

I’m impressed by the approach you took with your Kirk analysis. Well done, Andy. And when the boom times were unclear, you analyzed all the possibilities instead of just picking one. Nice.

@unhandyandy

Isn’t it also possible that the audio compression results in the recorded leading edge coming early? I’m no audio expert, but I think the compression algorithm works on blocks of time.

That didn’t occur to me, so yes, I guess it’s possible.

[unhandyandy]

@daniel59

The raw file could be used to detect a fake. This applies to the bullet photo as well as to the blood on the hand photo.

If the NYT has evidence of a pro-Trump conspiracy, why wouldn’t they release it? You don’t think they’re in on it, do you?

[unhandyandy]

Your videos were very well done too. That takes a lot of work.

What is your expertise? It would be nice to have someone who’s actually expert in ballistics and acoustics.

[flamecensor]

@unhandyandy

So you’re saying Crooks’ position given in the figure is wrong? What do you base that one?

Crooks’ position in the Taskforce drawing is wrong by meters.
I base that on:

1. the bloodtrail of his dead body position
2. seeing his 8x8 pale/blond pixels on a Dayve frame, less than 10 seconds before Trump’s ear shot
3. videos from the West seem to confirm 1 and 2
   
   

[unhandyandy]

@flamecensor

• the bloodtrail of his dead body position
• seeing his 8x8 pale/blond pixels on a Dayve frame, less than 10 seconds before Trump’s ear shot
• videos from the West seem to confirm 1 and 2

1. He had at least 10 seconds to move around after his last shot.
2. I don’t think a single frame of Dayve’s shaky phone video can bear that much weight.
3. Do you mean TNX and Source 4?

[greg_n]

@unhandyandy

What is your expertise? It would be nice to have someone who’s actually expert in ballistics and acoustics.

Radar signal analysis. That’s why I was familiar with TDOA measurement.

[unhandyandy]

Are we the only two people here who think all the conspiracy talk about Butler is evidence of fevered imaginations rather than conspiracy?

Maybe Chris Mortenson has come round to that view.

[flamecensor]

@greg_n

s it possible that analysis can be done using just the crack-boom time differences and the known locations of stationary recorders?

That’s all I did with the 1 line calculator I wrote last year, but I cared only about the podium microphone, and finding only the range(distance), not direction or location, because that’s what Chris Martenson and John Cullen seemed to be doing.
So I didn’t know and couldn’t find a formula, but I made one that seemed to work, but I knew that muzzle velocities were being guessed, and no one was concerned about a slowing bullet.
In javascript, this is the distance calculating line:

d=ct/((1/vs)-(1/vb));

where ct was the time gap.
The whole javascript function was:

function C(tf){
vb=tf.vb.value;
ct=tf.ct.value;
vs=tf.vs.value;
ct=ct/100;
var d=ct/((1/vs)-(1/vb));
ct=d*((1/vs)-(1/vb));
//alert(ct);
y=d/3;
y=Math.round(y);
alert(“range: “+y+” yards;\nbullet speed: “+vb+” feet/second;\ntime gap: “+ct+” second”);
with(document.f){
vb.value=“”;
ct.value=“”;
vs.value=“”;
}
}

[flamecensor]

@unhandyandy

• He had at least 10 seconds to move around after his last shot.
• I don’t think a single frame of Dayve’s shaky phone video can bear that much weight.
• Do you mean TNX and Source 4?

1. he didn’t have a last shot, because he didn’t have a first shot
2. Dayve’s video was very shaky, but single frames aren’t, and I can see that he was in line 1 roof valley west of the 2nd window(counting from east corner)
3. I think so…I’ve never known Source 4 or TNX very well…

[flamecensor]

@unhandyandy

Are we the only two people here who think all the conspiracy talk about Butler is evidence of fevered imaginations

I hope you and greg_n are the only 2.
Two congressmen, Eli Crane(R Arizona) and Cory Mills(R Florida) have expressed concern about another small problem you 2 have:
A suppressed bullet hit the bleacher rail 1/4 second before Copenhaver’s arm flip(as you know, 0.03 second after Trump’s “ohhh!”).
That bullet was behind the back of cornerman Dan, whose body blocked ALL angles from AGR6.
The dustball rolling off the rail was 45° offcourse, headed southwest, not south.

[greg_n]

@unhandyandy

Are we the only two people here who think all the conspiracy talk about Butler is evidence of fevered imaginations rather than conspiracy?

I think it’s beneficial to ponder all of the conspiracy theories and then see whether the evidence fits them or not. But what I’ve see here is that many of the forum participants get a certain idea in their head and then that’s all that matters to them. No amount of persuasion helps, so I kind of gave up on trying.